TrueGrime
Member
I'm sorry you've been emotionally compromised. Please fill one of these out, send to the mods, and you should be helped as soon as possible. https://www.armywriter.com/DoD_FORM_IMT_WF11.pdf
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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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I'm sorry you've been emotionally compromised. Please fill one of these out, send to the mods, and you should be helped as soon as possible. https://www.armywriter.com/DoD_FORM_IMT_WF11.pdf
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
gothmog
Gold Member
What would a Chinese CoD even look like?
Stardust_Dragon
Banned
Hey, laugh all you want, but ask yourself, do you think Tencent would take any future ABK games off of either PlayStation or Xbox platforms? Because I've already thought about that question and came back with an immediate no they wouldn't, so yeah Tencent > Microsoft any day of the week for acquiring ABK in my opinion.
havoc00
Member
like crossfire x
DryvBy
Member
Biker Mice From Mars?
poppabk
Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Because the FTC was always a joke, the CMA are the ones with teeth.
havoc00
Member
Here is the smoking gun that will kill this deal, the full documents from the gamers! Its damming.
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havoc00
Member
and like what 98% of the shareholders voted for this deal
Unknown Soldier
Member
Disney voluntarily breaking themselves up would be a relief. They own 40% of American media, that kind of consolidation isn't healthy.
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kvltus lvlzvs
Banned
Luckily, Disney is running out of cash and there looks to be no end to the bleeding. They have (had, like 2 weeks ago) 10b cash on hand, which is cash reserves for like a month of operation
I really want to see Disney die
woahwoahwoah
Neo Member
It's pretty clear MS was never closing over the CMA, so it was beyond braindead of the FTC to file an injunction when they did
They essentially handed MS a free legal victory and a bunch of positive momentum
They essentially handed MS a free legal victory and a bunch of positive momentum
bitbydeath
Member
Some lost faith in the CMA when the Verge reported that the CMA reached out to MS after beating the FTC, of course that was later discovered to be a lie but many only took notice of the first report.
Kilau
Member
HoofHearted
Member
gametimedecision
Member
Was the CMA not bending over for Microsoft all day today?
That report was probably true let’s be honest
Topher
Gold Member
FrankWza
Member
people are calling for meltdowns and coping that never happened and then these two beauts just slide right into the conversation...
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BlueLyria
Member
Like the actual Call Of Duty online, a real chinese only Cod that existed a few years ago.
supernova8
Banned
The only large publishers I could see Sony acquiring are Japanese ones, but arguably those publishers don't even need to be acquired. I could see Sony signing exclusivity deals with them, along the lines of what they have for Final Fantasy so that Microsoft is effectively starved of a bunch of games.
The key difference (the way I see it at least) is that publishers seem willing to make deals with Playstation, whereas none of the big publishers wanted to go exclusive on Xbox so Xbox's only option was to buy them out.
Plus, Sony acquiring publishers would only kill off the last bit of hope they could ever have of getting future acquisitions blocked. On the flipside, I can see your argument, which seems to be "Microsoft is going to buy everyone anyway so Sony may as well get in on the action", but Sony just hasn't got the money for it.
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Chiggs
Gold Member
Wulfer
Member
MS acquiring ABK (once its completed) will make this harder to ignore a GP solution. Sony hasn't been under investigation so, these deals are already done if Sony was wise. They've had a year to think this through and should've had a Plan A and escape clause Plan B. Plan A fell through the roof so, they had better been signing all kinds of deals to keep their market share.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
The problem Sony did was overshoot their dominance in the industry. Since 2013, everyone knows they blew by Xbox already, so them constantly doing deals trying to gimp MS's access to games (exclusive or timed deal) got so out of hand MS said fuck this and just bought people out knowing Sony would eventually get around to more and more deals.
Sony and Activision had been doing Diablo and COD deals since 2013, Sony has FIFA deals, and it was getting crazy where games like Forspoken (never mind it ended up a bad game) would be getting 2 year windows.
During the 360/PS3 days, each system had their share of exclusive games but that was due to regional interest Sony and Japanese games) or Xbox being more American/PC roots focused and getting some exclusives which also stemmed from being out a year earlier so in those early years of each console Xbox got Mass Effect. But as a whole there werent really any huge partnership deals aside from maybe some timed deals for DLC or preorder bonus differences.
