Support NeoGAF

[ToTTenTranz]

Oh..

That’s confusing.

-Hey this company that doesn’t sell consoles in your country might make games exclusive to their console.

Great for consumer options *deal approved*

That doesn't make any sense if you assume their regulators are acting in the interests of their consumers.
However if we look at the Corruption Perceptions Index where any score lower than 45% puts you in the range of a poor country from Africa:
- Brazil: 38%
- Serbia: 38%

I don't know. Seems like Sony has a lot of power.

Why would Sony have more power than a company that is 18x bigger?
Perhaps it's time to assume the regulators in developed countries with democratically elected governments aren't acting in the interests of Sony but in the interests of their consumers.

 

[feynoob]

So, if selling to 17% of a 55M userbase doesn't recoup costs. How would giving it for next to nothing to a 25M userbase recoup it? What's the answer to that?

It gives you 9+m(halo5) long term sales. Or 2m-4m sales in the first 2 months. Lower if it's a new gen.

The point you were making is that it releasing on gamepass increases game sales somehow but it has been proven to lower premium game sales. Where they plan to recoup is mostly in MTXs and add-ons.

Gamepass is increasing xbox overall userbase, and attracting new consumers to the platform.
You have 25m people having access to fh5.

You can get extra million sales from them.

 

[sainraja]

I can think of 3 cases

Doing xbox one. Buying Bethesda and Activision. Or locking exclusives like ff.

Not sure what you mean by "Doing xbox one" AND yes, I can see people ALSO getting the Xbox, for games from those publishers but depending on how large their currently library is, I think that will definitely be a big factor in the decision to completely switch over. Not saying it won't happen...I am just interested in the 'Why'.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Dunno why you think its revenue loss when gamepass is generating more money then most of the top games combined.

If gamepass was "generating money" then Microsoft would be shouting its profit numbers through the skies and they wouldn't be hiding its losses behind all the Azure and 365 Windows and Surface business.
Also, Phil Spencer would be telling us actual profit numbers instead of making vague and uncompromising statements like GamePass is very sustainable (for Microsoft's entire revenue stream).

 

[sainraja]

Why would Sony have more power than a company that is 18x bigger?
Perhaps it's time to assume the regulators in developed countries with democratically elected governments aren't acting in the interests of Sony but in the interests of their consumers.

I think Sony has really gotten inside his head so much that he can't think clearly anymore.

 

[feynoob]

Not sure what you mean by "Doing xbox one" AND yes, I can see people ALSO getting the Xbox, for games from those publishers but depending on how large their currently library is, I think that will definitely be a big factor in the decision to completely switch over.

Xbox lost almost 30m userbase, because of xbox one fiasco.

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

And speaking of other large regulators, such as the FTC. Call me crazy, but I somehow do not see THIS FTC under THIS current President setting up a major battle in court against not just Microsoft (one of the few truly big and consistently friendly corporate allies Democrats have), but also a court battle, which would include one of the most powerful Labor Unions in the United States of America as Microsoft's ally, putting at risk a massive landmark agreement for unions in the United States (and specifically the games industry) between Microsoft and the Communication Workers of America Union, which depends on the transaction closing....

The thing is the current FTC is purely ideological. They stated time and time again that "it is about sending a message" rather than achieving anything useful.
There is no reason to block the deal
* ABK workers support it
* unions support
* pro-competition move
* pro-consumer move
Yet FTC might try to do that (granted judical branch in USA works fine for now).

If Idas' theory is right, then Microsoft seems to believe that FTC might try to do that.

 

[feynoob]

If gamepass was "generating money" then Microsoft would be shouting its profit numbers through the skies and they wouldn't be hiding its losses behind all the Azure and 365 business.
Also, Phil Spencer would be telling us actual profit numbers instead of making vague and uncompromising statements like GamePass is very sustainable (for Microsoft's entire revenue stream).

It would need 30+m for profit (extra $100m+).
With Activision, it would need 40+m(due to cod).
Right now it's sustainable.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Microsoft’s merger with Activision has been ‘cleared unconditionally’ in Serbia | VGC

The deal has now been approved in Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Serbia…

www.videogameschronicle.com

In a country where they don't sell Xbox's.

