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[Little Green Yoda]

So this company stops releasing games for Wii about three years into its life. Makes terrible launch games for 3DS.
Does the same on Wii U...and hasn't released another Wii U game yet.

Since the Wii U was announced E3 2011, what has this company been doing? Have they focused on 3DS instead? The results don't show that.

Took the words out of my mou...err...keyboard. When the biggest achievement the company has really done in the past 2-3 years is to rebound from a lukewarm launch in one territory while another lukewarm launch is ongoing and revenue/profits have been going down, the person running the show is likely to get axed.

 

[strangedopamine]

What a mystery...the lack of games that is.

So this company stops releasing games for Wii about three years into its life. Makes terrible launch games for 3DS.
Does the same on Wii U...and hasn't released another Wii U game yet.

Since the Wii U was announced E3 2011, what has this company been doing? Have they focused on 3DS instead? The results don't show that.

Maybe Iwata and others have lost interest in gaming...they should put their money into whore houses.

So are you saying that Nintendo released no games whatsoever for Wii since 2009? I'm sorry but I'm afraid that isn't the case. Nintendo has been releasing games for Wii right up until mid 2012.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The only way they're going to get the hardware to move (or even survive on retailer shelves) is:
a) A drastic price cut.
b) A breakout hit.
c) A flurry of software.
d) A combination of the above.

The only one really within Nintendo's control is the price. And there's no way they make their profit promise if they drastically cut the price, which would see Iwata eject himself from the CEOship.*

*Unless as suggested they load up the losses this quarter/FY - but then, I don't know if pressure would mount on Iwata now instead of later if they took large losses.

 

[InsaneZero]

No, but I think Wii U is going to fall harder while Vita has stabilized at 35-50k in the US market.

It would stand to reason that given two products under similar circumstances, the one that is currently selling more will continue to sell more until there is some sort of change.

 

[jeremy1456]

The only way they're going to get the hardware to move (or even survive on retailer shelves) is:
a) A drastic price cut.
b) A breakout hit.
c) A flurry of software.
d) A combination of the above.

The only one really within Nintendo's control is the price. And there's no way they make their profit promise if they drastically cut the price, which would see Iwata eject himself from the CEOship.*

*Unless as suggested they load up the losses this quarter/FY - but then, I don't know if pressure would mount on Iwata now instead of later if they took large losses.

I'm not positive what constitutes a 'break out hit.' That seems to infer something new that catches on.

They have big software coming. That's what we for sure know. Come the release of their big hitters they probably won't even need to drop to price to do well.

 

[Principate]

TBF the Vita hasn't stablised at all, 35k isn't a hint towarss stablization. They both most probably on a down trend how far it goes nobdy knows.

 

[liger05]

i wonder if Vita version of One Piece will move some hardware

PS3 copy will make sure that doesnt happen.

 

[Scum]

Just get the software out, Nintendo, and the consumers will come. Iwata can start with a Nintendo Direct, announcing Bayonetta: Climax Edition on the eShop along with a release date and demo for Wonderful 101.

 

[BlackJace]

Exactly. Sure when MK comes out, consoles will sell, and even when titles like Lego or Bayonetta come then Wii U units will too. However that's not necessarily enough to hit the snowball effect, which is required to make a console healthy.

If you're a train at the station and every now and then you chuff hard and move 100 metres down the track that's not going to get you to the same place as chuffing mildly but continuously.

Because Nintendo couldn't save the GameCube with the sane type of software. You will probably only see hardware spikes. I think this is Chris' point.

I guess that's fair. Far too much doom for my tastes, but hey.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm not positive what constitutes a 'break out hit.' That seems to infer something new that catches on.

They have big software coming. That's what we for sure know. Come the release of their big hitters they probably won't even need to drop to price to do well.

It did.

Because I don't see Wii Fit U driving system sales simply because Wii Fit was a huge seller. I don't deny I could be entirely wrong about this, but similar examples exist with the NDS -> 3DS transition for some titles.

I'm not sure what else in the near term would constitute a big hitter.
I don't see DQ really doing much either. And on a more global perspective things like Lego City aren't going to be enough either.

 

[AranhaHunter]

I have noticed that even when the PS3 gets big games, like MGSR this week, the HW does not get a bump. Is it fair to say that short of getting a game that the PS3 hasn't had, like DQ, KH, or mainline MH, the only bump the PS3 will really get will come from a price drop? Actually I'm not sure KH HD1.5 will bump it either, so I think only a price drop will boost it.

