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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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GHG

Gold Member
I'm arguing what the CMA said. Their reasoning was that by MS buying ABK it would lead to higher game prices and higher subscription prices.
The fact that Sony increased prices without any of that factored in shows its horseshit.
If you want to get triggered over that, that's on you. It's a fact however.

  1. Subscription prices != game prices
  2. Learn to read - https://www.theringer.com/2020/10/2...ces-70-dollars-call-of-duty-ps5-xbox-series-x
  3. After reading (provided you understand what you've read, which at this point I highly doubt) you will then discover what is factual and what isn't.
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member
Are you saying Sony hasn't been lobbying all the regulators to stop this deal? Are you legit?
What’s wrong with that? They would be lobbied against by MS and under the same scrutiny in reverse and your opinion would be flipped.

Meanwhile, there will be those of us against the deal in the same stance as we are now.
 

laynelane

Member
Are you saying Sony hasn't been lobbying all the regulators to stop this deal? Are you legit?

bJp7ivt.gif
 
Yeah I dont see how Sony actually going out their to prove their case is a bad thing. The dude in the tweet comes off as a real fanboy of Microsoft.

That's because he kinda is. He was a part of Microsoft's team (legal side IIRC) for over 20 years. Mentioned somewhere on his blog. So, it's pretty easy to see which side he's on in this case.

He also saw no issues with Microsoft requesting 11 years worth of planned marketing contracts and content contracts Sony has lined up with 3P partners. Keep in mind, Sony probably doesn't even have contracts extending that far with most of whatever games they DO have marketing deals/cofunding/codevelopment deals on. Also Microsoft is very leaky; wouldn't take a lot for certain personalities to get that info and start spinning it in endless rumors & leaks so as to take the wind out Sony's sails (being able to reveal that info on their own terms) and possibly causing enough fallout to jeopardize working relationships between Sony & 3P devs/pubs (it'd be seen as a sign of weakness that Sony can't control their own information).

That could even have actual effects on the stock market. So that type of request in a subpoena is a no-no.

Wishful thinking. A proper reading of the report says the deal is 100% getting approved.

Please not like this 😂. Look, there's still a good chance the deal is approved, but it's not 100%. It depends on how good Microsoft's concessions are on the behavioral remedy front. If that fails, then there will be structural remedies. If Microsoft doesn't like those, they'll probably bail on the deal.

Meaning they'd walk before the deal is approved. Again, I don't think that's necessarily going to end up happening: personally I think they'll settle on structural remedies involving some divestiture of assets that Microsoft can still retain partial ownership of, but those entities otherwise being able to function independently. But that's not 100% guaranteed, neither is any outcome at this point, really.

Neither is against the deal to the extent Sony is. And that's the difference.

Well, their markets aren't nearly as affected by the deal as Sony's could be, so that's understandable.
 
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I love how they name-dropped the usual suspects. Because they are definitely part of that clique 😂

Well, maybe aside Idas. They probably lean a certain way preference-wise with this but I haven't seen them have completely fanatical takes like the others and more who aren't named.

Also I guess if that Foss guy worked at Blizzard, too, then he is especially invested in seeing this go through. If for nothing else than for nostalgia. He's letting it get in the way of rationale takes though.
 
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I'm pretty sure that Amazon would bite the seller's hand off to get COD and its stable of studios. They sell a ton of it on their physical storefronts so would probably be able to know exactly how much revenue it can bring.
I'm trying to imagine Amazon executives shouting "What do you mean we can't duplicate it and undercut the seller? Look, this thing sells like hotcakes! Did you hear me... hotcakes! I don't care what it takes, go learn to code and get to it. If we're to get a bonus this quarter, it's gotta be up and listed by next Thursday. So I'm not saying you gotta work the weekend or anything, but we need to get on it."
 
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JLB

Banned
What’s wrong with that? They would be lobbied against by MS and under the same scrutiny in reverse and your opinion would be flipped.

Meanwhile, there will be those of us against the deal in the same stance as we are now.

Where I live lobbying is literally a crime and strictly prohibited. And probably for good reasons.
 
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Lulu offering up some common sense finally...

