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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2017 (Jul 17 - Jul 23)

Rolf NB

Member
Probably should add that Dragon Quest IX has 5.3 5.5 million sales.

It could be possible to beat it what with it being multiplatform but the PS4 release of Dragon Quest Heroes bombing hard in the west (30k sales launch month) doesn't give much confidence about the relevance of Dragon Quest in the west.
You're using DQH as an indicator for western sales potential of an actual mainline home console Dragon Quest game?

....

I'm reminded of the good old times when Wii users were openly annoyed about getting Umbrella Chronicles, Dead Space Extraction, Chibi Fifa etc pp instead of the real game they wanted.

This is like that. Only more.


edit: <50 k for DQH 1&2 NSW before dropping off Famitsu top 30, surely by all coherent logic the Dragon Quest brand is dead on the Switch and all further games need canceling /s
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Maybe they are making a stealth release on holidays with only 2-3 months of previous marketing ?_?

Also, are you counting MH Stories (EU & US) and Dead Rising 4 PS4 version on your sales estimates?

A 2-3 months stealth campaign doesn't fit Capcom's usual modus operandi for major titles. Now, thinking more about it, if it's announced at Gamescom for an early 2018 release, that would mean more months to promote it, then increasing the chances of an actual announcement. I'll put it among other potential candidates though, even if (IMHO) the chances aren't still high enough.

MH Stories? The Western version is published by Nintendo, so I don't think they're considering it as their own SKU.
I surely forgot about DR4 for PS4 and the rumoured Street Fighter Collection. Revising my analysis

Ultra Street Fighter II - < 450,000*
The Great Ace Attorney 2 - 200,000
Monster Hunter XX Switch Ver - 400,000
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen - 700,000
Resident Evil: Revelations - 600,000
Monster Hunter Stories Ver 1.2 - 60,000
Megaman Collection 2 - 400,000
Monster Hunter Frontier 10th Anniversary - 30,000
Street Fighter Collection - 300,000
Dead Rising 4 PS4 - 300,000

*I've revised the USFII estimate since Capcom stated it ALREADY surpassed their expectations, plus Capcom didn't alter their full FY18 forecasts

Total - < 3,440,000
Sales not covered by the mentioned titles - > 860,000

Considering how several of the included estimates are potentially quite higher than whatever even Capcom may have forecasted, we're looking at more than 1 million copies not covered by the already announced games.

Moreover, I'm now doubtful about the potential of a REVII updated release / Switch release at all. You see, Capcom considers "new titles" games released in the current FY, while the ones considered "Catalog" as released before the current FY. Now, Resident Evil VII's expectations (you know, the 2 millions one) is in the "Catalog" cathegory. This means that, somehow, the original Resident Evil VII, not even potential re-releases (again, those would fall under the new games cathegory) has yet 1,800,000 units to sell-in before reaching the FY18 forecast. Is Capcom planning major discount periods, especially on Steam, somehow? Otherwise, I just don't get it. And we're still left without knowing what other title(s) could help Capcom reaching the New Games' expectations.

I'll see if I can make a SKU analysis as well, in order to see if there are unknown SKUs left, and how many in the case.
 

ggx2ac

Member
You're using DQH as an indicator for western sales potential of an actual mainline home console Dragon Quest game?

....

I'm reminded of the good old times when Wii users were openly annoyed about getting Umbrella Chronicles, Dead Space Extraction, Chibi Fifa etc pp instead of the real game they wanted.

This is like that. Only more.


edit: <50 k for DQH 1&2 NSW before dropping off Famitsu top 30, surely by all coherent logic the Dragon Quest brand is dead on the Switch and all further games need canceling /s

What other indicators can we use since the last mainline entry (non-remake) released in the west in 2009?

The thing with Dragon Quest is that it's hard to see what appeal there is for it in the west. There's a reason it sells to the mainstream in Japan, it's not like other JRPGs where there's a hardcore fanbase. It just sells very well to the mainstream which by the retailer reports earlier in the thread indicate that the 3DS version of DQXI will outsell the PS4 version.