 

[Gummb]

He might be talking about how Nintendo prematurely killed the Wii for no apparent reason.

Even then, did that ruin the Wii brand? Did the Wii sell because of the name, or did it sell because people could play fun games for a good price? The Wii U is obviously different and it's going to take time for Nintendo realize its potential.

In my opinion, they completely botched the launch and should have launched it in March along with a consistent line-up of titles. However, to extend that to "Iwata is doomed, Wii brand is fucked," is something else entirely.

 

[Nirolak]

It did.

Because I don't see Wii Fit U driving system sales simply because Wii Fit was a huge seller. I don't deny I could be entirely wrong about this, but similar examples exist with the NDS -> 3DS transition for some titles.

I'm not sure what else in the near term would constitute a big hitter.
I don't see DQ really doing much either. And on a more global perspective things like Lego City aren't going to be enough either.

I feel my major problem with Wii Fit U is that I'm not sure the target audience sees a reason to not just keep using Wii Fit on the Wii instead.

Sequelibility has always been the biggest problem with the casual audience in my mind, especially with anything with a notable price point.

 

[Gummb]

I feel my major problem with Wii Fit U is that I'm not sure the target audience sees a reason to not just keep using Wii Fit on the Wii instead.

Sequelibility has always been the biggest problem with the casual audience in my mind, especially with anything with a notable price point.

To be fair, Nintendo has yet to make Wii Fit U appealing yet. We'll have to wait and see how they advertise it. It will also be launching around the same time as Wii Party U (if they both launch in the summer), so perhaps a double "Wii" push could be more beneficial. We'll have to wait and see, but it looks like Nintendo sure isn't in any hurry to launch Wii Fit U.

 

[Baconsammy]

I think Wii Fit sold well because people already knew they wanted a Wii and the control mechanism it was pushing. Another Wii Fit isn't the trigger Nintendo needs to get people to buy a Wii U, since people clearly don't want a Wii U or the new gimmick they're pushing this time around. If 2D Mario didn't bring big console numbers, Wii Fit U sure as heck isn't.

 

[metalslimer]

Wii Fit U isn't going to get people to drop money on a new console. Like NSMBU, it is a title that will benefit from a system having a userbase already. If Wii Fit had come out on say the PS3, no one would have batted an eye. I expect it to do pretty poorly when it launches and then get somewhat a boost this holiday when the other software drops.

Still, besides the Wii no one has been able to come up with a convincing argument of how Mario Kart and the next 3D mario are going to have a sustained boost for the console without 3rd party support. Unless Nintendo manages to drop the price signficantly, the system will just be right back in the dumps 2-3 months after those games launch. Nintendo has got to get the checkbook out and put a massive investment into new studios/partnership/acquisitions or they will just keep repeating this endless cycle.

And yes Iwata is probably going to have to fall on the sword and pricecut the Wii U for this holiday because even with some of their bigger software, the price is just too much. Although it would probably have to come with a 3DS XL pricecut since both of them being the same price would be kind of strange.

 

[Gummb]

I think Wii Fit sold well because people already knew they wanted a Wii and the control mechanism it was pushing. Another Wii Fit isn't the trigger Nintendo needs to get people to buy a Wii U, since people clearly don't want a Wii U or the new gimmick they're pushing this time around. If 2D Mario didn't bring big console numbers, Wii Fit U sure as heck isn't.

You don't think people bought Wii Fit because it was a fun way to exercise in the home? Why did anyone buy Wii Fit Plus?

 

[Osiris]

Wii Fit was something that gave major momentum to sales of "the Wii Sports machine" thru word of mouth and hitting on a motion controls / gaming for everyone zeitgeist.

It was the right product at the right time.

Wii Fit U is not going to do the same, not even close.

Bargain bucket before the end of the year. (If they manage to release it before then )

 

[Scum]

I feel my major problem with Wii Fit U is that I'm not sure the target audience sees a reason to not just keep using Wii Fit on the Wii instead.

Sequelibility has always been the biggest problem with the casual audience in my mind, especially with anything with a notable price point.

Wii Fit U will do bugger all. Wonderful 101 > Wii Fit U.

 

[Kainazzo]

Bargain bucket before the end of the year. (If they manage to release it before then )

Does anything Nintendo releases really drop that fast? Cutting the price by ~80% after 3 months? Not saying it's false, but now that I think of it, I can't name any examples. Whatever happened to Virtual Boy pricing?

