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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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ToTTenTranz

Banned


"Microsoft is ready to challenge the FTC" as opposed to what? Microsoft claiming to not be ready to go to court?
It's news if the FTC files the lawsuit. It's also news only if Microsoft drops the acquisition.

But claiming that a $1850 Billion corporation is ready to go to court? Wow you don't say. I'm so surprised. Who would've thought Microsoft has lawyers and/or hires a law firm. Wow.

These highly editorialized "news" are so ridiculous sometimes.
 
Cracking Up Lol GIF



Wait, so the three of you all believe that all of the regulator's corresponding countries is above such things? Please tell me the three of you aren't so naive as to believe that politics are exclusive to the US?

Routinely accuses others of being paid shills of Microsoft. Check.

Is never able to intelligently convey a valid point or argument. Check.

Upon reading a comment that can't be competently countered, and proceed to post meme.

It's almost as if you three were simply following a script or playbook. You guys gotta spread em out a bit more, and vary them a bit, or else people might figure you out.
 
Wait, so the three of you all believe that all of the regulator's corresponding countries is above such things? Please tell me the three of you aren't so naive as to believe that politics are exclusive to the US?

Routinely accuses others of being paid shills of Microsoft. Check.

Is never able to intelligently convey a valid point or argument. Check.

Upon reading a comment that can't be competently countered, and proceed to post meme.

It's almost as if you three were simply following a script or playbook. You guys gotta spread em out a bit more, and vary them a bit, or else people might figure you out.

I'll go ask those intelligence agencies what they think :messenger_tears_of_joy:
 
And your idea of an intelligent point is what? That the UK intelligence agency (which is what in your mind? MI5? :messenger_tears_of_joy:) are going to pressure the CMA over ABK?

There is no intelligent counter point to that except to laugh at your idiocy.
No you twit. As I've already stated twice now. To assume that the regulatory process is apt to be affected by outside factors such as politics only in the US. But to also assume that the EU/UK is somehow above such things is the only display of idiocy here.

But even if we brush all that aside for a moment. Let's be honest here. You haven't posted an intelligent comment in this thread yet. So we both know that "laughing" is about all you're capable of. So allow me to give you the proverbiall pat on the head and carry on.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
No you twit. As I've already stated twice now. To assume that the regulatory process is apt to be affected by outside factors such as politics only in the US. But to also assume that the EU/UK is somehow above such things is the only display of idiocy here.

But even if we brush all that aside for a moment. Let's be honest here. You haven't posted an intelligent comment in this thread yet. So we both know that "laughing" is about all you're capable of. So allow me to give you the proverbiall pat on the head and carry on.
MI6 just called, they told me not to listen to your mean comments because you wank to granny porn.
 

Godot25

Banned
"Microsoft is ready to challenge the FTC" as opposed to what? Microsoft claiming to not be ready to go to court?
It's news if the FTC files the lawsuit. It's also news only if Microsoft drops the acquisition.

But claiming that a $1850 Billion corporation is ready to go to court? Wow you don't say. I'm so surprised. Who would've thought Microsoft has lawyers and/or hires a law firm. Wow.

These highly editorialized "news" are so ridiculous sometimes.
It's not unusual to back out of deal when FTC sues. So it is important information that's for sure. Especially since there were rumors not that long ago that Microsoft is "annoyed" about all things that they are going through because of this deal and many people came into conclusion that if it will go to court, Microsoft would rather pay 3 billion penalty and dump this deal.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
I'm not sure what you mean by Activision won't change that when it is a stated aim for MS with the purchase.
Activision compared to entire gaming market is miniscule. It won't change the needle that much, considering how much competitive the market currently. From console, to PC to mobile.

It's why, it's hard to block this deal.


What I mean is as time goes on the courts will see that some of the arguments MS have given regulators will fall apart if it's stretched beyond 2023. The biggest ones being loss of marketshare in the UK, subscriptions being small in comparison, cloud being a non-profitable non-existent market, and COD possibly being in decline.
It can go both ways.
Currently, PS market share is expanding at faster pace, due to how much investment they had on their system.

From 2020 to 2022, only one company had a strong market, while the other had dry months, especially 2022.

This will help MS case, as to why they need this deal (we know it's bulshit, but the data shows their point).

The only negative side for MS would be COd importance, as the franchise just made $1b in 10 days. That can play against them.

Marketshare hasn't fallen in the UK.
It did.
XOne has sold more than 4.8 million units.
Vs
The latest generation of Playstation console, the PS4, has sold almost 5.4 million consoles in the UK between 2013 and 2018.

