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[Jamix012]

Which of the Japan-targeted franchises that built the PS3 house are expected to transition to the Wii U? Yakuza? Disgaea? Atelier? Ar Tonelico?

The latter bolded is largely why people expect those publishers to develop for the PS4 and 720.

What handheld synergy? What gap? I'm not sure what you're on about there.

I don't think he implied they're moving, just that they're become more western oriented and as a result losing some of their appeal in Japan.
I don't truly buy the Handheld synergy as an argument but if the Vita's current position is doing anything it's giving consumers and devs a reason to be hesitant about investing in the PS4.
Top of the page: Buy a Vita.

 

[ari]

monster hunter 3 ultimate will solve this disaster.

when is the next big nintendo franchise to hit for the wii U? They really need to pull a 3ds and push something out.

 

[Nirolak]

Well, I can see a perfectly valid argument for why the Wii U will never pick up, but nothing in the Japanese market would lead me to believe PS4 is destined for success.

While there's nothing to suggest the PS4 will have the success of the PS2, is there anything suggesting it won't have the "success" of the PS3?

I mean, just looking at the franchises that sold well on the PS3, is there anything we're not expecting to show up on the PS4?

I guess Bayonetta is gone, but it got replaced by Rising which sold even better.

 

[schuelma]

While there's nothing to suggest the PS4 will have the success of the PS2, is there anything suggesting it won't have the "success" of the PS3?

I mean, just looking at the franchises that sold well on the PS3, is there anything we're not expecting to show up on the PS4?

That's a good point, absolutely.

2 thoughts-

-I'm thinking that 3DS might be more of a competition this time around for 3rd party efforts than the DS was.

- Though PS3 has definitely recovered, I think its inarguable that Sony is in a much weaker position market wise right now than they were in 2005/2006. I'm not sure that adopters will be as patient with PS4 as they were with PS3 if it starts off slow.

 

[Dalthien]

Well, I can see a perfectly valid argument for why the Wii U will never pick up, but nothing in the Japanese market would lead me to believe PS4 is destined for success.

While there's nothing to suggest the PS4 will have the success of the PS2, is there anything suggesting it won't have the "success" of the PS3?

Well, you kind of answered your own question by placing "success" in quotes - indicating that you don't really consider PS3 sales a success. (And you would be right - a system just crossing 9M LTD in its 7th year on the market is in no way a success).

 

[Skyzard]

That's a good point, absolutely.

2 thoughts-

-I'm thinking that 3DS might be more of a competition this time around for 3rd party efforts than the DS was.

- Though PS3 has definitely recovered, I think its inarguable that Sony is in a much weaker position market wise right now than they were in 2005/2006. I'm not sure that adopters will be as patient with PS4 as they were with PS3 if it starts off slow.

Disregarding franchises, I'd say it has more to do with the economy and that they already have a PS3. I really hope Sony realises they'll have to take it to the next-gen in preparedness and delivery with the games, price and insane marketing as well as the awesome console.

The rumour about GT6rologue coming out has me somewhat worried they are a little too laissez faire. I don't think they are so 'confident' that they'd release GT6 on it. Hopefully not that desperate either!

Otherwise it seems that they're really milking their platforms in the early phase and it won't be great to buy at or shortly after launch.

 

[pieatorium]

Isn't that a pretty big understatement, given that Wii had 14 million sellers and Game Cube (and PS3) only had 1?

Just so people don't get the wrong idea- I'm not claiming the Wii U versions of these franchises are going to sell similarly.

But I also think it goes too far to harken back to the Game Cube era which was a decade ago and expect such a huge reversion back.

maybe it is an understatement but 6 of those million sellers were of the Wii_ brand. I don't think any of their follow ups will hit a million sales. I don't believe the audience for these games will make the jump in any significant number.

the one million seller they both share is smash, which this time will also have a 3ds version which may impact sales on console.

Another of those powerful franchise from the Wii that sold well was NSMB but we can see it isn't pushing hardware, it will sell decently over a million in the long run but wherever it ends up will be a massive decline from the wii.

 

[Jamix012]

While there's nothing to suggest the PS4 will have the success of the PS2, is there anything suggesting it won't have the "success" of the PS3?

I mean, just looking at the franchises that sold well on the PS3, is there anything we're not expecting to show up on the PS4?

I guess Bayonetta is gone, but it got replaced by Rising which sold even better.

Resident Evil seems to be a franchise that is weakening, maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but 6 was weaker than 5.

MGS will probably be multiplat next gen. This won't take more than maybe 50,000 sales away from the PS4 version in Japan but that's something to consider. Out of the series I mention this one is probably not really going to lose much strength into next gen unless they do something crazy with the series.

Final Fantasy is a weaker brand than it was when XIII launched, I don't think that's something people disagree on? (Or am I wrong?)

I also expect there to be far fewer niche titles just off the back of higher (?) dev costs. Also I feel like there has been a loss of confidence in Sony off the back of the PS3 and the Vita. To me it seemed like devs willed the console to success simply by releasing games on it even when it was doing poorly. They're not doing that with the Vita and there's a chance they won't do it with the PS4.

 

[Somnid]

Which of the franchises that built the PS3 house are expected to transition to the Wii U?

