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[Salty Hippo]

Some of you guys are missing the point, look at 3 years of releases.

2015- 6 Triple AAA exclusives
-Ori (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Rare replay
-Gears ultimate
(Two games we couldn't predict because they were working on them as secondary games)
-Forza Motorsport 7
-HALO 5
-Rise of the tomb raider (We couldn't predict because it was a third party relationship)

2016- 6 Triple AAA exclusives
-Quantum break (We couldn't predict because it was second party and now we don't if remedy will work with Ms again)
-Recore (We couldn't predict because it was second party)
-Forza horizon 3
-killer Instinct season 3(we don't if iron galaxy is working on a sequel due to second party)
-Gears of war 4
-Dead Rising 4 (We couldn't predict because second party)

2017- 8 Triple AAA exclusives
-Halo wars 2 (We couldn't predict because second party)
-sea of thieves
-Scalebound (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Forza motorsport 7
-State of decay 2 (Kinda of hard two predict a Triple AAA sequel)
-Crackdown 3 (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Heavily rumoured Ori sequel (Kinda hard two predict because second party)
-Phantom dust HD (We couldn't predict because second party)

2018- 2? Triple AAA exclusives
-Halo 6?
-Forza horizon 4?

2019- 2?
-Gears 5?
-Forza motorsport 8?

The point here being you can't predict ms games each year because of reliance (if not dependence) on second party relationships. But one thing you can tell is since Phil has taken over number of exclusives and size of games are getting bigger and more second party relationships are being formed (that 14 games in development number.)

New ip this generation-
-Ori (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Project spark
-Quantum break (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Ryse (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Recore (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Scalebound (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Screamride (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Sea of thieves
-Sunset overdrive (We couldn't predict because second party)
-Crimson dragon (We couldn't predict because second party)
-D4 (We couldn't predict because second party)

Even the new ip's to look forward two cannot be predicted and this is only going to get harder with Phil spencer talking recently about quick announcement to release (within 12 months.)

The first year of Xbox One had:

Killer Instinct
Dead Rising 3
Ryse
Forza 5
Crimson Dragon
D4
KSR
Forza Horizon 2
Sunset Overdrive
Halo MCC

None of the years your posted are any better than these first 12 months. Phil Spencer has, AT BEST, just been maintaining the status quo of a typical slow generation start. Virtually every console ever released has always had a slow start, and it's usually by the third year or so that you see the output explode. That's happening with PS4 now. It's not even close to happen with Xbox.

And before you say "we don't know what MS has", that's the point. We SHOULD know. Sony does it smart by announcing things early. It drives interest, it makes people talk, it shapes the perception of the console, it makes their brand strong. With Xbox, it's possible they have a bunch of stuff in the pipeline yes, but it's also possible (and arguably more likely given the past 6-7 years) that they don't. People can't get excited about what they don't know. And that's why so many here look at the list and see an anemic lineup. It hurts your brand and makes gamers (the well-informed ones at least) question your commitment to this business.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Substantially broadening the Xbox audience by courting AAA JRPG's is not realistic. The majority of that audience is elsewhere.

Xbox needs to capitalize on their strengths before trying to put an ineffectual band-aid on their weaknesses. Where's the next big western IP similar to Gears/Halo? They can't simply keep coasting on those two, that much is obvious.

While I think the vast majority of us would be thrilled for MS to briefly retire Halo and Gears, I wonder how it would work.

Halo and Gears have significantly declined from their predecessors and they want to create a new IP that is not only a success but one that can potentially join the ranks of Halo and Gears in becoming a core IP. We want to see them do what Sony did with Guerrilla and start something completely fresh that they hope will become big.

The issue is, what would they use to carry Xbox between shelving Halo Gears/making the new IP? They would have to go a few years without their big franchises while they make the new IP and they don't have anything that could hold them over and draw in some type of revenue like Halo and Gears did. The third party partnerships help fill out the lineup but they can't be used to carry it.

So, in a sense, MS can't create those new IP because they would be stuck between a rock and a hard place. Even more if those new IP wouldn't hit.

Than again, I look at how Sony had ND create three UC last generation and let them end with a new IP that went on to become huge. This was while Sony's state as a company was worrying, to say the least. That may just come down to PS being far more vital to Sony than Xbox is to MS though. It is also probably why we don't see MS making risky moves in general with Xbox. They could do it but they don't have any need to do it.

 

[LordRaptor]

And before you say "we don't know what MS has", that's the point. We SHOULD know. Sony does it smart by announcing things early. It drives interest, it makes people talk, it shapes the perception of the console, it makes their brand strong. With Xbox, it's possible they have a bunch of stuff in the pipeline yes, but it's also possible (and arguably more likely given the past 6-7 years) that they don't.

