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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Alex Scott

Member
The EU pretty much forced Apple to put USB C on its iPhones, which seems like a pretty major win. Wouldn't say regulators are totally dead yet.

Only question is whether Apple will get away with their shenanigans around slowing down transfer speeds for USB C cables that aren't "Apple approved" (ie where Apple wasn't able to get a cut).
Never understood why EU forced Apple to put USB C.
More convenient for people? Was this the reason by any chance?
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
The EU pretty much forced Apple to put USB C on its iPhones, which seems like a pretty major win. Wouldn't say regulators are totally dead yet.

Only question is whether Apple will get away with their shenanigans around slowing down transfer speeds for USB C cables that aren't "Apple approved" (ie where Apple wasn't able to get a cut).
Apple was going to do it anyway honestly, the moved the ipads to USB C almost 4 years ago

They will still limit the speed of transfer it's been confirmed for the base iphone 15

One good thing is the sideloading but haven't seen anything in the iOS 17 beta yet
I need modded apps because i hate ads on my devices
 

supernova8

Banned
Never understood why EU forced Apple to put USB C.
More convenient for people? Was this the reason by any chance?
Something about an EU initiative to make it so that consumers can charge all of their devices with one single (USB C) cable.

Apple's counter-argument was "but what about all the e-waste created by people throwing away their lightning cables?", which sounded hilarious to me, almost "WON'T SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDRENz!" esque. Only problem is that they already changed over the iPad to USB C..... maybe that e-waste wasn't so bad after all?
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Something about an EU initiative to make it so that consumers can charge all of their devices with one single (USB C) cable.

Apple's counter-argument was "but what about all the e-waste created by people throwing away their lightning cables?", which sounded hilarious to me, almost "WON'T SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK OF THE CHILDRENz!" esque. Only problem is that they already changed over the iPad to USB C..... maybe that e-waste wasn't so bad after all?
Worst part os that now the cable that comes with new phones is USB C from both sides
So all the chargers that people have at home are useless, and you need to buy the new chargers creating ever more waste
All of this is just to get more money by forcing people to buy chargers bricks and the companies pay less because the boxes are now way smaller
 

supernova8

Banned
They will still limit the speed of transfer it's been confirmed for the base iphone 15

EU has said it will ban the sale of iPhones in member countries if Apple goes ahead with it so... maybe that's the next big battleground. Hard to tell if the EU really would ban iPhone sales outright as opposed to charging Apple a fine, but in the latter case the fine would have to be large enough (and recurring in nature) such that it outweighs Apple's incentive to ignore the EU in order to make money off MFi certified cable sales.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut

EU has said it will ban the sale of iPhones in member countries if Apple goes ahead with it so... maybe that's the next big battleground. Hard to tell if the EU really would ban iPhone sales outright as opposed to charging Apple a fine, but in the latter case the fine would have to be large enough (and recurring in nature) such that it outweighs Apple's incentive to ignore the EU in order to make money off MFi certified cable sales.
This is taking place at the end of 2024, so iphone 15 and 16 can still be limited sadly
 

hlm666

Member
No it's not, because all revenue from those games go 100% to Microsoft and start ups get nothing
Jesus christ, they get the subscription fee for their service and MS/whoever don't get any of that. You get no games on these services with your subcription except f2p.
 

wolffy66

Member
Hey just how much of a total corrupt cunt is Judge Corley looking like right now?

Look at that, the self imposed “deadline” has come and gone and nothing has happened.

How can this not blow back on her, considering she rushed her ruling based on this date?
It was still an important date. Most industry investors were waiting on the FTC. It was the last major hurdle seemingly and if it wasn't settled would probably have been the end. Most people saw the UK as able to be worked around somehow but if the FTC showed any strength it would have been a problem.
 

Three

Member
Her FTC has been incompetent and useless.

MS was literally able to bait them into filing for an injunction by pretending they were going to close the merger even without approval from the UK.
And in any normal system it would have been the right thing to do to file for an injunction if there was a fear that it would happen but MS and its media outlets have so much sway that they convinced the courts the deal would fall through on the 18th and so they couldn't wait for an August hearing, giving the impression they were going to close over regulators. The courts and the government bent over backwards for them. Now their media outlets like Tom are out there saying it will take up to 6 additional weeks, moving it into August or beyond anyway. Prior to that they were out there saying the opposite.