The latter bolded is largely why people expect those publishers to develop for the PS4 and 720.

What handheld synergy? What gap? I'm not sure what you're on about there.

I'm thinking things like Tales, Musou, some various sports franchises, anime crap, Atlus etc. The type of things that hit the top of the chart and we don't see the week after. I can't really think of any PS3 breakout hits but this type of stuff kept it afloat (in Japan at least) all these years. In terms of handheld synergy a lot of these devs worked on both platforms and I think this helped build some of Sony's player base. But without a handheld to really cash in on they may not be able to afford being Sony exclusive and this incentivises getting into bed with Nintendo.

 

[schuelma]

maybe it is an understatement but 6 of those million sellers were of the Wii_ brand. I don't think any of their follow ups will hit a million sales. I don't believe the audience for these games will make the jump in any significant number.
.

Again- if we take out the 6 "Wii" games, you are still left with 8 million sellers, 7 more than either the Game Cube or PS3.

 

[Sandfox]

Resident Evil seems to be a franchise that is weakening, maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but 6 was weaker than 5.

MGS will probably be multiplat next gen. This won't take more than maybe 50,000 sales away from the PS4 version in Japan but that's something to consider. Out of the series I mention this one is probably not really going to lose much strength into next gen unless they do something crazy with the series.

Final Fantasy is a weaker brand than it was when XIII launched, I don't think that's something people disagree on? (Or am I wrong?)

I also expect there to be far fewer niche titles just off the back of higher (?) dev costs. Also I feel like there has been a loss of confidence in Sony off the back of the PS3 and the Vita. To me it seemed like devs willed the console to success simply by releasing games on it even when it was doing poorly. They're not doing that with the Vita and there's a chance they won't do it with the PS4.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the next MGS game was on the PS3 as well.

 

[ari]

Nintendo really need to lower the price for the Wii U. I am guessing they are strategically timing it close to the other consoles but i don't think that is wise. Nintendo needs to get into stride well before those console launching because of the hype.

 

[H_Prestige]

Wii U has Nintendo. NSMBU will outsell every game shown off so far for the PS4 combined in Japan.

People still clinging to NSMBU.

 

[Nirolak]

That's a good point, absolutely.

2 thoughts-

-I'm thinking that 3DS might be more of a competition this time around for 3rd party efforts than the DS was.

- Though PS3 has definitely recovered, I think its inarguable that Sony is in a much weaker position market wise right now than they were in 2005/2006. I'm not sure that adopters will be as patient with PS4 as they were with PS3 if it starts off slow.

In response to 1.) While the 3DS might be more competition, if the series that sold the PS3 aren't moving, that means they need to lose a lot of their remaining relevance for the PS4 to sell much worse. And if what's popular on the PS3 loses its relevance, is there much in the way of relevant third party software for the Wii U to even fight for?

In response to 2.) I agree that Sony is coming in with a weaker position in terms of brand, but if the efforts Japanese developers made at the end of this generation to fix their development pipelines have failed, then they're probably going to produce extremely little for consoles this generation anyway.

I guess I'm just having trouble seeing a situation in which we agree that:
A.) The PS4 gets the vast majority of relevant third party PS3 series.
B.) The PS4 fails.
That doesn't lead to the conclusion of:
C.) Basically every major third party console franchise is now worthless.

Well, you kind of answered your own question by placing "success" in quotes - indicating that you don't really consider PS3 sales a success. (And you would be right - a system just crossing 9M LTD in its 7th year on the market is in no way a success).

Of course, but let's be honest, it and the Wii U represent what's left of the shambles of the Japanese console industry, so they're still our current bar for living, active consoles.

Resident Evil seems to be a franchise that is weakening, maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but 6 was weaker than 5.

MGS will probably be multiplat next gen. This won't take more than maybe 50,000 sales away from the PS4 version in Japan but that's something to consider. Out of the series I mention this one is probably not really going to lose much strength into next gen unless they do something crazy with the series.

Final Fantasy is a weaker brand than it was when XIII launched, I don't think that's something people disagree on? (Or am I wrong?)

I also expect there to be far fewer niche titles just off the back of higher (?) dev costs. Also I feel like there has been a loss of confidence in Sony off the back of the PS3 and the Vita. To me it seemed like devs willed the console to success simply by releasing games on it even when it was doing poorly. They're not doing that with the Vita and there's a chance they won't do it with the PS4.

Where do you expect those franchises to go instead?

With the way the Wii U is selling now, they would basically having to support it entirely on faith as well.

If they all went to handhelds, well, that's the end of the Japanese console industry, at least from a third party perspective.

 

[Sandfox]

Nintendo really need to lower the price for the Wii U. I am guessing they are strategically timing it close to the other consoles but i don't think that is wise. Nintendo needs to get into stride well before those console launching because of the hype.

I still think that the wii u will be a secondary console just like the wii was last gen though.

The Wii U really isn't overpriced in Japan IMO. If they were to cut the price it would basically be the same price as the 3DS and Vita.

 

[Jamix012]

People still clinging to NSMBU.