Since the PS gaming division clearly makes more sales and profits than Xbox (regardless of whether MS discloses product line finances which they dont for Xbox) it's clear Sony would keep pushing for deals. And western style games like Bethesda (WRPGs) and Activision games (COD) being two key kinds of games Xbox gamers enjoy. So MS management said fuck this, Hey Nadella lets look into locking up these company's games so Sony doesn't get the opportunity to do more annual or 2 year deals etc... They already got COD partnership deals for two more years. They even did a Bethesda Deathloop deal etc...
If Sony and MS were battling each other like the 360/PS3 era when things were closer and neither side had so many significant partnership deals, IMO MS wouldnt be so trigger happy spending the bucks to buy. They'd just keep battling like that old era.
Its not just gaming. It any industry. When you shoot too far trying to dominate too much, you better be the biggest company in the category. Because if you arent, the one with the biggest wallet will eventually do ultra aggressive stuff to fight back fast and hard UNLESS they are the kind of company who would rather quit and disappear than fight the fight. In other industries, they'll fight more on price. And if companies all get into price wars the losers are ultimately the companies dumbing down the price which can be for years. My last company had the top two companies battling where prices were all dropping and each side would claim the other company did it first doing dirt cheap deals. I wasnt close enough in my role to know the industry data to see who started it first, but one of them did. It was either them or us and then the other company had to react back. At the end of the day it didn't even budge either company's market share. So it was really just a drain on costs for both of us. Customer loved it though because it went on for about 18-24 months.
In computing and tech it seems more like giant corps have so much money they will just buy each other out like it's chicken feed. IN gaming, it's not the kind of industry where if one company is losing, they react by making all games $20 cheaper hoping gamers come to them. Not sure why, but companies dont react like two companies battling on the price of soup. But MS is the one with the wallet.
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xellos2099alpha
Member
True, for nearly all intend and purpose, most of the good Sqaure enix gam,e is ps4/ps5/switch exclusive. Only crisis core, a medicore game made it to xbox
havoc00
Member
We may hear something tomorrow…
bitbydeath
Member
ChorizoPicozo
Member
Kyle Bosman
tryDEATH
Member
I never said the process is B.S that is you putting words in my mouth. I said the reason for blocking the merger that the CMA used to block this merger is B.S.
The CMA is the only one that used cloud as the reason for blocking it, even the FTC used cloud as a secondary reason and almost an afterthought in PI and barley fought that issue in court, instead their primary concern was to grill witnesses on CoD exclusivity and its impact on Sony.
The only people that need calming are the nutjobs going in insane with conspiracy theories about corpution, because the the FTC and CMA have presented a weak case and either stright up lost or a conceding now, because they know they will lose as their cases are weak.
Topher
Gold Member
gothmog
Gold Member
Source on that?
James Sawyer Ford
Member
I am speculating. I don't know the exact terms of the July 18th agreement. Perhaps there's some vague verbiage that would allow the deal to be extended automatically if certain circumstances were in limbo by the courts.
But absent that, it's just common sense why the original deal no longer makes any sense if you're Activision. If the market value is $85/share (if the deal fails), and the deal signed 18 months ago is only for $95, then that is now a bad deal. The premium is nowhere near large enough to warrant entire liquidation and no longer having control over the company.
Remember: the $3B figure alone represents 4% market cap of ATVI as well. So that $85/share is pushing on $90/share net to Activision. $95 suddenly seems horrible to the shareholders.
feynoob
Gold Member
I can't handle these dumb takes.
Bobby is not stupid enough to leave 67b buyout for a measly 3b. That is not how business works.
The guy will get 400+m from this deal. He is not that stupid to leave the deal, while it's finishing line.
Even CMA is with them at this stage.
Please don't makes these dumb takes. You guys are smarter than this.
cya
Chiggs
Gold Member
They're working on extending it. Some reasonable people have speculated that Kotick will ask for more money; other less reasonable and more resentful people are speculating that the whole thing will fall through.
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James Sawyer Ford
Member
The dumb take is thinking it’s 67B vs 3B
The company’s fair market value, absent the deal, is likely 60B+
DryvBy
Member
Unless Phil Spencer and co can make Activision's library hurst open, nothing will change. Activision is being bought for COD and COD alone. The biggest portion of COD is their f2p stuff already (this is according to Activision) so you don't even need GP for it, or you didn't since now GP is the new gold. But outside of that, what are they getting? The rights to a bunch of stuff MS has no interest in. They'll throw a few bones and stiff-necked Spencer will wear a shirt with a hidden message on his shelf, but it's going to be the same results as all of their other purchases in the last decade. They can't even manage their flagship game. It's like Nintendo putting out mid tier main Mario games or Sony putting out God of War that doesn't turn heads. MS is in a bad spot because MS is a poorly managed company, but they have a lot of money.