It played out as I expected it would when the FTC lost the injunction

MS were the ones who stopped the appeal, not the CMA. The CMA wanted a delay anyway. Not sure why. The CMA just apparently agreed to listen to any proposals but their stance may not have changed.

It would be interesting to see MS's other possible lie to judge Corley about this deal being dead if it goes past July 18th. It could be that they won't actually do anything anymore past that date or it could be that they are just trying to get their way..


MS paused appeal, CMA said their stance hasn't changed but they want the delay, CMA said they're considering a proposal, and the 18th deadline was mostly bullshit.

So all things considered, why didn't they just hash out an extension and wait for the August hearing? MS are out there trying to bleed dry the limited FTC taxpayers money for no reason while playing these games of 'bait' with the courts. The courts should have pushed back but they bent over backwards.
 
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We simply don’t know what’s going on right now, but I’m most surprised people are surprised there’s not been some big announcement in advance of, or on the stroke of midnight. I don’t see that being advantageous for either party. For two reasons.

One is that if they announced it was being “extended” it would signal to the regulators that they have more time, whereas right now they seem to have them working at near top speed to get obstacles out of the way. The pressure of that looming date really kicked things into high gear it seemed.

Second is that both gave the impression the deal was effectively over if regulators didn’t get out of the way by the 18th - wouldn’t look too good if they said ‘surprise!’ at 12.01. Would look like leverage. Better either to not say anything, or at least look like you had to sweat over it.

I hope I’m wrong, but I wouldn’t be surprised if their ‘sources close’ story planted in the WSJ was the only true indicator on the matter we get. To be fair, outside of the world of fanboys on either side, that’s probably enough for most people.
 

ToadMan

Member
Maybe they are making an announcement later today

Maybe, in fact I'll go further and say probably.

But the optics of this are weird. The AT&T - DirecTV merger was similar to this and had 2 extensions, both of which were announced publicly well before any deadlines approached.

That inspires confidence that both boards agree the merger is the best way forward. And here we are with silence for this deal.

I said before, ATVI put up on July 11th, an investor press release about a Barbie crossover content on mobile. Yet here we are with an acquisition overrunning and crickets - no "we are committed to this, and so we extend", no "we're negotiating the terms of an extension with MS" even. Investors have zero official information right now.

So from here there could be a few scenarios

1) Announce tomorrow. Based on what any of us know now, this is probably most likely.
2) No announcement for a few days - to me that is ATVI negotiating / thinking seriously about whether to proceed. In this case they're looking at financials and determining what happens to the share price in the event of acquisition termination.
3) No announcement until 2nd August. That is the day ATVI interim financials are due.

Let's think about that last option - strap in for this one....



aYGorKK.gif


4huit1.jpg




Imagine you are Bobby and you have become convinced that ATVI is being undersold to MS and is worth a lot more. More than MS wants to dip for...

You know that as soon as you announce ATVI is pulling out there will be a flurry of action and perhaps the share price goes down - that would reflect badly on the board who'd be accused by investors of not putting their interests first.

But, let's say you know that on August 2 - buoyed by D4 and a CoD MW3 announcement - the finances will look very good. What if, right around that earnings announcement, ATVI announces it will pull out of the acquisition....

Now the share price doesn't go down. In fact, the $95 offer from MS is more like a cork in a champagne bottle and the strong earnings with a removed cap suddenly lets the share price soar. Investors are happily making bank, Bobby is their hero again, ATVI are out of the handcuffs, Bobby and everyone else's shares are worth more on the open market than MS were paying anyway, and an industry sighing with relief is queing up to do deals with a newly freed ATVI.

Oh and ATVI taps up MS for it's $3bn....
 
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simdog461

Member
Maybe, in fact I'll go further and say probably.

But the optics of this are weird. The AT&T - DirecTV merger was similar to this and had 2 extensions, both of which were announced publicly well before any deadlines approached.

That inspires confidence that both boards agree the merger is the best way forward. And here we are with silence for this deal.

I said before, ATVI put up on July 11th, an investor press release about a Barbie crossover content on mobile. Yet here we are with an acquisition overrunning and crickets - no "we are committed to this, and so we extend", no "we're negotiating the terms of an extension with MS" even. Investors have zero official information right now.