That's not what I meant, NSMBU isn't a system seller. My point was that while NSMBU's numbers look poor for the series if were to stop selling today it would probably still sell more than all the current revealed PS4 games combined. NSMBU is not setting the world alight but a 500,000ish game moves the WiiU to the dire numbers we see now I can only imagine what Killzone/Infamous/DeepDown/Watchdogs will do. Only Deep Down really even has a chance of touching 100k in Japan.

 

[Ratrat]

¥25000 sounds good. It's still an all round unappealing piece of hardware atm.

 

[Skyzard]

The Wii U really isn't overpriced in Japan IMO. If they were to cut the price it would basically be the same price as the 3DS and Vita.

It's not even PS3 price though, here in UK anyway. You get a bundle with the ps3 or a wii u basic.

 

[Currygan]

monster hunter 3 ultimate will solve this disaster.

when is the next big nintendo franchise to hit for the wii U? They really need to pull a 3ds and push something out.

MH3U won't solve a thing, I'm afraid. Price cut + Mario Kart bundle looks like a more effective solution

 

[Jamix012]

In response to 1.) While the 3DS might be more competition, if the series that sold the PS3 aren't moving, that means they need to lose a lot of their remaining relevance for the PS4 to sell much worse. And if what's popular on the PS3 loses its relevance, is there much in the way of relevant third party software for the Wii U to even fight for?

In response to 2.) I agree that Sony is coming in with a weaker position in terms of brand, but if the efforts Japanese developers made at the end of this generation to fix their development pipelines have failed, then they're probably going to produce extremely little for consoles this generation anyway.

I guess I'm just having trouble seeing a situation in which we agree that:
A.) The PS4 gets the vast majority of relevant third party PS3 series.
B.) The PS4 fails.
That doesn't lead to the conclusion of:
C.) Basically every major third party console franchise is now worthless.


Of course, but let's be honest, it and the Wii U represent what's left of the shambles of the Japanese console industry, so they're still our current bar for living, active consoles.


Where do you expect those franchises to go instead?

With the way the Wii U is selling now, they would basically having to support it entirely on faith as well.

If they all went to handhelds, well, that's the end of the Japanese console industry, at least from a third party perspective.

Wouldn't that just seem like a semi-logical progression off the back of last gen? Japanese franchises which could sell well in the west were released on the PS3/X360 and made somewhat westernised.
Japanese games that could sell well mainly in Japan were released on handhelds. There were some exceptions where Japenese-oriented games hit the PS3 but with higher dev costs these exceptions are likely to be fewer and far between on the PS4.
Along with the aforementioned weakening of some of PS3's strongest franchises is it so crazy to say that Japanese-oriented third party games will become (or are already) dead?

 

[Lord_Byron28]

WTF? What japanese support does the Wii U have?

Even in Japan people buy consoles to play games. And if it comes down to more expensive ps4 with major games vs. less expensive Wii U with no games, ps4 will win that battle with little effort.

Just because he said PS4's japanese support is weak currently (will likely improve greatly in the long run) doesn't mean Wii U has even worse support. Currently it seems most major japanese 3rd party developers are tied up in development of PS360 and 3DS development.

You also assume that the general population will decide in the next couple years to purchase a new console. When in reality if neither system are that compelling to them they won't purchase a console at all.

While there's nothing to suggest the PS4 will have the success of the PS2, is there anything suggesting it won't have the "success" of the PS3?

I mean, just looking at the franchises that sold well on the PS3, is there anything we're not expecting to show up on the PS4?

I guess Bayonetta is gone, but it got replaced by Rising which sold even better.

I think the far bigger issue is that if the PS4 sells around a similar LTD and Wii U fails to take off the console market in Japan will be really grave. Possibly dividing the western and japanese market even further and possibly even more development pushed to handhelds.

I will also say that I believe Nintendo has slightly(and I stress slightly) stronger relations with japanese third parties with Namco co developing SSB, Atlus working on SMT/FF, platinum games with bayo 2/w101, capcom and se seem to have better relations with Nintendo as well. Sony's decline in marketshare with PSP/PS3 and complete failures of PSP Go and Vita and Nintendo's recent success with DS/Wii/3DS may deter 3rd parties from blindly jumping on PS4 development as they did with the PS3. I highly doubt we will see any significant change. I do stress I expect PS4's japanese 3rd party support to be remarkably similar to PS3.

 

[NeonZ]

maybe when they finally fix a release date for Pikmin 3 or showing some new games...

I don't think Pikmin is going to do anything by itself. Even in the GC, surrounded by other bigger Nintendo games, it failed to be a hit, I just can't see it being enough to move many fans to the hardware. Maybe that's why Iwata is just fine with delaying it, rather than rushing the game to fill the calendar right now...

 

[Nirolak]

Wouldn't that just seem like a semi-logical progression off the back of last gen? Japanese franchises which could sell well in the west were released on the PS3/X360 and made somewhat westernised.
Japanese games that could sell well mainly in Japan were released on handhelds. There were some exceptions where Japenese-oriented games hit the PS3 but with higher dev costs these exceptions are likely to be fewer and far between on the PS4.
Along with the aforementioned weakening of some of PS3's strongest franchises is it so crazy to say that Japanese-oriented third party games will become (or are already) dead?

Well we're only a few steps from dedicated handhelds largely being dead in the West, so it's certainly not impossible for polarization to cause the reverse to happen in Japan.

