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Media Create Sales: Week 38, 2017 (Sep 18 - Sep 24)

3DS was a monster in 2011, but remember that those numbers were reached thanks to a pretty painful price cut. Switch can sold less than that but still be more profitable overall.

Of course. But it still means that less units will be shipped (or even manufactured) and that the install base for Switch will most likely be smaller than the 3DS install base was at the end of its launch year.
 

Toxi

Banned
Can you elaborate on what I said is stupid? Because so far this generation Capcom has managed to fail on their own internal expectations for Dead Rising 3/4, REVII, SFV, and now MvC:I. Devil May Cry is dead, Mega Man is dead, Breath of Fire got a mobile game that failed and is about to die. They're taking a huge gamble on Monster Hunter World by making it a console only game.
Wanting a game to fail just because of mistakes Capcom made elsewhere is some stupid shit.
 

Kimawolf

Member
It's not on a Nintendo platform.

This fact alone is a lot divisive, especially on GAF, it seems.

But yeah: without a MHW Switch port, Capcom will lose Japan forever, I think.

I hope to be wrong, of course.
You won't be. Nothing is pointing to it matching the portable sales. What will happen is it will fall well short of its target and suddenly a "handheld" version will appear for all those fans.
 

random25

Member
Very low sales for Pokken in my opinion.

It's nothing to go wow about, but it's pretty good imo. This is just an updated port of a year-old game.

One thing to look now is its legs though, to see if it can slowly bring more people into the Pokken crowd without the Wii U baggage, which still did pretty decent despite it.
 
So is it safe to make some assumptions about the Switches current production capacity?

Assuming there is no stockpiling for holiday sales (I don't believe this is true) would it be safe to estimate that their production capability is somewhere around 150k-200k weekly?
(Assuming stock to be distributed 30% JP, 40% US, 30% EMEA)

If we speculate they are distributing 50% of stock now, and stockpiling 50% for holiday sales, and have been since the start of september, then there will potentially be 2.4 - 3.6 million units available to the supply chain globally for holiday sales.

You mean additional units?
If Nintendo is forced to stick to their forecast for whatever reason then you can expect 5-6M units that Quarter anyway.
edit: that's wrong isn't it, more like 4M, but I expect it'll be higher.
 

WestEgg

Member
Wanting a game to fail just cause of mistakes elsewhere is some stupid shit.

MHW is the easiest target for those who feel burned by there being no XX localization. I don't want the game to fail personally, but I can't help but sympathize a little. I still have to believe Capcom will be welcomed back like the Prodigal Son by Nintendo fans if they were to announce some kind of MonHun support for the Switch in the West.
 

ggx2ac

Member
I'd wanna say that MvCi will probably have sales equivalent to a niche fighting game worldwide but the Marvel Vs Capcom franchise is anything but niche.

This is looking like it will be a huge failure for them, that it might even do worse than SFV on its first year worldwide despite being on more platforms.

On the other hand, look forward to Ultimate Marvel Vs Capcom Infinite next year.
 

Bruno MB

Member
So far the colossal flop named Marvel Vs. Capcom: Infinite is way down over Street Fighter V in the UK, Japan and worldwide Steam sales. Even if by a miracle it does better in the US because it is also released on a platform that is relevant like Xbox One and the strongest territory for the franchise we will be still talking about less than a million units worldwide by the end of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2018. Also, these games aren't known by their legs, so Capcom will easily miss they projections by 50% even with Capcom's ability at overshipping,
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Doubt anyone want MHW to fail...lets be real for a second.
I love Capcom for example and everything i have seen from MHW looks amazing...so if one of their titles has a shot of being a hit for them compared to the expectations its this one.

At the same time they have done alot of stupid shit and they give people non-stop reason to call them out on it. MH XX Switch is out in Japan and more or less translated - they just released MH Stories on the 3DS...so obv. there are alot of Nintendo system owners still quite invested in the IP.

I dont know why Switch owners should just expect to be treated like 2nd class citizen without speaking out. Capcom has had multiple opportunities to make pretty much everyone one happy...yet they always always decide to leave out one party in their release schedule.

Can it be obnoxious ? Sure...but would we even talk about stuff like this now if Capcom had just release MML2, Okami, MHXX etc. for Switch or in the west ? As someone who would have liked to get some of those games on Switch its disappointing.
 

fortunato

Banned
Of course. But it still means that less units will be shipped (or even manufactured) and that the install base for Switch will most likely be smaller than the 3DS install base was at the end of its launch year.