At least the library will look bigger with Activision and Blizzard's content, but most aren't rushing to play this retro stuff as much as people would like to think. Modern gamers are all about new and what's flashy on. It's why stuff like Fortnight and COD BR does well. New and flashy. We'll never even know if COD helps or not because everyone this year is going to be on some form of Game Pass now. By default, it's a success.
Let me put it this way: they have more to give with the Bethesda purchase and they're still (according to them) in a horrible spot in the market.
So yeah, of course GP is going to be harder to ignore. If you want to play online, you're getting GP now. And COD being on it isn't going to make the entire gaming world care. Activision has barely anything with its current management, so don't expect much under this new management.
MarkMe2525
Member
But that capital is locked up in the business normally, and not accessable to shareholders. This acquisition will allow shareholders to access their stocks worth.
feynoob
Gold Member
MS were the only company who was willing to pay that price.
Incase you forgot, MS went them with 82$ price tag, nobody matched that. Then they demanded current price.
So ATVI market cap is pointless here, as no company was willing them to pay them that much.
Even Comcast wanted to do share buyout.
MS here is doing cash.
From a business perspective, MS deal is worth a lot to Activision, as they won't get another offer like that. Any future offer would be way less than the 67b price tag.
(Won't respond to any more replies. Need to be free like a bird)
James Sawyer Ford
Member
The shareholders can liquidate whenever they want. It’s a megacap stock that’s highly liquid
The lure of the deal isn’t liquidity; it’s the pricing premium.
Many shareholders are institutions who wouldn’t want to be forced to sell and realize capital gains unless the premium was well above market
James Sawyer Ford
Member
In early 2022
We’re mid 2023 and the environment has recovered organically through time value of money and market recovery
When the shareholders accepted the deal, they likely were not anticipating a swift recovery due to the scandal and rising interest rate environment
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
I give you credit hoping any idea you can come up with will break the deal.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
I’d just like to know more because it’s obvious to me that the current deal, once expired on the 18th, is not attractive. Period.
I’m not saying the deal won’t go through. It’s likely it will. But there must be some other information we’re not privy to as to why it’s assumed it simply will at this point.
Activision is obligated to be 100% convincted in the deal until the 18th. It’s why they are still fighting side by side with MS. If they weren’t, they’d be considered under breach of contract, and lose the $3B fee if the deal falls through.
But on the surface, Activision holds all the cards after the 18th and it’s why MS has taken aggressive measures to try and expedite as soon as possible. They won the FTC case but still didn’t meet their required deadline.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
At this point of time where MS/CMA are trying to smooth out any last nuggets and Activision has said nothing, there's no way Bobby Kotick is going to pull his trump card, axe the deal, have ATVI stock drop, and hope MS comes back with a better deal or have the stock surpass $95 on its own. It would sap his stock gains and everyone elses.
freefornow
Gold Member
Bobby: "Hey, Amazon. I'm thinking of bailing on this deal. You want to make an offer?"
Amazon: "Sure. Sounds good. We can probably go $100 per share. How does that sound?"
Bobby: "Sounds brilliant. Right up my alley"
Amazon: ""But we will will probably need to go through all that regulatory approval again right? So, what is going to stop you from shopping for a better deal when we get to the last hurdle?"
Bobby: " Hey, Tencent"
Amazon: "Sure. Sounds good. We can probably go $100 per share. How does that sound?"
Bobby: "Sounds brilliant. Right up my alley"
Amazon: ""But we will will probably need to go through all that regulatory approval again right? So, what is going to stop you from shopping for a better deal when we get to the last hurdle?"
Bobby: " Hey, Tencent"
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MarkMe2525
Member
They cannot liquidate whenever they want because when they start dumping stock, the market will be flooded and their price per share will plummet.
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James Sawyer Ford
Member
Most shareholders DO NOT want to liquidate. It triggers capital gains and they lose individual optionality on each shareholder for when they desire to sell
They only want to liquidate if there’s a large premium to current market value
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