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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Topher

Gold Member
FOREIGN regulators. Do yourself a favor and figure out why things might be different.

I understand quite well why things might be different with CMA compared to the FTC. I've also acknowledged for quite some time that a company as rich and powerful as Microsoft has ways of navigating regulatory waters. None of that has anything to do with Stadia or Amazon's gaming division.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
New shift members today 😛

Tom Hanks Hello GIF
 
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Sanepar

Member
No it won’t. A ruling in favor of no injunction has no bearing on the CMA case. If MS close the deal without CMA approval they are taking a massive gamble that could end extremely poorly, see: meta/giphy

The injunction also has no bearing on the FTC case, although it may cause the FTC to withdrawal its suit
You can't compare giphy and abk. Size and scope. If they close the deal. Cma will take until next year for a new decision until there a lot of structures changes would be made. To make impossible a simple divest.
 

Topher

Gold Member
You can't compare giphy and abk. Size and scope. If they close the deal. Cma will take until next year for a new decision until there a lot of structures changes would be made. To make impossible a simple divest.

CMA won't wait until next year if MS closes. They will sue immediately. That's why I don't see MS closing outside of winning the appeal and renegotiating with the CMA.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
So I was bored and reading the ABK contract and found this.

I now see why Microsoft is so worried about the FTC injunction.

pIaBIUE.jpg


Also, doesn't this pretty much annihilate the theory of Microsoft closing over the CMA?

P.S. I think this is the reason why the CMA restrained Microsoft from investing in ABK for 10 years. They needed to trigger this clause as well as eliminate the possibility of an extension.
 
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So I was bored and reading the ABK contract and found this.

I now see why Microsoft is so worried about the FTC injunction.

pIaBIUE.jpg


Also, doesn't this pretty much annihilate the theory of Microsoft closing over the CMA?

P.S. I think this is the reason why the CMA restrained Microsoft from investing in ABK for 10 years. They needed to trigger this clause as well as eliminate the possibility of an extension.

Seems to read that way. If the P.I was granted the deal would be completely dead. However if not they still have to deal with the CMA and the FTC if they still pursue a block.

Edit: This is assuming Microsoft wants to satisfy the conditions of the contract though. If they close illegally that's a different story.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
So I was bored and reading the ABK contract and found this.

I now see why Microsoft is so worried about the FTC injunction.

pIaBIUE.jpg


Also, doesn't this pretty much annihilate the theory of Microsoft closing over the CMA?

P.S. I think this is the reason why the CMA restrained Microsoft from investing in ABK for 10 years. They needed to trigger this clause as well as eliminate the possibility of an extension.

Well There It Is Jurassic Park GIF


Yep. MS cannot close with CMA's prohibition order in place.

Damn son......you are living up to that tag, aren't you?
 
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Sanepar

Member
There is only 2 things that worries me about this and future MS aquisitions:

- enforce cloud model
- enforce renting model(gamepass)
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Seems to read that way. If the P.I was granted the deal would be completely dead. However if not they still have to deal with the CMA and the FTC if they still pursue a block.

Edit: This is assuming Microsoft wants to satisfy the conditions of the contract though. If they close illegally that's a different story.
But will they be able to close illegally? I don't think so.

Not just because of repercussions and penalties but because any such [illegal] action that is explicitly prohibited by this contract (like the above example) will make that act itself and, by extension, the closing of the acquisition illegal.

I believe that could be challenged in any court, and the judgment could be as if Microsoft never (legally) closed the acquisition because they breached the very contract.

Even Activision wouldn't agree to that. I believed they would be the first one to challenge that.
 
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But will they be able to close illegally? I don't think so.

Not just because of repercussions and penalties but because any such [illegal] action that is explicitly prohibited by this contract (like the above example) will make that act itself and, by extension, the closing of the acquisition illegal.

I believe that could be challenged in any court, and the judgment could be as if Microsoft never (legally) closed the acquisition because they breached the very contract.

Even Activision wouldn't agree to that. I believed they would be the first one to challenge that.

Well it's the only way I can see them closing it next week. It would have to be an illegal merger for that to happen.

If they chose to meet the conditions of the contract then an extension with a win against the CMA is how they will do it.
 

Kilau

Gold Member
So I was bored and reading the ABK contract and found this.

I now see why Microsoft is so worried about the FTC injunction.

pIaBIUE.jpg


Also, doesn't this pretty much annihilate the theory of Microsoft closing over the CMA?

P.S. I think this is the reason why the CMA restrained Microsoft from investing in ABK for 10 years. They needed to trigger this clause as well as eliminate the possibility of an extension.
Did the CMA make its block official? If so I guess that’s why they have to appeal or go nuclear and leave the UK jurisdiction.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Well it's the only way I can see them closing it next week. It would have to be an illegal merger for that to happen.
"Illegal merger" is the perfect way to put it. All of us were so focused at Microsoft potentially closing over CMA, we never actually thought about it -- that it would be an "illegal merger" and how can they just persist with it in the long-term.