Of course---which is perfectly reasonable, to be honest. I was never expecting Switch to match 3DS first year, even after its successful launch. We are comparing first year sales across the two platforms but it's more of a curiosity than anything else---Switch is much more expensive than how 3DS ever was, and its first year positioning never aimed at the handheld audience (Zelda, ARMS, Splatoon, Odyssey... All "console" games; Mario Kart 8 is the only exception but it was on Wii U before).
 

Scrawnton

Member
Doubt anyone want MHW to fail...lets be real for a second.
I love Capcom for example and everything i have seen from MHW looks amazing...so if one of their titles has a shot of being a hit for them compared to the expectations its this one.

At the same time they have done alot of stupid shit and they give people non-stop reason to call them out on it. MH XX Switch is out in Japan and more or less translated - they just released MH Stories on the 3DS...so obv. there are alot of Nintendo system owners still quite invested in the IP.

I dont know why Switch owners should just expect to be treated like 2nd class citizen without speaking out. Capcom has had multiple opportunities to make pretty much everyone one happy...yet they always always decide to leave out one party in their release schedule.

Can it be obnoxious ? Sure...but would we even talk about stuff like this now if Capcom had just release MML2, Okami, MHXX etc. for Switch or in the west ? As someone who would have liked to get some of those games on Switch its disappointing.
The whole issue is that if MHW fails, Capcom deserves it because the writing was on the wall the whole time. They release flop after flop on PS4/xb1 and go out of their way to ignore Switch, a decision that confuses EVERYONE. If MHW fails to meet expectations I expect a lot of heads on the chopping block at their end of fiscal year investors meeting. Heck, at the last one an investor even called them out for not making Switch games. I can't imagine what their reactions will be if MHW fails on non-Nintendo hardware.
 

vareon

Member
RE7 is one of those games that managed to reach whatever the developers set out to do... but it's not the game Capcom needed now.

Are there any Capcom's big release until MHW? Thank god it releases on Janary anyway.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
The Switch market in general will be bigger than the 3DS one - hardware price is higher, games are more expensive, higher digital sales and the accessory market.

3DS selling a more systems wont change that.

I just mean the switch is hot right now, its a pokemon branded game and it got good reviews. I figured it would have done alot better, that just shows you how out of touch i am with the japanese market though. ��

I get that...but you have to see how much games like Tekken 7 or SFV sold in comparison. Pokken sales are very high considering it launch on WiiU not too long ago.
 

Ninjimbo

Member
Those Marvel numbers kind of make me nervous for fighting games as a whole in Japan. Pokken did pretty good, but is that the ceiling? Arms tapered off. Tekken disappeared. SFV didn't make any dent. If Dragonball isn't a runaway hit, are fighting games in danger of going away?

Speaking as a longtime Soul Calibur and Virtua Fighter fan, I get the feeling FG's are going enter another dark period.
 
https://www.dualshockers.com/sword-art-online-fatal-bullet-switch-xbox-one/

Bamco is saying they'll port over SAO FB to Switch if there's fan demand just like DBFZ.

I don't understand why they can't port those over. Those games will definitely sell better on Switch than Xbox One.
Companies asking for free marketing can eat a dick. Do it or don't do it, you either want my money or don't. Don't drag fans into a free marketing campaign for a late port and expect them to give a shit.
 

casiopao

Member
I just mean the switch is hot right now, its a pokemon branded game and it got good reviews. I figured it would have done alot better, that just shows you how out of touch i am with the japanese market though. 😢

It is still a rerelease of a wii u port though.
 
Will be interesting to see if the Third Party titles sell like these First Party titles on Switch. I'm kinda suprised at how high Pokken opened, but maybe that was to be expected?

Was hoping Metroid SR held a bit higher, but I realize it's Japan and it's fate will likely be decided by NA and Europe. Kinda nervous about it as it's an excellent game and if it doesn't sell well I could see it being a long time before another 2D Metroid even though I think it would have sold much better on the Switch.
 
The whole issue is that if MHW fails, Capcom deserves it because the writing was on the wall the whole time. .
How would they deserve it, when it seems like they set out to make a good game
Simply because it's not on y'all platform of choice? Because they set out to target a different audience for once when they made their fanbase happy for years.
 
