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Microsoft FY19 Q4: Xbox Live MAU up 14% YoY.

Mista

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Hardware decline by 48% isn't good at all. Gaming revenue down by 10%

Maybe this coming holiday season they'll do great bundles
 

Lone Wolf

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Hardware decline by 48% isn't good at all. Gaming revenue down by 10%

Maybe this coming holiday season they'll do great bundles
Yes its time for $200 and less bundles. The SAD should go to $99 for the holiday season.
 

zeorhymer

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I wonder which 3rd party title dragged them down for the Q4. I'm also curious how they are going to categorize Game Pass or if they're going to lump it with XBL.
 

Mattyp

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Are we thinking the massive bump in MAU is from Gamepass promo recently? There did seem to be a huge influx of people finally jumping on board.

First fiscal of over 11 billion in revenue now for xbox even with EoL hardware sales. No way they pull a higher revenue next year, otherwise gamepass and gold must be doing massive for them. We'll see a decline next until Scarlett now, I expect the same from Sony and understandably from both.

64% azure again is fucking insane, they've beaten analyst predictions every quarter for years on end now. They'll over take Amazon at some point, will be interesting to see who wins the $10bilion Jedi contract.
 
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JoeyWestSide

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Are we thinking the massive bump in MAU is from Gamepass promo recently? There did seem to be a huge influx of people finally jumping on board.

First fiscal of over 11 billion in revenue now for xbox even with EoL hardware sales. No way they pull a higher revenue next year, otherwise gamepass and gold must be doing massive for them. We'll see a decline next until Scarlett now, I expect the same from Sony and understandably from both.

64% azure again is fucking insane, they've beaten analyst predictions every quarter for years on end now. They'll over take Amazon at this rate quicker then expected.
Interesting perspective but I don't think there will be much of a decline if any because as hardware starts to peak software will gain and that's where the margin is especially if they keep doing seasonal promos for GPU.

I think next year will be a new revenue record for Xbox because if they can retain and grow the MAUs that they have now then the customer transition into buying the next gen console where you already have 100s of games ready for you may be the smoothest one yet especially if cross play/save picks up speed. Also, there will be huge games next spring/summer that tons of people will be buying, like cyber punk, that will count towards their revenue. With gaas the profitability of games is creating an incredibly long tail! People like my 12 YO nephew is still playing the 360 and Just Dance is finally stopping releases on the Wii after this year. If people can buy Pros and X's for 300 next summer revenues can hit that 11B again.
64% is rediculous! Heard they just signed AT&T!
 
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Dane

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The number of users are higher than the installed base of the Xbox One (around 40-45 million), makes me wonder if is the PC users, lots of 360s still connected and people with two or more accounts.

But its impressive how the company with the Nadella leadership has managed to have a breakthrough portfolio, Linkedin could be close to pay off in the next year.
 
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I love MAUs, they always show up in my reports to cheer me up!
Because this console generation is ending and anyone who wanted by a Xbox One has already bought it, and the rest are waiting for Scarlet.
Still, if things were aligned well they would be relessing games that gives more people a reason to get their hardware, I mean the ps4 is still selling at a very good pace and trading blows with the switch, add that there are already over twice as many people who have bought PS4 s the large majority don't have an Xbox, why aren't hese gamers tempted to try the other console?

Also, did you look at the used market? Used xbox ones sell for about 75$ less than PS4 s are, that leads me to believe that many more people who have xboxes want to sell them, and few want to buy them unless they are very cheap, not good not good.

MS are not placing their pieces to make a good transition to the next generation, they seem to put an emphasis on having a lot of games, over having really great ones that make their platform stand out (like Nintendo and Sony are doing). Sure their new studios may deliver just that, but so far they have proven unable to manage their own studios in a way that is condusive to that. They seem to worry more about revenue streams (gaas, subscription services, dlc, etc.) Than actual great games, so I'm not that hopeful for next gen.
 
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Oso Torpedoes

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The SAD should have been smaller and cheaper... That ad for the SAD made them look lame and goofy... Drastic measures need to be made for the upcoming holidays if they want to catch some spark.. Or its downhill till nextgen.
 

Pallas

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The SAD should have been smaller and cheaper... That ad for the SAD made them look lame and goofy... Drastic measures need to be made for the upcoming holidays if they want to catch some spark.. Or its downhill till nextgen.
I can agree with this, they really mishandled the pricing on the SAD edition. They could of sold them like hot cakes(potentially) if they priced it better.
 
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Kagey K

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There is a lot to unpack here, but I’ll do my best to give my opinion as to why this isn’t so bad,

I love MAUs, they always show up in my reports to cheer me up!
If MS is serious about games being available to anyone on any device MAU is certainly the only way to measure the success. If 65 million people log in and play in March and only 60 log in and play in April they need to discover why, and address it.

Console sales don’t equal players. People buy multiple consoles per gen it’s how active each of those players are that should matter.