That said, I feel there's a significant difference between "weakening" and "completely falling apart", and I would expect at least one remaining generation of decline before consoles in Japan started to look untenable based on the sales potential of their software, in the same way that the 3DS is performing mediocre in the West as opposed to being a second Vita.

I think the far bigger issue is that if the PS4 sells around a similar LTD and Wii U fails to take off the console market in Japan will be really grave. Possibly dividing the western and japanese market even further and possibly even more development pushed to handhelds.

I will also say that I believe Nintendo has slightly(and I stress slightly) stronger relations with japanese third parties with Namco co developing SSB, Atlus working on SMT/FF, platinum games with bayo 2/w101, capcom and se seem to have better relations with Nintendo as well. Sony's decline in marketshare with PSP/PS3 and complete failures of PSP Go and Vita and Nintendo's recent success with DS/Wii/3DS may deter 3rd parties from blindly jumping on PS4 development as they did with the PS3. I highly doubt we will see any significant change. I do stress I expect PS4's japanese 3rd party support to be remarkably similar to PS3.

My current mental picture of the PS4 is a system that sells within 2 million of the PS3 (probably trending on the lower end than the higher end) and a Wii U that's a fair bit declined from the Wii. However, since the Wii capped out at ~12.5 million, going down from there starts bringing us perilously close to the sub-10 million range, which as you said, would be a pretty poor state of affairs for consoles in Japan. For the Wii U to at least retain that much though I think it will need at least some third party support (even if it's only a very small handful of notable titles like MH and DQ), but as you mention, they have a few ties going into this generation.

 

[darkside31337]

Just because he said PS4's japanese support is weak currently (will likely improve greatly in the long run) doesn't mean Wii U has even worse support. Currently it seems most major japanese 3rd party developers are tied up in development of PS360 and 3DS development.

You also assume that the general population will decide in the next couple years to purchase a new console. When in reality if neither system are that compelling to them they won't purchase a console at all.

I think the far bigger issue is that if the PS4 sells around a similar LTD and Wii U fails to take off the console market in Japan will be really grave. Possibly dividing the western and japanese market even further and possibly even more development pushed to handhelds.

I will also say that I believe Nintendo has slightly(and I stress slightly) stronger relations with japanese third parties with Namco co developing SSB, Atlus working on SMT/FF, platinum games with bayo 2/w101, capcom and se seem to have better relations with Nintendo as well. Sony's decline in marketshare with PSP/PS3 and complete failures of PSP Go and Vita and Nintendo's recent success with DS/Wii/3DS may deter 3rd parties from blindly jumping on PS4 development as they did with the PS3. I highly doubt we will see any significant change. I do stress I expect PS4's japanese 3rd party support to be remarkably similar to PS3.

And the failures of the Wii U isn't going to deter anybody?

Honestly I'd say its way too early to say anything about the PS4 one way or another.

 

[Y2Kev]

Wii U has Nintendo. NSMBU will outsell every game shown off so far for the PS4 combined in Japan.

Does this really mean anything though? The PS4 has existed publicly for like 9 days. Why do we compare the announced support of a system for sale with one that won't be for sale for another 9 months (potentially more in Japan) and has been public for 9 days?

The PS4's Japanese support utterly destroys the Super Wii U 2, by the way.

 

[Jamix012]

And the failures of the Wii U isn't going to deter anybody?

Honestly I'd say its way too early to say anything about the PS4 one way or another.

I think it'd deter as many devs as the initial 3DS sales deterred devs. So a reasonable amount. The question is can Nintendo make the WiiU more attractive to consumers on their own and therby bringing over some 3rd parties.
Also theoretically if the WiiU is a gamecube-like disaster there's nothing to say the PS4 will pick up the slack.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

And the failures of the Wii U isn't going to deter anybody?

Honestly I'd say its way too early to say anything about the PS4 one way or another.

I don't expect anything too significant to change in 3rd party development. I was noting that Nintendo is in a stronger position post-Wii/DS/3DS than post-GCN and Sony is weaker post-PS3/PSP/Vita than post-PS2. Nothing too outrageous or even debatable about that.


In garnering initial support for the first few years, developers usually go off of the success or failure of the last consoles. Hence why PS3 was never going to be completely dead as it had most major 3rd parties already on the console because of the success of the ps2, I don't recall major cancelled games after the PS3 was bombing for two years.

 

[Jamix012]

Does this really mean anything though? The PS4 has existed publicly for like 9 days. Why do we compare the announced support of a system for sale with one that won't be for sale for another 9 months (potentially more in Japan) and has been public for 9 days?

The PS4's Japanese support utterly destroys the Super Wii U 2, by the way.

9 months isn't a huge amount of time, are you really expecting a hard hitter like DQ, MH, MGS, FF, RE, GT to be announced for sometime even close to launch?
The alternative is are you expecting a slur of smaller Niche titles like Disgaea, Persona, Tales of and Miku to be announced for sometime near launch either?
You'll probably get Hot Shot's Golf. I don't expect them to have anything (bar maybe a cross-gen port or two?) that interests the Japanese public announced for the first 8 months of PS4. Maybe FF announced to be released a year after launch at best.
I'm genuinely curious, do you think we could see anything that would make the PS4 launch period be better than the WiiUs?
I guess we could see some sort of new IP pushed similar to Soul Sacrifice but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[pieatorium]

Again- if we take out the 6 "Wii" games, you are still left with 8 million sellers, 7 more than either the Game Cube or PS3.

