This is what people are ignoring.
Activision won't get 95$ per share from other people. They are not crazy to demand a high share. If they do that, MS will simply pull out and Activision will lose a lot of money in the process, due to them not being able to get this offer.
If Comcast is the one who will buy them, they will buy them for less than 95$ per share.
Depends on where ABK's stock price ends up after this deal falls through. If it drops back down to $65, I doubt they'd get the $95/45% premium. However, if it stays at 80 or drops to 75, any interested buyer would probably pay a 30% premium, which would be over $95/share.
Some things to keep in mind about a possible renegotiation:
If Activision lets this deal die to collect their $3B, Microsoft cannot even attempt to acquire ABK for 10 years. (Not many possible buyers for ABK, and one would be off the table for 10 years)
There is uncertainty around where ABK's stock is, if the deal officially dies how much does ABK's stock price drop? Does the $3B break up fee mitigate that potential drop?
I'm not sure how a renegotiation would work, what ABK's fiduciary duty is in that scenario, would ABK have to bring any offer made by Microsoft to the shareholders? If a new offer of $105/share was brought before shareholders, who wouldn't agree to that? It's roughly 10% higher than what those shareholders originally agreed to. Even if you believe the deal to be doomed, agreeing to a new higher deal price would likely up your share price in the meantime rather than the deal officially dying and possibly dropping your share price.
How much does being in "business limbo" cost ABK? How much would they realistically get from a renewed marketing deal with Sony? The marketing agreement ends at some point in 2024, the appeal process /deal could be done or dead by the time the marketing agreement is over. And if the process lasts into 2025, I'm sure Activision would take it into account what a 1 year of no marketing agreement would cost them and tie that into a new break up fee.
If ABK believes this acquisition doesn't have a shot, why wouldn't they ride out the process for another year or 2 for a guaranteed $6B (assumption). Is the $3B that enticing that the "delayed gratification" of a higher break up fee isn't even thought about?
There isn't much of a downside for ABK to renegotiate. I'm thinking if anything, Microsoft might be more weary of being in "business limbo" for the next year or 2.
Those are some of my recent thoughts on the possible renegotiation. Just a lot of uncertainty really.