  • She acknowledged some internal worry about the thread, specifically over whether it would anger Sony, which opposes the deal but also works with Activision to bring Call of Duty and other top company franchises to PlayStation.
  • “We're a partner to them,” she says. “Were they worried about pissing us off when they tried to kill a really good deal that our employees wanted and that players wanted? Were they worried about pissing us off when they made all these claims that seem to be pretty disingenuous? And we didn't take it personally. … They're making the case for what's best for their business.”

She sounds really, really angry about all of this 😄
 

RickMasters

Member
The only "players" wanting this deal to go through are fanboys like Colteastwood and Jez Corden, to use this deal as ammo for console war.
Id imagine ABK also want this to go through...and the workers who signed up to those unions, that MS supported. ....oh.... and regular gamers who just so happen to own an xbox and dont happen to engage in 'console wars' on gamer forums and the tit for tat...... They do exist you know..... And Im pretty sure many of them have GP and im pretty sure they would have wanted the aquisition to go through, too. Not everything is 'console war' related..
 
The only "players" wanting this deal to go through are fanboys like Colteastwood and Jez Corden, to use this deal as ammo for console war.

More or less. I don't personally care one way or the other, but I absolutely see the problems it could cause if it's approved without some serious concessions.

Guys like Colt & Jez just want the deal to go through with no big concessions so they can use stuff like COD against PlayStation in console warring. I don't think they understand that how regulators handle this deal will have long-term ramifications on ALL other M&As they handle in the tech market going forward.

No one told Microsoft to rush into buying another big publisher only eight months after they got Zenimax approved. The way they've been acting borderline petulant and pointing fingers at others for succeeding in gaming through smart decisions over decades isn't helping, either.

Id imagine ABK also want this to go through...and the workers who signed up to those unions, that MS supported. ....oh.... and regular gamers who just so happen to own an xbox and dont happen to engage in 'console wars' on gamer forums and the tit for tat...... They do exist you know..... And Im pretty sure many of them have GP and im pretty sure they would have wanted the aquisition to go through, too. Not everything is 'console war' related..

How are those "regular gamers" making any sense when they still get every single one of the ABK games anyway even if the deal fails? Are they afraid of paying for something they want? Do they go to Starbucks for free? Go to the movies without paying? Take trips with other people's money?

Why is gaming the hobby they don't want to pay for despite supposedly loving it? Because that's what it's really about for most of them: Game Pass. And getting ABK games for "free" in the service (so they think).

Considering she's a union buster, it's funny to see her talk about what employees want.

IKR 😂. Doing a 180 in the blink of an eye.
 
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DR3AM

Dreams of a world where inflated review scores save studios
For someone who doesn't follow this closely. Is the deal over or is MS still in a good position? What's the next step?
 

Edmund

Member
More or less. I don't personally care one way or the other, but I absolutely see the problems it could cause if it's approved without some serious concessions.

Guys like Colt & Jez just want the deal to go through with no big concessions so they can use stuff like COD against PlayStation in console warring. I don't think they understand that how regulators handle this deal will have long-term ramifications on ALL other M&As they handle in the tech market going forward.

No one told Microsoft to rush into buying another big publisher only eight months after they got Zenimax approved. The way they've been acting borderline petulant and pointing fingers at others for succeeding in gaming through smart decisions over decades isn't helping, either.

And the way they said they would continue with acquisitions after getting ATVI shows how arrogant they are.
 

ChiefDada

Gold Member

This is sad. The irony here is that much of what this person is proposing is feasible for Sony based on lead position in console sales and emphasis on high production 1st party output. Not the case for Microsoft at all. Did they ever stop to think why they haven't done any of this up to this point?
 

RickMasters

Member
How are those "regular gamers" making any sense when they still get every single one of the ABK games anyway even if the deal fails? Are they afraid of paying for something they want? Do they go to Starbucks for free? Go to the movies without paying? Take trips with other people's money?