Still, if things were aligned well they would be relessing games that gives more people a reason to get their hardware, I mean the ps4 is still selling at a very good pace and trading blows with the switch, add that there are already over twice as many people who have bought PS4 s the large majority don't have an Xbox, why aren't hese gamers tempted to try the other console?
I’ve owned every console every gen, except for this one. I skipped the PS4 for 2 reasons this time. The PSN hack, as I bought my PS3 when GOW3 came out and bought SOCOM day 1 only to not be able to play it, and the essentially mandatory PS+ subscription. I wouldn’t play enough to justify it, but would get annoyed when I wanted to play with someone, but didn’t have it. I imagine that works the other way as well.

Sony is also going to report a large decline in console sales (probably in the 25 - 30 percent range) because these consoles have hit the saturation point. It’s not doom and gloom it’s part of the cycle.

MS are not placing their pieces to make a good transition to the next generation, they seem to put an emphasis on having a lot of games, over having really great ones that make their platform stand out (like Nintendo and Sony are doing). Sure their new studios may deliver just that, but so far they have proven unable to manage their own studios in a way that is condusive to that. They seem to worry more about revenue streams (gaas, subscription services, dlc, etc.) Than actual great games, so I'm not that hopeful for next gen.
This is all speculation and so I’m not going to address it much. Only time will tell what these studios can or can’t produce.
 
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Panajev2001a

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the essentially mandatory PS+ subscription. I wouldn’t play enough to justify it, but would get annoyed when I wanted to play with someone, but didn’t have it.
Do not get this point though... how is it any different from any other console out now? Also, it seems like you are over punishing the ecosystem for the PS3 hack too much though.

If MS is serious about games being available to anyone on any device MAU is certainly the only way to measure the success
That MAU is an important number, I think we can agree on. What is actually measures and how you can build upon that for future business growth / how you can monetise that active user base has the biggest implications.

Under that lens you can see why Sony would be a bit upset with games that pushed Xbox LIVE login that helped them keep or raise that MAU metric.

For a third party that releases their games on any ecosystem yeah, sales of HW matter a lot less. Xbox right now is in this mix state of trying to drive business to mostly their ecosystem (Windows PC + Xbox HW) and adding other devices for the odd game (Minecraft, Cuphead, etc...) as well as trying to expand to almost all devices.

With iOS, Android, PC, etc... MAU has potential to grow and stay strong, but to spend a lot in developing consoles after console at a reasonable MSRP the HW needs to pickup the slack too: more HW == mire potential MAU’s.
 
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it_wasn't_me

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The number of users are higher than the installed base of the Xbox One (around 40-45 million), makes me wonder if is the PC users, lots of 360s still connected and people with two or more accounts.
Minecraft via mobile is also counted as MAU

Because this console generation is ending and anyone who wanted by a Xbox One has already bought it, and the rest are waiting for Scarlet.
Console generation is ending is a bad excuse. Year and a half till next console launch is a still a long way. Last quarter was a 33% drop, now is 48%. You wont see that kind of drop for PS4 in next report.


Funny thing is that MAU is up, but software revenue is down. LOL
 
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Kagey K

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Minecraft via mobile is also counted as MAU



Console generation is ending is a bad excuse. Year and a half till next console launch is a still a long way. Last quarter was a 33% drop, now is 48%. You wont see that kind of drop for PS4 in next report.
PS is going to show close to a 30% decline.

That’s not insignificant.
 

Kagey K

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Because their forecast. In last few years they were spot on.
Well it’s pretty easy to be accurate if you change them through the year.

I can say I’m going to sell 100 million of something and the after I sold 0 in quarter 1 and say I’m going to sell 0 and I’d be right.


 
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it_wasn't_me

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Well it’s pretty easy to be accurate if you change them through the year.

I can say I’m going to sell 100 million of something and the after I sold 0 in quarter 1 and say I’m going to sell 0 and I’d be right.


That was 18 years ago. IIRC for PS4 they've changed forecast IIRC once or twice since 2013
 
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This is all speculation and so I’m not going to address it much. Only time will tell what these studios can or can’t produce.
You are right, and this is the problem, MS should strive to finish the generation with a boom. Sony released The Last of Us just a couple of months before the ps4 was out (after years of great releases by their studios). when the ps4 came everybody knew that they would follow up with more, it took longer than I would have liked, but as of now the ps4 is a system that you cannot pass by if you're a gamer that like single player games.

As for the MAU thing, I still think that this is a distraction, PC games sales aren't really*Xbox" games sales.
 

Kagey K

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As for the MAU thing, I still think that this is a distraction, PC games sales aren't really*Xbox" games sales.
Why is that?

Something is not jiving here.

Are they Pc game sales? Are they Epic game sales? Are they steam game sales?

Pc always gets to be this generic thing that everyone ignores, but we all know it’s there. Just waiting to bubble up.
 
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RevenantX

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Hardware decline by 48% isn't good at all. Gaming revenue down by 10%

Maybe this coming holiday season they'll do great bundles
New hardware coming plus console itself has no true exclusives. So it's expected. Playanywhere bound to affect hardware sale. But im a console gamer and keep buying console as long as they making it.
 
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Panajev2001a

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Why is that?

Something is not jiving here.

Are they Pc game sales? Are they Epic game sales? Are they steam game sales?