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Comgnet comparisons! As of February, 27th

About 9 games on Comgnet Top 20 are releasing on Feb 28, so next weeks's chart will probably include Soul Sacrifice!

 

[metalslimer]

Wii Fit U will do bugger all. Wonderful 101 > Wii Fit U.

I wish, Wonderful 101 if it launches in the state Wii U is in now will struggle to hit 100k.

 

[ambientmystic]

Good lord, I'm late to this party but it seems like the critical x<10k/week line has been crossed for the Wii U.

Honestly, I just think that at this point they're just intentionally letting the thing fade away from the public's mind until they can get that relaunch going in the summer/fall lol.

By then they'd have stockpiled enough of the things to go for a huge marketing blitz with no supply constraints and have all the super awesome funtime 1st party games to capture the public's mindshare like they did the Wii.

And the 1st quarter of this year would be just another bad memory for Iwata and co., just like the 3DS.

And the Vita squeaking ahead of the Wii U is just icing on the cake. It could just be another one of its last throes before its permanent demise though.

Oh wait, that's a bit premature, I'll have to wait for Soul Sacrifice and the price cut to be rolled out nationwide in Japan before making that statement.

 

[Baconsammy]

You don't think people bought Wii Fit because it was a fun way to exercise in the home? Why did anyone buy Wii Fit Plus?

Did people buy a Wii for Wii Fit Plus or did they buy Wii Fit Plus because they already owned a Wii and a board? With Wii Fit U you need to convince people that already own Wii Fit that they need to spend however much for the new game and also buy a 300+ dollar console they weren't interested in enough to buy already. Sorry, but imo that fad is dead and gone.

 

[jeremy1456]

It did.

Because I don't see Wii Fit U driving system sales simply because Wii Fit was a huge seller. I don't deny I could be entirely wrong about this, but similar examples exist with the NDS -> 3DS transition for some titles.

I'm not sure what else in the near term would constitute a big hitter.
I don't see DQ really doing much either. And on a more global perspective things like Lego City aren't going to be enough either.

I never said near term.

Mario Kart at the end of the year could do it.

 

[Mileena]

I wish, Wonderful 101 if it launches in the state Wii U is in now will struggle to hit 100k.

How would Wii Fit U do any better? The people who bought this console at launch (I assume) are the "core"

We want to play games, not workout minigame bullshit.

 

[Alex]

Does anything Nintendo releases really drop that fast? Not saying it's false, but now that I think of it, I can't name any examples. Whatever happened to Virtual Boy pricing?

I remember the stacks of them at Toys R Us and Target for 30 bucks about a year after launch.

 

[metalslimer]

How would Wii Fit U do any better? The people who bought this console at launch (I assume) are the "core"

We want to play games, not workout minigame bullshit.

It's not going to do much better I just think W101 will bomb pretty hard.

 

[Gummb]

Did people buy a Wii for Wii Fit Plus or did they buy Wii Fit Plus because they already owned a Wii and a board? With Wii Fit U you need to convince people that already own Wii Fit that they need to spend however much for the new game and also buy a 300+ dollar console they weren't interested in enough to buy already. Sorry, but imo that fad is dead and gone.

I won't debate with you over the potential sales of Wii Fit U, but I do think many people bought a Wii for Wii Fit. Then, some turned around and bought Wii Fit Plus.

 

[Yamauchi]

Disastrous, Nintendo.

The GameCube's ~22 million worldwide is looking pretty good at the moment.

 

[Mileena]

It's not going to do much better I just think W101 will bomb pretty hard.

It's a Platinum game, I'm pretty positive it will. Shit, I love all of their games and I'm not even sold on TW101 yet. I'll probably wait for bomba price if anything.

 

[Gonzo The Great]

Disastrous, Nintendo.

The GameCube's ~22 million worldwide is looking pretty good at the moment.

 

[hongcha]

So it has finally happened: Vita outsold the Wii U.

Next week will see the first numbers with the official Vita price cut in play (also keep in mind the Silver model is launching today, which will be included in next week's numbers) along with the numbers for this week's two big releases: Senran Kagura and Phantasy Star Online. Then the following week (March 13) we will see the numbers for Soul Sacrifice and Tales of Hearts R. So for the next two weeks we should see really good Vita numbers in hardware and software on Media Create. It will be interesting to see if the momentum can hold for the following weeks where there are a lot of releases planned (like Oboro Muramasa) but none are expected to be big sellers.