Again- one of those already has a sequel on wiiu (nsmb) so expecting it to be part of a turnaround doesn't make sense.

One is the same series that sold a million on gamecube (smash bros)

That leaves us with 6

Mario Kart - This will be big when it comes I'm sure maybe the safest bet there is for the system?

2x 3d mario - Will definatley push some hardware but like I said it's sales were not greatly above gc 3d mario (only ~200k) and were below N64 3d mario

Mario Party 8 - had a sequel on Wii which was already way down on this entry this was in the dying days of Wii so it might get close to a million but I wouldn't bet on it


Monster Hunter - Not announced yet but I would expect a 4u (or whatever they call it) eventually but wouldn't automatically expect a million seller.

Don't know what the one I'm forgetting is.

 

[Jamix012]

Again- one of those already has a sequel on wiiu (nsmb) so expecting it to be part of a turnaround doesn't make sense.

One is the same series that sold a million on gamecube (smash bros)

That leaves us with 6

Mario Kart - This will be big when it comes I'm sure maybe the safest bet there is for the system?

2x 3d mario - Will definatley push some hardware but like I said it's sales were not greatly above gc 3d mario (only ~200k) and were below N64 3d mario

Mario Party 8 - had a sequel on Wii which was already way down on this entry this was in the dying days of Wii so it might get close to a million but


Monster Hunter - Not announced yet but I would expect a 4u (or whatever they call it) eventually but wouldn't automatically expect a million seller.

Don't know what the one I'm forgetting is.

Animal Crossing and Donkey Kong. Super Mario Galaxy 2 wasn't a million seller I think? It got close but I think it was just short.

 

[Nirolak]

9 months isn't a huge amount of time, are you really expecting a hard hitter like DQ, MH, MGS, FF, RE, GT to be announced for sometime even close to launch?
The alternative is are you expecting a slur of smaller Niche titles like Disgaea, Persona, Tales of and Miku to be announced for sometime near launch either?
You'll probably get Hot Shot's Golf. I don't expect them to have anything (bar maybe a cross-gen port or two?) that interests the Japanese public announced for the first 8 months of PS4. Maybe FF announced to be released a year after launch at best.
I'm genuinely curious, do you think we could see anything that would make the PS4 launch period be better than the WiiUs?
I guess we could see some sort of new IP pushed similar to Soul Sacrifice but I wouldn't bet on it.

If we assume there is no time for anything relevant to be announced within the next 9 months that will be releasing within the next 16 months, then where does that put the Wii U, which has a total of one Japanese third party game announced?

 

[pieatorium]

Animal Crossing and Donkey Kong. Super Mario Galaxy 2 wasn't a million seller I think? It got close but I think it was just short.

Garaph says galaxy 2 was but Donkey Kong just short.

 

[Takao]

9 months isn't a huge amount of time, are you really expecting a hard hitter like DQ, MH, MGS, FF, RE, GT to be announced for sometime even close to launch?
The alternative is are you expecting a slur of smaller Niche titles like Disgaea, Persona, Tales of and Miku to be announced for sometime near launch either?
You'll probably get Hot Shot's Golf. I don't expect them to have anything (bar maybe a cross-gen port or two?) that interests the Japanese public announced for the first 8 months of PS4. Maybe FF announced to be released a year after launch at best.
I'm genuinely curious, do you think we could see anything that would make the PS4 launch period be better than the WiiUs?
I guess we could see some sort of new IP pushed similar to Soul Sacrifice but I wouldn't bet on it.

Wii U must be six feet under if you legitimately think 9 months before launch isn't enough time to announce major games ...

 

[Jamix012]

If we assume there is no time for anything to be announced within the next 9 months for something relevant that will be releasing within the next 16 months, then where does that put the Wii U, which has a total of one Japanese third party game announced?

Before I continue this discussion I'm not saying that the Wii U WILL succeed, just that the PS4 won't. A couple of things on that though. I'm assuming (pretty bold) that the Wii U has lower dev times given it's lesser power. Surely also devs need a bit more time to get used to the new tech.
The WiiU is in a dire situation for sure, but then again it has Nintendo's first party, which sells far more than Sony's, especially in Japan. Mario Kart, Pikmin and DQX are all slated for this year. It's not an ideal line up, but it's certainly something. Along with Zelda: WW HD and a potential 3D Mario Wii U will look healthier at the end of the year. FExSMT, Smash and Bayonetta 2 will all do something about the WiiU when they hit sometime next year. It won't hit Wii Levels, but if it sells Gamecube levels by the end of it's lifetime I'd be shocked.
On the other hand if the PS4 has a soft launch Sony can't carry their own console like Nintendo can. Third party are less likely to will the console on as they were with the PS3 due to higher dev costs and lower confidence in Sony.

Wii U must be six feet under if you legitimately think 9 months before launch isn't enough time to announce major games ...