I cannot see any mainstream appeal for Dragon Quest in the west, it's like walking up to a person with a copy of Call of Duty in one hand and DQXI in the other, which do you expect would resonate more with that person to choose?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Actually, speaking of SKU analysis, a clarification: by looking a bit deeper into Capcom's Q1 financial presentation, I'm now pretty convinced that the 1 SKU = 1 region theory exposed earlier is wrong.

pdf_26.png


In Q1, they release three SKUs with a retail release and four SKUs that were digital only games. That brings the total up to 7 SKUs released in FY18 Q1. And those 7 SKUs are part of the 37 SKUs' forecast for the entire fiscal year, made of 33 retail+digital games and 4 digital-only games (curiously enough, all already released before June 30th, 2017). So, we're left with 30 SKUs of retail+digital games left to guess. Oh, what joy.

Also, there's still this mistery about which games did they release to fill up the 7 SKUs for Q1, something is missing. Correct me if I'm wrong

Package Total

Wii/Wii U/Switch - Ultra Street Fighter II
PS3/PS4 - unknown SKU
Xbox 360/Xbox One - unknown SKU

Full-game download

PC/PS4/Xbox One - The Disney Afternoon Collection - 3 SKUs

Thus, we're missing one digital SKU and we just don't know what could fit the bill for those games on Sony/MS platforms. Maybe a budget re-release...? I'll check better later.
 
It's exactly that. For example 400k digital would mean almost no revenue (about 3%) left for dlc and no CEs sold with that NPD figure. This is why you should only directly compare numbers we actually have.

Now thats a Tales from my Ass number.
20-30% is the industry standard according to numerous publishers. Its a safe and validated assumption to make these days.
 

Fiendcode

Member
Now thats a Tales from my Ass number.
20-30% is the industry standard according to numerous publishers. Its a safe and validated assumption to make these days.
I was using the 54% NPD revenue increase and taking a $59.99 standard pricepoint. Yes it's also not a perfect analysis and you have to make some assumptions to get there, but it's still more grounded than magically adding 20-30% to your favorite games when it suits your fanboy argument. And it was only an example to illustrate why we shouldn't make up numbers but use the ones we have.
 
So if the 40/60 split ends up true for the overall sales, I would expect something like 800k PS4 and 1.2m 3DS. Especially if that blogger is right about the PS4 version getting to 1m LTD easily. I'm interested in what the legs will be like for each version.
 

MoonFrog

Member
That doesn't make any sense. A bad business decision isn't a cop out. It's just a bad business decision. The question was why people talk about western sales as being important for such series. The reason is simply that people talk about that because that is where the business is going. Publishers are focusing more on the west because of larger sales potential and they are starting to de-emphasize Japan because even Asia is more appealing to some publisher now than the domestic Japanese market. Is that a good decision? Who cares, that's where their business direction is headed and hence that's where the sales analysis will go. If they fail and have to close shop, well, so sad too bad.

I mean, a lot of us here like the games these companies have put out and to some extent still do put out. I would be sad to see them fail.

That said, I don't see how "chasing the west" is a bad business practice. I do think it perhaps added to the collapse of the Japanese domestic stationary market last generation, but it is obviously not the only and probably not the main factor in that. It also hurt a lot of those companies themselves as they struggled to make HD games and make them relevant on PS360. At the same time, it was a wildly successful strategy on NES through PS2 and Japan and some companies seem to be finding more success on western oriented platforms again these days.

And it's not like "chasing the Japanese audience" provides an obviously better opportunity. Konami is a success story wrt pachinko but it is not like every company that turns to gambling or mobile finds success. There've been cases of money drained trying to get established on mobile just as there have been when trying to develop HD games and "westernize" the content. There is the whole notion of the red ocean and that the Japanese mobile industry is incredibly insular.

As for the "other" Japanese audience, i.e. portable consoles, Japanese companies were there during the PSP/DS generation, before mobile took much of its lunch and some still were there on 3DS. But developing for 3DS and Japan pretty much locks you out of selling on the biggest western console/PC markets and isn't even reaching nearly the Japanese audience it was reaching before. You also don't have all the new monetization bells and whistles to get more out of your investment that you have on PS/Xbox/PC.