I just mean the switch is hot right now, its a pokemon branded game and it got good reviews. I figured it would have done alot better, that just shows you how out of touch i am with the japanese market though. 😢

It only launched at 70k when wii u was at about 3 million, 50k is great for a port
 

Fukuzatsu

Member
It's not on a Nintendo platform.

This fact alone is a lot divisive, especially on GAF, it seems.

But yeah: without a MHW Switch port, Capcom will lose Japan forever, I think.

I hope to be wrong, of course.

Well people say this, but what does it even mean to "lose Japan"? If you mean that it will just sell less than the average LTD of a 3DS entry, then I think that's certainly possible, but it's not like it can't be a success in its own right even f it doesn't outsell the 3DS games.
 
RE7 is one of those games that managed to reach whatever the developers set out to do... but it's not the game Capcom needed now.

Are there any Capcom's big release until MHW? Thank god it releases on Janary anyway.

Okami is the only upcoming title for the PS4/X1 aside from MHW that we know about and likely the only chance to recover some face after a rather brutal year. The PS4/X1 gen has not been kind to Capcom remasters aside.

Well people say this, but what does it even mean to "lose Japan"? If you mean that it will just sell less than the average LTD of a 3DS entry, then I think that's certainly possible, but it's not like it can't be a success in its own right even f it doesn't outsell the 3DS games.

It means going from selling 4 million + to a max of 2 million with a more likely scenario of 1 million - 1.5 million. That's a lot of lost revenue.
 
https://www.dualshockers.com/sword-art-online-fatal-bullet-switch-xbox-one/

Bamco is saying they'll port over SAO FB to Switch if there's fan demand just like DBFZ.

I don't understand why they can't port those over. Those games will definitely sell better on Switch than Xbox One.

After they failed to even acknowledge the fan response to their DBFZ comment, I wouldn't even bother. Wake me up when they announce something new on Switch
or when LWA comes out on PC cause I gotta buy that
.
 

Scrawnton

Member
How would they deserve it, when it seems like they set out to make a good game
Simply because it's not on y'all platform of choice? Because they set out to target a different audience for once when they made their fanbase happy for years.
It mostly has to do with the trends in Japan. They took what was a very powerful handheld series and are now releasing it on what is (according to sales trends) not the most popular system in Japan. It all comes down to business logic.
 

Vinnk

Member
The whole issue is that if MHW fails, Capcom deserves it because the writing was on the wall the whole time. They release flop after flop on PS4/xb1 and go out of their way to ignore Switch, a decision that confuses EVERYONE. If MHW fails to meet expectations I expect a lot of heads on the chopping block at their end of fiscal year investors meeting. Heck, at the last one an investor even called them out for not making Switch games. I can't imagine what their reactions will be if MHW fails on non-Nintendo hardware.

I can.

Investors: Will MHW or a new portable Monster Hunter be released on switch?

Capcom: "laugh" Are you sure you want to spoil your last question on that? "laugh" Come on, we invite you to ask us another "big smile"
 

Toxi

Banned
MHW is the easiest target for those who feel burned by there being no XX localization. I don't want the game to fail personally, but I can't help but sympathize a little. I still have to believe Capcom will be welcomed back like the Prodigal Son by Nintendo fans if they were to announce some kind of MonHun support for the Switch in the West.
So console wars horseshit.

I can't say I'm sympathetic to that.

Okami is the only upcoming title for the PS4/X1 aside from MHW that we know about and likely the only chance to recover some face after a rather brutal year. The PS4/X1 gen has not been kind to Capcom remasters aside.
I don't see an HD port of Okami making any waves.
 
Lol Capcom isn't losing Japan forever. They have plans for Monster Hunter on the Switch. Hint: They wouldn't have released XX on the Switch if they didn't.
 

Minsc

Gold Member
Those Marvel numbers kind of make me nervous for fighting games as a whole in Japan. Pokken did pretty good, but is that the ceiling? Arms tapered off. Tekken disappeared. SFV didn't make any dent. If Dragonball isn't a runaway hit, are fighting games in danger of going away?

Speaking as a longtime Soul Calibur and Virtua Fighter fan, I get the feeling FG's are going enter another dark period.

