Thank you, pal! I see the series follows the same worldwide growth in Japan too! Uncharted 4 will be interesting.
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Media Create Sales: Week 40, 2015 (Sep 28 - Oct 04)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Thank you, pal! I see the series follows the same worldwide growth in Japan too! Uncharted 4 will be interesting.
gundamkyoukai
Member
It's possible that UC4 will do more than TLOU seeing these numbers .
Still i think for certain UC4 will do better than UC3 .
You don't think GTAVI will sell even better than V?
Keep in mind that GTAV came out in the decline phase of the consoles market and only months before PS4's launch, any active GTAV buyers on PS3 will most likely own a PS4 at some point.
test_account
XP-39C²
Good result for Tokyo Xanadu and Yoru no Nai Kuni =) Minecraft and Splatoon still hanging on.
Metal Gear Solid 5 has pulled a bit ahead compared to MGS4. Famitsu numbers:
MGS4 after 5 weeks = 606,171
MGS5 after 5 weeks = 611,707 (+ 4,448 minimum download sales)
Metal Gear Solid 5 has pulled a bit ahead compared to MGS4. Famitsu numbers:
MGS4 after 5 weeks = 606,171
MGS5 after 5 weeks = 611,707 (+ 4,448 minimum download sales)
Depending on how high digital sales are, it could be higher than other Metal Gear games as well.
That's a really hard call to make at this point. I think it's very likely that by the time a GTAVI exists, the market could have changed again so much that previous results no longer matter. If a GTAVI came out next year, sure I think there's a possibility it could do better even on the PS4. But that's not going to happen so...
In Japan? 0% chance.
test_account
XP-39C²
Its possible for MGS2, but it has to be very high to beat that. MGS2 was at about 688k and MGS3 was at about 760k.
That's a really hard call to make at this point. I think it's very likely that by the time a GTAVI exists, the market could have changed again so much that previous results no longer matter. If a GTAVI came out next year, sure I think there's a possibility it could do better even on the PS4. But that's not going to happen so...
Yeah, I didn't consider the long dev cycle for Rockstar, a GTAVI will probably release in late 2017 at the earliest, but I personally think it will be a 2018 title while Red Dead releases next year.
We deviated from the original point lol, which was that the shrinking console market doesn't necessarily mean every software release will decline, and a game as recent as TPP proves that.
MGS has always sort of been the exception though, MGS4 also didn't represent a real decline even though most other games on PS3 were at the time (Musou, Gundam, Winning Eleven, Virtua Fighter, Ridge Racer, DMC, etc). It sold consistently on PSP too with Peace Walker, the series seems to have an unusually loyal fanbase across nearly any platform.
1st Course
Member
Good hardware and software (exc PES and arslan) numbers.
RealityPales
Member
Those Xbox One numbers are fascinating...
I am also shocked here. And here i thought Arslan is love by quite a huge number of Yoshiki Tanaka fans here.
Well, I've always pointed out that trying to extrapolate a result based on generalizing a market is a bad idea. It's important instead to look at trends and actual market behavior among the target audiences to make projects with any basis in reality.
The fact is, a shrinking console base means the ceiling for success keeps dropping. This affects the most successful games more than anything else. So games which previously sold several million on consoles in Japan now struggle to sell even a million. Even for Nintendo, they've converted brands like Smash Brothers and Mario Kart to take full advantage of the much larger portable market. Games like FF, RE, Gran Turismo, Winning Eleven, Musou, etc have been the biggest casualties.
On the other hand, there has been a sense in the last few years of the PS3 that the floor for good mid-range titles are going up. Games with enough awareness can actually sell over 500k, which is much better than the early days of the PS3. Whether this can carry over to the PS4 though, remains to be seen because the growth of the platform is still struggling.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Has RE really been effect that much ?
Thought that was like MGS where fan base around a certain amount give or take .
IAmRandom31
Banned
2016 is going to be a very interesting year for the PS4
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Pokemon am cry
SEGAvangelist
Member
Not really. It's what most expect if you're paying attention to the weekly sales threads as well as the lineup for the console.
I think he was talking about the price cut.
I guess it doesn't really affect RE because the franchise cratered in Japan before any of this was a factor. But it also means that there's no way RE will ever reach the height of its success again in Japan. RE2 on PS1 sold over 2 million copies in Japan on a single release.
What is strange about it?
Silver week and mario launch with bundle gave a boost, now it is back at its new still increased baseline
Definitely, the rise of social media is helping mid-tier titles tremendously, but to your point, I think keeping the "whales" on the console market is very important for future software sales.
Let me use Steam as an example (bear with me for a minute), the majority of software sales on Steam are by ~3 million people (or "whales"), the remaining users barely buy anything, but because of the "whales", games have a very generous floor because those "whales" buy every release, but with some exceptions, Steam doesn't have the ceiling that game consoles have.
The above applies to Japan as well, but with consoles and handhelds instead, handhelds have a much higher ceiling, but if consoles manage to retain the "whales" (it's too early to tell either way), the mid-tier projects will always be there mixed in with a few big releases.
Well Splatoon was holding it to around 10-12k by itself.
It's at 12k again right now and we don't know if it's done dropping. I was hoping MM + Splatoon might see like a 12-14k baseline, at least for a little while.