So from here there could be a few scenarios

1) Announce tomorrow. Based on what any of us know now, this is probably most likely.
2) No announcement for a few days - to me that is ATVI negotiating / thinking seriously about whether to proceed. In this case they're looking at financials and determining what happens to the share price in the event of acquisition termination.
3) No announcement until 2nd August. That is the day ATVI interim financials are due.

Let's think about that last option - strap in for this one....



aYGorKK.gif


4huit1.jpg




Imagine you are Bobby and you have become convinced that ATVI is being undersold to MS and is worth a lot more. More than MS wants to dip for...

You know that as soon as you announce ATVI is pulling out there will be a flurry of action and perhaps the share price goes down - that would reflect badly on the board who'd be accused by investors of not putting their interests first.

But, let's say you know that on August 2 - buoyed by D4 and a CoD MW3 announcement - the finances will look very good. What if, right around that earnings announcement, ATVI announces it will pull out of the acquisition....

Now the share price doesn't go down. In fact, the $95 offer from MS is more like a cork in a champagne bottle and the strong earnings with a removed cap suddenly lets the share price soar. Investors are happily making bank, Bobby is their hero again, ATVI are out of the handcuffs, Bobby and everyone else's shares are worth more on the open market than MS were paying anyway, and an industry sighing with relief is queing up to do deals with a newly freed ATVI.

Oh and ATVI taps up MS for it's $3bn....
I don’t think ABK will be the ones to end it

Its too much of a gamble that they’d be able to get their share price back to over $95 in any reasonable amount of time.

I honestly think the ball is in Microsoft’s court now.

It’s a bit strange that all the major people have been silent for the last 2 or 3 days on this.
 
I don’t think ABK will be the ones to end it

Its too much of a gamble that they’d be able to get their share price back to over $95 in any reasonable amount of time.

I honestly think the ball is in Microsoft’s court now.

It’s a bit strange that all the major people have been silent for the last 2 or 3 days on this.

Silence before the shitstorm

tom hardy doof warrior GIF
 

KungFucius

King Snowflake
Hey just how much of a total corrupt cunt is Judge Corley looking like right now?

Look at that, the self imposed “deadline” has come and gone and nothing has happened.

How can this not blow back on her, considering she rushed her ruling based on this date?
What? This is an insane take. You think she should be viewed as corrupt because she ruled on a case that had a deadline and because nothing public was done on that deadline by the parties involved in the case she ruled on? Is your fanboyism so strong that you think this is reasonable? This is just ridiculous scapegoating. She ruled on a case in front of her the same way dozens of other organizations ruled on it after a trial that most agree was executed poorly by the FTC. Just because YOU want a certain outcome that doesn't happen, does not mean that there is some evil conspiracy responsible for YOU not getting what YOU want.
 

KungFucius

King Snowflake
Maybe, in fact I'll go further and say probably.

But the optics of this are weird. The AT&T - DirecTV merger was similar to this and had 2 extensions, both of which were announced publicly well before any deadlines approached.

That inspires confidence that both boards agree the merger is the best way forward. And here we are with silence for this deal.

I said before, ATVI put up on July 11th, an investor press release about a Barbie crossover content on mobile. Yet here we are with an acquisition overrunning and crickets - no "we are committed to this, and so we extend", no "we're negotiating the terms of an extension with MS" even. Investors have zero official information right now.

So from here there could be a few scenarios

1) Announce tomorrow. Based on what any of us know now, this is probably most likely.
2) No announcement for a few days - to me that is ATVI negotiating / thinking seriously about whether to proceed. In this case they're looking at financials and determining what happens to the share price in the event of acquisition termination.
3) No announcement until 2nd August. That is the day ATVI interim financials are due.

Let's think about that last option - strap in for this one....



aYGorKK.gif


4huit1.jpg




Imagine you are Bobby and you have become convinced that ATVI is being undersold to MS and is worth a lot more. More than MS wants to dip for...

You know that as soon as you announce ATVI is pulling out there will be a flurry of action and perhaps the share price goes down - that would reflect badly on the board who'd be accused by investors of not putting their interests first.

But, let's say you know that on August 2 - buoyed by D4 and a CoD MW3 announcement - the finances will look very good. What if, right around that earnings announcement, ATVI announces it will pull out of the acquisition....

