Media Create Sales: Week 32, 2014 (Aug 04 - Aug 10)

prag16

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to catch Wii U by the end of 2016, PS4 would have to outsell it by an average of 9781 per week (using Media Create numbers), this obviously isn't going to happen given the current situation

to catch Wii U by the end of 2017 (i.e. Wii U should already have a successor out by this point at the latest), PS4 would need to outsell it by an average of 6891 per week, which is somewhat more likely, but with the big games for PS4 coming over a year later, I'm not so sure
Yeah, and the longer the Wii U outsells the PS4 (looking like that'll be the case most weeks for another year or more) the more daunting that math becomes.

I said a couple months ago that I thought PS4 could pass Wii U in 2017. Now I'm thinking more like 2018... or never. Yes, KH3, MGS, and FFXV will show up eventually, but how far behind will it be by then?
 

Shizuka

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They are, but i don't expect them to sell more than Youkai Watch, Toukiden or Destiny that have a full or almost a full month of sales.
I agree with you about Yokai Watch and Toukiden, but I have my share of doubt regarding Destiny.
 

Road

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Tsutaya's predictions are no better than any Gaffer.

In fact, I'd say they're worse, because they can look at their pre-order information to make a more informed guess, but still put out that nonsensical list.

It's just a nice curiosity, like the Famitsu most wanted list.

They aren't selling the 12GB model in Japan?
No, it was never released in Japan.

-----------

Just realized it's been one year since I decided to start my website: https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/

Recorded visits from 69 countries. I can only imagine what is looking at the Neogaf analytics.

If it had ads, I would probably have made a couple bucks from all the visits. haha
 

shinra-bansho

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I'm curious what the PS4 numbers look like in your calculation, also what was the PS3 baseline after launch/at its peak?

edit: wow Xenoblade has a ton of used sales, new+used sales brings it to over 400k o_O
It was just a quick look at current LTDs, disparities between platforms and the average positive delta that would be needed to overcome that disparity. The deficit is similar at around 1.2M for both Vita/Wii U and PS4/Wii U, so the lagging platform would need to begin outselling the leading and outselling it by around 12K or so to make up that deficit if it were to reach parity in 2 years/100 weeks.
 

RalchAC

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You expect no third party support, but somehow expect Nintendo to wrangle a Youkai Watch or DQ game on Wii U? Seems a bit contradictory imo. I think Nintendo would have to arrange for some third party games to come to Wii U, but that's partly what I was talking about. Even if it's the more family friendly titles or w/e. Honestly, I feel most Japanese third parties have still been fairly non-committal past the PS3. Does Namco-Bandai have a single PS4 title in the works? They have experimented a little bit with the Wii U though (Taiko, One Piece, Kamen). I'm not optimistic myself, but I was just interested in opinions =).
Tekken 7 as others have said, and Dragon Ball: Xenoverse (or something similar?).

The next Naruto game will surely, at least, be cross-gen though. Ultimate Ninja Storm games sell miles better on the West than Japan iirc. Link here says UNS3 US+EU sales were over a million while the game sold like 140k units.

Tsutaya's prediction Top 10 sales Games for September 2014

1. [3DS] Super Smash Bros for 3DS {2014.09.13}
2. [PS3] Naruto Storm Revolution {2014.09.11}
3. [PS4] Destiny {2014.09.11}
4. [PSV] Toukiden: Kiwami {2014.08.28}
5. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2: Honke {2014.07.10}
6. [PS3] Destiny {2014.09.11}
7. [PSV] Legend of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki 2 {2014.09.25}
8. [3DS] Youkai Watch 2: Ganso {2014.07.10}
9. [PSV] Dangan Ronpa: Another Episode {2014.09.25}
10. [3DS] Dragon Quest X Online {2014.09.04}

http://mantan-web.jp/2014/08/17/20140817dog00m200032000c.html?mode=pc
Doesn't Toukiden launch in Japan in August?
 