Compared to x360.
United Kingdom8.4 million as of June 27, 2013
That is a big decline for the brand in UK.
The ps4 still sold more than that, as the last data was in 2018.

Right now ps5 sold 2m consoles in UK, just 2 years in.

You also need to account fifa marketing, COD marketing during PS period, and switch rise, plus xbox one failure.

These are the reason why they are losing UK market share.


Cloud At the moment required investment and MS believed in it enough to the point where they were sending silicon to server blades instead of consoles. They are absolutely using azure centres for housing and maintaining that hardware and the non profitable nature of it would all but disappear once that initial investment phase is over.
Except Xcloud/cloud gaming doesn't bring in money. Its a subsidized business by MS. They are making a loss here, without any generated revenue.
Doesn't matter how much consoles they send there, xcloud brings 0 money to them.

So far, xcloud is free since you are getting xbox live gold, EA play both, and console/PC game pass with ultimate.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Wait, so the three of you all believe that all of the regulator's corresponding countries is above such things? Please tell me the three of you aren't so naive as to believe that politics are exclusive to the US?
MS isnt bigger than uK and EU. They have alot to lose.
In fact, UK and EU can use that against MS and allow other business to make similar products.
So No, MS isnt stupid as you make it out to be.

Routinely accuses others of being paid shills of Microsoft. Check.
Anyone with insane arguments like that sounds like a shill.

Is never able to intelligently convey a valid point or argument. Check.
Just like you did now?

Upon reading a comment that can't be competently countered, and proceed to post meme.
Because it's absurd, that someone is able to make something like that, with no thought process.

It's almost as if you three were simply following a script or playbook. You guys gotta spread em out a bit more, and vary them a bit, or else people might figure you out.
Alanis Morissette Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 

feynoob

Gold Member
No you twit. As I've already stated twice now. To assume that the regulatory process is apt to be affected by outside factors such as politics only in the US. But to also assume that the EU/UK is somehow above such things is the only display of idiocy here.
Read the ftc current agenda, especially the boss of the ftc.
Her current aim to stop big techs dominance. As to her, big tech is bad guys.

I dont disagree with her. It's just that she is politically motivated here.

EU and UK aren't like that.
 

Three

Member
Activision compared to entire gaming market is miniscule. It won't change the needle that much, considering how much competitive the market currently. From console, to PC to mobile.

It's why, it's hard to block this deal.



It can go both ways.
Currently, PS market share is expanding at faster pace, due to how much investment they had on their system.

From 2020 to 2022, only one company had a strong market, while the other had dry months, especially 2022.

This will help MS case, as to why they need this deal (we know it's bulshit, but the data shows their point).

The only negative side for MS would be COd importance, as the franchise just made $1b in 10 days. That can play against them.


It did.

Vs


Compared to x360.

That is a big decline for the brand in UK.
The ps4 still sold more than that, as the last data was in 2018.

Right now ps5 sold 2m consoles in UK, just 2 years in.

You also need to account fifa marketing, COD marketing during PS period, and switch rise, plus xbox one failure.

These are the reason why they are losing UK market share.



Except Xcloud/cloud gaming doesn't bring in money. Its a subsidized business by MS. They are making a loss here, without any generated revenue.
Doesn't matter how much consoles they send there, xcloud brings 0 money to them.

So far, xcloud is free since you are getting xbox live gold, EA play both, and console/PC game pass with ultimate.
But why are you looking at 2018 and PS4 data when it's 2022 and PS5 and XS have released? Xbox is currently not losing marketshare in the UK in any way. At the end of 2023 it would be even more difficult to bullshit the courts with legacy sales.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed
But why are you looking at 2018 and PS4 data when it's 2022 and PS5 and XS have released? Xbox is currently not losing marketshare in the UK in any way. At the end of 2023 it would be even more difficult to bullshit the courts with legacy sales.
You can also argue that they were only 600k units behind the PS4 in the UK with an anaemic first party, but they’ve now added Zenimax, Obsidian, Double Fine, Ninja Theory etc. If anything that just proves how powerful Xbox’s mindshare is in the UK, that it was essentially neck and neck with the PS4 with such a disparity in quality exclusive games. And with Sony also having exclusive marketing rights to CoD AND FIFA, it was still that tight.
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
It is obvious Sony wants to block this deal. I don't think there is anything hypocritical about that. If we are going to call out bullshit then it is just as easy to point to Phil Spencer's public words committing to PlayStation indefinitely and yet behind the scenes there is a 10 year time limit. Plenty of bullshit to go around if you ask me.