Now the share price doesn't go down. In fact, the $95 offer from MS is more like a cork in a champagne bottle and the strong earnings with a removed cap suddenly lets the share price soar. Investors are happily making bank, Bobby is their hero again, ATVI are out of the handcuffs, Bobby and everyone else's shares are worth more on the open market than MS were paying anyway, and an industry sighing with relief is queing up to do deals with a newly freed ATVI.

Oh and ATVI taps up MS for it's $3bn....
this is bonkers and not how markets work. Most of the shareholders are expecting a payout, not to be stuck with ABK stock. What happens when they want to sell to get the liquid assets they are expecting? Also I am sure that 3 billion is not just there as an out when it is basically closed. It is there if they cannot close as a risk reduction if the deal could not make it through regulators. All indicators are that the deal can be worked through the final regulator. IF ABK pulls out now it looks like a bad faith move and MS would have those grounds in their case not to pay them the 3 billion. 3 billion, of course, is a small fraction of the 69 billion and will take a long time to procure if they could even win it.
 

wolffy66

Member
If the deal implodes i think it will be because of the extension on the date its finalized, and Activision wanting more money
They won't walk away without another buyer ready. So basically if there's not an issue with approval, there won't be anyone backing away. Too many investors have bought to be bought out. It's just not realistic to walk
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
They won't walk away without another buyer ready. So basically if there's not an issue with approval, there won't be anyone backing away. Too many investors have bought to be bought out. It's just not realistic to walk
Not really, the company is worth more than 95$ now and it's not the same state as when it was bought
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
this is bonkers and not how markets work. Most of the shareholders are expecting a payout, not to be stuck with ABK stock. What happens when they want to sell to get the liquid assets they are expecting? Also I am sure that 3 billion is not just there as an out when it is basically closed. It is there if they cannot close as a risk reduction if the deal could not make it through regulators. All indicators are that the deal can be worked through the final regulator. IF ABK pulls out now it looks like a bad faith move and MS would have those grounds in their case not to pay them the 3 billion. 3 billion, of course, is a small fraction of the 69 billion and will take a long time to procure if they could even win it.
No, Activision can walk out now and get the 3B
 

PaintTinJr

Member
If the deal implodes i think it will be because of the extension on the date its finalized, and Activision wanting more money
Don't rule out judge Marcus Smith just making the CMA report final when their is no evidence of a contract between the two parties and he feels they are wasting the CMA, CAT and the entire world's time on something that may or may not exist.

The silence of official extension will not please him one bit going by his previous reactions, and them having gamed his schedule all for nothing. Could be another hold on to your butts moments from barristers in his presence.
 
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Thirty7ven

Banned
What? This is an insane take. You think she should be viewed as corrupt because she ruled on a case that had a deadline and because nothing public was done on that deadline by the parties involved in the case she ruled on? Is your fanboyism so strong that you think this is reasonable? This is just ridiculous scapegoating. She ruled on a case in front of her the same way dozens of other organizations ruled on it after a trial that most agree was executed poorly by the FTC. Just because YOU want a certain outcome that doesn't happen, does not mean that there is some evil conspiracy responsible for YOU not getting what YOU want.

Are you dense? Is there anything inside that thick skull of yours that will leverage your comprehension skills in order to realize that the “deadline” was self imposed by MS-ABK, and MS used the deadline as some sort of fear tactic, with the judge herself rushing the decision and using the existence of a deadline against the FTC. Do you understand this?
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
Update from CAT
The CAT published the ruling granting that adjournment application on a conditional basis.

On this basis, I am satisfied that the four-stage process that I have articulated is met. I can move much more swiftly to the other factors that most clearly indicate that an adjournment is required and desirable in this case:

(1) As both Mr Beard, KC and Lord Grabiner, KC for Microsoft and Activision respectively made clear, this is a case where all of the parties, all well advised, are moving in the same direction. All are saying unequivocally that an adjournment is the way in which one can both protect the public interest most efficiently, deal with events subsequent to the Final Report most effectively and ensure that one has an outcome that properly reflects the public interest as it stands and not as it stood in the past.