Yoshi

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Yeah, and the longer the Wii U outsells the PS4 (looking like that'll be the case most weeks for another year or more) the more daunting that math becomes.

I said a couple months ago that I thought PS4 could pass Wii U in 2017. Now I'm thinking more like 2018... or never. Yes, KH3, MGS, and FFXV will show up eventually, but how far behind will it be by then?
Due to the games you cited and the probably early end of Wii U's life cycle, I still think the "ever" part of your statement is strange. I think, PS4 will perform similar to PS3, considering it's getting similar Japanese support. What can Nintendo do to push Wii U sales past H1 2015 (where Smash should still have some effect)? Also, I expect DQ11 on PS4 and not on Wii U, this alone will make a difference of 3 million units in favour of PS4.
 

ZeroXZee

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Translating the top 10 SW sales:

1º 妖怪ウォッチ2 本家 (Yokai Watch 2 Honke)(3DS)

2º 妖怪ウォッチ2 元祖 (Yokai Watch 2 Genso)(3DS)

3º ゼルダ無双 (Zelda Musou)(WiiU)

4º ヨッシー New アイランド (Yoshi's New Island)(3DS)

5位 ドラゴンボールヒーローズ アルティメットミッション2 (Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission 2)(3DS)

6位 マリオカート8 (Mario Kart 8)(WiiU)

7位 ウルトラストリートファイター4 (Ultra Street Fighter 4)(PS3)

8位 モンスターハンター フロンティアG (Monster Hunter Frontier G)(Vita)

9位 太鼓の達人 どんとかつの時空大冒険 (Taiko no Tatsujin: Don to Katsu no Jikuu Daibouken)(3DS)

10位 妖怪ウォッチ (Yokai Watch)(3DS)
Senran Kagura 2 am cry.
 

Yoshi

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Even if that happens, 3 million units in favour of PS4? Jeez...
Can you imagine a new mainline, offline DQ not selling 3 million units? Thinking about it, I didn't make myself really clear, because clearly some people who would buy a new DQ already have a PS4 now, but a new DQ on PS4 would at least guarantee that those 3 million would have a PS4 (on top of all the PS4 users that might already exist and do not want to play DQ 11), whereas Wii U will most likely never reach 3 million units sold in its lifetime.
 

king zell

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Can you imagine a new mainline, offline DQ not selling 3 million units? Thinking about it, I didn't make myself really clear, because clearly some people who would buy a new DQ already have a PS4 now, but a new DQ on PS4 would at least guarantee that those 3 million would have a PS4 (on top of all the PS4 users that might already exist and do not want to play DQ 11), whereas Wii U will most likely never reach 3 million units sold in its lifetime.
what?
 

Team Top Hat

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Glad to see Yoshis New Island doing well. I put it off as a cheesy simple game, started playing about two weeks ago and am having a blast!
 

Chris1964

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Can you imagine a new mainline, offline DQ not selling 3 million units? Thinking about it, I didn't make myself really clear, because clearly some people who would buy a new DQ already have a PS4 now, but a new DQ on PS4 would at least guarantee that those 3 million would have a PS4 (on top of all the PS4 users that might already exist and do not want to play DQ 11), whereas Wii U will most likely never reach 3 million units sold in its lifetime.
You make it worse with every new post you make.
 