Why is gaming the hobby they don't want to pay for despite supposedly loving it? Because that's what it's really about for most of them: Game Pass. And getting ABK games for "free" in the service (so they think).
Thats a poor argument. I dont know how you equate to paying monthly for a sub for years on end .... on top of a console+ accesories and proably a new TV and monthly internet..... is equal to begging a free starbucks.... and waaaay too much assertive assumption in your post... for a start you cant say or proclaim to know who plays what or what their financial status is. You dont know peoples responsibilities or the order they place those priorities in. They are no less a gemer than you just because they want to sub it instead. There are more important things to spend money on than $70 games every month, but maybe thats where adults priorities differ..... there are people who pay into subs because its cost effective gaming. ...hows it free if they still pay a monthly sub in addition to monthly internet and the cost of a console and TV...in addition to mortgage/rent, car, utilities, kids who want games too! Its simply another cost but its the least important thing. gamepass, like netflix and itunes is simply where things are going...subscription based. It saves money for the average household while giving access to a lot... and it makes sense to most bill paying people. because they are already doing it with every other form of entertainment they consume. gaming might be the only time they pay 70 bucks for a piece of entertainment. and maybe thats not sustainable to everybody when they have more important things to spend money but still wish to be entertained...


"Why is gaming the hobby they don't want to pay for despite supposedly loving it? "


subscribing does not make you less of a gamer. you still pay for something if thats what makes a 'real gamer', to you. people have spotify and HBO max accounts... They are no less music or movie fans if they dont go to concert or the cinemas every weekend. And im a vinyl junky, saying that!
 
Thats a poor argument. I dont know how you equate to paying monthly for a sub for years on end .... on top of a console+ accesories and proably a new TV and monthly internet..... is equal to begging a free starbucks.... and waaaay too much assertive assumption in your post... for a start you cant say or proclaim to know who plays what or what their financial status is. You dont know peoples responsibilities or the order they place those priorities in. They are no less a gemer than you just because they want to sub it instead. There are more important things to spend money on than $70 games every month, but maybe thats where adults priorities differ..... there are people who pay into subs because its cost effective gaming. ...hows it free if they still pay a monthly sub in addition to monthly internet and the cost of a console and TV...in addition to mortgage/rent, car, utilities, kids who want games too! Its simply another cost but its the least important thing. gamepass, like netflix and itunes is simply where things are going...subscription based. It saves money for the average household while giving access to a lot... and it makes sense to most bill paying people. because they are already doing it with every other form of entertainment they consume. gaming might be the only time they pay 70 bucks for a piece of entertainment. and maybe thats not sustainable to everybody when they have more important things to spend money but still wish to be entertained...

Look, here's the thing. There are even things I currently want gaming-wise but can't justify for one reason or another, whether because I have to budget money, or see if I'd even have the time to get enough use out of it. PSVR2 is one them. But what I'm not doing, is calling companies anti-consumer just because myself specifically may not be able to get something. If that's the case, then I just have to wait until I can get it, simple as that.

Some of the people who want this deal to pass just to get things for "free" in Game Pass, genuinely feel they are entitled to those games, even if they don't want to pay for them Day 1 or even wait a bit until they drop down in price for a sale. No one is entitled to entertainment, but I think the current environment surrounding subscription services, or better I should say the current narrative, has deluded some people into believing it. And I can say with certainty that there is at least some portion of people in favor of the acquisition specifically because it means they get all that content in Game Pass Day 1, let's not pretend otherwise.

No problem if they would like that as a perk; it's the select ones among them who demonize paying for games, or demonize other companies for not putting all their games Day 1 into a subscription service, as being anti-consumer, or worst yet trying to make a case for subscription gaming to empower "marginalized people" to have more access to games (as if all minorities are poor or haven't been able to buy games before...and yes this was actually a talking point with some pro-Game Pass people on Twitter last year, especially with some Ambassadors), when it's really about themselves, who poison the well.

Also no the industry is not going the Game Pass route. You do know that subscription services in gaming are like 5% of all gaming revenue, right? Game Pass has been here since 2017; PS Now before that. It might be the big talk but it's not pulling in that much money compared to direct sales in gaming; even Microsoft have said this (and they've probably used it in talks with regulators to try downplaying worries around subscription services in gaming).

"Why is gaming the hobby they don't want to pay for despite supposedly loving it? "


subscribing does not make you less of a gamer. you still pay for something if thats what makes a 'real gamer', to you. people have spotify and HBO max accounts... They are no less music or movie fans if they dont go to concert or the cinemas every weekend. And im a vinyl junky, saying that!