Pc always gets to be this generic thing that everyone ignores, but we all know it’s there. Just waiting to bubble up.
Well, Xbox division gets a cut for every game sold on the platform, but not on PC unless they pay for GamePass (you do not need to pay for LIVE Gold on PC, right?)... would this be what the poster was hinting at?
 
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Xbox hardware death spiral.
  1. Sales slow down
  2. Less exclusives are produced internally and externally
  3. repeat
What do you do in this situation where things are so bad that third parties don't even want to consider producing exclusives for your platform?

You buy development studios, so they must produce content for your platform.

Of course, you can't afford top tier dev talent. You have need to settle for second or even third best.

So a platform that is already struggling for relevance is now relying on non-AAA devs to punch above their weight. In an attempt to turn things around or just keep the service revenue rolling in while the platform slowly withers and dies.
 

Kagey K

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Xbox hardware death spiral.
  1. Sales slow down
  2. Less exclusives are produced internally and externally
  3. repeat
What do you do in this situation where things are so bad that third parties don't even want to consider producing exclusives for your platform?

You buy development studios, so they must produce content for your platform.

Of course, you can't afford top tier dev talent. You have need to settle for second or even third best.

So a platform that is already struggling for relevance is now relying on non-AAA devs to punch above their weight. In an attempt to turn things around or just keep the service revenue rolling in while the platform slowly withers and dies.
Yeah I get that, we saw it happens between OG Xbox, Xbox 369 and Xbox One, no doubt they continue the trend.

How did nobody else see this?
 
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Pc always gets to be this generic thing that everyone ignores, but we all know it’s there. Just waiting to bubble up.
PC is by definition a more or less generic thing, they're a collection of either brand name or custom built computers, mostly running windows (Linux counts as well) all kind or hardware to perform all kinds of tasks from simple email clients all the way to rendering the most complex 3D graphics and editing, encoding 8k videos or real time 3D graphics with dedicated hardware, etc.

so you buying games that have the xbox/Microsoft logo on a PC doesn't make you a console gamer anymore than buying games from Ubisoft/EA/Activision/etc. that are also on consoles make you a console gamer, even tho they publish their games on consoles just like Microsoft does now.



I mean, this has to take the crown in therms of PR fallacy.
 

Kagey K

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PC is by definition a more or less generic thing, they're a collection of either brand name or custom built computers, mostly running windows (Linux counts as well) all kind or hardware to perform all kinds of tasks from simple email clients all the way to rendering the most complex 3D graphics and editing, encoding 8k videos or real time 3D graphics with dedicated hardware, etc.

so you buying games that have the xbox/Microsoft logo on a PC doesn't make you a console gamer anymore than buying games from Ubisoft/EA/Activision/etc. that are also on consoles make you a console gamer, even tho they publish their games on consoles just like Microsoft does now.



I mean, this has to take the crown in therms of PR fallacy.
Tell that to everyone fighting about Steam Epic and GOG.

Don’t give me that shit. It’s not some magic kingdom on the PC side, and you guys seem to fight worse.
 

Cynn

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Yes its time for $200 and less bundles. The SAD should go to $99 for the holiday season.
I don’t get why the SAD didn’t launch at $100 as it seemed like the whole point of the thing. Anyone who buys it becomes a subscription customer or an exclusive Xbox digital customer. That’s a big up for MS.

Sell the thing for $100, toss in a game and game pass trial and get back in there.
 
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Don’t give me that shit. It’s not some magic kingdom on the PC side, and you guys seem to fight worse.
I have a gaming PC as well as many consoles + a dedicated HTPC for emulation and media streaming, so I'm not sure what you mean by "you people".

Microsoft deciding to muddy the waters of their accounting doesn't change the reality that PC gaming and console gaming do not overlap that much, sure people argue about Steam/Epic (Gog not so much as far as I know, everybody loves them)... Nobody likes the Windows Store or the xbox app on PC, PC gamers also fight between AMD V.S. Intel/nvidia, they remain on the same platform, heck you can even install Linux and configure it to run your windows games (somewhat) if you want, it remains the same open platform.

The Xbox console is not compatible with your PC, neither are the PS4 or Switch, even if they share CPU and/OR GPU architectural similitude.
 

Gashtronomy

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Does MAU include people who have downloaded a game on gamepass and aren't necessarily playing on live? :unsure:
 

DanielsM

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Does MAU include people who have downloaded a game on gamepass and aren't necessarily playing on live? :unsure:
I believe MAU is just how many people have logged into XBL, of course, that's easy to do with a MS account on PC, also its not per device... meaning you can have multiple accounts which most people have. MAU is a stupid metric, generally speaking. You don't even have to download a game to be considered a MAU, or subscribe to Gold or play online... just log in as far as I know.
 
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Gashtronomy

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I believe MAU is just how many people have logged into XBL, of course, that's easy to do with a MS account on PC, also its not per device... meaning you can have multiple accounts which most people have. MAU is a stupid metric, generally speaking. You don't even have to download a game to be considered a MAU, or subscribe to Gold or play online... just log in as far as I know.
Then it isn't a suprise thst the number has gone up if more people are downloading the pc app.

Although if thats the case I would expect the number to be much, much higher