Again, Wii U isn't destined to succeed. I genuinely beleive the Japanese console market will be pretty dead soon with maybe a 6-8 million LTD WiiU. Another question that arises is not only "can they" announce major games to be released 9 months from now but "will they"? The market is japan, bar the 3DS, is in shambles. Could the PS4 change that? I think a lot of devs will take on a "wait and see" approach like I feel they did with the Vita.

 

[Dalthien]

I mean, just looking at the franchises that sold well on the PS3, is there anything we're not expecting to show up on the PS4?

Does it necessarily matter?

I'm looking over the list of PS2 games that sold 500k+, and they basically all showed up on the PS3. Dragon Quest is really the only notable exception. And yet the PS3 is down like 60% from what the PS2 sold.

Dragon Quest - missing this one
Final Fantasy - yep
Gran Turismo - yep
Dynasty Warriors - yep
Kingdom Hearts - well, nothing got a mainline KH game this gen, but PS3 is getting an HD update compilation
PES - yep
Hot Shots - yep
Samurai Warriors - yep
Onimusha - didn't exist this gen
Jissen Pachislot Hokuto no Ken - yep
Metal Gear Solid - yep
Mobile Suit Gundam - yep
Tales of... - yep
Taiko no Tatsujin - missing this one
Warriors Orochi - yep
Dragon Ball Z - yep
Super Robot Wars - yep
Derby Stallion - went portable
Ridge Racer - yep
Yakuza - yep
Monster Hunter - HD port
Devil May Cry - yep
Ratchet & Clank - yep
Virtua Fighter - yep
SD Gundam G Generation - missing this one
Star Ocean - yep
J-League Pro Soccer Club - went portable
Daito Giken Pachislot Simulator - yep
Momotaro Dentetsu - missing this one
Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball - yep
Resident Evil (topped 500k with budget release) - yep


So the PS3 basically lost Dragon Quest - and nothing else of relevance. Monster Hunter basically shifted portable in its popularity (but PS3 still got an HD update of the most popular game in the series), but it was never very big on the PS2 anyway, so that didn't affect the PS3 at all. And Taiko was already under 200k per release by 2004, and the latest entries on PS2 didn't even reach 100k, so that was irrelevant to the PS3. And the PS3 added a few new successful franchises (Gundam Musou, Hokuto no Ken Musou, White Knight Chronicles, One Piece Musou, Dragon's Dogma, etc.) to help replace the very few that didn't make it over from the PS2.

And the PS3 won't even sell half of what the PS2 sold before the PS4 is on the market - so even if the PS4 gets 90%+ of the PS3's biggest series, that still doesn't mean anything in terms of whether the PS4 will sell as well as the PS3 or not.

The home console market dropped a good 20% this gen - there's not necessarily anything stopping it from falling (or rising) another 20-25% this coming generation.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

PS3 had a Taiko game?

 

[airmangataosenai]

monster hunter 3 ultimate will solve this disaster.

when is the next big nintendo franchise to hit for the wii U? They really need to pull a 3ds and push something out.

Are we talking about Japan? MonHun has been there since launch.

 

[Dalthien]

PS3 had a Taiko game?

I didn't think it did, but I did a quick check and it showed up on wikipedia - but I just noticed that it has two games listed as To Be Announced - ha ha ha.

So no, it didn't. But the last Taiko game to sell 500k on PS2 was way back in 2003 - the games released from 2004 and later were under 200k, with the latest entries selling under 100k on the PS2, so that series wasn't a big seller on the PS2 by the time the PS3 released anyway.

 

[Nirolak]

...

So the PS3 basically lost Dragon Quest - and nothing else of relevance. Monster Hunter basically shifted portable in its popularity (but PS3 still got an HD update of the most popular game in the series), but it was never very big on the PS2 anyway, so that didn't affect the PS3 at all. And Taiko was already 200k per release by 2004, and the latest entries on PS2 didn't even reach 100k, so that was irrelevant to the PS3. And the PS3 added a few new successful franchises (Gundam Musou, Hokuto no Ken Musou, White Knight Chronicles, etc.) to help replace the very few that didn't make it over from the PS2.

And the PS3 won't even sell half of what the PS2 sold before the PS4 is on the market - so even if the PS4 gets 90%+ of the PS3's biggest series, that still doesn't mean anything in terms of whether the PS4 will sell as well as the PS3 or not.

The home console market dropped a good 20% this gen - there's not necessarily anything stopping it from falling (or rising) another 20-25% this coming generation.

Well yes, this is why I said a few posts later that:

My current mental picture of the PS4 is a system that sells within 2 million of the PS3 (probably trending on the lower end than the higher end

That's either a 22.2% decline or a 22.2% growth, which fits with your proposed range.

I don't think it's wholly unreasonable to feel a system with this same software line-up in an already very heavily depressed market though is less likely to lose 50%+ of its hardware sales, simply because there isn't nearly as much room to go down while still having any of its software remain relevant.

My argument basically boils down to "It's still possible for core focused third party console software to sell in Japan." If I'm wrong, I'm more than happy to admit it when the time comes, though I feel this will have fairly large impacts on both the Japanese market dynamics and its major publishers, so I'll certainly have a lot to talk about at that point.