I didn't say paying for a subscription makes you less of a gamer; that's conflation. What I said is, some of these people who want this deal to pass, seemingly care about these games so much yet don't seem willing to pay for them. And personally, I think that's kind of funny. I want a Ferrari, doesn't mean I can't expect to get one for cheap if I REALLY want one. I'm also not out here hoping they get acquired by someone who can promise to give me Ferraris for free/super cheap, because that would just be dumb. I know that business model can't really work, just like how we're getting proof from the court documents that Game Pass as it currently is, doesn't really work as a business model.

And ultimately who's going to pay the price for that? Microsoft, because they lose money on it. The industry, because even if Microsoft get ABK, if they still want to push Game Pass aggressively with that content they either bleed more money or scale back funding or even fire employees to save costs. And us, the customers, because companies like Microsoft aren't going to spend $70 billion on a huge acquisition and not make up the costs down the line; that's what services price increases are for.

They'd probably look to cut down or eliminate the loopholes, too. Then we can see how much the diehards who champion Game Pass (the ones saying the most extremely stupid and aggressive things and literally praying the deal gets approved) actually value the service.
 
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bitbydeath

Gold Member
For someone who doesn't follow this closely. Is the deal over or is MS still in a good position? What's the next step?
The CMA has a final report coming April 26 (more on that later).

MS currently has three choices:
1. Accept the offer, and choose one of three concessions provided by the CMA, each involve selling Activision's studios and COD to varying degrees;
2. Cancel the deal, pay Activision the penalty fees;
3. Seek an appeal via the courts

The gotcha, if MS wait out the CMA’s final report or seek appeal via the courts, April will come and the penalty fee (mentioned above) for the deal falling through increases from 2 billion to 3 billion, MS need to think fast.
 
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ByWatterson

Member
I bought a Series X after the purchase announcement, as it showed how serious Microsoft was about gaming. Absolutely no regrets, I've been SO impressed with the ecosystem, the backcompat, the library, indie support in Gamepass, etc.

And I want this deal to fail. The year since its announcement has shown that the Sony approach of building studios, cultivating talent, and investing in quality is the right approach. Microsoft's plan to buy their way to global parity hasn't worked, and there's no sign yet that it will.

Frankly, Phil and Microsoft need to be humbled. They have done SO much right in building an ecosystem. Now they have to do the rest. Their current strategy feels like DCEU dropping Justice League WAY too early in an effort to catch the patient Marvel.

If they want to truly compete with Sony, a company a tiny fraction of their market cap, they need to earn it. Games, not Office 365 money, should be the pathway to success.
 
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ZehDon

Member
Is this true?

If it is I think the Sony/Activision relationship will break soon

If the deal doesn't go through, I'd imagine Sony wouldn't be viewed favourably by Activision Blizzard's current leadership. Sony deliberately cost each of them personal millions. Business is business, but I imagine Microsoft would become their preferred business partner.
 

James Sawyer Ford

Gold Member
If the deal doesn't go through, I'd imagine Sony wouldn't be viewed favourably by Activision Blizzard's current leadership. Sony deliberately cost each of them personal millions. Business is business, but I imagine Microsoft would become their preferred business partner.

Money talks.

If the deal falls through, they will accept whatever partner provides the most $$$

Right now that is Microsoft. If the deal fails, who knows.

I think Kotick is gone if the deal falls apart
 

laynelane

Member
Is this true?

If it is I think the Sony/Activision relationship will break soon


I've actually enjoyed Sony's steadfast refusal to get into a Twitter PR war on this matter. As for your question, while this acquisition matter is ongoing, there is no reason for Sony to communicate directly with either other party. They've been crystal clear what their stance on this is right from the beginning, after all. Also, PR statements don't cancel out existing contracts or the desire to make money for any of the businesses involved.
 

ByWatterson

Member
I've actually enjoyed Sony's steadfast refusal to get into a Twitter PR war on this matter. As for your question, while this acquisition matter is ongoing, there is no reason for Sony to communicate directly with either other party. They've been crystal clear what their stance on this is right from the beginning, after all. Also, PR statements don't cancel out existing contracts or the desire to make money for any of the businesses involved.

Not to mention when you're functionally suing and being sued, you don't just get all chatty with your opponents.