 

[feynoob]

In a country where they don't sell Xbox's.

Yet Russia has xbox. Can't make this up.

 

[Pelta88]

I find it hilarious to see posts about regulators with zero regulatory influence approving the deal. Like that decision wasn't a foregone conclusion with every acquisition and merger that crosses their desk.

 

[Kiraly]

If gamepass was "generating money" then Microsoft would be shouting its profit numbers through the skies and they wouldn't be hiding its losses behind all the Azure and 365 business.
Also, Phil Spencer would be telling us actual profit numbers instead of making vague and uncompromising statements like GamePass is very sustainable (for Microsoft's entire revenue stream).

So where can we find Azure and Office profit numbers? Come on, show us, you clearly seem to know what you are talking about here.

 

[GHG]

In a country where they don't sell Xbox's.

At least we know where they will start selling them after withdrawing all their products from the UK and EU.

 

[feynoob]

I find it hilarious to see posts about regulators with zero regulatory influence approving the deal. Like that decision wasn't a foregone conclusion with every acquisition and merger that crosses their desk.

It has an impact on their market(Sony,pc, and Nintendo). Especially PC.

 

[Pelta88]

If gamepass was "generating money" then Microsoft would be shouting its profit numbers through the skies and they wouldn't be hiding its losses behind all the Azure and 365 business.
Also, Phil Spencer would be telling us actual profit numbers instead of making vague and uncompromising statements like GamePass is very sustainable (for Microsoft's entire revenue stream).

ToTTenTranz For Gaf President.

Also, most wont know what you're talking about so be prepared for some push back.

 

[The_Mike]

It will end with UK CMA being the last country to decide if the deal should go through or not.

 

[feynoob]

At least we know where they will start selling them after withdrawing all their products from the UK and EU.

Fun fact, China and India have more people than EU. So MS isnt losing anything.

 

[Banjo64]

It will end with UK CMA being the last country to decide if the deal should go through or not.

 

[sainraja]

Xbox lost almost 30m userbase, because of xbox one fiasco.

At that point in time, the concept of having your account and a linked library wasn't that big. People were used to basically starting over. PS4/XO to PS5/XSX definitely has nothing like that.

EDIT
I see your point though. One of them would probably have to screw up to that level for things to swing that drastically.

 

[Topher]

In a country where they don't sell Xbox's.

Serbia's response:

 

[DeepEnigma]

At least we know where they will start selling them after withdrawing all their products from the UK and EU.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

The thing is the current FTC is purely ideological. They stated time and time again that "it is about sending a message" rather than achieving anything useful.
There is no reason to block the deal
* ABK workers support it
* unions support
* pro-competition move
* pro-consumer move
Yet FTC might try (granted judical branch in USA works fine for now)

Oh yes, nothing screams pro-competition and pro-consumer any more than a $1850B company blocking their $100B competitor from accessing a major common supplier by purchasing all of the latter's shares with a 28% premium over their current stock price.

There is absolutely no reason to stop this deal. I mean just two weeks ago the FTC released a statement about how they're going to be more rigorous enforcing the ban of Unfair Methods of Competition.

Unfair methods of competition, the policy statement explains, are tactics that seek to gain an advantage while avoiding competing on the merits, and that tend to reduce competition in the market.

But don't worry people. I'm pretty sure the FTC really believes that Microsoft using Azure, Office and Windows money (the Xbox division never made $70B in its entire existence, let alone having that amount lying around) to block Sony's gaming console from getting 3rd party software providers is a perfect form of "competing on the merits".

And if the FTC doesn't believe so, it's because big bad Sony put lies and deception in their heads. I totally know this because my favorite youtube lawyer said so in a video last week.

 

[feynoob]

It will end with UK CMA being the last country to decide if the deal should go through or not.

Should be fair
The Yankees can't be trusted. They called the most popular sport in the world "Soccer".
That is a great sin to the world.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

So where can we find Azure and Office profit numbers? Come on, show us, you clearly seem to know what you are talking about here.

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2022-Q3/press-release-webcast

Meh, they hide it behind all Windows, Surface and advertising sales. Same shit.