 

[Jamix012]

Well yes, this is why I said a few posts later that:



That's either a 22.2% decline or a 22.2% growth, which fits with your proposed range.

I don't think it's wholly unreasonable to feel a system with this same software line-up in an already very heavily depressed market though is less likely to lose 50%+ of its hardware sales, simply because there isn't nearly as much room to go down while still having any of its software remain relevant.

There are many problems with such a comparison, but I do want to point out it is physically possible for a console to sell 50% or less of it's predecessor. Look at the Vita, or heck, the PS3.
In your eyes why will the PS4 succeed with the same lineup as the PS3 wheras the Wii U will fail with the same line up as the Wii? The argument could be made that the franchises that propped up the WiiU have less strength then they once did but the same could be said for the upcoming PS4 lineup. If the PS4 tanks it's first 6 months I could really many of the franchises that held up the PS3 going handheld (bar the big budget, western-appealing ones.) You keep mentioning that the PS4 will have the same software line-up but I don't really think it will.

My prediction is that the PS4 will have an extremely soft launch, making the Wii U's look comparitively reasonable. From then on 3rd party devs, especially smaller ones, will move to handheld or PS3 (maybe PS3/WiiU?) where there is a larger userbase. It would be a situation that would very much mirror Vita/PSP. My point is that if a console launches at 80% of it's predessesor that doesn't mean it will get to 80% lifetime at all. A lack of success breeds a further lack of success as we can see with the Vita cycle (Sold badly initially -> Devs didn't make anything -> continued to sell badly) that can only really be broken if the console manufacturer makes serious moves by moneyhatting/producing high selling games/price cuts. The PS3 managed what it did because devs continued to beleive that it would turn around due to Sony's success with the PS2 and the PSP. Sony don't have that this gen, they have a mediocre selling PS3 and Vita in it's recent history and their own devs aren't equipped to carry them through the market.

 

[Dalthien]

Well yes, this is why I said a few posts later that:

Yeah - I was already writing my post when you wrote that, so I didn't see it.

That's either a 22.2% decline or a 22.2% growth, which fits with your proposed range.dy very heavily depressed market though is less likely to lose 50%+ of its hardware sales, simply because there isn't nearly as much room to go down while still having any of its software remain relevant.

A 50%+ drop for the PS4 would be absolutely disastrous, for 3rd-party dev teams and for Sony. I'm not making any predictions about the PS4 one way or the other until we get closer to release and learn more about it. Your prediction seems perfectly reasonable with what we know right now.

I'm just pointing out that there's no reason to automatically assume that its software must remain relevant. There is the tiniest bit of margin for a lot of the stuff that we are assuming is transitioning to PS4. There is very little room for publishers to absorb increasing dev costs if they are only matching PS3 sales. Heaven forbid if publishers have higher dev costs, and software that sells less than the PS3 iterations - well yeah, the software won't remain relevant very long. Stuff like Yakuza can't sustain significantly higher dev costs and keep selling 500k worldwide. It just won't work.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Are we now just musing the complete collapse of the home console market in Japan?

I'm not sure how the PS3, which will crawl its way to 10M+ isn't considered a success in installed base. I was under the impression that the Wii crawling it's way to 13M was considered a success. Of course, I suppose neither are a success relative to consoles of days gone by.

Other than Yakuza, which is roughly similar to Pikmin or Rhythm Heaven in terms of selling power, those franchises you listed are pretty niche.

I guess I'm confused as to why the benchmark is Nintendo stealing mid tier Japanese franchises instead of Sony having to come up with games that equal Nintendo's top franchises.

I thought the premise was that these mid-tier titles are what have sustained the PS3 all these years to reach its 9M. Most of Japanese development is mid-tier, is it not? Having these franchises on-board provides a steady stream of software on a home console.

Again, my personal opinion is that regardless of the strength of Nintendo's first party - they cannot go it alone. Be that in Japan or globally.

I'm thinking things like Tales, Musou, some various sports franchises, anime crap, Atlus etc. The type of things that hit the top of the chart and we don't see the week after. I can't really think of any PS3 breakout hits but this type of stuff kept it afloat (in Japan at least) all these years. In terms of handheld synergy a lot of these devs worked on both platforms and I think this helped build some of Sony's player base. But without a handheld to really cash in on they may not be able to afford being Sony exclusive and this incentivises getting into bed with Nintendo.

I'm not sure why one would assume these franchises would go Wii U only.

may deter 3rd parties from blindly jumping on PS4 development as they did with the PS3.

Third parties with eyes towards western markets will jump on PS4 development. Alongside 720 development. Just as western third party publishers are.

 

[Nirolak]

There are many problems with such a comparison, but I do want to point out it is physically possible for a console to sell 50% or less of it's predecessor. Look at the Vita, or heck, the PS3.
In your eyes why will the PS4 succeed with the same lineup as the PS3 wheras the WiiU will fail with the same line up as the Wii? The argument could be made that the franchises that propped up the WiiU have less strength then they once did but the same could be said for the upcoming PS4 lineup. If the PS4 tanks it's first 6 months I could really many of the franchises that held up the PS3 going handheld (bar the big budget, western-appealing ones.) You keep mentioning that the PS4 will have the same software line-up but I don't really think it will.

