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Media Create Sales: Week 40, 2014 (Sep 29 - Oct 05)

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
Rapidly cycling burnout would probably be "fine" if Level-5 could consistently come up with new properties to replace those they burn out.

They've managed to strike gold again with Yokai Watch, but given their fair share of misses along with their hits, I don't think it's particularly certain that if they burn the crap out of this too that whatever follows will be a Yokai Watch or Inazuma or Layton and not a comparatively less successful Little Battlers or worse a Time Travellers.

of course the next project could fail, as some in the past did, like cinderella rpg.
but I can't see the issue there. having a project failing could be a problem for any company.
the main question is: are they milking this YW and investing everything on a failing new project?
nobody knows, but if we are looking at previous commercial strategies and behaviours, answer is no.
why time travelers wasn't a serious issue for them? or cinderella?
because they had a huge hit with layton, where they were able to hae three successfull titles admortizing assets and engine. they invested the revenues in a crossmedia project that gave them even more success.
they investd the turnover gained in another crossmedia project, less successfull than the previous and mismanaged in terms of platforms transition, but way more profitable in terms of merchandise, thanks to the roy gained by the Bandai toys (thare are being distributed now in the west)
part of the revenues were also spent in Ninokuni, ambitious but still just a game, that sold over one million ww
then they decided to spread the investments on various experiment in additional new IPs in different genres, with cinderella, travelers and the evident "research" done with guild series.
with the good success of the normal project fantasy life. that is being distributed right now in the west, with decent results.
and without forgetting that across the new launches there still were decent or even better sales from the old IPs like layton or inazuma, plus the western sales, for which they got smaller but still existing revenues
in the meantime, they were preparing YW and we all know about its success

I think that their history so far demonstrates that they are keen in investing in many new IPs, looking for new success, and that once found a success, they shorten its lifecycle, especially for the cartoon based IPs, exploiting it while funding other new projects with the revenue gained by them

if they will get stagnant on YW while still milking it, I think that there will be a problem. If they will invest in many new projects, I think that some can fail but one could become another hit, judging from their past history.
 
I live in Japan, do you?

Of course there are adults playing Pokemon, but it is a brand targeted for a younger audience
But the same could be said for YW

Does living in Japan allow you to access socio-demographic statistics about the population of people playing Pokémon? :)

Pokémon is shifting towards an older audience (source is Nintendo, but I don't live in Japan so who knows):

04l.jpg


05l.jpg


06l.jpg


I'm quite sure that if we look at X/Y statistics, the split is even more skewed towards young adults. This is also showed by how much Nintendo is pushing the nostalgia aspect, with Megaevolution and remakes.
 

Takao

Banned
Isn't that data pretty skewed by virtue of it being from Club Nintendo? How many 8 year olds fill out surveys?
 
Isn't that data pretty skewed by virtue of it being from Club Nintendo? How many 8 year olds fill out surveys?

It might be, but then you would have the same issue for all games. Instead, D/P is more skewed (like, way more) towards the preschool audience, while B/W more towards young adults.
 

Arzehn

Member
That's known, XL already had that yellow'ish screen, og for life yo.

Ah weird... guess I'll have to reconsider my XL purchase.

You get use to it, or it seems to lessen, at least mine did. XL is much better overall, cannot go back to cramped hands and glossy finish

Maybe, I'm pretty sensitive to this stuff. Especially since I use my oled Vita a lot. Wonder why they insist on a warm over cool screen. I digress though.
 
Out of interest, any Japanese speakers tell me what's going on with MonHun 4G amazon.jp reviews?

A quick wizz through google translate isn't the most conclusive, but it seems to be a lot of complaining that the price is too high for very little new content over 4, or something like that.