There’s nothing inconsistent with saying you want to keep the franchise multiplatform indefinitely and being hesitant to commit to a lifetime legally binding commitment.

There’s no contract promising lifetime Minecraft on PlayStation and yet it remains multiplatform pretty much a decade after purchase. Include spin-offs.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
But why are you looking at 2018 and PS4 data when it's 2022 and PS5 and XS have released? Xbox is currently not losing marketshare in the UK in any way. At the end of 2023 it would be even more difficult to bullshit the courts with legacy sales.
I just showed you the entire xbox one sales for 2022 vs ps4 numbers as of 2018.
If 2018 numbers is higher than the entire xbox one sales, then that indicates market share loss, as ps4 sold alot in 2018-2022.

This is important, because both companies can't releases more than the forecast of these numbers.

MS has to slowly gain back those lost sales from xbox 360 to xbox one. And that would take time.

While PS5 on other hand, has a good trajectory, due to ps4 numbers, and it could even surpass those numbers.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
You can also argue that they were only 600k units behind the PS4 in the UK with an anaemic first party, but they’ve now added Zenimax, Obsidian, Double Fine, Ninja Theory etc. If anything that just proves how powerful Xbox’s mindshare is in the UK, that it was essentially neck and neck with the PS4 with such a disparity in quality exclusive games. And with Sony also having exclusive marketing rights to CoD AND FIFA, it was still that tight.
It's millions at this point.
MS has alot of catching to do.

Ps5 is selling like hot cakes right now, and Bethesda purchase were recent.

While that can change some numbers, it's not enough.
 

Three

Member
I just showed you the entire xbox one sales for 2022 vs ps4 numbers as of 2018.
If 2018 numbers is higher than the entire xbox one sales, then that indicates market share loss, as ps4 sold alot in 2018-2022.
Who the hell is buying PS4s or xbox ones for the last 2 years? PS4 did not sell a lot. Sony only manufactured 1M PS4 globally. Why ignore the UK market share gains for Xbox series to suggest xbox is losing marketshare there?
This is important, because both companies can't releases more than the forecast of these numbers.
Why would it be forcasts? They already have 2 years of data to show that xbox isn't losing marketshare. MS actually used a forcast to present to the regulators. They said they are forecasting to lose marketshare in the UK. It was complete nonsense. Come the end of 2023 it will be very evident that it was complete nonsense.

At the end of 2023 they would have even more data, 3yrs, to show that xbox isn't losing marketshare at all. Especially once they actually start releasing games.
 
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ReBurn

Gold Member
It's not unusual to back out of deal when FTC sues. So it is important information that's for sure. Especially since there were rumors not that long ago that Microsoft is "annoyed" about all things that they are going through because of this deal and many people came into conclusion that if it will go to court, Microsoft would rather pay 3 billion penalty and dump this deal.
I'm just puzzled as to why people think an FTC lawsuit is such a big deal. The FTC has no power at all. They only way they can take any action at all is to file a lawsuit.

The $3 billion breakup fee being payable even if the deal falls through for regulatory reasons is the incentive not to dump the deal. People who came to the conclusion that Microsoft would just walk away in annoyance if the FTC sues are engaging in wishful thinking or operating from a position of ignorance. The only real incentive to walk away is if a regulatory body ends up with an enforceable injunction that makes ABK worth less to Microsoft than the acquisition offer or the whole deal is blocked and Microsoft fails to overturn on appeal.

Having to hand over $3 billion in cash is a contractual incentive to go to court to fight for the deal, which is why it's in there. It's worth spending tens of millions in legal fees to try to get something instead of spending 3 thousand million to shrug your shoulders and get nothing.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
Who the hell is buying PS4s or xbox ones for the last 2 years? Why ignore the market share gains for Xbox series to suggest xbox is losing marketshare?
I am showing you ss to why xbox lost the market share. How hard to not understand that.
Current market share is the result of that.

Why would it be forcasts? They already have 2 years of data to show that xbox isn't losing marketshare. MS actually used a forcast to present to the regulators. They said they are forecasting to lose marketshare in the UK. It was complete nonsense. Come the end of 2023 it will be very evident that it was complete nonsense.

At the end of 2023 they would have even more data, 3yrs, to show that xbox isn't losing marketshare at all. Especially once they actually start releasing games.
Have you see xbox one vs ps4, and now xbox series vs Ps5?

MS isnt gaining more market, while PS and switch are gaining more.

MS is getting left behind here. They are still being affected by that xbox one fiasco.