You talk through lawyers.
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
You sure the judge has signed it?
YhJmqIs.jpg


Assuming we are looking at
https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/ft...on-to-quash-or-limit-subpoena-duces-tecum.pdf

He may do in the end but as I read it, that is what Sony are proposing.
Oops, you are right! Apologies, everyone for jumping the gun. In my defense, it was 2 AM 😄 and I went immediately to sleep after posting this.

I didn't see the following page and got confused by the language that said, "the motion is GRANTED and hereby ORDERED that:"

And I believe SenjutsuSage SenjutsuSage got confused by the same thing in the other doc. So neither was right, and we were both wrong at the same time, and the judge has yet to make the decision.
 

reksveks

Member
For real, where are both of you getting these? These are not on the FTC website for this Activision case, and these are wildly different documents. Were these leaked somewhere? How is anyone supposed to know what they believe with two different documents potentially in play?

EDIT: I just realized that Heisenberg007 Heisenberg007 's screenshot is from Sony's submission. I have no idea where SenjutsuSage SenjutsuSage 's screenshot is coming from.
iNizO0b.jpg

Think both are misunderstanding the fact that the companies have proposed this for the judge to sign and isn't from the judge or signed yet.

Heisenberg007 Heisenberg007 just seen your reply now but no worries.
 
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If the deal doesn't go through, I'd imagine Sony wouldn't be viewed favourably by Activision Blizzard's current leadership. Sony deliberately cost each of them personal millions. Business is business, but I imagine Microsoft would become their preferred business partner.

That is a possibility, won't deny it.

Money talks.

But this is also likely. Knowing ABK, it's probably what they care about most anyway.
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
The CMA has a final report coming April 26 (more on that later).

MS currently has three choices:
1. Accept the offer, and choose one of three concessions provided by the CMA, each involve selling Activision's studios and COD to varying degrees;
2. Cancel the deal, pay Activision the penalty fees;
3. Seek an appeal via the courts

The gotcha, if MS wait out the CMA’s final report or seek appeal via the courts, April will come and the penalty fee (mentioned above) for the deal falling through increases from 2 billion to 3 billion, MS need to think fast.
As unlikely as it is, you forgot that the CMA has left the door open to be convinced to accept behavioral remedies. This is what most in favour of the deal are banking on (I'm of the opinion it won't happen, and the deal is dead, but it's still a possibility)
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
That is a possibility, won't deny it.

But this is also likely. Knowing ABK, it's probably what they care about most anyway.
While that is a possibility (of course), it's extremely unlikely that COD will choose Xbox as its partner if we (and ABK) think about it rationally (instead of emotionally):
  • COD is the leading FPS in the market. They want to be associated with the leading console platform, which is PlayStation.
  • An Xbox marketing agreement may also open the possibility of a Game Pass inclusion on day one. Activision has stated that they do not want to do subscriptions on day one currently, so there is already a misalignment in the broader vision between Activision and Xbox.
  • Xbox gamers do not buy games as much as PlayStation gamers do. So there is a possibility that the net sales decrease would be the result for Activision if they choose Xbox as their marketing partner.
  • Xbox also does not market games as effectively and as extensively as PlayStation does. PlayStation's game marketing is just top-notch as we have seen consistently for years.
  • More importantly, if Activision goes with Xbox, PlayStation would go with Battlefield. As of now, Battlefield is pretty much dead and poses no serious competition to Call of Duty. With this flip, Battlefield may get another chance at revival and may very well become a serious competition once again with the help of PlayStation. ABK will not risk that.
 

We have officially entered Bizarro World.

Just full mask-off now, huh? 🤣

As unlikely as it is, you forgot that the CMA has left the door open to be convinced to accept behavioral remedies. This is what most in favour of the deal are banking on (I'm of the opinion it won't happen, and the deal is dead, but it's still a possibility)

They're not going to get their wish. At least, not with the ones already publicly known. A 10-year deal and being able to throw the games into PS+ means virtually nothing. The former could mean any number of features not being present between platforms for any number of reasons, and the latter is pretty much a slap in the face to Sony's primary business model with PlayStation, which relies on revenue from direct sales.

Especially in the case of the latter, if Microsoft decide to then push Game Pass by putting new CODs in there Day 1. Forcing a competitor to bleed potential revenue by putting games into a service Day 1 just to compete, when that can undercut a gaming division that matters way more to their bottom line than Xbox does to Microsoft, kind of seems like a form of predatory pricing.
 
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