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[Sandfox]

I think it's safe to take that stance prior to a platform's release. I don't buy the idea of secret NDAs etc.

There's likely just nothing being announced because there's nothing to announce.

I also don't think that really bodes well for Japanese publishers remaining relevant in the global market.

Isn't that why they are starting to bank on mobile?

I kind of assumed it chibified as it's easier to make it look good with that style on lower powered hardware.



But does it have Social Links?

It has school events in which you converse with other characters.

 

[Jamix012]

Isn't that why they are starting to bank on mobile?



It has school events in which you converse with other characters.

Hmm It'll be an interesting one for Sales. Will it outdo P4G or SMT4?

 

[Thorgal]

I would say my main concern for PS4 remains the zero announcements made since the pre-TGS event.

I will humor that there might be a lid on news for now, but once the thing releases I will take the stance I do with all released platforms: If announcements aren't happening, it's because games releasing anytime soon don't exist.

Well we do know Tales of games will likely jump to PS4 after the next one if we can believe Hideo Baba in his recent interview.

http://www.gamingangels.com/2013/11...of-producer-hideo-baba-at-new-york-comic-con/

VB: Are there currently any Tales games in development for the Playstation 4? Will there ever be any plans to bring the series to X-Box One?

HB: Yes, we are currently in the very early phases of work for next generation Playstation titles! But we still have no plans to bring the series back to the X-Box, or X-Box One. We feel that our core fanbase leans toward the Playstation 3/Playstation 4, so we are focusing our efforts on bringing the best possible Tales experience there!

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Those games are well under development, why are you guys "blaming" Sega?

 

[Yanikun]

Those games are well under development, why are you guys "blaming" Sega?

.

 

[L Thammy]

Those games are well under development, why are you guys "blaming" Sega?

If by "you guys" you mean "L Thammy", I wasn't thinking. Everyone else seemed to be pointing out my error.

 

[Shengar]

In Japan, what's left of the console market is starting to crumble.

Is that mean console will be a niche platform in Japan if PS4 tanked? What Japan can do to revive the market? Well I guess that is impossible task....

 

[kswiston]

Hmm It'll be an interesting one for Sales. Will it outdo P4G or SMT4?

I doubt it. The Tales series has similar spin off games, and they don't out perform the main series entries.

Also, I wouldn't read too much into P5 not being on PS4. Atlus and NIS stayed on PS2 as long as was possible this past generation as well. They make low budget games, that don't really need the extra power.

 

[Jamix012]

I doubt it. The Tales series has similar spin off games, and they don't out perform the main series entries.

Also, I wouldn't read too much into P5 not being on PS4. Atlus and NIS stayed on PS2 as long as was possible this past generation as well. They make low budget games, that don't really need the extra power.

Yeah but P4G was a remake and this is a totally new game. I dunno. We'll see what happens but I'm expecting 200k+ first week and a disproportionate 3DS boost as some of the Persona fandom buys a 3DS.

 

[kswiston]

Yeah but P4G was a remake and this is a totally new game. I dunno. We'll see what happens but I'm expecting 200k+ first week and a disproportionate 3DS boost as some of the Persona fandom buys a 3DS.

I expect no noticeable hardware bump for the 3DS. Again, this is a fanservice spinoff. Also, the type of people who buy Persona already own a 3DS. We're talking about the main gaming hobbyist audience.

 

[Jamix012]

I expect no noticeable hardware bump for the 3DS. Again, this is a fanservice spinoff. Also, the type of people who buy Persona already own a 3DS. We're talking about the main gaming hobbyist audience.

The Persona series has quite a specific, dedicated fandom and a lot of them have had no reason to get a 3DS up till now. It should comfortably do EO numbers and I don't think listing it as a "fan service spinoff" will hurt it's sales too much. It won't do P5 numbers, that's for sure, but 350K lifetime? I don't think it's out of the question.

 

[Shengar]

The Persona series has quite a specific, dedicated fandom and a lot of them have had no reason to get a 3DS up till now. It should comfortably do EO numbers and I don't think listing it as a "fan service spinoff" will hurt it's sales too much. It won't do P5 numbers, that's for sure, but 350K lifetime? I don't think it's out of the question.