Giving some credence to this line of thinking is that MS have never historically been shy of showing things as upcoming well before they are in any sort of development stage approaching imminent release.

I mean, they're not The Last Guardian bad, but...

 

[Salty Hippo]

RROD aside, Peter Moore era MS was the best by far. The first few years of 360 were incredible.

Yes. And even with the RROD, which wasn't at all Moore's fault, he treated the problem like a champ and salvaged the brand. There's a very interesting segment about this in an episode of IGN's Xbox podcast.

 

[Bits N Pieces]

Some people prefer to hear about games that are two+ years away and some prefer a shorter reveal to release turnaround. I am definitely in the latter's camp.

 

[FelipeMGM]

Some of you guys are missing the point, look at 3 years of releases.

I think you are a missing a point too calling a bunch of these AAA games...

 

[labaronx]

I think you are a missing a point too calling a bunch of these AAA games...

Yeah killer instinct seasons are dlc expansions not new releases

 

[Salty Hippo]

Giving some credence to this line of thinking is that MS have never historically been shy of showing things as upcoming well before they are in any sort of development stage approaching imminent release.

I mean, they're not The Last Guardian bad, but...

Yes. Some argue that because of Phantom Dust's and Fable's cancellations, Spencer has been holding announcements back. It's possible, but it's also nothing but conjecture. I guess we will find out at this year's E3.

 

[krang]

Playground's second game is a new IP, right? So it couldn't possibly be Fable...

 

[Hoo-doo]

Some people prefer to hear about games that are two+ years away and some prefer a shorter reveal to release turnaround. I am definitely in the latter's camp.

There's no real proven divide in this approach between Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft though.

 

[mejin]

Right now I question myself what are the plans of MS for the xbox brand. Are they really trying?

XBO gen seems a huge step back compared with 360. First party got rekt and 3rd party is really falling behind.

Since this is the 3rd gen of MS, they should be in a better position when we talk about first party. But they put themselves in a situation where the massive focus on Halo, Gears and Forza took them nowhere.

 

[labaronx]

Yes. Some argue that because of Phantom Dust's and Fable's cancellations, Spencer has been holding announcements back. It's possible, but it's also nothing but conjecture. I guess we will find out at this year's E3.

We say that every year... still no battle toads

This year for sure though

 

[Salty Hippo]

We say that every year... still no battle toads

This year for sure though

Last time I've believed it was before E3 2015. There was even a Banjo "leak" that turned out to be fake. Went into 2016 with negative expectations and avoided the disappointment. Will do the same this year.

Playground's second game is a new IP, right? So it couldn't possibly be Fable...

All they've said is it's a genre they've never done before. It could be literally anything, even a multiplatform game. I would love a super ambitious Crimsom Skies, but it will never, ever happen.

 

[Sydle]

I've actually been thinking about making a thread on that very subject. With Scorpio releasing this year its put everything up in the air.

Say Scorpio releases in November of this year, do Microsoft wait to put out SoT, Crackdown, Scalebound and SoD2 around release (very congested) or do they release those games earlier and lose immediate sales through people waiting to buy Scorpio and play those games on that machine (loss of revenue)?

Its a prickly situation to be in and honestly, I don't know the best way to deal with it?

Pray RDR2 and Destiny 2 are delayed? Or try to beat them to market by a month or so?

The big movers for Xbox One were still Halo, Gears and Forza. And the problem is that not even these franchises are pulling numbers like they used to.
If Microsoft had their studios lined up for a handful of new franchises at the start of this generation, I don't think we would have seen this current level of apathy. They could have kept building and diversifying from there.

They have lost a lot in comparison with last generation, but they still have tons of space to maneuver. Hopefully they realize by now that doubling down on three core last-gen franchises isn't enough to keep a steady base of interest going. They need to go big and let their studios breathe and experiment with new stuff instead of leashing them to one franchise forever.

This, but I still think we should get new entries in Forza, Gears, and Halo once every 4-7 years, maybe each with smaller teams supporting DLC content to keep those fan bases happy.

Some people prefer to hear about games that are two+ years away and some prefer a shorter reveal to release turnaround. I am definitely in the latter's camp.

I think the problem with announcing nearly everything years out is that the element of surprise and the excitement that comes with it is lost. I feel like this is MS's bigger problem, that they have become so safe and predictable that it's hard to get and stay excited by the platform.

 

[Trago]

Definitely the smallest of the bunch.