(2) Secondly, there is the fact that there is enormous urgency behind this matter. It is well known, from both the documents in this case and more widely in the press, that there is a deadline between Activision and Microsoft which triggers certain consequences, tomorrow, 18 July 2023. I have no doubt that Microsoft and Activision are being sensible about this – it is a matter for them, of course – but they are entitled to an assurance that matters are being handled as expeditiously as possible. It does seem to me that in this regard, the submissions of Microsoft and the submissions of Activision are entitled to particular weight. When one adds to that the CMA's concurrence that, in its view, the public interest is best served by an adjournment, that is a very powerful factor in favour of adjournment.

(3) Finally, there is the question of cost and the related question of CMA resource to consider. It is obvious that there is no point in incurring the costs of the JR Application, running across at least four and possibly six days in the near future, if that is going to serve no purpose. Over and above this question of cost, there is the question of CMA resource. The fact is the CMA has, entirely understandably, said that they can defend the JR Application or they can deal with the present, on-going, developments. They cannot do both. This is a final and very cogent reason for granting the adjournment.

That is what I am going to do, subject to receiving the evidence from the CMA that I have described.
 
Are you dense? Is there anything inside that thick skull of yours that will leverage your comprehension skills in order to realize that the “deadline” was self imposed by MS-ABK, and MS used the deadline as some sort of fear tactic, with the judge herself rushing the decision and using the existence of a deadline against the FTC. Do you understand this?
The deadline was real. The FTC tried to stall so that they didn't even have to actually argue the merits of the case, and instead just wait them out. It's very telling that people in here think it's so terrible the FTC got "tricked" into having to actually go before a judge and explain the merits of their case. And the bar was lower than that, since they just had to convince them they needed a PI but couldn't even do that. This all could have been completed with more time if the FTC did their job honestly.
 

ToadMan

Member
this is bonkers and not how markets work. Most of the shareholders are expecting a payout, not to be stuck with ABK stock. What happens when they want to sell to get the liquid assets they are expecting?

Shareholders can sell their stock on the open market at their convenience. They did it for decades before today, they can also do it if ATVI pulled out from the deal.

So the option of selling to MS for $95 or the open market for $105. And to sell at 95 to MS, they have to wait another X months. Right now, their money is tied up in a deal that no one can put a date on.

Also I am sure that 3 billion is not just there as an out when it is basically closed. It is there if they cannot close as a risk reduction if the deal could not make it through regulators. All indicators are that the deal can be worked through the final regulator. IF ABK pulls out now it looks like a bad faith move and MS would have those grounds in their case not to pay them the 3 billion.

That is not in the acquisition contract.

The deadline has passed, ATVI have done what they said they would prior to that deadline. The contract provides them with the option to terminate and receive $3bn.

3 billion, of course, is a small fraction of the 69 billion and will take a long time to procure if they could even win it.

It's 4% of the purchase price. And shareholders still have their stock to sell, so in effect they gain 4% on the fair market value for doing nothing except terminating the acquisition.

In fact, Bobby as a minimum should be asking for that 4% increase on the purchase price before agreeing to extend.
 

wolffy66

Member
Activision stock increased like 3 or 4 percent on the day we got news from the FTC. Do people seriously think that was just a coincidence?

If a company agrees to pay $95 for something if conditions are met, wouldn't people be willing to pay $94 for it if it seemed like those conditions were going to be met? This shouldn't be that hard to understand.

And yes Activision is doing well, diablo has been good, cod sales are surging. But the solid price of 95 requires no growth, no risk outside of regulators. It's the main reason.

If the stock price goes above the purchase price then they will have a interesting decision
 

Three

Member
Never understood why EU forced Apple to put USB C.
More convenient for people? Was this the reason by any chance?
I think it was an ESG drive to reduce waste and standardise it like sockets in walls. It makes sense but I agree with Apple slightly that it may reduce innovation.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Why are people convincing themselves that ABK would walkout from this deal?
Is this the new cope mechanism?
CMA basically changed their final decision and gave up.

3b at this stage is worthless to them.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Complete rubbish, she would probably get elected in the UK as PM with her clean cut, intelligent, principled and calm demeanour working in the public interest.

From across the pond, IMO the US system now seems to be repeating the pattern of history of when Britain became a temporary republic because the ruling class did so with zero concern of the masses, that eventually led to the schism of a planned new eutopia democracy in North America by those that had opposed the monarchy of the time.
I don't see that from Lina.
She is basically a puppet for the democratics.
 
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