Wii U on the other hand has nothing coming out in the same period, so its downward spiral should continue unabated.

 

[Dalthien]

The only way they're going to get the hardware to move (or even survive on retailer shelves) is:
a) A drastic price cut.
b) A breakout hit.
c) A flurry of software.
d) A combination of the above.

The only one really within Nintendo's control is the price. And there's no way they make their profit promise if they drastically cut the price, which would see Iwata eject himself from the CEOship.*

*Unless as suggested they load up the losses this quarter/FY - but then, I don't know if pressure would mount on Iwata now instead of later if they took large losses.

I don't see them loading up on losses this quarter, but they aren't trying to pull any profits into the fiscal year-end either.

The $1B in profits next year is a massive goal that I'm not sure how they reach. But $500M+ isn't out of reach by any stretch.

The 3DS has already been the top-selling gaming system worldwide in both 2011 and 2012, and I'd already lock it in stone that it will easily be the top-selling system in 2013 as well. And for the first time, the 3DS hardware should be profitable for the full fiscal year. The XL launched in the black, so it should be even more profitable by now, and the regular 3DS got back to profitability somewhere around Sept. So let's say the regular unit is about +$10/unit, with the XL +$20-25/unit, with those numbers likely finishing the fiscal year with even higher margins. Let's say the 3DS averages +$20/unit for the FY, with sales in the 18-20M range - that's nearly $400M in profits just from the hardware alone. The goal in that case would be to keep the losses minimized on the WiiU for the FY - and let software profits carry you up above the $500M threshold (and possibly well above that threshold with some big-selling software a la Pokemon in the FY).

If Nintendo can get above $500M in the next FY, I think Iwata would be seen to have turned things around again, and he would stay on with a chance to keep the turnaround going. But he would probably have to fall on his sword if they fall short of that.

 

[BlackJace]

It's a Platinum game, I'm pretty positive it will. Shit, I love all of their games and I'm not even sold on TW101 yet. I'll probably wait for bomba price if anything.

But how about dat MGR?

 

[Mystic_Wanderer]

But how about dat MGR?

That sold 100% on the Metal Gear name.

 

[Baconsammy]

That sold 100% on the Metal Gear name.

And on consoles that people actually buy.

 

[Dalthien]

I have noticed that even when the PS3 gets big games, like MGSR this week, the HW does not get a bump. Is it fair to say that short of getting a game that the PS3 hasn't had, like DQ, KH, or mainline MH, the only bump the PS3 will really get will come from a price drop? Actually I'm not sure KH HD1.5 will bump it either, so I think only a price drop will boost it.

People just aren't that interested in the PS3. They never have been. It's in its 7th year on the market, and just finally broke the 9M barrier. It has never sold more than 1.7M in any year, and only sold 1.2M last year, and will likely sell less than that again this year. It carved out a place for itself, but it has never been popular, and for much of its existence, it has been lukewarm at best.

It is what it is. I mean, the PS3 is a step up from the Gamecube, but the Cube had just as many million-sellers as the PS3 (and won't be far off the # of 500k sellers either when it is all said and done). The PS3 survived, but it never caught on.

 

[Mondriaan]

People just aren't that interested in the PS3. They never have been. It's in its 7th year on the market, and just finally broke the 9M barrier. It has never sold more than 1.7M in any year, and only sold 1.2M last year, and will likely sell less than that again this year. It carved out a place for itself, but it has never been popular, and for much of its existence, it has been lukewarm at best.

It is what it is. I mean, the PS3 is a step up from the Gamecube, but the Cube had just as many million-sellers as the PS3 (and won't be far off the # of 500k sellers either when it is all said and done). The PS3 survived, but it never caught on.

I think once a console reaches a certain age there tend to be enough used consoles available that the supply will satisfy demand; people buy a new game, finish it, and sell back the game and console. If there aren't many games that someone is interested in, that person may not be interested in keeping around the system.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Honestly, I just think that at this point they're just intentionally letting the thing fade away from the public's mind until they can get that relaunch going in the summer/fall lol.

By then they'd have stockpiled enough of the things to go for a huge marketing blitz with no supply constraints and have all the super awesome funtime 1st party games to capture the public's mindshare like they did the Wii.