There is some serious talent under Microsoft, but it would be nice and exciting if their top teams worked on new ip's. Maybe Microsoft doesn't feel that it's worth it for, say, 343i to develop a new AAA ip.

Maybe such a thing could pay off.

 

[bidguy]

Pray RDR2 and Destiny 2 are delayed? Or try to beat them to market by a month or so?



This, but I still think we should get new entries in Forza, Gears, and Halo once every 4-7 years, maybe each with smaller teams supporting DLC content to keep those fan bases happy.

you dont honestly believe rdr2 comes out this year do you ?

 

[JlNX]

The first year of Xbox One had:

Killer Instinct
Dead Rising 3
Ryse
Forza 5
Crimson Dragon
D4
KSR
Forza Horizon 2
Sunset Overdrive
Halo MCC

None of the years your posted are any better than these first 12 months. Phil Spencer has, AT BEST, just been maintaining the status quo of a typical slow generation start. Virtually every console ever released has always had a slow start, and it's usually by the third year or so that you see the output explode. That's happening with PS4 now. It's not even close to happen with Xbox.

And before you say "we don't know what MS has", that's the point. We SHOULD know. Sony does it smart by announcing things early. It drives interest, it makes people talk, it shapes the perception of the console, it makes their brand strong. With Xbox, it's possible they have a bunch of stuff in the pipeline yes, but it's also possible (and arguably more likely given the past 6-7 years) that they don't. People can't get excited about what they don't know. And that's why so many here look at the list and see an anemic lineup. It hurts your brand and makes gamers (the well-informed ones at least) question your commitment to this business.

Yes knowing about upcoming games for the next 3 years is nice for Neogaf conversations, not for business or marketing or the general public who only think a year ahead. Even with Neogaf there has been games announced early but loose all hype because of the drawn out marketing (cuphead, scalebound crackdown) announcing super early hasn't worked for them. And given what Phil spencer has said that won't be changing in the near future, were going to have to wait and see isn't that exciting!!!

Also your point about the release lineup, those are often gathered up from the last few years of 360 before being pushed as launch games for the one like Ryse. Dead rising 3 was just a nice development time lineup. Killer instinct was rushed out the door in 8-12 months and Kinect sports rivals was obviously rushed.

 

[Sydle]

you dont honestly believe rdr2 comes out this year do you ?

I thought it was a targeted 2017 release. My bad if that's not the case.

 

[FelipeMGM]

I thought it was a targeted 2017 release. My bad if that's not the case.

It is, but based on R* history its higly possible to get hit by a delay.

Hope it doesnt tho

 

[JlNX]

I think the best strategy for Microsoft going forward is to expanded the size of 343, Coalition, Rare. Expanded Studios to allow for a two team development cycle per studio like what there Rumoured to be doing with Rare. 343 works on a new ip, coalition works on shangheist. If the ip’s work out in the near future gears or halo is dropped and that team heads up the next new ip. It becomes a cycle that is less risky than a new studio. If one team fails the other picks up the slack.

 

[HeisenbergWW62]

Looking ahead we can pretty much predict their E3
Halo 6 announcement
Forza 7 announcement
Sea of Thieves
Scalebound
Crackdown 3
State of Decay 2
Another live demo of 6 year old Minecraft
Third party games
Scorpio stuff
5 minute segment of new Xbox live features

I doubt we see Rare's other new IP until SoT is out. Hopefully the have a surprise or two "second party" new IP announcements because if they don't, yikes. As someone who became an xbox fan with the 360, they really lost me after last E3's abysmal announcements. Would like to see if they can pull me back in

 

[PanicFreak]

Microsoft really should let 343i work on a different IP. Turn 10 is a racing studio so it doesn't matter if they work on something other than Forza. The Coalition literally just took over the Gears franchise so I would t mind a couple more Gears games first.

But 343 is talented and has made two Halo games. After Halo 6 comes out, I would like to see them do something different, even it was a digital only game.

 

[Trago]

Microsoft really should let 343i work on a different IP. Turn 10 is a racing studio so it doesn't matter if they work on something other than Forza. The Coalition literally just took over the Gears franchise so I would t mind a couple more Gears games first.

But 343 is talented and has made two Halo games. After Halo 6 comes out, I would like to see them do something different, even it was a digital only game.

There are a ton of talented industry veterans over at 343i. It would be a shame if they were stuck on Halo forever.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

15 years in the business and this is what they have to show for it. Microsoft gives so little back to the industry i reallly wonder if the landschape would change at all, should they bow out.