 

[feynoob]

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2022-Q3/press-release-webcast

Meh, they hide it behind all Windows, Surface and advertising sales. Same shit.

I am shocked that a big tech lumps all their revenue together.

 

[pasterpl]

http://[URL]https://www.videogamesc...-million-players-before-its-official-release/

[/URL]

This Article was published week before the release.

 

[Topher]

This Article was published week before the release.

Which is what was being talked about.

 

[Pelta88]

I am shocked that a big tech lumps all their revenue together.

When you have zero idea of how Microsoft reported XBOX financials before 2013's debacle...

 

[ToTTenTranz]

I am shocked that a big tech lumps all their revenue together.

It's super convenient for Phil to declare GamePass as "sustainable".

 

[feynoob]

It's super convenient for Phil to declare GamePass as "sustainable".

And it's very convenient for someone like you to declare it as a loss.

 

[feynoob]

When you have zero idea of how Microsoft reported XBOX financials before 2013's debacle...

Right. It's not like there was someone else there.

On February 4, 2014, Nadella became CEO of Microsoft, the third person to hold the office in the company's nearly 40-year history, after company cofounder Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer.

 

[Kiraly]

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2022-Q3/press-release-webcast

Meh, they hide it behind all Windows, Surface and advertising sales. Same shit.

This is still just revenue so I ask again, where can I find the profit numbers for those divisions? You seem to imply that the lack of profit numbers of the Xbox division is because they are hidden away so clearly that should mean other profit numbers from other divisions are available and not hidden. Where are they? I'll wait.

 

[Swift_Star]

The thing is the current FTC is purely ideological.

 

[feynoob]

The thing is the current FTC is purely ideological. They stated time and time again that "it is about sending a message" rather than achieving anything useful.

Yaya, we like big techs now. You hear that Google. People love you now.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

When you have zero idea of how Microsoft reported XBOX financials before 2013's debacle...

For the ones without context, Microsoft used to report the Xbox earnings numbers as "Computing and Gaming Hardware".
After the XBox One, they decided to hide the Xbox earnings behind Windows.
It used to look like this:

This is still just revenue so I ask again, where can I find the profit numbers for those divisions? You seem to imply that the lack of profit numbers of the Xbox division is because they are hidden away so clearly that should mean other profit numbers from other divisions are available and not hidden. Where are they? I'll wait.

It's okay man, you tried.

The "Productivity and Business" (Office 365) and "Intelligent Cloud" (Azure) have a ~55% cost over revenue.

But somehow the segment that has Windows and GamePass gets a much higher 66% cost over revenue. Yes I'm sure GamePass is turning loads of profit and it's the Windows division that's holding the segment back. It's not like virtually every non-Apple PC sold in the market pays Microsoft for a Windows license.

 

[pasterpl]

Which is what was being talked about.

Fh5 sold 4 mln copies before release.

 

[Three]

Xbox Game Pass significantly increases game sales and playtime says Microsoft​

https://www.windowscentral.com/xbox-game-pass-increases-game-sales-and-playtime-says-microsoft

I thought we were over this. It's windows central and how they've interpreted it. It doesn't increase game sales especially for any big budget exclusive. Look at what MS are telling regulators:

MS: "And as the financial model shows, adding Activision content to Game Pass is not without cost to the existing business, which suffers a []% cannibalization rate of Xbox game sales"

Gamepass is good for marketing and exposure of lesser known games, not the big budget ones. It can increase franchise sales too. For example it can increase sales of other games in a franchise when one is offered on gamepass and people play and enjoy it then buy a sequel that's not on gamepass. It can increase coverage of lesser known games because of MS marketing with gamepass but it's not going to increase sales of an individual big budget game offered on gamepass or a franchise that has all its games there.

I am aware, hence the "until recently".

Doesn't make sense though. PS Now isn't recent, it was available during the PS3 gen. instead of saying MS does not allow PS+ extra/premium formerly known as PS Now, they said MS does not allow PS+. So it's not online multiplayer that they had to offer, it's obviously referring to the renamed games subscription service in response to the other game subscription being offered on PS.

 

[Topher]

Fh5 sold 4 mln copies before release.