It will take time for that to go away. And by the time MS gets their shit together, Switch and PS would be far a head of them.
 

feynoob

Gold Member
I'm just puzzled as to why people think an FTC lawsuit is such a big deal. The FTC has no power at all. They only way they can take any action at all is to file a lawsuit.
Ftc lawsuit can potential lock MS in unfavorable position, depending on the result.

Worst case scenario is 10 years ban on mergers and acquisition, which will require ftc approval.
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
Ftc lawsuit can potential lock MS in unfavorable position, depending on the result.

Worst case scenario is 10 years ban on mergers and acquisition, which will require ftc approval.
Of course the result of an FTC lawsuit could be unfavorable to Microsoft. It could be also be unfavorable to the FTC if they over reach and end up with an outcome that limits their legal options in future cases. Literally what thing about this deal is illegal to the point that Microsoft could be banned from acquisitions for 10 years? You've maybe been listening to resetera legal analysis too much. No need to go full on hyperbole.

You also don't seem understand the FTC and what they can and can't do. The FTC has no power. Their approval for mergers and acquisitions is not required. Literally the only action they can take is to sue to block. FTC lawsuits aren't extraordinary at all.
 
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Three

Member
I am showing you ss to why xbox lost the market share. How hard to not understand that.
Current market share is the result of that.
It seems you are mixing up past, present and future tense in your arguments. MS has said to the regulators that it forcasts a loss in marketshare in the UK. At the end of 2023 it will become obvious this is complete bullshit. That's all I'm saying.
MS isnt gaining more market, while PS and switch are gaining more.
What makes you believe that?

Only back in April you had this info from Nadella himself when regulators weren't breathing down his neck about the acquisition

https://www.eurogamer.net/xbox-seri...bally-in-console-market-for-past-two-quarters

"With our Xbox Series X and S consoles, we have taken share globally for two quarters in a row and we are the market leader this quarter among the next-gen consoles in the United States, Canada, UK, and Western Europe," Nadella said.

But to the UK regulators they are suggesting they forcast market share loss ie they will start to lose marketshare.
MS is getting left behind here. They are still being affected by that xbox one fiasco.

It will take time for that to go away. And by the time MS gets their shit together, Switch and PS would be far a head of them.
If it goes to court, come the end of 2023 the bluff would be obvious. They are definitely not getting left behind here, they are gaining marketshare not losing it.
 
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MS doesn't OWN Activision.

Regulators are the ones who need to approve this deal, not MS.

This is why I trust lawyers, compared to people like you. You have no idea what is going on with this deal, aside of assumptions.
They will own activision in the end and no amount of wishful thinking can stop that. Also Sony doesn’t get to dictate nothing. Any deal made will be between regulators and Microsoft. Also FTC doesn’t have legs in this political environment atm.
 
It seems you are mixing up past, present and future tense in your arguments. MS has said to the regulators that it forcasts a loss in marketshare in the UK. At the end of 2023 it will become obvious this is complete bullshit. That's all I'm saying.

What makes you believe that?

Only back in April you had this info from Nadella himself when regulators weren't breathing down his neck about the acquisition

https://www.eurogamer.net/xbox-seri...bally-in-console-market-for-past-two-quarters

"With our Xbox Series X and S consoles, we have taken share globally for two quarters in a row and we are the market leader this quarter among the next-gen consoles in the United States, Canada, UK, and Western Europe," Nadella said.

But to the UK regulators they are suggesting they forcast market share loss ie they will start to lose marketshare.

If it goes to court, come the end of 2023 the bluff would be obvious. They are definitely not getting left behind here, they are gaining marketshare not losing it.
As oppose to the competition who’s saying their business will end because of the deal? This isn’t going to last into the end of the year April the latest.
 

Three

Member
As oppose to the competition who’s saying their business will end because of the deal? This isn’t going to last into the end of the year April the latest.
Just because you read the word foreclosure doesn't mean what you think it means. It's referring to input foreclosure which can be both total and partial. Companies like Sony rely mostly on third party sales for their subs and consoles. If another party is buying third party publisher after third party publisher it becomes an input foreclosure risk. Especially when it is for the biggest selling games. They are talking about sectors no longer being able to compete, not bankruptcy. Stadia is an example.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
There’s nothing inconsistent with saying you want to keep the franchise multiplatform indefinitely and being hesitant to commit to a lifetime legally binding commitment.

There’s no contract promising lifetime Minecraft on PlayStation and yet it remains multiplatform pretty much a decade after purchase. Include spin-offs.

If he is hesitant about committing to such a thing then he should stop making comments suggesting he is committed to such a thing. His words need to match his intentions. That's what I find inconsistent.
 
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