Okay, list out what franchises you feel won't come, which you feel will come but decline, and give reasonings for each of them.

I'll be back in an hour, have to stop by the grocery store.

Edit: And where you think they will go instead of course.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So the PS3 retained most of the franchises that made up the 71 titles that sold 500K+ on the PS2 and ended up with its current "mediocre" "success" of 9M. And the retention of these franchises going forward is inconsequential to the establishment of an installed base for a successor.

However, the retention of most of the franchises that made up the 27 titles that sold 500K+ on the Wii, all but guarantee some measure of ultimate success for the Wii U?

 

[Dalthien]

I'm not sure how the PS3, which will crawl its way to 10M+ isn't considered a success in installed base. I was under the impression that the Wii crawling it's way to 13M was considered a success.

No, the PS3 install base is not a success. Just from systems that have still had software released just in the past year or two, there are 5 systems that have topped 10M+ (DS, PSP, PS2, Wii, 3DS). None of them took anywhere near 7 years to reach that milestone either. And really, the PS3 may very well not make it until its 8th year on the market. Averaging just a bit over a million units per year is not in any way a successful install base, unless we're giving out medals for the guy who finishes 6th in an 8-man race.

You can always redefine the term success to be in relation to its predecessor instead of in relation to the market at large - but the PS3 isn't a success by that definition either. 9M after this many years on the market is substandard for Japan. It's not downright lousy (GC) or horrible (360), but it is substandard. And most certainly not a success.

However, the retention of most of the franchises that made up the 27 titles that sold 500K+ on the Wii, all but guarantee some measure of ultimate success for the Wii U?

I've never once said anything even remotely resembling that comment in any way, shape, or form.

 

[donny2112]

For example, are we expecting:

• Resident Evil 7 to appear on the Wii U?
• The next Tales?
• The next mainline Final Fantasy?
• The next Kingdom Hearts if it ever comes?
• The next Yakuza?
• The next Winning Eleven or Pro Baseball?
• The next Dynasty Warriors?
• The next Atelier or Ar Tonelico?
• The next Disgaea?
• The next Street Fighter?

And so on.

I'm expecting

RE7 - Yes
Tales - Something or other
FF main - Maybe. More likely if it's cross-gen with PS3 to get sales.
KH - Same as FF.
Yakuza - Will there be more Yakuzas after PS3? If so, probably not, but not sure why.
WE - Yes, Pro Yakuu - Maybe
SSM - Yes
Atelier/AT - PS3
Disgaea - PS3
SF - Yes

 

[metalslimer]

Unless Sony can quickly get the PS4 price down below 30k yen the uptake of the console will be slow, but now that I think about it, with Vita looking desperate the PS4 could take back some of the market that has been lost there for people looking for more than the 3DS to play.

Regardless if we don't get a confirmation of more Japanese support at E3 or TGS we'll be able to assume that the system is just not getting anything including PS3 multiplats.

 

[shinra-bansho]

No, the PS3 install base is not a success. Just from systems that have still had software released just in the past year or two, there are 5 systems that have topped 10M+ (DS, PSP, PS2, Wii, 3DS). None of them took anywhere near 7 years to reach that milestone either. And really, the PS3 may very well not make it until its 8th year on the market. Averaging just a bit over a million units per year is not in any way a successful install base, unless we're giving out medals for the guy who finishes 6th in an 8-man race.

You can always redefine the term success to be in relation to its predecessor instead of in relation to the market at large - but the PS3 isn't a success by that definition either. 9M after this many years on the market is substandard for Japan. It's not downright lousy (GC) or horrible (360), but it is substandard. And most certainly not a success.

I've never once said anything even remotely resembling that comment in any way, shape, or form.

Then I highly doubt any home console will see "success" going forward.

The unsuccessful console of the 7th generation's paltry installed base moved 40M units of software for third parties, relative to the successful one's 17M. Yes, they didn't put enough software on the successful one, notwithstanding that.

With regard to the latter part, that's the general sentiment that seems apparent in the thread.

 

[schuelma]

So the PS3 retained most of the franchises that made up the 71 titles that sold 500K+ on the PS2 and ended up with its current "mediocre" "success" of 9M. And the retention of these franchises going forward is inconsequential to the establishment of an installed base for a successor.

However, the retention of most of the franchises that made up the 27 titles that sold 500K+ on the Wii, all but guarantee some measure of ultimate success for the Wii U?

Wait, maybe I'm missing something, but why are you using the PS2 number when talking about the PS4?

You seem to be skipping a step- wouldn't it make more sense to use the PS3 500k number (13)? What possible relevance does the 71 number have, other than to show how drastically software sales as well as hardware sales fell from PS2 to PS3?

If you want to use the 500k number as some barometer of health for a future platform, the number 13 doesn't strike me as particularly impressive.

 

[metalslimer]

Then I highly doubt any home console will see "success" going forward.

The unsuccessful console of the 7th generation moved 40M units of software for third parties, relative to the successful one's 17M. Yes, they didn't put enough software on the successful one, notwithstanding that.

I have doubts whether any home console will even sell 10 million this generation, and I think what happens in a hypothetical where Vita ends prematurely will show if the market slips more back to consoles.