So I don't going after home console audiences is particularly stupid even if last generation westaboo was an awful phase for the industry. They just need to do it better than that is all.

...

Notably, Switch has the potential to change this paradigm. If it sells well, i.e. significantly closer to 3DS than PS4, and developers make use of the viability of PS4/Switch multiplatform, you'd have companies hitting both the domestic console market and the RotW console market as well as they could. So that'll be very interesting to watch in coming years and would probably herald an even better time for the success of mid-tier Japanese games than we already seem to be in.

It also gives room to breathe without having to chase one particular audience as hard as your marketing and planning departments tell you you can.
 

LordKano

Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

Predict how much these titles will sell in the week (from Jul 24 to Jul 30):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 95k
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 75k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 700k
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 1M

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Damn, just noticed but I'll probably be a little too short on DQXI PS4 version.
 

Usobuko

Banned
What other indicators can we use since the last mainline entry (non-remake) released in the west in 2009?

The thing with Dragon Quest is that it's hard to see what appeal there is for it in the west. There's a reason it sells to the mainstream in Japan, it's not like other JRPGs where there's a hardcore fanbase. It just sells very well to the mainstream which by the retailer reports earlier in the thread indicate that the 3DS version of DQXI will outsell the PS4 version.

I cannot see any mainstream appeal for Dragon Quest in the west, it's like walking up to a person with a copy of Call of Duty in one hand and DQXI in the other, which do you expect would resonate more with that person to choose?

Is there's any franchise that resonate with the mainstream audience in the West with a distinctive "Japanese" aesthetics? It doesn't matter how we define this, the average audience look at Dragon Quest and think it's one of those Japanese games.

The only one I know of that broke through this barrier and goes fully international is Pokemon when it becomes a cultural phenomenon. All other surviving, and seemingly declining, heavyweights are western-centric, right down to race of the Protagonist. The likes of Resident Evil, Final Fantasy etc.

I like to think the western market preferences has shift considerably since 2009 in terms of aesthetic and gameplay appeal. No matter which platform DQ XI hits, I'll be expecting it to do worst than 9 did in today's age.

Persona could at the very least tap in on the anime crowd ( like Neptunia ), it also swing out of the bat with stellar critical reception, positive words-of-mouth from the previous game and unique stylish UI aesthetics overhaul. NieR has a cult-following of Yoko Taro + Platinum Games and good critical reception too.

What does Dragon Quest have?
 

MoonFrog

Member
DQ has DQ. Frankly I don't get why that isn't enough. It has an artstyle that speaks to comfortable and mainstream. It has all-ages story content that often breaks the video game mold and is, again, mostly mainstream. The games are good and also accessible.

It is weird. You'd think it'd be the sort of 'anime' game that'd do well. I can only guess something about game console audiences in the west, but...Pokemon is adored so I don't think my guess fits :p.
 

Aters

Member
Well, I'm hesitant to write skimpily-dressed girl with her bare ass showing as a factor on GAF.

You mean a well designed character with tons of fanart and cosplay around serving as free promotion helps sales? Sure. There are plenty of skimpily dressed girls in videogames, but there's only one 2B.
 
Lol, just posted this in the wrong topic:


A sellthrough of 65% of Splatoon 2 in Japan (source).

So Nintendo shipped ~1M copies of the game to retailers. Does this say something about the hardware sales numbers we can expect in the coming weeks? I don't think they expected 1 million people to buy the game within the first couple of weeks after release.
 
Lol, just posted this in the wrong topic:


A sellthrough of 65% of Splatoon 2 in Japan (source).

So Nintendo shipped ~1M copies of the game to retailers. Does this say something about the hardware sales numbers we can expect in the coming weeks? I don't think they expected 1 million people to buy the game within the first couple of weeks after release.
Well hopefully they am get to the 40k baseline they had in April and early May.
 