Legitimate concerns or just early troll reviews?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Comgnet retail chain: preorder stats / comparisons, as of October 11th, 2014

[3DS] Monster Hunter 3G - 971pt + 319pt = 1,290pt*
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 3872pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4G - 2845pt

[3DS] Pokémon Alpha Sapphire / Omega Ruby - 397pt + 353pt + 93pt = 843pt

[3DS] Tales of the Abyss - 91pt*
[PSV] Tales of Innocence R - 47pt*
[PS3] Tales of Symphonia Chronicles - 119pt
[3DS] Tales of the World: Reve Unitia - 62pt

[PS3] The Evil Within - 63pt

[PS4] The Evil Within - 54pt

[PSV] Phantasy Star Nova - 45pt

[Wii U] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U - 29pt

* = Comg preorder pts from 2011/2012
** = Comg preorder pts up to 2010

Note: Comgnet's ratio between actual sales and pts has grown overall in the past year / years, and older preorder points are not as reliable for comparisons as most recent ones, especially if they are from years and years ago
 

Eolz

Member
You get use to it, or it seems to lessen, at least mine did. XL is much better overall, cannot go back to cramped hands and glossy finish


Yeah, if I remember well the yellow tint actually was a lot less visible on the XL after a while. Might be because it's how the screens are made and the product used disappear a bit after some time. At least you see it's a new product I guess.
 
(Why does the axis on those charts go to 300% - what is that supposed to mean? And how does a pre-schooler register anything?)

I'm sure there's a base of older players, particularly in Japan.

But I'd say suggestion of Pokemon, not just as a game but as a transmedia franchise, having the target demographic of e.g. 24 year old males rings a bit false.

----

Regarding prior Level-5 discussion, sure they've never struck gold quite as much as this. But it just seems incredibly optimistic that a company that's burnt out all its franchises in spectacular fashion, and seems to be engaging in the same moves again, won't replicate the outcome. (Past performance future performance caveat etc, yes I know.)
 

extralite

Member
(Why does the axis on those charts go to 300% - what is that supposed to mean? And how does a pre-schooler register anything?)
Maybe 100% is the average for all ages/genders? And I'd assume parents would fill out the surveys for pre-schoolers and other younger children. There is Club Nintendo and presents as incentives to do the surveys.

I'm sure there's a base of older players, particularly in Japan.

But I'd say suggestion of Pokemon, not just as a game but as a transmedia franchise, having the target demographic of e.g. 24 year old males rings a bit false.
No one spoke of target though. It is pretty clear that the audience grew up with the franchise and the (young) adult fanbase makes up a considerable amount of the player base. YW as a new franchise wouldn't have that many grown up players in comparison.

Regarding prior Level-5 discussion, sure they've never struck gold quite as much as this. But it just seems incredibly optimistic that a company that's burnt out all its franchises in spectacular fashion, and seems to be engaging in the same moves again, won't replicate the outcome. (Past performance future performance caveat etc, yes I know.)
I expect them to replicate past outcomes (I did so before YW exploded even). That includes both expected declines (which this time will start from a higher peak, start later and take longer to reach bottom) but also more new franchises in the future that will climb similar heights as previous ones, if not YW then at least I11.
 
Pokemon is for adult, Nintendo said, so you must believe

No, it is not "for adult". This is not Nintendo wanted to say with those graphs, neither want I said. Those graphs show how Pokémon is more skewed towards an older audience (while still being hugely popular among kids). Nintendo know that and this is the reason why they have advertised the last two entries hitting on nostalgia.

We don't have the same graphs for YW, but I'm pretty sure they would show a situation more similar to D/P than B/W. The IP is new, and it is primarily marketed to kids (which doesn't mean adults cannot enjoy the game, or are not a part of the audience).

(Why does the axis on those charts go to 300% - what is that supposed to mean? And how does a pre-schooler register anything?)

I'm sure there's a base of older players, particularly in Japan.

But I'd say suggestion of Pokemon, not just as a game but as a transmedia franchise, having the target demographic of e.g. 24 year old males rings a bit false.

There might be one 0 more, since a radar chart should show the percentage of people in age group that has played the game and is registered on the Club Nintendo.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
I'd say that is fair to expect L5 burning YW life cycle faster, as it is fair to admit that is part of their strategy, and expect them to invest the turnover gained in various new project among which there could be some decent success
GAF take on them is uncomprehensible to me...they demonstrated to be able to read the market, I don't know if there is a better company in the dedicated videogame market over thete under this point of view in the recent years, and for gamers they are among the best in terms of new brand created...

about pokemon, it is clearly a brand oriented to kids as YW, but it's not that strange that today it has also a higher target
 

Kikujiro

Member
Does living in Japan allow you to access socio-demographic statistics about the population of people playing Pokémon? :)

Pokémon is shifting towards an older audience (source is Nintendo, but I don't live in Japan so who knows):

I don't know what are you trying to prove, Pokemon is trageted to childern, it doesn't matter if there are more adults playing the game than before, because Pokemon as a brand will always be targeted to children, so saying Pokemon and YW share basically the same audience is not wrong at all.