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for DQ11 to be PS4 exclusive for Japan, Sony needs one hell of a deal with Square Enix

they have DQX on Wii, WiiU, PC(?) and soon 3DS

what are the chances that Nintendo did not cut a deal with S-E when the shocker thread dropped that DQ9 was going to a Nintendo portable system?

the made shocking moves before yeah but it still was for Sales

they broke the trend of hardware port WiiU+Wii

so before they make a PS4 jump they would need to port DQX to PS4 and Vita sometime soon even announced at TGS would be ideal

You expect that the Wii U won't sell 1.2mil in Japan with all upcoming titles?
I was kinda hoping WiiU might earn at least 1million more sales in Japan during this holiday season with Smash4 driving it alone
not sure why Yoshi thinks 3m is a never thing for WiiU in Japan
 

Mr Swine

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for DQ11 to be PS4 exclusive for Japan, Sony needs one hell of a deal with Square Enix

they have DQX on Wii, WiiU, PC(?) and soon 3DS

what are the chances that Nintendo did not cut a deal with S-E when the shocker thread dropped that DQ9 was going to a Nintendo portable system?

the made shocking moves before yeah but it still was for Sales

they broke the trend of hardware port WiiU+Wii

so before they make a PS4 jump they would need to port DQX to PS4 and Vita sometime soon even announced at TGS would be ideal



I was kinda hoping WiiU might earn at least 1million more sales in Japan during this holiday season with Smash4 driving it alone
not sure why Yoshi thinks 3m is a never thing for WiiU in Japan
Wouldn't it still be more ideal for SE to put out DQ11 on Wii U that has 2.5x bigger user base than PS4? I think that Wii U will be around 2.1 million at the end of the year if it manages to do 200k in December alone
 

Spiegel

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Shin Hayari Gami (PS3/PSV) tops 30k. Highest sales for the series

Launch week sales:
07./00. [PSV] Shin Hayari Gami <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2014.08.07} (¥6.264) - 12.585 / NEW
10./00. [PS3] Shin Hayari Gami <ADV> (Nippon Ichi Software) {2014.08.07} (¥7.344) - 5.745 / NEW
Congratulations NIS, I suppose.
 
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Wouldn't it still be more ideal for SE to put out DQ11 on Wii U that has 2.5x bigger user base than PS4? I think that Wii U will be around 2.1 million at the end of the year if it manages to do 200k in December alone
I am just looking as what could possibly help PS4 sell hardware in Japan.

I think the MMO thing might have slowed DQX sales by a good margin
S-E might be happy with the monthly subs tho

it was never localized for the west on WiiU so I am not putting my hopes on DQ11 being WiiU exclusive

I am thinking if DQX and DGXI went to PS4 I would have a better chance signing my PS4 under a Japanese account so I can see them getting sales outside of Japan on PS4 if the games are not IP blocked

not counting that DQ will make the jump what I am saying is the sales numbers is no longer a guarantee that it stays on the home platform that has the sales lead in Japan.

the Director went on record saying he want the next game on the big screen because of the upcoming 30th Anniversary - this could be WiiU because this is how Nintendo tends to keep a lid on which games are coming until the last minute or it could be multi platform like DQX

PS4 and Vita could have a decent chance at getting a port
If they work out an anniversary plan with Nintendo I am fine with that if DQX comes to the west during the DQXI is coming to WiiU live stream whenever this megaton comes


Nintendo should try and amiibo tie in this celebration it could be a good move for fans
 

dolemite

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1º&#12288;&#22934;&#24618;&#12454;&#12457;&#12483;&#12481;2&#12288;&#26412;&#23478; (Yokai Watch 2 Honke)&#65288;3DS&#65289;

2º&#12288;&#22934;&#24618;&#12454;&#12457;&#12483;&#12481;2&#12288;&#20803;&#31062; (Yokai Watch 2 Genso)&#65288;3DS&#65289;

3º&#12288;&#12476;&#12523;&#12480;&#28961;&#21452; (Zelda Musou)&#65288;WiiU&#65289;

4º&#12288;&#12520;&#12483;&#12471;&#12540;&#12288;New&#12288;&#12450;&#12452;&#12521;&#12531;&#12489; (Yoshi's New Island)&#65288;3DS&#65289;
This would suggest 20-50k range for Zelda Musou first week sales.
 

