I wouldn't count on the queue thing - hell, for the MH thing i traveled -all night- around Tokyo (from midnight until about 7:30am) and the queues were tiny.
By the time i got home it seemed like the whole of TK had decended on Yodo Aki.
That said - for the PS3 launch they had to open up the underground car park for the masses of people waiting.
Again - whether i'm right on the figure seems unlikely unless the rumour of a shipment of -only- 300k turns out to be true. The only other weird thing is that all the preorders seem to have been pulled between thursday/friday of last week.
And, as moaned about elsewhere, Nintendo didn't put out A SINGLE DEMO UNIT. Not ONE. In either Shinjuku, Shibuya, Aki, etc.