Microsoft Studios (& Partners) Current and Future Landscape

Jun 9, 2015
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Bold prediction: State of Decay 2 is going to outsell Gears 4

The first game sold well over a million copies despite being janky to the point of making Bethesda games look polished. It's the sort of open-world co-op game that is absolutely killing it with the mass market these days. And contrary to what GAF may think, people still like zombies.

Everyone is sleeping on it big time.
I agree. I also think SoT could be a bit of a hit even though there is a lot of doom and gloom about the game on here.
 
Dec 9, 2013
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Bold prediction: State of Decay 2 is going to outsell Gears 4

The first game sold well over a million copies despite being janky to the point of making Bethesda games look polished. It's the sort of open-world co-op game that is absolutely killing it with the mass market these days. And contrary to what GAF may think, people still like zombies.

Everyone is sleeping on it big time.
I mean Gears 4 opened really low( in comparison with other titles) and it wasn't heavily bundled either. It'll probably end up around 3 million or so LTD. so it's not unreasonable to say SoD could outsell that
 
Aug 20, 2015
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Like i've said, SoT metrics are absolutely abysmal. It's not just that it isn't getting picked up by people outside of the Xbox fanbase - the game just doesn't have a lot going for it from a presentation standpoint. Its gonna take a miracle for that game to turn around in the next 9 months if its really launching late this year/early next year.
 
Dec 13, 2006
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steverulez.co.uk
@Nightengale
I'm surprised that State of Decay is more popular than Sea of Thieves.

Also, it's kinda worrisome how low is Crackdown but there isn't much to talk about it since nothing has shown since that tech demo.
They havent shown us CD3 in 18 months, I bet most people dont know its still a thing.

A lot of people played SOD on 360/Steam/XB1 (4m or so?), not surprised its above SOT which has the videos but the alpha is NDA'd I think?
 
Jun 3, 2014
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State of decay isn't tracking far behind gears to be fair considering we've seen virtually nothing of it and gears has 5 games vs 2 so naturally there should be more searches for the franchise

And games like sea of thieves live and die by twitch. I think sot will be big also but I'm basing that off the fact it's a twitch game. Like most neogaf, I don't understand it either but twitch games like that always sell a ton.
 
Dec 9, 2013
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@Nightengale
I'm surprised that State of Decay is more popular than Sea of Thieves.

Also, it's kinda worrisome how low is Crackdown but there isn't much to talk about it since nothing has shown since that tech demo.
CD3 has basically been radio silent for almost 2 years now. I don't expect people on the mainstream to remember it. That's why E3 should be a big splash for it( if things are done right)
 
May 17, 2014
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I mean Gears 4 opened really low( in comparison with other titles) and it wasn't heavily bundled either. It'll probably end up around 3 million or so LTD. so it's not unreasonable to say SoD could outsell that
Pretty much. What I'm ultimately trying to say is just because there's no Gears or Halo this year doesn't mean Microsoft doesn't have anything potentially worthwhile from a sales perspective. Gears is still big but nowhere what it was last generation.
 
Jun 12, 2013
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@Nightengale
I'm surprised that State of Decay is more popular than Sea of Thieves.

Also, it's kinda worrisome how low is Crackdown but there isn't much to talk about it since nothing has shown since that tech demo.
State of Decay is an established million-seller IP that is well-liked, even if a bit under the radar. And again, zombie games, like sports games and big twitch stream games, have a big audience outside the hardcore gaming audience. It's a blindspot for communities like ours.

Crackdown just has very poor buzz at the moment nor has anything they showed made people excited to talk about it for extended periods of time.
 
Apr 22, 2013
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Lima
They havent shown us CD3 in 18 months, I bet most people dont know its still a thing.

A lot of people played SOD on 360/Steam/XB1 (4m or so?), not surprised its above SOT which has the videos but the alpha is NDA'd I think?
Didn't know SoD was so popular. I guess that's my case of fatigue with zombie games.

About Crackdown, it seems like the widespread perception is that the game is in the brink of being cancelled.
 
