Maybe, in fact I'll go further and say probably.
But the optics of this are weird. The AT&T - DirecTV merger was similar to this and had 2 extensions, both of which were announced publicly well before any deadlines approached.
That inspires confidence that both boards agree the merger is the best way forward. And here we are with silence for this deal.
I said before, ATVI put up on July 11th, an investor press release about a Barbie crossover content on mobile. Yet here we are with an acquisition overrunning and crickets - no "we are committed to this, and so we extend", no "we're negotiating the terms of an extension with MS" even. Investors have zero official information right now.
So from here there could be a few scenarios
1) Announce tomorrow. Based on what any of us know now, this is probably most likely.
2) No announcement for a few days - to me that is ATVI negotiating / thinking seriously about whether to proceed. In this case they're looking at financials and determining what happens to the share price in the event of acquisition termination.
3) No announcement until 2nd August. That is the day ATVI interim financials are due.
Let's think about that last option - strap in for this one....
Imagine you are Bobby and you have become convinced that ATVI is being undersold to MS and is worth a lot more. More than MS wants to dip for...
You know that as soon as you announce ATVI is pulling out there will be a flurry of action and perhaps the share price goes down - that would reflect badly on the board who'd be accused by investors of not putting their interests first.
But, let's say you know that on August 2 - buoyed by D4 and a CoD MW3 announcement - the finances will look very good. What if, right around that earnings announcement, ATVI announces it will pull out of the acquisition....
Now the share price doesn't go down. In fact, the $95 offer from MS is more like a cork in a champagne bottle and the strong earnings with a removed cap suddenly lets the share price soar. Investors are happily making bank, Bobby is their hero again, ATVI are out of the handcuffs, Bobby and everyone else's shares are worth more on the open market than MS were paying anyway, and an industry sighing with relief is queing up to do deals with a newly freed ATVI.
Oh and ATVI taps up MS for it's $3bn....