Infallible Nintendo. All according to keikaku.

I never said near term.

Mario Kart at the end of the year could do it.

You replied to me first. And my comment was on the near term.

Even in the longer term, I'm not particularly confident a console with sub-10K sales for most of the year can magically turnaround with a Mario Kart game.

 

[schuelma]

Even in the longer term, I'm not particularly confident a console with sub-10K sales for most of the year can magically turnaround with a Mario Kart game.

PS3 turned things around (eventually) after a horrific first year, and without any mega selling franchise besides FF13.

Achieving some level of mediocrity isn't that out of reach yet, I don't think.

 

[Spiegel]

PS3 is still expensive for a four year old console, yet alone a six years old+ console. That kills any chance of pulling good weekly numbers

Sony was selling PS2 + Ratchet for 26000Y at the end of 2002 and the console alone for 19900Y three and a half years after launch.

 

[Mileena]

But how about dat MGR?

Are you really implying it had to do with the quality of game instead of the huge METAL GEAR on the cover? Haha oh wow.

 

[shinra-bansho]

What did the 3DS do so far in this fiscal year?

Why is there assumption it will top it next fiscal year - it's down y/y in the US iirc.

I have noticed that even when the PS3 gets big games, like MGSR this week, the HW does not get a bump. Is it fair to say that short of getting a game that the PS3 hasn't had, like DQ, KH, or mainline MH, the only bump the PS3 will really get will come from a price drop? Actually I'm not sure KH HD1.5 will bump it either, so I think only a price drop will boost it.

I don't think new software releases are really the major driver for systems long in the tooth - it's more back-catalog and lower price. The cumulative effect of 7 years of software is more important than any single release now.

PS3 turned things around (eventually) after a horrific first year, and without any mega selling franchise besides FF13.

Achieving some level of mediocrity isn't that out of reach yet, I don't think.

I don't think the PS3 really turned around until the Slim, price drop and FFXIII. Although I could be wrong and can't be bothered looking it up.

 

[Apophis2036]

When is Iwata going to wake up ?...

A console that isn't showing anything better graphically than consoles that were released in 2006, priced the way it is just isn't going to work esp with PS4 on the horizon.

I could see Pikmin 3 and W-101 boosting sales for a week or two in the summer but nothing except the one two punch of 3D Mario and Mario Kart is going to generate anything like the sales they need.

Even if it means his job he needs to get rid of the basic pack and price the Premium at $250 to get as much of an install base in place as possible,. If they think shifting WiiU's is hard now then wait until the PS4/720 hype gets going and a release date/prices/launch games are announced at E3.

 

[Spieler Eins]

It's a Platinum game, I'm pretty positive it will. Shit, I love all of their games and I'm not even sold on TW101 yet. I'll probably wait for bomba price if anything.

It's their best looking game since Okami, but yeah it will bomb as usual. It hurts, but at least they finally got some good cash in because of the Metal Gear licence.

 

[FreedomFighter]

When is Iwata going to wake up ?...

A console that isn't showing anything better graphically than consoles that were released in 2006, priced the way it is just isn't going to work esp with PS4 on the horizon.

I could see Pikmin 3 and W-101 boosting sales for a week or two in the summer but nothing except the one two punch of 3D Mario and Mario Kart is going to generate anything like the sales they need.

Even if it means his job he needs to get rid of the basic pack and price the Premium at $250 to get as much of an install base in place as possible,. If they think shifting WiiU's is hard now then wait until the PS4/720 hype gets going and a release date/prices/launch games are announced at E3.

I just think they need software. All that graphics and performance stuff means absolutely nothing.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Is there a reason why 3D Mario is being held up as a future champion of the system?

I was under the impression that 2D Mario was much more popular in Japan and there's already one of those on the system.

 

[Mileena]

It's their best looking game since Okami, but yeah it will bomb as usual. It hurts, but at least they finally got some good cash in because of the Metal Gear licence.

Platinum?

OT: I started up Okami HD yesterday for the first time ever playing it. Had to repeatedly hit the X button for this boring dialogue for about 35 minutes straight. That's not acceptable Capcom.

 

[Spieler Eins]

Platinum?

OT: I started up Okami HD yesterday for the first time ever playing it. Had to repeatedly hit the X button for this boring dialogue for about 35 minutes straight. That's not acceptable Capcom.

Key staff of Platinum were the same as Clover Studio's, after they were fired at Capcom.