If it's done dropping and is at 12k, then that's fine. But I'm not convinced.
Biggest percentile drop out of everything this week.
I guess it doesn't really affect RE because the franchise cratered in Japan before any of this was a factor. But it also means that there's no way RE will ever reach the height of its success again in Japan. RE2 on PS1 sold over 2 million copies in Japan on a single release.
The decline in the franchise was Capcom's fault though, so many bone headed decisions during the PS2/DC/GC Era, RE6 sold better than the previous two AFAIK.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I guess it doesn't really affect RE because the franchise cratered in Japan before any of this was a factor. But it also means that there's no way RE will ever reach the height of its success again in Japan. RE2 on PS1 sold over 2 million copies in Japan on a single release.
2 million? o.o
Now it's doing what, less than 1 million?
FF numbered never has reached less than 2 million too, maybe it'll reach RE tier too?
It seems that Pokemon, Mario, Animal Crossing & Yokai Watch are the only properties left capable of doing 2 million+ in this marketplace
Edit: Dragon Quest too!
Yeah, I think FF15 will be the first sub-2m mainline title, I think it will sell 1.5m+, I would be hesitant in that prediction if TPP wasn't on pace to sell 1m.
bigmit3737
Member
Falcom games include the Ys games as well right ? How do they sell?know about the Kiseki games about they have FW sales of about 200k on two platforms if I remember correctly .
I hope it's in line with their expectations .
Avatar-- yeah I can't decide on one at the moment so I'm just leaving it as it is.
gundamkyoukai
Member
PS1 \ early PS2 days were monsters for software .
Yep Yoru should reach 100k IMO which good for a new GUST IP .
Think it sold more than the last few GUST games.
Anyone got the numbers ?
The main release didn't, but it did have a few re-releases.
According to japanltdrank for first week,
Ys: Memories of Celceta 38,806
Ys Seven 42,816
Ys: Oath of Felghana 20,717
Ys I & II: Chronicles 20,240
Tokyo Xanadu seems to have done very well.
AcademicSaucer
Member
Hopefully it doesnt affect any plan of releasing a retail version in the west.
Pennywise83
Banned
Monster Hunter too.
Pennywise83
Banned
Also it seems that:
22./05. [PSV] Genkai Tokki: Moero Crystal # <RPG> (Compile Heart) {2015.09.25} (¥7.344) - 4.887 / 25.976 <60-80%> (-77%)
will not even able to reach Moero Chronicle FW (36k), and just reached Monster Monpiece FW.
22./05. [PSV] Genkai Tokki: Moero Crystal # <RPG> (Compile Heart) {2015.09.25} (¥7.344) - 4.887 / 25.976 <60-80%> (-77%)
will not even able to reach Moero Chronicle FW (36k), and just reached Monster Monpiece FW.
I think you are forgetting mainline Monster Hunter!
Anyway I think I expected more from PS4 this week considering it only sold 8k and 4k the past two weeks after having around a 18k baseline prior to that! I wonder how long it can stay above 20k!
On the Wii U front, bigger drop than I expected! Despite Splatoon and SMM best efforts, the Wii U looks like it may go sub 10k next week.
Chû Totoro
Member
Will Japan also have a Wii U MK 8 + Splatoon bundle?
It could help them having a nice momentum during this fall.
It could help them having a nice momentum during this fall.
Lord_Byron28
Member
How unlikely is it that Nintendo will drop the price this holiday season and also offer a Splatoon bundle? I feel that is about all it has going for it. I'm doubtful about Animal Crossing or Mario tennis pulling big numbers.
Bioshocker
Member
Nice increase, PS4. Keep it up.
I'm disappointed in the drop but dont think it will be that low....at least not next week.
MGS is always just one example though, it seems to continually defy any downward trend which is why I pointed it out.
I'm also not sure the previous Naughty Dog or GTA comparisons are really great examples given they rely heavily on that established PS3 base to show growth. Same for Elder Scrolls or COD or any number if other western franchises that can clear 200k. When western games have only PS4 to rely on it's still quite far from certain if we'll see any growth here.
All FFXIII releases combined are under 2 million going by Famitsu. The reissues sold almost nothing.
Yes, it is obviously Capcom's fault. RE6 was definitely a strong recovery for the series in Japan, but like I said, given the market conditions, it is probably impossible for the series to attain sales of 2 million ever again no matter what they do.
Personally I'm really looking forward to games like FFXV and DQXI actually coming out in Japan on the PS4, so we can see once and for all what the ceiling actually is today for the biggest AAA blockbusters on consoles in Japan.
I honestly think the Wii U can drop < 10k for one week or two this year, but i'm gonna say will not just because after Splatoon, so many times i expected Wii U under 10k, but at the end is never happen... the bigger example is after the Obon week, when Wii U was over 11k.
PS4 should be over 15k for October, and after COD maybe over 20k for all 2015.
PS4 should be over 15k for October, and after COD maybe over 20k for all 2015.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
I don't think Dragon Quest XI will necessarily be instructive given that the 3DS version will likely take up 70% of the sales, but Final Fantasy XV and Kingdom Hearts III will be very interesting to watch for that reason.