Bold prediction: State of Decay 2 is going to outsell Gears 4

The first game sold well over a million copies despite being janky to the point of making Bethesda games look polished. It's the sort of open-world co-op game that is absolutely killing it with the mass market these days. And contrary to what GAF may think, people still like zombies.

Everyone is sleeping on it big time.
I agree with you. I really enjoyed SoD, and I am very excited for the coop aspect of SoD2.

I also got into the alpha for SoT this weekend. Lots of co-op on the horizon :D It's what I look for most in games now a days.
 
May 16, 2012
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Sea of Thieves could have a huge Destiny-like following or it could completely flop. A lot of that will depend on the post-launch content and meaningful reasons for players to come back every week, which Destiny does so well.
 
May 17, 2014
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Sea of Thieves is either going to need a huge, positive showing at E3 or Rare and Microsoft are going to have to pray that word of mouth and streamers can give it some legs. I feel like buzz for it is a little low even on GAF.
 
Dec 13, 2006
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steverulez.co.uk
Sea of Thieves is either going to need a huge, positive showing at E3 or Rare and Microsoft are going to have to pray that word of mouth and streamers can give it some legs. I feel like buzz for it is a little low even on GAF.
I dont think Gaf would do much for a game like SOT in general but I think they need to just building their alpha and push towards launch next year
 
Jun 12, 2013
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Sea of Thieves could have a huge Destiny-like following or it could completely flop. A lot of that will depend on the post-launch content and meaningful reasons for players to come back every week, which Destiny does so well.
I feel like a better comparison would be stuff like H1Z1, PU's Battlegrounds, etc. Started small, organically grew and became huge.

Destiny had ridiculously huge buzz that enabled an extremely big audience on day-one, and then sustained a huge following.

If the metrics of SoT holds, it won't have that day-one mega buzz but will have to come out to a smaller, more core base of enthusiast and whether or not it becomes something bigger will be more of an organic growth via Twitch audience building, etc.
 
Jun 3, 2014
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I feel like a better comparison would be stuff like H1Z1, PU's Battlegrounds, etc. Started small, organically grew and became huge.

Destiny had ridiculously huge buzz that enabled an extremely big audience on day-one, and then sustained a huge following.

If the metrics of SoT holds, it won't have that day-one mega buzz but will have to come out to a smaller, more core base of enthusiast and whether or not it becomes something bigger will be more of an organic growth via Twitch audience building, etc.
Well that depends on the response to the open beta whenever that happens. But yeah its not touching destiny buzz.
 
Apr 22, 2013
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Lima
Sea of Thieves could have a huge Destiny-like following or it could completely flop. A lot of that will depend on the post-launch content and meaningful reasons for players to come back every week, which Destiny does so well.
Sea of Thieves needs a free to play entry option.

The game is being developed with heavy user feedback, I think the idea of the developers was to build the game with the community, so I kinda expect the game to be light on content at launch. However, currently reviews are harsh to MMO-like games light of content; launching without a free to play option would make it be shread appart by critics, shinking the game in the process.
 
Dec 9, 2013
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Sea of Thieves is either going to need a huge, positive showing at E3 or Rare and Microsoft are going to have to pray that word of mouth and streamers can give it some legs. I feel like buzz for it is a little low even on GAF.
I think it needs to be shown in general. The general public has only seen the ship combat and people laughing. While that helps they are gonna have to show customization, more weapons and combat, quest structures maybe boss characters etc
 
Jan 19, 2016
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Sea of Thieves could have a huge Destiny-like following or it could completely flop. A lot of that will depend on the post-launch content and meaningful reasons for players to come back every week, which Destiny does so well.
Whenever they show Sea of Thieves I keep thinking it's either has a long way to go development wise, or I'm just not getting it. Where are the towns, quests, NPCs, etc? Will it have voice acting? Any kind of story? Or is it just supposed like a pirate version of H1Z1 or something?
 
Dec 13, 2006
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steverulez.co.uk
Whenever they show Sea of Thieves I keep thinking it's either has a long way to go development wise, or I'm just not getting it. Where are the towns, quests, NPCs, etc? Will it have voice acting? Any kind of story? Or is it just supposed like a pirate version of H1Z1 or something?
This is largely my issue, outside of running a pirate ship im not sure what you actually do in it. Which kinda answers itself but im not sure that has much longevity
 
Aug 3, 2015
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Let playtonic make banjo threeie, make an Ori 3D platform (I would die for this), make a deal with mistwalker for Lost Odyssey 2, revive Fable and PGR etc...