Kolx

Member
You're completely out of touch with japense gaming habit if you really think that.
Even a 2m prediction is half what the previous main entry did, multiplayer on console is not "making up" anything from leaving handhelds.
I'm talking about the ps4. People who have a ps4 are probably used to multiplayer. and I never said anything about reaching 2 million. The game will primary focus on making up the sales in the west.
 

ynwzh

Neo Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 900k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 800k
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) - 90k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 400k
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) - 120k
 
PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 800k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 450k
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) - 60k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 130k
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) - 80k

(Edited DQXI to more reasonable predictions)
(Edit 02-08-17: updated DQXI numbers, see new post!)
 

Alrus

Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 150k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 180k

[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) - 60k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 130k
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) - 80k

You expect DQ XI to only sell 330k over both version for the whole month of August?
 

Ōkami

Member
Both versions will sell more on their second week alone, 3DS version maybe even on its third week,

0 reason to think drop will be hard, game as been very well received.
 

Ōkami

Member
[SFC] Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride - 62.171pts / NEW
[SFC] Dragon Quest V: Hand of the Heavenly Bride - 62.253pts / 124.424pts (+0%)

[SFC] Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Revelation - 1.274.857 / NEW
[SFC] Dragon Quest VI: Realms of Revelation - 392.864 / 1.667.721 (-69%)

[PS1] Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Past - 1.862.065 / NEW
[PS1] Dragon Quest VII: Fragments of the Forgotten Past - 1.072.286 / 2.934.351 (-42%)

[PS2] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King - 2.236.881 / NEW
[PS2] Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King - 559.524 / 2.796.405 (-75%)

[NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies - 2.343.440 / NEW
[NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Sentinels of the Starry Skies - 602.856 / 2.946.296 (-74%)

Sure, selling less than 400k on the 4 weeks post launch makes perfect sense.
 

Mr Swine

Banned
PREDICTION LEAGUE AUGUST 2017

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 31 to Aug 27):

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 1200k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age [2nd month] (28 days) - 1100k
[PS4] Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy (25 days) - 165k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 190k
[NSW] Monster Hunter XX: Double Cross Nintendo Switch Ver. (3 days) - 115k
 
I don't understand why? There doesn't seem to be backlash against the game and a drop of that magnitude would be unprecedented for the series.

Welp, had a bit of a late night brainfart. Those are leftovers from a calculation I made. I have no idea what happened there. Damn, how stupid. >.>
Tbh, usually these games have a drop of ~66% in the second week, and ~50% in the couple of weeks after. In line with my FW predictions (see below), that would be a total of 800k for 3DS and 450k for PS4. I edited my prediction league entry with the right numbers.

PREDICTION LEAGUE DRAGON QUEST XI EDITION

Predict how much these titles will sell in the week (from Jul 24 to Jul 30):

[PS4] PlayStation 4 Hardware (7 days) - 120.000
[3DS] Nintendo 3DS Hardware (7 days) - 150.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 700.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI (2 days) - 1.300.000

(edit: happened again by switching 3DS and PS4. I'm going to bed. This leads to nothing)
 

Welfare

Member
Now thats a Tales from my Ass number.
20-30% is the industry standard according to numerous publishers. Its a safe and validated assumption to make these days.
FFXV sold ~1.8M with going by what was said in the NPD thread. Slightly less than 20%, but it is a single player RPG.
 
I was using the 54% NPD revenue increase and taking a $59.99 standard pricepoint. Yes it's also not a perfect analysis and you have to make some assumptions to get there, but it's still more grounded than magically adding 20-30% to your favorite games when it suits your fanboy argument. And it was only an example to illustrate why we shouldn't make up numbers but use the ones we have.

actual figures reported by publishers in the industry > your "maths"

Oh and looks like we did get a figure. Happy now:

FFXV sold ~1.8M with going by what was said in the NPD thread. Slightly less than 20%, but it is a single player RPG.


RE7 is not RE? And RE7 will have better legs than MH? like the original Monster Hunter?



I agree people love the first RE game. But what does it have anything to do with the discussion?

These poor attempts at sounding witty.
 
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