Likewise Battlefield and Call of Duty are not the same kind fo FPS, but saying they are targeted to the same audience is not wrong.
 
There is also another thing to consider; while Level-5 burned most of their IPs, some of them were still doing quite well, considering productions costs and appeal in Western markets. Layton and Inazuma Eleven, for example, did 250k+ in their last entries (and 400k+ in the previous ones); these are not bad numbers at all (but of course bad if considering the peak of respective IPs). Level-5 could sort of revive those IPs (Layton in particular) and still do a nice amount of sales, in a traditional format. I'm surprisde they did not go for the collection route, as Ace Attorney Trilogy.

The only IP that Level-5 really damaged such that it is no more recovarable is Little Battlers eXperience; it was launched late in PSP lifespan and it didn't have time to fidelize a userbase, with its jump across platforms. One of the biggest mistakes was, in my opinion, doing the second entry multi with PSV instead of 3DS. The last entry for a poor attempo to save the savable and it failed quite badly.

Among one-shot IPs there have been failures and successes. The biggest bomb has been Time Travelers, that sold around 60k units across 3 platforms; other games such as Girls RPG and Guild 01 were so low budget that either didn't cause huge losses or were rebranded as eShop and iOS titles with mild success.

The bottom line is that people are overexaggerating when talking about Level-5 poor understanding of the market. Of course, when you are a company that is able to release two new million-seller IPs, expectations are higher. But all Level-5's project have been reasonably cheap, and the production process quite fast, so to not have periods of empty release schedules. The biggest Level-5 project in terms of budget was Ni no Kuni that eventually kind of succeeded in the West.

I don't know what are you trying to prove, Pokemon is trageted to childern, it doesn't matter if there are more adults playing the game than before, because Pokemon as a brand will always be targeted to children, so saying Pokemon and YW share basically the same audience is not wrong at all.

Likewise Battlefield and Call of Duty are not the same kind fo FPS, but saying they are targeted to the same audience is not wrong.

What I was trying to say (and I though of being quite clear) is that Pokémon audience seems more skewed towards young adults with respect to YW's, and for a variety of reasons. The fact that Pokémon is a 18 year old IP of course plays a role; also the fact that Pokémon's battle system is two-folded (simplistic if you don't mind, very deep if you want to compete) is another factor. Nintendo is marketing Pokémon to kids, BUT recently we have witnessed a slight shift towards nostalgia advertising (Kanto starters in X/Y, Megaevolution of popular Pokémon, and so on). Nintendo statistics on Pokémon demographics also showed that.

Of course we both don't have clear-cut data that might solve the debate. I also shared my impression, backed by some official statistics.
 

duckroll

Member
I don't think the issue is really that Level-5 has a poor understanding of the market. They clearly don't. It's just that they're a very cynical and artificial business. They don't really care about cultivating franchises for true long term value, but approach brands as completely disposable things once they have outlived their usefulness. It's a really good business plan for making lots of money, but not something anyone who cares about creativity would really respect. I think in general lots of people see companies like Activision and DeNA in the same light.
 

mao2

Member
I don't think the issue is really that Level-5 has a poor understanding of the market. They clearly don't. It's just that they're a very cynical and artificial business. They don't really care about cultivating franchises for true long term value, but approach brands as completely disposable things once they have outlived their usefulness. It's a really good business plan for making lots of money, but not something anyone who cares about creativity would really respect. I think in general lots of people see companies like Activision and DeNA in the same light.
Lots of gamers complain that companies pump out and rely too much on sequels though, so perhaps what Level 5 is doing is good?
 
I don't think the issue is really that Level-5 has a poor understanding of the market. They clearly don't. It's just that they're a very cynical and artificial business. They don't really care about cultivating franchises for true long term value, but approach brands as completely disposable things once they have outlived their usefulness. It's a really good business plan for making lots of money, but not something anyone who cares about creativity would really respect. I think in general lots of people see companies like Activision and DeNA in the same light.