There are a lot of things MS could do with their IPs. Hopefully we'll see something in the future.
 
Jun 12, 2013
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Yeah, SoT has a very engaging core that is very community and co-op friendly ( treasure island, ship manning and ship combat ), but the more they show their ongoing alpha stuff, the more it feels like they've only got those things landed so far.

W-W-where are the towns?
 
May 16, 2012
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The problem is we (non alpha participants) don't really know much about the game. Does the game have anything resembling weekly strikes or raids? Is the loot system generous like Diablo or stingy like early Destiny? Is there a main hub to meet other players?
 
May 17, 2014
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I think it needs to be shown in general. The general public has only seen the ship combat and people laughing. While that helps they are gonna have to show customization, more weapons and combat, quest structures maybe boss characters etc
Considering everything that they haven't shown or barely even talked about yet, I'm growing skeptical about it being anywhere close to launching. I could almost see them just going full early access with it at some point and slowly adding in everything they've promised. Though as you said they've barely shown it to the wider audience.
 
Apr 26, 2014
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Brazil
Patience has limits, glad to see that Steve's has finally run out. He's reacting to reality and showing he's got some critical sense in him, unlike people like gamz and blake who will eat up anything Microsoft does. The Xbox division doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt from anyone at this point. Their game development process looks like a total mess from a outsider's perspective, for a multitude of reasons. The only thing they can do to remedy this is surprise people and prove them wrong. But I doubt they even want to do that. I know I won't be holding my breath.
 
Jan 19, 2016
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We should be worried about the very real scenario that Crackdown 3 and Sea of Thieves actually tank this holiday and what that means for the future of an already depleted first party portfolio. Does Rare survive if SoT sinks?

Btw does anyone know how well Halo Wars 2 and Voodoo Vince are doing?

I don't want to sound like I'm concern trolling but really, things aren't great lol
 
Jun 9, 2015
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Google Trend results of the big MS E3 announcements from last year and how their interest levels are at respective periods of time ( high during E3, etc )
Ahh, that's a really cool thing. Thanks for posting it.

Gears is an established franchise so should be on top, SoD seems like it could break out if they really deliver on the sequel, Scalebound is just sad and for CD3 and SoT im not surprised they are that low, SoT is a new IP that hasn't had a lot of mainstream exposure and CD3 hasn't been seen or heard of in years.

I'm still of the opinion that SoD2 and SoT are going to be hits, E3 has to be massive for them though - complete and utter blowouts are required.
 
Jun 12, 2013
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MS has definitely struggled to excite with their announcements out-the-gate and get people talking and voraciously excited for their line-up in the same way that Sony has been far more successful with games like Horizon, Crash & God of War; and Nintendo so casually with Zelda.

In terms of big announcements on MS's stage that they have really successfully owned, executed and masterfully taken advantage of the announcement hype to release this gen... is probably only Titanfall and Forza Horizon 3.

To put the context of that Google Trends image relative to how other big game reveals generated more awareness and search interest, here's how they look when compared to Sony's big ones. (Days Gone is too generic a term and Spiderman is never not big, plus movie dilutes search results)

For a separate context, Zelda's interest and awareness around E3 trending are triple that of Crash/God of War.

 
Dec 13, 2006
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steverulez.co.uk
Patience has limits, glad to see that Steve's has finally run out. He's reacting to reality and showing he's got some critical sense in him, unlike people like gamz and blake who will eat up anything Microsoft does. The Xbox division doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt from anyone at this point. Their game development process looks like a total mess from a outsider's perspective, for a multitude of reasons. The only thing they can do to remedy this is surprise people and prove them wrong. But I doubt they even want to do that. I know I won't be holding my breath.
I think there are things they are doing right: Scorpio seems like a nice box, Game Pass is good, Elite controller/BC etc are good but on the games side, they got some serious issues and its hard to work out where they start and end.