No, it didn't. FH 5 reached 4.5 players at launch. That's not sold.

Forza Horizon 5 reaches 4.5 million players, biggest launch for Xbox Game Studios ever

The critically acclaimed open world racing title is off to a strong start.

www.windowscentral.com

 

[CatLady]

I remembered your user: you're @kingfey
That explains A LOT.

Everyone has known that for several weeks. It's not really the big gotcha you think it is.

 

[pasterpl]

No, it didn't. FH 5 reached 4.5 players at launch. That's not sold.

http://[URL]https://www.windowscentral.com/forza-horizon-5-4-5-million-players

[/URL]

On 8th November, we saw just over four million users on the game’s leaderboard. So, you can deduce that at least four million copies of the game were sold via the Premium Edition

https://traxion.gg/forza-horizon-5-is-16th-in-the-sales-charts-but-thats-not-the-point/

+approx 3 mln steam sales

In addition

https://www.eurogamer.net/forza-horizon-5-has-more-than-10-million-players

 

[ChuckeRearmed]

Oh yes, nothing screams pro-competition and pro-consumer any more than a $1850B company blocking their $100B competitor from accessing a major common supplier by purchasing all of the latter's shares with a 28% premium over their current stock price.

Microsoft spending $$$ in attempt to gain more even market share in console market and Sony's leveraging its market share to get cheaper exclusive deals are not different approaches. Sony asking the companies to pay cross-play tax was an anti-competitive and anti-consumer move though.

The fact is that even after that nobody expects Xbox to sell more than Playstation due to its advantage in the markets outside of USA. In some european countries it has like 70% of the market share. That's already a borderline monopoly at this point in those countries.

ABK deal will make market more competitive, not less. Granted Sony will just increase the prices again and people will buy it anyway

P.S. the truth is that when people online talk "fair competition" it is about "Xbox should compete with Sony fairly but not leveraging their advantages, while Sony can use theirs"

 

[Topher]

In addition

https://www.eurogamer.net/forza-horizon-5-has-more-than-10-million-players

From the eurogamer article you linked:

"Forza Horizon 5 looked like a hit even before it came out, when nearly one million people were already playing via early access on PC and Xbox ahead of the 9th November street date."

 

[Ezekiel_]

Microsoft spending $$$ in attempt to gain more even market share in console market and Sony's leveraging its market share to get cheaper exclusive deals are not different approaches. Sony asking the companies to pay cross-play tax was an anti-competitive and anti-consumer move though.

The fact is that even after that nobody expects Xbox to sell more than Playstation due to its advantage in the markets outside of USA. In some european countries it has like 70% of the market share. That's already a borderline monopoly at this point in those countries.

ABK deal will make market more competitive, not less. Granted Sony will just increase the prices again and people will buy it anyway

Marketshare should be earned, not bought. That's the bottom line.

 

[Pelta88]

When you see people in 2022 still trying to backflip their way into a narrative where player count on a £1 service, equates to copies sold at retail.

 

[FoxMcChief]

How soon after the deal is inevitably done should we expect to see the past library of games added to Game Pass?

 

[HeisenbergFX4]

When you see people in 2022 still trying to backflip their way into a narrative where player count on a £1 service, equates to copies sold at retail.

I know.

Its almost as funny as people in 2022 still calling it a $1 service

 

[Topher]

How soon after the deal is inevitably done should we expect to see the past library of games added to Game Pass?

Pretty sure Bethesda stuff was ready to go on Game Pass right away.

I know.

Its almost as funny as people in 2022 still calling it a $1 service

People love their hyperbole, don't they?

 

[//DEVIL//]

Microsoft’s merger with Activision has been ‘cleared unconditionally’ in Serbia | VGC

The deal has now been approved in Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Serbia…

www.videogameschronicle.com

That's it. it's game over Sony. your fate has been decided. in the country where no one probably ever bought a legit game AND does not sell Xbox there in the first place.

I am assuming MS paid the higher-up 100$ there and called it a day lol.

(btw, I am joking in everything I just said lol)

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Guys don't fight. Xbox is going to fuck up anyway.

 

[feynoob]

Guys don't fight. Xbox is going to fuck up anyway.