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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
adamsapple

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Thirty7ven said:
Click to expand...



Explain It Season 5 GIF by The Office
 
DeepEnigma

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
adamsapple said:
The tweet might as well be latin to me, but the follow up from the guy implies "good news", for which camp I don't know. My stock trading-fu is not that strong lol.

Click to expand...

Outside of select pump and dumps, I don't believe in these totally not tipped off, promise, hedge fund "bets" if the outcomes are indeed true.

Especially when politicians seem to be exempt from those rules and use shell funds all the time.
 
Last edited:
adamsapple

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
GHG said:
2 gamblers:
  • One person is gambling 1 million dollars that ATVI closes above $91 next friday
  • The other person is gambling 2.35 million dollars that ATVI closes above $87.35 next friday
If the stock fails to hit those stock prices and remain there until next fridays close both people can lose all of their money.
Click to expand...

So it's likely this might be someone like, say, Pelosi with insider knowledge?
 
GHG

GHG

Gold Member
adamsapple said:
So it's likely this might be someone like, say, Pelosi with insider knowledge?
Click to expand...

No, these kinds of options sweeps are not an atypical occurance in the market from hedge funds. If you look back across options scanners you will see similar things every single week.

The reason being that they typically construct these trades in the form of spreads but will leg in over time. So for instance they might have sold some of the 95 calls last week when the premiums were much higher (because the stock was trading higher) and that can dramatically reduce their entry cost. So that trade that appears to have a 1 million entry cost actually might "only" be 700k. Another way to do it is to be in an already profitable short position on the stock and then purchase these way out of the money calls as a hedge. There are hundreds of ways these trades can be constructed but we typically only get to see one side of the equation:






So in summary, follow trades like this at your own discretion and with caution.

Also to further elaborate on my ELI5 in my previous post above so that you have a 100% clear picture in case you want to track how those specific trades end up doing:
  • For person 1 - a closing price of below $90 means they lose all of their money, between $90-91 they lose some of their money, and $91 is their break even price.
  • Person 2 - a closing price of below $85 means they lose all of their money, between $85-87.35 they lose some of their money, $87.35 is their break even price.
 
Last edited:
DeepEnigma

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
GHG said:
No, these kinds of options sweeps are not an atypical occurance in the market from hedge funds. If you look back across options scanners you will see similar things every single week.

The reason being that they typically construct these trades in the form of spreads but will leg in over time. So for instance they might have sold some of the 95 calls last week when the premiums were much higher (because the stock was trading higher) and that can dramatically reduce their entry cost. So that trade that appears to have a 1 million entry cost actually might "only" be 700k. Another way to do it is to be in an already profitable short position on the stock and then purchase these way out of the money calls as a hedge. There are hundreds of ways these trades can be constructed but we typically only get to see one side of the equation:






So in summary, follow trades like this at your own discretion and with caution.

Also to further elaborate on my ELI5 in my previous post above so that you have a 100% clear picture in case you want to track how those specific trades end up doing:
  • For person 1 - a closing price of below $90 means they lose all of their money, between $90-91 they lose some of their money, and $91 is their break even price.
  • Person 2 - a closing price of below $85 means they lose all of their money, between $85-87.35 they lose some of their money, $87.35 is their break even price.
Click to expand...

black comedy GIF by ABC Indigenous
 
FrankWza

FrankWza

Member
poppabk said:
There are plenty on this forum who will claim that the 'magic' of Sony games are lost when PC gamers get to play them several months after launch. Just think that mentality through.
Click to expand...
Apples to bowling ball comparison. Takeaway vs keep away.
Plus you're ignoring IP acquisitions.
Corndog said:
Why did Microsoft buy zenimax?
Click to expand...
To put their key in the door of a stable of working, game producing studios to add and fill out their thin first party roster.
 
C

Corndog

Banned
GHG said:
2 gamblers:
  • One person is gambling 1 million dollars that ATVI closes above $91 next friday
  • The other person is gambling 2.35 million dollars that ATVI closes above $87.35 next friday
If the stock fails to hit those stock prices and remain there until next fridays close both people can lose all of their money.
Click to expand...
Ouch.
 
C

Corndog

Banned
PaintTinJr

PaintTinJr

Member
GHG said:
2 gamblers:
  • One person is gambling 1 million dollars that ATVI closes above $91 next friday
  • The other person is gambling 2.35 million dollars that ATVI closes above $87.35 next friday
If the stock fails to hit those stock prices and remain there until next fridays close both people can lose all of their money.
Click to expand...
So how would you interpret the thinking behind each bet?

Is the 2nd bet effectively an each way bet for the deal to pass or fail? Where - from reading it - it seems like they think the ATVI stock will be above that level once free of the acquisition and normal trading resumes after share buy backs, or even if the deal passes. And presumably the first bet is a deal passing aligned bet, but still with the a chance that ATVI shares still settle above the bet level.
 
GHG

GHG

Gold Member
PaintTinJr said:
So how would you interpret the thinking behind each bet?

Is the 2nd bet effectively an each way bet for the deal to pass or fail? Where - from reading it - it seems like they think the ATVI stock will be above that level once free of the acquisition and normal trading resumes after share buy backs, or even if the deal passes. And presumably the first bet is a deal passing aligned bet, but still with the a chance that ATVI shares still settle above the bet level.
Click to expand...