It might be true.

Personally, I enjoyed most of their output. I cannot go into the Inazuma series because it is clearly targeted towards kids, but Layton and Fantasy Life are amazing, and Ni no Kuni is not bad.

I don't agree with the creativity issue. Level-5 is one of the few Japanese software houses to release new IPs with some kind of production values behind them, and sometimes also interesting gameplay aspects; in the past 10 years, they launched more than 10 new IPs. They also usually release quality games, and I think it's nice kids could play quality games from the beginning. But this is only my opinion (I think the same for Activision anyway).
 
“In Japan, the software market has been shrinking for the past few years and the North American market, which used to experience significant growth year after year, is seeing a slowing of that trend. “

(2004 Nintendo Annual Report)


Ah, PS4 just fell behind Dreamcast this week. 33 Weeks launch alligned:

DC: 724,257
PS4: 717,338

This shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Sony doesn't have first-party games, third party software sales has been shrinking since the end of the PS1 era, Japanese companies have been gradually moving away from Sony, and more and more devs are focusing on mobile.

PS3 software sales were the only thing keeping the PlayStation business afloat. There was clearly an untapped demand, but Sony stubbornly refused to drop the PS3 price to ¥19,980, scaring away potential consumers. Japanese companies reacted accordingly, pouring more resources into mobile/3DS instead of PS4/PSV.

Excluding mobile/3DS, the PS3 is still the only commercial viable platform. Cross-gen games (PS3/PS4) are a necessary evil in Japan; the only way to get support for the PS4 while SE is developing FF XV.

Famitsu TOP 30

SW Third Party - Since 3DS launch

PS3 - 28,123,274

3DS - 26,704,160

PSP - 14,601,258

PSV - 5,492,565

Wii - 3,021,893

NDS - 1,979,741

----------------------------------

SW Third Party - Since PS4 launch

3DS - 5,593,121

PS3 - 3,106,403

PSV - 1,883,010

PS4 - 682,405

PSP - 203,902

Wii U - 133,876

XBO - 27,475


Unfortunately, Sony has weakened short and long-term prospects for the PS4 by weakening the PS3 position. They have very little margin for error in Japan, yet they still have had the audacity to effectively increase the PS3 price in 2014.

TGS showed that PlayStation JP is in danger of extinction. There's no margin for error. If Final Fantasy XV doesn't do well ...

TGS 2014: Way more iOS/Android games being shown than games on console/handheld (IGN)
iOS -> 259

Android -> 246

PC (+ Browser Games + Steam) -> 93

PS3 -> 43

PS4 -> 42

3DS -> 41

PSV -> 34

XBO -> 24

360 -> 16

Wii U -> 13

PSP -> 5

Wii -> 3

NDS -> 1
 
“In Japan, the software market has been shrinking for the past few years and the North American market, which used to experience significant growth year after year, is seeing a slowing of that trend. “

(2004 Nintendo Annual Report)




This shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Sony doesn't have first-party games, third party software sales has been shrinking since the end of the PS1 era, Japanese companies have been gradually moving away from Sony, and more and more devs are focusing on mobile.

PS3 software sales were the only thing keeping the PlayStation business afloat. There was clearly an untapped demand, but Sony stubbornly refused to drop the PS3 price to ¥19,980, scaring away potential consumers. Japanese companies reacted accordingly, pouring more resources into mobile/3DS instead of PS4/PSV.

Excluding mobile/3DS, the PS3 is still the only commercial viable platform. Cross-gen games (PS3/PS4) are a necessary evil in Japan; the only way to get support for the PS4 while SE is developing FF XV.




Unfortunately, Sony has weakened short and long-term prospects for the PS4 by weakening the PS3 position. They have very little margin for error in Japan, yet they still have had the audacity to effectively increase the PS3 price in 2014.

TGS showed that PlayStation JP is in danger of extinction. There's no margin for error. If Final Fantasy XV doesn't do well ...

TGS 2014: Way more iOS/Android games being shown than games on console/handheld (IGN)

what was the DS game at TGS?
 
While I do agree that many developers are migrating over mobile phones, the comparison is not that fair when you consider that in such market, companies can develop faster and cheaper titles; and also there are many developers that didn't exist back then, or couldn't develop on a traditional platform.
 