MS could have went in during Sony's PS3 missteps. Coming off the absolutely dominant PS2 into Sony's most vulnerable position since entering the market, MS was in shape to bulk up for the future. Instead, they rested on their laurels and have nothing to show for what they did during last generation. They should have got some studios and started expanding their mentalities.

Of course, I always go back to will and intent and passion. MS just isn't in this for the exact same reasons as Sony and Nintendo.

 

[JlNX]

Looking ahead we can pretty much predict their E3
Halo 6 announcement
Forza 7 announcement
Sea of Thieves
Scalebound
Crackdown 3
State of Decay 2
Another live demo of 6 year old Minecraft
Third party games
Scorpio stuff
5 minute segment of new Xbox live features

I doubt we see Rare's other new IP until SoT is out. Hopefully the have a surprise or two "second party" new IP announcements because if they don't, yikes. As someone who became an xbox fan with the 360, they really lost me after last E3's abysmal announcements. Would like to see if they can pull me back in

Well that would mean only two exclusives in 2018 which would be a big step down from this years eight and last years 6. They have to be announcing their 2018 lineup, we know of two Halo and Forza. Which means based on their usual number of exclusives we are looking at four to six game announcements which would predominantly have to be new ip as i can't think of any sequels.

 

[LowerLevel]

Still excited about Scalebound and whatever Moon Studios is working on and I can't wait to play Cuphead, but that's about it for me.

State of Decay 2 is my most looked forward to title, even over Persona and Crackdown. Cuphead, Ace Combat, Scalebound, HW2 and maybe Horizon round out my list. If Forza 7 is definitely coming this year, that's my number one. E3 better be great this year...

 

[Blackleg-sanji1]

It bothers me deeply that 3 games announced in 2014 I know so lil about. And one of them is cancelled/not cancelled.

Scalebound has had only two showings both left me alil flat, the first just looked really rough and the second just wasn't a good boss fight to me not one I would expect from platinum at least.

Crackdown we've seen what twice? Maybe three times. First time was some developer video with snippets of early gameplay,beta was delayed, haven't seen any campaign.

Phantom dust..sigh

And Microsoft haven't given me any reason to believe these games are close to release. Touting around Scorpio which leads me to be believe the former 2 will be showcased for the system.

Sea of thieves- marketing has been really weird,a bit to conservative and secretive but I'm not worried about that game too much.

Cuphead- has taken forever most inpart to them expanding it so I just hope the platformer parts they've added are good.

Forza 7(might as well list it)- it'll be Forza might skip it Horizon 3 is goaty I'll wait for 4

Just a shame. If we have to wait until e3 to find out what's going on with the Xbox one games wise that'll sting

Sorry for long post

 

[Nightengale]

In terms of announcements, MS has been good to mix things up so that there are announcements for stuff that's coming in 6 months, but in general nobody in this industry right now except Activision (not the Blizzard side) are truly prudent in short-announcement-cycles.

Off the top of my head, let's look at this gen's MS annoucement-to-release cycle for all post-launch games. The exact months may be off here or there, but in general I think they're all in the right buckets.

30-36 months:
Crackdown 3 (due to delay)
Scalebound (due to delay )
Quantum Break (due to delay)

18-24 months:
Sea of Thieves (due to delay)
Halo Wars 2 (due to delay)

14-18 months:
Halo 5: Guardians
Gears of War 4
Sunset Overdrive
Rise of the Tomb Raider
State of Decay 2
ReCore

7-13 months:
Ori & the Blind Forest
State of Decay: Year One

<6 months:
Forza Horizon 2
Forza Motorsport 6
Forza Horizon 3
Halo: MCC
Gears of War: Ultimate Edition
Rare Replay
Dead Rising 4

What the above tells me is:

a. MS would like to avoid another E3 2014 scenario where they clearly announced Scalebound, Crackdown 3 and Phantom Dust Remake wayyy too early. The trend from E3 2015/16 shows that they're definitely less trigger happy in terms of announcements for games that are barely in development.

b. MS likes to keep one or two cards for "and it's out THIS YEAR", but they're largely Forza and potential remaster/remake kind of announcements. Dead Rising 4 wasn't one, but it seems to be an outlier from their 3rd-party deals more than anything else. So it's fair to keep "and it's out this year" announcements to stuff like Forza 7 or a Halo 3 Anniversary kind of stuff. Maybe new Battletoads, etc too.

c. MS has a preference for big titles to get the 14-18 month cycle of "announce this E3, to release by next fall" as seen by Halo 5, Sunset Overdrive and Gears 4. And had not for delays, Halo Wars 2 and Sea of Thieves as well. The only reason that the 18-24 months category is there was due to delays, but if not, then MS loves to have stuff announced in the current year ready the following year post- E3.