I think that this specific, dedicated isn't that big. Most Persona players are also fan of Atlus games, which mean they already have too much reasons for buying a 3DS. Of course I could wrong about my estimation on this, specific dedicated fanbase.

 

[kswiston]

The Persona series has quite a specific, dedicated fandom and a lot of them have had no reason to get a 3DS up till now. It should comfortably do EO numbers and I don't think listing it as a "fan service spinoff" will hurt it's sales too much. It won't do P5 numbers, that's for sure, but 350K lifetime? I don't think it's out of the question.

I don't think any of the Persona mainline games have hit 350k LTD. At least since the PS1 era. This is not a large series. Its reception on GAF is disproportionate to actual sales.

EDIT: I do think P5 will have some growth. We could see 350-400k for that game. Not so much for the spinoffs.

 

[Spiegel]

I don't think any of the Persona mainline games have hit 350k LTD. At least since the PS1 era. This is not a large series. Its reception on GAF is disproportionate to actual sales.

EDIT: I do think P5 will have some growth. We could see 350-400k for that game. Not so much for the spinoffs.

M-C has P4+best at >430k

335839 (2009) + 96038 (2012)

 

[kswiston]

M-C has P4+best at >430k

335839 (2009) + 96038 (2012)

Forgot about re-releases. I guess P5 could be bigger than 400k on its initial release.

Still, I doubt a chibi dungeon crawler spin-off comes anywhere near 350k.

 

[Shengar]

I don't think any of the Persona mainline games have hit 350k LTD. At least since the PS1 era. This is not a large series. Its reception on GAF is disproportionate to actual sales.

EDIT: I do think P5 will have some growth. We could see 350-400k for that game. Not so much for the spinoffs.

Yup, Persona is niche series with massive pressence in the internet. Many Persona fans I know think the series is pretty big, which actually don't if we have to see from sales numbers.

 

[crinale]

I don't think any of the Persona mainline games have hit 350k LTD. At least since the PS1 era. This is not a large series. Its reception on GAF is disproportionate to actual sales.

EDIT: I do think P5 will have some growth. We could see 350-400k for that game. Not so much for the spinoffs.

Persona is now 400k-ish LTD game in Japan alone now. Now the userbase is nearing Tales series (not quite but getting there).
It'll be interesting because as for Tales series they're going into Next gen, unlike like Atlus.

 

[Jamix012]

I don't think any of the Persona mainline games have hit 350k LTD. At least since the PS1 era. This is not a large series. Its reception on GAF is disproportionate to actual sales.

EDIT: I do think P5 will have some growth. We could see 350-400k for that game. Not so much for the spinoffs.

P4 sold 400k+ and I do think the series is set for rapid growth personally and the 3DS and PS3 are perfect for it. Persona 3 Portable and Golden were hits despite being remakes and show, to me, that the series is bigger than it was in 2008. It may seem a little out there but I predict between 300 and 400k for Persona Q and 450k-750k for Persona 5. I'm making the assumption that both the games are well recieved. I also think that the week Persona Q is released, the 3DS will rise by 20k+.

 

[BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO]

Yeah but P4G was a remake and this is a totally new game. I dunno. We'll see what happens but I'm expecting 200k+ first week and a disproportionate 3DS boost as some of the Persona fandom buys a 3DS.

You know this isn't a traditional persona game right? It's a straight up dungeon crawler and I think 99% of persona fans don't really care about that at all. I'm not sure if it'll do 200k first week, I don't think that's happening at all. That would be the same as a mainline title and more than SMT IV.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

200-250k for PQ
150-250k for P4D
500-700k for P5

You know this isn't a traditional persona game right? It's a straight up dungeon crawler and I think 99% of persona fans don't really care about that at all. I'm not sure if it'll do 200k first week, I don't think that's happening at all. That would be the same as a mainline title and more than SMT IV.

Yup we all know PQ and P4D are spin offs/ fan service. Definitely some of the fan base will adopt it but not like P4G and nowhere like P5 which is what we waited 5 years for.