Oregano

Member
I don't think it is accurate to suggest Japanese companies have been moving away from Sony at all. I think the third party support for Sony platforms is very disproportionate to their place in the market and I would even suggest that some developers/publishers have become increasingly focused on Sony platforms.
 
I don't think it is accurate to suggest Japanese companies have been moving away from Sony at all. I think the third party support for Sony platforms is very disproportionate to their place in the market and I would even suggest that some developers/publishers have become increasingly focused on Sony platforms.

Well, if you compare current output with those during PS2 era, there's no competition at all. Sony had EVERYONE on board and was the ONLY platform where third parties really focused on. GBA had some support but niche stuffs and low-budget games.
 

Oregano

Member
Well, if you compare current output with those during PS2 era, there's no competition at all. Sony had EVERYONE on board and was the ONLY platform where third parties really focused on. GBA had some support but niche stuffs and low-budget games.

I think that is simply because there is less releases. FF, Resident Evil, MGS, Tales, Musou, Tekken etc are all still focused on Playstation. Even Dragon Quest has moved back to Playstation. In fact they are more focused on Playstation than they were five years ago.

Monster Hunter is the only example of a big franchise switching away from Sony and Level 5 is probaly the only example of a developer/publisher moving away from Sony, but that was due to the fact that they found their success with low budget stuff on the DS.
 
I think that is simply because there is less releases. FF, Resident Evil, MGS, Tales, Musou, Tekken etc are all still focused on Playstation. Even Dragon Quest has moved back to Playstation. In fact they are more focused on Playstation than they were five years ago.

Monster Hunter is the only example of a big franchise switching away from Sony and Level 5 is probaly the only example of a developer/publisher moving away from Sony, but that was due to the fact that they found their success with low budget stuff on the DS.

You miss the fact that many of those IPs are now multi, and are spawning spin-offs (sometimes even exclusively) on other platforms. And there are many other IPs that migrated to competitors: Shin Megami Tensei, Taiko Drum Master, Derby Stallion, Kenka Bancho, Dragon Quest, Breath of Fire, Fatal Frame... Some IPs have had exclusive entries on other platforms, such as One Piece, Samurai Warriors, Tales of, Persona...

Of course, we are talking about the biggest IPs, but if you look at all those games that were developed by niche companies, and also smaller games by bigger companies... The comparison with Sony's heydays (or even PSP) is really shattering.
 

Oregano

Member
You miss the fact that many of those IPs are now multi, and are spawning spin-offs (sometimes even exclusively) on other platforms. And there are many other IPs that migrated to competitors: Shin Megami Tensei, Taiko Drum Master, Derby Stallion, Kenka Bancho, Dragon Quest, Breath of Fire, Fatal Frame... Some IPs have had exclusive entries on other platforms, such as One Piece, Samurai Warriors, Tales of, Persona...

Of course, we are talking about the biggest IPs, but if you look at all those games that were developed by niche companies, and also smaller games by bigger companies... The comparison with Sony's heydays (or even PSP) is really shattering.

SMT, Derby Stallion, Dragon Quest, Breath of Fire, One Piece and Tales all appeared on GBA(Gamecube had One Piece and Tales too, and Donkey Konga). Samurai Warriors and Tales have returned to being PS Exclusive for mainline entries and Samurai Warriors Chronicle 3 is now primarily a Vita game. It looks like Dragon Quest might possibly be going the same route too.

Shin Megami Tensei 4, Taiko, Kenka Bancho 6, Breath of Fire 6 and Fatal Frame(and Persona Q for spin offs) are the only ones that have moved away from Sony and considering they went from undisputed champ to distant second it's not so bad. PS3 and Vita have also received stuff like Little King Story, Rune Factory, Zero Escape, Luminous Arc and Rise of Mana which their predecessors missed out on.
 
For several of those franchises it's not disproportionate to the PS4's place in the market (MGS, RE, FF), it's entirely proportionate to their importance in the global market rather than the Japanese market. For something like Tales its presumably due to a bunch of platform experimentation essentially telling them that the franchise fan-base is predominantly on the PS home consoles.