It's not like people and courts would just forget that they merged illegally and go "ehh, what's done is done."

It's not going to hold at all, so I don't think that is even an option really.
If they chose to meet the conditions of the contract then an extension with a win against the CMA is how they will do it.
Agreed.
 
"Illegal merger" is the perfect way to put it. All of us were so focused at Microsoft potentially closing over CMA, we never actually thought about it -- that it would be an "illegal merger" and how can they just persist with it in the long-term.

It's not like people and courts would just forget that they merged illegally and go "ehh, what's done is done."

It's not going to hold at all, so I don't think that is even an option really.

Agreed.

Assuming they go the illegal merger route that would have several consequences for them. Obviously the CMA would sue them for it and it would make the appeal process much more difficult for them. Then there's the fact that they chose to ignore a regulator that's part of the contact. Thet should send a message to other regulators that their opinions mean nothing to Microsoft. It could cause them some problems with future mergers which i doubt Microsoft wants.
 

Ar¢tos

Member
It’s a shame MS won’t just tell us their strategy for closing this.
They obviously don't have one because they aren't going to do any illegal merger, it would be the death of the company. They aren't a China based business that gets to ignore every international law they don't like.

All this noise of closing over the CMA is just the erotic daydreams of circle jerking shills and delusional fanboys.
 

Bernardougf

Gold Member
You are being overtly harsh, the next generation of Xbox games are on the Horizon starting with Starfield. But yea when it comes to making games they are clueless.
Nah.. just been realistic.. first get your shit together than after you can begin acquiring new shit... thank god for bethesda or they wouldn't have nothing ... but dont want them opening big daddys wallet every time they have to hide their fuck ups...or this industry is gonna go to shit
 
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SixPin

Neo Member
So I was bored and reading the ABK contract and found this.

I now see why Microsoft is so worried about the FTC injunction.

pIaBIUE.jpg


Also, doesn't this pretty much annihilate the theory of Microsoft closing over the CMA?

P.S. I think this is the reason why the CMA restrained Microsoft from investing in ABK for 10 years. They needed to trigger this clause as well as eliminate the possibility of an extension.
So the CMA's final order would basically kill the merger no? When is that one coming?
 

Varteras

Gold Member
But will they be able to close illegally? I don't think so.

Not just because of repercussions and penalties but because any such [illegal] action that is explicitly prohibited by this contract (like the above example) will make that act itself and, by extension, the closing of the acquisition illegal.

I believe that could be challenged in any court, and the judgment could be as if Microsoft never (legally) closed the acquisition because they breached the very contract.

Even Activision wouldn't agree to that. I believed they would be the first one to challenge that.

One would think that the very real possibility of MS being forced to divest ABK and likely lose tens of billions in the process, to walk away with nothing, would alone be enough to stay their hand. That's certainly NOT a strategy I'd want to be the one to explain to my bosses.
 

Topher

Gold Member
So I was bored and reading the ABK contract and found this.

I now see why Microsoft is so worried about the FTC injunction.

pIaBIUE.jpg


Also, doesn't this pretty much annihilate the theory of Microsoft closing over the CMA?

P.S. I think this is the reason why the CMA restrained Microsoft from investing in ABK for 10 years. They needed to trigger this clause as well as eliminate the possibility of an extension.

N NickFire Ogbert Ogbert

Do you guys have a take on this clause? How are these conditions enforced? If Microsoft and ABK agreed, could they simply ignore these conditions?
 

skit_data

Member
I don't know much around the specifics of how such an event would work out economically but the idea of Microsoft and ABK pulling their business from UK due to CMAs block always came across as completely insane to me. It would probably lead to enormous economic and legislative ramifications for the company. Every normal functioning country buying/licensing/using their services would become very wary of relying on them or simply switch to a competing product/service.
 

Sanepar

Member
So I was bored and reading the ABK contract and found this.

I now see why Microsoft is so worried about the FTC injunction.

pIaBIUE.jpg


Also, doesn't this pretty much annihilate the theory of Microsoft closing over the CMA?

P.S. I think this is the reason why the CMA restrained Microsoft from investing in ABK for 10 years. They needed to trigger this clause as well as eliminate the possibility of an extension.
It literally says they can waive. So they can ignore CMA and close the deal.
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Which brings the question why they haven't waived the CMA yet after all this time.

CMA: Your Blocked

Microsoft: We will just waive you.

That didn't happen yet.
That isn't a contract with the CMA. The clauses are to protect MS. Otherwise the EU, UK and US could all rule against the deal and MS would still have to close and buy a worse than worthless company. They can waive the CMA clause for the sale, it doesn't have any effect on the CMA block and the reprocussions of it.
 