 

[Jamix012]

You know this isn't a traditional persona game right? It's a straight up dungeon crawler and I think 99% of persona fans don't really care about that at all. I'm not sure if it'll do 200k first week, I don't think that's happening at all. That would be the same as a mainline title and more than SMT IV.

99% of Persona fans don't care about that? I don't agree. I think most do care because the Persona brand is not just built off the battle system, but also the story and characters. In fact i'd say it's mostly for the story anc characters. Besides, while it may be a dungeon crawler it looks like it has a Persona-esque battle system and has social link-type conversations between characters.

So yeah final predictions:
PQ: 300-400k
P5: 450-750k
PD: 125-210k

 

[Spiegel]

Forgot about re-releases. I guess P5 could be bigger than 400k on its initial release.

Still, I doubt a chibi dungeon crawler spin-off comes anywhere near 350k.

Sure. I don't think Atlus expects that.

They probably expect a reasonable growth from previous EO games, though.

 

[Pie and Beans]

P3 and P4 protagonist on the same screen dooms Persona Q to total spinoff shite, its not going to get near mainline titles so those expectations are unreasonable. Especially when its a chibi dungeon crawler. 150-250k max, no hardware boost. 3DS is curious in that beyond Smash next year, I'm not sure what other than another Pokemon/MonHun wave would be the next big hw pushing software. Maybe Puzzle & Dragons will go nuclear at the end of this year and never stop though.

I also wonder if Sony is going to try and throw resources Atlus way to get P5 cross-gen. I think they realised too late that third parties needed big incentivising to ditch PSP and go Vita quickly when we're still seeing God Eater straddle platforms.

 

[Magicpaint]

99% of Persona fans don't care about that? I don't agree. I think most do care because the Persona brand is not just built off the battle system, but also the story and characters. In fact i'd say it's mostly for the story anc characters. Besides, while it may be a dungeon crawler it looks like it has a Persona-esque battle system and has social link-type conversations between characters.

So yeah final predictions:
PQ: 300-400k
P5: 450-750k
PD: 125-210k

Persona Q will sell pretty much like an EO game. Maybe a bit more but highly doubtful it'll sell more than P4G.

 

[Shengar]

Persona Q will sell pretty much like an EO game. Maybe a bit more but highly doubtful it'll sell more than P4G.

How much EO games usually sell?

 

[kswiston]

How much EO games usually sell?

120-150k

 

[Takao]

I would've expected 200-230k for Persona Q's LTD ...

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 350K
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1500K
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 290K
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) – 300K
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) – 165K
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) – 330K
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) – 300K
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) – 600K
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) – 160K
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 130K
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) – 360K

 

[BishopLamont]

Sega-Atlus making all the right moves.

 

[ZeroXZee]

Sega-Atlus making all the right moves.

Devlopement of that games probably started months (maybe years for Persona 5) before Sega bought Atlus...

Spoiler

but I think Sega would do the same lol

 

[BishopLamont]

Devlopement of that games probably started months (maybe years for Persona 5) before Sega bought Atlus...

Spoiler

but I think Sega would do the same lol

I only called it Sega-Atlus coz Sega aquired them. =p

Q and Dancing reminds me of Chibi Miku and Miku for Vita, right up Sega's alley.

 

[Orgen]

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 244.000
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 1.352.000
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 206.000
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) – 197.000
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) – 211.000
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) – 305.000
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) – 323.000
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) – 619.000
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) – 180.000
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 106.000
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) – 228.000

 

[Yanikun]

Do we know what SMT IV did lifetime in Japan?

 

[Busaiku]

It was at 245k before falling off.

 

[maxiell]

The wait for SM3DW numbers is unbearable.

 

[duckroll]

I only called it Sega-Atlus coz Sega aquired them. =p

Q and Dancing reminds me of Chibi Miku and Miku for Vita, right up Sega's alley.