Yoshi

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You make it worse with every new post you make.
Not trying to make this a challenge:

If DQ 11 comes to PS4, I predict that it sells at least 3 million copies (same if it comes to any other platform) resulting in a guaranteed 3 million sold systems (because otherwise those 3 million wouldn't be able to play the game). Now, considering the PS4 is already at 660k without any jRPG released for it (and will probably get to a million before there is a notable jRPG released for it - remember it didn't even have a year's end session yet), we're probably talking about a base of >1 mio players who don't necessarily will also buy DQ 11. If even half of those people are not ones who'd buy DQ 11, DQ 11 would put PS4 at 3.5 million alone, not counting any of the other enormous titles such as FF, KH or MGS coming to PS4, too. On the other hand, after this year, Nintendo will have released all its big console-pushing games, there is next to no third party support, so I can't see them going above 3 million. So basically, I think (though have worded it so badly that it wasn't even what I wanted to say anymore) that DQ 11 and Wii U's scarce release calender will guarantee that PS4 overtakes Wii U in the long run.

All of this is based on the idea that DQ 11 is coming to PS4, but as far as I remember, it was said, that the game will be playable on "the big screen", and considering Wii U's worlwide failure and Xbox One's likely failure in Japan, PS4 seems to be the only option for that.
 

KingSnake

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Being Obon, it's resonable to expect an increase in sales for 3ds software, so Zelda Musou might be between 25k and 70k.
 

L~A

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According to my calculations, Youkai Watch 2 needs at least 45k/week to reach 3m before the end of the year. Definitely possible, with the holidays and all.
 
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Not trying to make this a challenge:

If DQ 11 comes to PS4, I predict that it sells at least 3 million copies (same if it comes to any other platform) resulting in a guaranteed 3 million sold systems (because otherwise those 3 million wouldn't be able to play the game). Now, considering the PS4 is already at 660k without any jRPG released for it (and will probably get to a million before there is a notable jRPG released for it - remember it didn't even have a year's end session yet), we're probably talking about a base of >1 mio players who don't necessarily will also buy DQ 11. If even half of those people are not ones who'd buy DQ 11, DQ 11 would put PS4 at 3.5 million alone, not counting any of the other enormous titles such as FF, KH or MGS coming to PS4, too. On the other hand, after this year, Nintendo will have released all its big console-pushing games, there is next to no third party support, so I can't see them going above 3 million. So basically, I think (though have worded it so badly that it wasn't even what I wanted to say anymore) that DQ 11 and Wii U's scarce release calender will guarantee that PS4 overtakes Wii U in the long run.

All of this is based on the idea that DQ 11 is coming to PS4, but as far as I remember, it was said, that the game will be playable on "the big screen", and considering Wii U's worlwide failure and Xbox One's likely failure in Japan, PS4 seems to be the only option for that.
I like the idea of a PS4 DQXI

but I don't think your reasoning makes PS4 the only choice

do note that this will be a 2016 title and if it is going to be a big screen production it should be under development already and the platform choice would have been made months ago not when PS4 starts to sells

worldwide is not the focus for DQ

1986 on NES (Famicom)
2016 celebrate 30th on WiiU.3DS w/amiibo support

it could go this way worldwide
 

Atram

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Maybe it's releasing when 3DS isn't feasible anymore? I don't know, but they said, they expect to play it on the big screen.
When the topic of Dragon Quest‘s future came up, Horii said development of Dragon Quest XI is advancing towards the series’ 30th anniversary, which is in 2016. He also said he wants to play it on a big screen, suggesting the game is in development for console (rather than smartphones). A specific platform was not revealed.
this sounds more like:

"it´s nice to want things"
 

RalchAC

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Not trying to make this a challenge:

If DQ 11 comes to PS4, I predict that it sells at least 3 million copies (same if it comes to any other platform) resulting in a guaranteed 3 million sold systems (because otherwise those 3 million wouldn't be able to play the game). Now, considering the PS4 is already at 660k without any jRPG released for it (and will probably get to a million before there is a notable jRPG released for it - remember it didn't even have a year's end session yet), we're probably talking about a base of >1 mio players who don't necessarily will also buy DQ 11. If even half of those people are not ones who'd buy DQ 11, DQ 11 would put PS4 at 3.5 million alone, not counting any of the other enormous titles such as FF, KH or MGS coming to PS4, too. On the other hand, after this year, Nintendo will have released all its big console-pushing games, there is next to no third party support, so I can't see them going above 3 million. So basically, I think (though have worded it so badly that it wasn't even what I wanted to say anymore) that DQ 11 and Wii U's scarce release calender will guarantee that PS4 overtakes Wii U in the long run.

All of this is based on the idea that DQ 11 is coming to PS4, but as far as I remember, it was said, that the game will be playable on "the big screen", and considering Wii U's worlwide failure and Xbox One's likely failure in Japan, PS4 seems to be the only option for that.
If DQXI was a PS4 game, it won't appear soon into it's lifetime. Dragon Quest mainline titles usually launch when the console is already quite late in its lifecycle. Look for it on the Internet. DQ7, 8 and 9 all launched when their respective systems where >4 years into the market.

Square Enix will probably wait for a long while before releasing DQ11 if the PS4 was its target. And before doing that we'll start seeing how they announce various spin-offs and remakes in order to build the fanbase before the mainline game hits the system.

Looking at the situation, I still think the 3DS is the safest choice if you want to bet on which platform you'll see DQXI. They've been building their fanbase here for a while.

But Square seem to be open to moneyhats, so everything could happen if you add enough zeros.
 

cw_sasuke

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If DQXI was a PS4 game, it won't appear soon into it's lifetime. Dragon Quest mainline titles usually launch when the console is already quite late in its lifecycle. Look for it on the Internet. DQ7, 8 and 9 all launched when their respective systems where >4 years into the market.

Square Enix will probably wait for a long while before releasing DQ11 if the PS4 was its target. And before doing that we'll start seeing how they announce various spin-offs and remakes in order to build the fanbase before the mainline game hits the system.

Looking at the situation, I still think the 3DS is the safest choice if you want to bet on which platform you'll see DQXI. They've been building their fanbase here for a while.

But Square seem to be open to moneyhats, so everything could happen if you add enough zeros.
Predicting DQs future isnt as simple as it used to be, especially when we take into account what happened in the last years and the recent producer statements. DQIX being the first handheld main game and DQX being an MMO show that SE isnt afraid to take on new unproven approaches with the series - especially when you consider that DQIX was first planned as a Action-RPG.

3DS seems like the safest choice, if it can handle whatever is planned for DQXI. But i dont think it will be 3DS exclusive - there will be a HD/console version(s) as well.
 

Atram

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Predicting DQs future isnt as simple as it used to be, especially when we take into account what happened in the last years and the recent producer statements. DQIX being the first handheld main game and DQX being an MMO show that SE isnt afraid to take on new unproven approaches with the series - especially when you consider that DQIX was first planned as a Action-RPG.

3DS seems like the safest choice, if it can handle whatever is planned for DQXI.
3DS XL has a Big Screen...
 

DrWong

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Like I said months ago, I believe - I'm not predicting - DQXI will be Wii U/3DS + amiibos in the deal. As of today NFC/figurines based games is a 2 billion $ business (worlwide) on Nintendo platforms. It could be a strong deals incentive...
 

cw_sasuke

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3DS XL has a Big Screen...
Which is fine and it probably will be on 3DS - but if its ends up being a 2016 game i think it will hit 4DS/a HD console as well.
 

extralite

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3DS XL has a Big Screen...
No it doesn't. Don't be silly, it is big for a handheld but it still is small compared to everything else. The Vita too feels small compared to the Wii U gamepad. And that is by no means a big screen either. It is just the biggest screen with buttons and sticks attached.