For both of the trades, because the calls they purchased expire next friday, it's either a gamble that some sort of definitive decision is announced over the course of next week, or a hedge against an already profitable position.

Short term options trades like this never have anything to do with intrinsic value or cashflow. Those things typically take a much longer time to be reflected in a stocks price and if someone wanted to capture that safely they would simply buy the stock. These are short term directional gambles.

BlueLyria said:
So the bet is the stocks are going to go up if the judge does not rule towards giving the PI?
Click to expand...

Yes, but it needs to happen next week.
 
Last edited:
Kilau

Kilau

Gold Member
GHG said:
No, these kinds of options sweeps are not an atypical occurance in the market from hedge funds. If you look back across options scanners you will see similar things every single week.

The reason being that they typically construct these trades in the form of spreads but will leg in over time. So for instance they might have sold some of the 95 calls last week when the premiums were much higher (because the stock was trading higher) and that can dramatically reduce their entry cost. So that trade that appears to have a 1 million entry cost actually might "only" be 700k. Another way to do it is to be in an already profitable short position on the stock and then purchase these way out of the money calls as a hedge. There are hundreds of ways these trades can be constructed but we typically only get to see one side of the equation:






So in summary, follow trades like this at your own discretion and with caution.

Also to further elaborate on my ELI5 in my previous post above so that you have a 100% clear picture in case you want to track how those specific trades end up doing:
  • For person 1 - a closing price of below $90 means they lose all of their money, between $90-91 they lose some of their money, and $91 is their break even price.
  • Person 2 - a closing price of below $85 means they lose all of their money, between $85-87.35 they lose some of their money, $87.35 is their break even price.
Click to expand...


Can you explain the ending of Trading Places to me? I never understood how they made money.
 
drganon

drganon

Member
Kilau said:
Can you explain the ending of Trading Places to me? I never understood how they made money.
Click to expand...
I'm sure ghg can do a much better job explaining it, but the idiot explanation is that Eddie and Dan gave the dukes bad info, took the real info themselves, and tricked the dukes and others into buying lots of orange futures at an inflated price. When the actual crop report was revealed, they bought at a much lower price from everyone except the dukes. Thus making themselves rich and bankrupting the dukes.
 
Kilau

Kilau

Gold Member
drganon said:
I'm sure ghg can do a much better job explaining it, but the idiot explanation is that Eddie and Dan gave the dukes bad info, took the real info themselves, and tricked the dukes and others into buying lots of orange futures at an inflated price. When the actual crop report was revealed, they bought at a much lower price from everyone except the dukes. Thus making themselves rich and bankrupting the dukes.
Click to expand...
I'm still confused how Eddie and Dan ended up rich on that deal though. Or was the point just to ruin the Dukes?
 
FrankWza

FrankWza

Member
drganon said:
I'm sure ghg can do a much better job explaining it, but the idiot explanation is that Eddie and Dan gave the dukes bad info, took the real info themselves, and tricked the dukes and others into buying lots of orange futures at an inflated price. When the actual crop report was revealed, they bought at a much lower price from everyone except the dukes. Thus making themselves rich and bankrupting the dukes.
Click to expand...
I feel I've become jaded by this thread. I thought Kilau Kilau was kidding

Kilau said:
I'm still confused how Eddie and Dan ended up rich on that deal though. Or was the point just to ruin the Dukes?
Click to expand...
They know it's going to actually fall because they switched the report. That's why they all go crazy on the floor when they call to buy. The false report says it going up.
 
Kilau

Kilau

Gold Member
FrankWza said:
I feel I've become jaded by this thread. I thought Kilau Kilau was kidding


They know it's going to actually fall because they switched the report. That's why they all go crazy on the floor when they call to buy. The false report says it going up.
Click to expand...
Haha, not kidding really. It's been years since I last saw the movie but I didn't get it.

Just looked it up and guess I wasn't the only one.

 
FrankWza

FrankWza

Member
Kilau said:
It finally makes sense to me. I never understood what Winthorpe was yelling, that really is the key.
Click to expand...
Those are good explanations. I guess it is pretty complicated. I was thinking you were joking because of all the comments about armchair lawyers in here.
 
S

StealthGoblin

Banned
Corndog said:
1. Naughty dog
2. Bend
3. Insomniac
4. Guerrilla
5. Media molecule
6. Bungie
7. House marque
8. Nixxes
9. Firesprite
10. Bluepoint
11. Haven
12. Firewalk

And there’s other tiny ones and defunct studios.

List of acquisitions by Sony - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...
The nuance is how the acquisition came about. Naughty Dog worked with Sony extensively before their purchase, so did bend and insomniac. Sony funded Killzone and Guerilla impressed with tech so Sony invested. Sony funded LittleBigPlanet, were impressed and bought Media Molecule. Housemarque had most of their IP funded or owned by Sony. FireSprite were working on a couple of Sony IP before purchase. BluePoint had been doing remakes or remasters for SIE for years.

The outliers have been ones where Sony has invested to plug a gap in their studio output.

Bungie - GAAS
Haven - GAAS and cloud development
Nixxes - PC ports and remasters
Firewalk - GAAS
Savage - Mobile

Broadly Sony’s growth has been organic. That makes for a high level of success and staff retention post acquisition.

Xbox’s best example of that is Playground. They’ve been a wonderful studio and Xbox were right to buy them.
 
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