I imagine the ceiling for fighting games is whatever the new Smash sells, right?
 

Laplasakos

Member
I wasn't specifically saying something like this in the Dragon Quest franchise, but more in general. Perhaps Animal Crossing...?

Portable 3rd came a year after and sold better than DQIX. Except if you mean from now on.

Capcpom stay losing. I kind of hope World bombs just to add to their list of failures and hopefully someone will wake the hell up over there.

Unlike MvCI, Monster Hunter World has positive reception so far, so i don't know why would you like to see the game bombing.
 
I just mean the switch is hot right now, its a pokemon branded game and it got good reviews. I figured it would have done alot better, that just shows you how out of touch i am with the japanese market though. 😢

In general expanded versions dont outsell the originals first week. It will probably beat out the WiiU version when ltd is concerned.
 
I don't see an HD port of Okami making any waves.

Eh, at this point, it just needs to be massively profitable. 400k for USFII was enough to be noteworthy and it had a brand new mode which means it took more effort than porting Okami. If it can get 100k-200k, it'd probably be a nice chunk of profit for Capcom.
 

fortunato

Banned
The funny thing is that Capcom will need to explain to shareholders and investors why they haven't supported Switch in light of Ultra Street Fighter 2 sales and Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite sales (450k units/above expectations/huge ROI vs. 2m expectations/barely a third sold worldwide in the most optimistic case). We know that Marvel vs. Capcom problems are not coming from the platform choice, but investors don't typically care about that.

Portable 3rd came a year after and sold better than DQIX. Except if you mean from now on.

Portable 3rd was also a beast, indeed. Nevertheless, it wasn't mentioned in the original post and of course I was meaning from now on.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
How would they deserve it, when it seems like they set out to make a good game
Simply because it's not on y'all platform of choice? Because they set out to target a different audience for once when they made their fanbase happy for years.

I dont see how MHW would be a worse game if they published MHXX on Switch for its western fans that kept the IP going for a couple years too.

My issue is that its always either or and politics with Capcom when they likely could address both issues/audiences at the same time.

Difficult to feel sorry for a company if they decide to leave money on the table over and over again.
 

Fukuzatsu

Member
It mostly has to do with the trends in Japan. They took what was a very powerful handheld series and are now releasing it on what is (according to sales trends) not the most popular system in Japan. It all comes down to business logic.

But that train of thought maybe isn't how Capcom thought about it. Obviously the series saw more sales on portable than when it was on the PS2 and Wii (good-selling home consoles of their respective generations), but thought it was too reliant on Japanese sales, and want to spread that out rather than focusing so much on only one market.
 

Polygonal_Sprite

Gold Member
Its going to be around 2 million with the SMO launch with a full November/December with much greater supply. I'd say most likely it would be between 3.5-4 million unless it's severely under supplied(>3.5 mil) or they drastically increase supply(>4.0mil).

That's crazy. I was counting 40k per week with a few weeks at around 100k for November. Can they really manufacture that many for Japan alone?
 
I'm wondering if this bomba might force capcpom into revealing a switch game or two early just to get some good press, I'd have to think most of the board wont be feeling secure in their jobs right now
 
Well people say this, but what does it even mean to "lose Japan"? If you mean that it will just sell less than the average LTD of a 3DS entry, then I think that's certainly possible, but it's not like it can't be a success in its own right even f it doesn't outsell the 3DS games.

"In its own right."

Investors don't want to hear that shit after these recent bombs. The same investors that pressured Capcom to release Resident Evil 4 from GC's exclusivity and to port it to PS2.
 
https://www.dualshockers.com/sword-art-online-fatal-bullet-switch-xbox-one/

Bamco is saying they'll port over SAO FB to Switch if there's fan demand just like DBFZ.

I don't understand why they can't port those over. Those games will definitely sell better on Switch than Xbox One.

What fan demand do they need?

How about port it if you want and make money or don't and not make money. Seems like a way easier strategy to me.

And despite the want for Fighter Z I dont see any 2D Kamehamehas on Switch right now do I?
 

jman2050

Member
The thing about MHW is that it almost feels like it just plain doesn’t matter whether the game is really good or not. That’s borderline irrelevant to the discussion because the circumstances around its release are of much greater impact to its performance.

It feels wrong to say that, but it is what it is.
 
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