DeepEnigma

Gold Member
I don't know much around the specifics of how such an event would work out economically but the idea of Microsoft and ABK pulling their business from UK due to CMAs block always came across as completely insane to me. It would probably lead to enormous economic and legislative ramifications for the company. Every normal functioning country buying/licensing/using their services would become very wary of relying on them or simply switch to a competing product/service.
It would also create national security issues and would open up a patent loss vacuum.

It was always retard speak.
 
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Topher

Gold Member
That isn't a contract with the CMA. The clauses are to protect MS. Otherwise the EU, UK and US could all rule against the deal and MS would still have to close and buy a worse than worthless company. They can waive the CMA clause for the sale, it doesn't have any effect on the CMA block and the reprocussions of it.

If that were true then there are no "conditions" at all. That doesn't make a bit of sense. The word used is not "waive". It is "waiver". To waive is the act. A waiver is something obtained.
 
That isn't a contract with the CMA. The clauses are to protect MS. Otherwise the EU, UK and US could all rule against the deal and MS would still have to close and buy a worse than worthless company. They can waive the CMA clause for the sale, it doesn't have any effect on the CMA block and the reprocussions of it.

If Microsoft really wants to protect themselves they need to win the appeal process. Anything else and the repercussions will be big from the UK.

They probably have some good reasons for not eliminating the UK since day one of the block.
 
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Varteras

Gold Member
If Microsoft really wants to protect themselves they need to win the appeal process. Anything else and the repercussions will be big from the UK.

They probably have some good reasons for not eliminating the UK since day one of the block.

The fact that we're 2.5 months out from the CMA's verdict and not only have MS and ABK not simply closed the deal anyways, but also not extended the deadline, should really be striking people a lot more than it seems to. We're barely more than a week away from the deadline. Why are they cutting it so close if it's a simple matter?
 

Topher

Gold Member
The fact that we're 2.5 months out from the CMA's verdict and not only have MS and ABK not simply closed the deal anyways, but also not extended the deadline, should really be striking people a lot more than it seems to. We're barely more than a week away from the deadline. Why are they cutting it so close if it's a simple matter?

And why waste time and money with an appeal over a ruling they plan to ignore? None of this makes any sense. Sounds like a lot of Florian Mueller nonsense to me.

You still lurking SoloKingRobert SoloKingRobert ?
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
If that were true then there are no "conditions" at all. That doesn't make a bit of sense. The word used is not "waive". It is "waiver". To waive is the act. A waiver is something obtained.
We have had an example in this thread where a company didn't get any of the regulators approval. Didn't work out well for them, but it is perfectly possible to do.
 
The fact that we're 2.5 months out from the CMA's verdict and not only have MS and ABK not simply closed the deal anyways, but also not extended the deadline, should really be striking people a lot more than it seems to. We're barely more than a week away from the deadline. Why are they cutting it so close if it's a simple matter?

Maybe they want to rush everything at the last minute and not give anyone time to think about things.
 

skit_data

Member
It would also create national security issues and would open up a patent loss vacuum.

It was always retard speak.
Yeah, that's what struck me when Brad Smith alluded to their involvement in cyber security while commenting on CMA blocking the deal. I don't know why he even brought that up because if anything that comment alone should be reason for governments to go
"eeh, guys we need to look over how entangled MS is in our countrys defense and security".
I don't know, maybe it's common for large businesses to make those types of comments in cases similar to these but to me it pretty much solidified the necessity of governmental involvement in these types of deals and heavy scrutiny of MS in particular.

Amazing how far we've come towards having Weyland-Yutani like corporations more or less ruling the world. It's a sci fi dystopy, not something to aim towards just because you like the idea of CoD on Gamepass day 1.
 

Topher

Gold Member
We have had an example in this thread where a company didn't get any of the regulators approval. Didn't work out well for them, but it is perfectly possible to do.

Assume you are talking about Facebook/Giphy. Did that merger agreement require CMA approval? Giphy didn't even operate in the UK so the assumption might have been that they did not require it and then CMA investigated after the fact. Don't think that example works in answering the question I posed.
 

Kilau

Gold Member
They obviously don't have one because they aren't going to do any illegal merger, it would be the death of the company. They aren't a China based business that gets to ignore every international law they don't like.

All this noise of closing over the CMA is just the erotic daydreams of circle jerking shills and delusional fanboys.
MS is the one that proposed they would leave the UK over this; many stories were written after the threats made and MS has let them stand with no correction.
 

Topher

Gold Member
MS is the one that proposed they would leave the UK over this; many stories were written after the threats made and MS has let them stand with no correction.

No, MS never proposed doing that. There were rumors that they were trying to find ways of getting around the CMA, but nothing ever official.
 
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