I dont really see where they things on the software side are going, maybe they got some good surprises for us, I dont think Scorpio will mean as much as they are hoping for without the software support from MS though
 
Mar 1, 2012
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I think there are things they are doing right: Scorpio seems like a nice box, Game Pass is good, Elite controller/BC etc are good but on the games side, they got some serious issues and its hard to work out where they start and end.

I dont really see where they things on the software side are going, maybe they got some good surprises for us, I dont think Scorpio will mean as much as they are hoping for without the software support from MS though
They got software support from thrid party, that's all MS need.
 
Jun 2, 2009
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We should be worried about the very real scenario that Crackdown 3 and Sea of Thieves actually tank this holiday and what that means for the future of an already depleted first party portfolio. Does Rare survive if SoT sinks?

Btw does anyone know how well Halo Wars 2 and Voodoo Vince are doing?

I don't want to sound like I'm concern trolling but really, things aren't great lol
if SoT tanks we'll really see how MS handles giving a studio some freedom. sure, not every idea pans out but to grow new IPs you need to risk a flop or two. what really needs to happen is for 343 and TC to try new things.

I wonder if this is related to that old Cry On project
 
Apr 26, 2014
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I think there are things they are doing right: Scorpio seems like a nice box, Game Pass is good, Elite controller/BC etc are good but on the games side, they got some serious issues and its hard to work out where they start and end.

I dont really see where they things on the software side are going, maybe they got some good surprises for us, I dont think Scorpio will mean as much as they are hoping for without the software support from MS though
Oh don't get me wrong, I think are killing on everything else. Hardware, features, policies. But they are failing monumentally on what matters the most, which is infuriating. To me it negates all the goods things they're doing. If things stay like this, the competition will always have a way more attractive box to me even with worse graphics, shitty network and anti-consumer practices.
 
Aug 20, 2015
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We should be worried about the very real scenario that Crackdown 3 and Sea of Thieves actually tank this holiday and what that means for the future of an already depleted first party portfolio. Does Rare survive if SoT sinks?

Btw does anyone know how well Halo Wars 2 and Voodoo Vince are doing?

I don't want to sound like I'm concern trolling but really, things aren't great lol
RE: Rare/SoT - Honestly, considering how budgeting has been for that project (unnecessarily high) and that it's going to be launching as a $60 boxed product, I do get the feeling that some very rough stuff might befall them if they don't do well. And honestly, sales expectations are already unreasonably high for SoT. They are going about that title completely wrong.

If I remember correctly, HW2's sales were really poor. No idea on Voodoo Vince.
 
Apr 14, 2016
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You're probably right. But it's not all I need. So if that's where their mindset is, they can fuck right off as far as I and many others are corcerned.
Few others actually. First-party games aren't the ones who define the success or doom of a videogame, but here on GAF this is a widespread belief because it's one of the differences between Sony and MS. MS is doing the right thing to make the third-party games best on its consumer-friendly platform. If they can get the windows store (pc part for that matter) right then they will be a incredible strong position. I'm still baffled that people will buy anything from Sony when they have so much anti-consumer policies, especially with the growth of PC market.
 
Jan 19, 2005
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Few others actually. First-party games aren't the ones who define the success or doom of a videogame, but here on GAF this is a widespread belief because it's one of the differences between Sony and MS. MS is doing the right thing to make the third-party games best on its consumer-friendly platform. If they can get the windows store (pc part for that matter) right then they will be a incredible strong position. I'm still baffled that people will buy anything from Sony when they have so much anti-consumer policies, especially with the growth of PC market.
First party games don't sell like third party games do (for obvious reasons) but they absolutely do matter. Or we wouldn't be in this thread discussing them.
 
Apr 8, 2016
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Last year at E3 Forza Horizon 3 was my most excited game announcement.

This year honestly I have little hype for SOD, CD3, SOT. Believe it or not my most anticipated game is whatever artist Thomas Mahler has in store for us next. Ori is a work of art in game form. If I was Phil I would've approached Thomas Mahler and his crew to work for them as 1st party. It would add a lot of diversity in their lineup and consistency going forward. Dude is clearly VERY talented and I would very much prefer games like Ori over anything else really. Ori is one amazing game.