The only one that's "off" is DQ, if the mainline does go back to PS home consoles, unless S-E are trying to reposition it as a global franchise. Or I suppose unless they simply really want it on a home console. Otherwise it would probably make more sense if it was like Ni no Kuni in terms of platforms.
 

Oregano

Member
For several of those franchises it's not disproportionate to the PS4's place in the market (MGS, RE, FF), it's entirely proportionate to their importance in the global market rather than the Japanese market. For something like Tales its presumably due to a bunch of platform experimentation essentially telling them that the franchise fan-base is predominantly on the PS home consoles.

The only one that's "off" is DQ, if the mainline does go back to PS home consoles, unless S-E are trying to reposition it as a global franchise. Or I suppose unless they simply really want it on a home console. Otherwise it would probably make more sense if it was like Ni no Kuni in terms of platforms.

Oh I'm not trying to suggest they should have moved just that I don't think there has been any notable movement away from Playstation, especially not to the extent you would expect from how far PS3/4 have fallen from PS2 or Vita has fallen from PSP. Third party support is very healthy for both platforms(even if it wasn't there at PS4 launch).
 
Yeah, the major Japanese support for the PS4 should come to no surprise due to its global sales being so good. Even niche games are placing greater emphasis on the Western sector than they previously would have and I'm guessing thats a reason for there being a more PSV/4 games than expected. The other franchises like Tales/Yakuza/DW etc are simply using historical data as an indication of where their user base will migrate too which is PS4.

Despite gaining IP's like Dragon Quest and Kingdom Hearts, the PS4 will still be at a loss in terms of third party games simply because output as a whole is decreasing. Middle tier still exists in Japan buts its notably smaller. I don't know how much of this output loss is due to focusing on mobile/handhelds but I'm guessing most of it is caused by the natural evolution of game development. Game dev time, resources, money needed etc are all increasing and so it only makes sense that output is decreasing everywhere.
 

Yasumi

Banned
Can you translate any of them properly? Just seems to be getting worse and worse the more reviews that come in.
There are a few troll reviews, saying that handhelds are dead and it should be on phones and tablets, but most of them are saying they feel the series is starting to stagnate, there aren't enough new monsters, and the price is too high if you've already got MH4 vanilla, since you can transfer data over and start straight into the new content, which seems to be lacking.
 

L Thammy

Member
Briefly checking the Monster Hunter wiki, there are about ten new large monsters and another ten from previous games that weren't in MH4. Putting them together, it's similar to the additions from P3rd. That leads me to agree that they're probably troll reviews,but maybe some long-time fans are annoyed that the focus isn't completely on new monsters.

On top of that, MH4 shook things up quite a bit; seems like a weird place for people to start thinking that the series is stagnating.
 
I see. Thanks for the input, guys.

I suppose long-term burnout on the series won't be a problem as long as they keep drawing in new fans.

Maybe Sal from Gematsu will read this and get Thomas to do a brand new "outside in" feature like he did for all of 5 games and then stopped bothering with.
 

nordique

Member
Could the yellowish screen tint be because they have power saving mode on by accident?

When that is on it gives it a yellowish glare instead of white
 

Darius

Banned
There are a few troll reviews, saying that handhelds are dead and it should be on phones and tablets, but most of them are saying they feel the series is starting to stagnate, there aren't enough new monsters, and the price is too high if you've already got MH4 vanilla, since you can transfer data over and start straight into the new content, which seems to be lacking.

Overall there aren´t that many amazon user reviews to begin with in this case, so far just 120. But I wouldn´t call the amount of troll posts out of those reviews just a few, in fact I would classify half of them as trolls. 40 people gave it just one star, which means every third one, another 20 out of 120 just two stars. It´s funny for several reasons, they gave such a time consuming game a review within the first day and the fact that there are still people that are bitter about MH.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
I don't think the issue is really that Level-5 has a poor understanding of the market. They clearly don't. It's just that they're a very cynical and artificial business. They don't really care about cultivating franchises for true long term value, but approach brands as completely disposable things once they have outlived their usefulness. It's a really good business plan for making lots of money, but not something anyone who cares about creativity would really respect. I think in general lots of people see companies like Activision and DeNA in the same light.

who cares about creativity should also recognize the good production values of their (at least) first iterations of a franchise and especially the number of newIPs created, imho.
 
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