Q has probably been in development since EO4 was done. Dancing does seem like something that Sega might be involved in, but....

http://www.dingo.co.jp/works.html

There's an "unannounced" Vita title on Dingo's site, which is clearly P4D. Based on the Wayback Machine's cache, there has been an "unannounced" Vita title on that page since June 2012, but in Aug 2013 they added Love Live for Vita and still had an unannounced Vita title. It's like that Love Live was the previously unannounced Vita game, since it's coming out in May 2014, while P4D is a Fall 2014 title. That means P4D has been in development since at least August this year, way before Sega bought anything.

You have to keep in mind that Sega only formally took over operations of Index on Nov 1st, so their influence if any would not be apparent for quite some time. Games don't just magically make themselves.

 

[ZeroXZee]

Do we know what SMT IV did lifetime in Japan?

240,473 LTD, last time it ranked.

https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/3ds

 

[cafemomo]

If marketed correctly, the Vita dancing game would sell more than Persona Q (sadly)

 

[Aquamarine]

240,473 LTD, last time it ranked.

https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/3ds

Yeah, that number is through June 30th.

We have more recent numbers from Dengeki.


According to Dengeki, Shin Megami Tensei 4 is at 258,525 LTD as of September 30th.

 

[leatherhat]

P4Q will probably do a little better than EO because of the persona tie in, P4D will hopefully do similar numbers to Project diva f. I think P5 will be 500k+, P4 really helped persona explode in popularity and visibility.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I can actually see P4D outselling PQ

Spoiler

if it had Naoto in it. Apparently the JP love her

 

[BlackJace]

I can actually see P4D outselling PQ

Spoiler

if it had Naoto in it. Apparently the JP love her

Who doesn't tho?

 

[leatherhat]

I can actually see P4D outselling PQ

Spoiler

if it had Naoto in it. Apparently the JP love her

That's not just Japan, that's a worldwide phenomena

 

[Asd202]

Persona 5 to outsell LR? BELIEVE.

 

[Sandfox]

Persona Q will sell pretty much like an EO game. Maybe a bit more but highly doubtful it'll sell more than P4G.

I can see this game selling to both the EO and Persona audience so it could strive for 200k.

 

[Nirolak]

I think it's safe to take that stance prior to a platform's release if there's enough to suggest it. I don't buy the idea of secret NDAs etc.

There's likely just nothing being announced because there's nothing to announce.

I also don't think that really bodes well for Japanese publishers remaining relevant in the global market.

Oh I agree with you, I just won't go to the mat over it prior to a system coming out.

Post release I'm likely to actively argue with people who say there are announcements that are being asked to be held back either formally or informally.

It's not 100% insane sounding to me if someone wanted to argue that a vendor went "It would be cool if you announced a game right before the system came out to generate more hype for launch.", even if I find it unlikely. I think it makes zero sense to make that argument at any point beyond that.

But yeah as of today my projection for the PS4 is that it will tank a few weeks post launch until at least Fall if not longer, depending on if publishers have forsaken it as much as they have seem to.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Persona 5 to outsell LR? BELIEVE.

It most likely will lol

That's not just Japan, that's a worldwide phenomena

Nah if we had a Persona favourite character poll I doubt Naoto would be even in the top ten.

Oh I agree with you, I just won't go to the mat over it prior to a system coming out.

Post release I'm likely to actively argue with people who say there are announcements that are being asked to be held back either formally or informally.

I KNOW WHAT YOU DID

 

[crinale]

Persona 5 to outsell LR? BELIEVE.

At previous gen if you even guessed that Persona outselling FF in Japan people had called you crazy.
I can't believe that FF sales (speculation) has fallen so much that this even becomes possibility.

 

[Nirolak]

You have to keep in mind that Sega only formally took over operations of Index on Nov 1st, so their influence if any would not be apparent for quite some time. Games don't just magically make themselves.

Were I to credit Sega with anything so far it would be buying screen time on public screens, which seems like it's probably a bit more than Index might normally spend to market three spin-offs.

 

[Nirolak]

It most likely will lol



Nah if we had a Persona favourite character poll I doubt Naoto would be even in the top ten.



I KNOW WHAT YOU DID

Yep you caught me, I edited to a longer post.