 

[HeisenbergWW62]

Well that would mean only two exclusives in 2018 which would be a big step down from this years eight and last years 6. They have to be announcing their 2018 lineup, we know of two Halo and Forza. Which means based on their usual number of exclusives we are looking at four to six game announcements which would predominantly have to be new ip as i can't think of any sequels.

I could see State of Decay 2 falling into 2018, then Halo/Forza+2 new IP's. 5 games in 2018 sounds good

 

[Bgamer90]

Some people prefer to hear about games that are two+ years away and some prefer a shorter reveal to release turnaround. I am definitely in the latter's camp.

I'm the same way but there are examples of this from all three major companies. I will say though that MS sides more with shorter turnarounds between reveal and release out of the major three companies but not to the point in which it's night/day.

Personally I don't want to see fake trailers for games that aren't ready to be shown just for the purpose of building hype. Especially if the final game won't be representative of that due to the game being in very early stages during the time in which the trailer is made. I don't see who that really benefits in the long run.

I find it funny how some apparently want to see trailers for games that are 2+ years away but yet at the same time hate when early trailers aren't representative of the final game. Seems a bit hypocritical.

 

[JlNX]

I could see State of Decay 2 falling into 2018, then Halo/Forza+2 new IP's. 5 games in 2018 sounds good

They said there going to announce the release date at e3, so i don't know if it will be a short announcement to release kind of deal or if it will launch in Q1 2018 to take the place of quantum break or halo wars as a early year release. It would be smart for that kind of game. I would guess we also see a killer instinct sequel announcement for 2018 given that Iron galaxy has heavily ramped down.

 

[PanicFreak]

There are a ton of talented industry veterans over at 343i. It would be a shame if they were stuck on Halo forever.

I think it would be a shame for Microsoft if those industry veterans left because they wanted to work on things other than Halo.

 

[HeisenbergWW62]

They said there going to announce the release date at e3, so i don't know if it will be a short announcement to release kind of deal or if it will launch in Q1 2018 to take the place of quantum break or halo wars as a early year release. It would be smart for that kind of game. I would guess we also see a killer instinct sequel announcement for 2018 given that Iron galaxy has heavily ramped down.

I think Q1 2018 would be a perfect time for it. I never played the first one, but based on what I know about it and 2 I feel like it could be a sleeper hit, but releasing it in the crowed fall likely will kill the chances of that. And right I didn't think about Killer Instinct. So 2018 for them could realistically be
Halo 6
Forza 7
Killer Instict
State of Decay 2
One or two new IP's

 

[Nightengale]

I'm the same way but there are examples of this from all three major companies. I will say though that MS sides more with shorter turnarounds between reveal and release out of the major three companies but not to the point in which it's night/day.

I like how Bethesda gets so much credit for Fallout 4 even though that is the only game out of every other major AAA announcements from them in the past 2 E3s that actually got the "6 months" treatment.

/snark

 

[Bgamer90]

MS could have went in during Sony's PS3 missteps. Coming off the absolutely dominant PS2 into Sony's most vulnerable position since entering the market, MS was in shape to bulk up for the future. Instead, they rested on their laurels and have nothing to show for what they did during last generation. They should have got some studios and started expanding their mentalities.

They really didn't rest. They had multiple titles for Kinect after 2010 that simply didn't review well and/or sell well. MS still having great third party support as well as Forza/Gears/Halo is what made the 360's sales still great during that period though -- the various 360 exclusives that were for Kinect that didn't do well didn't really hurt the system because of this.

Of course, I always go back to will and intent and passion. MS just isn't in this for the exact same reasons as Sony and Nintendo.

On top of this, the Xbox brand hasn't been around for as long as Sony and Nintendo so I don't really think it should be surprising that MS doesn't have as much AAA first party console exclusive content as Nintendo and PlayStation.

Both the Nintendo and PlayStation brands are still benefitting from game series that were around years before the original Xbox was released... especially Nintendo.

 

[digoutyoursoul]

I think it would be a shame for Microsoft if those industry veterans left because they wanted to work on things other than Halo.

Isn't that the reason Bungie no longer has the relationship they once had with MS?

 

[Bgamer90]

I like how Bethesda gets so much credit for Fallout 4 even though that is the only game out of every other major AAA announcements from them in the past 2 E3s that actually got the "6 months" treatment.

/snark

Haha -- yeah I kind of noticed how some people have stated that Fallout 4 started the trend when yet there were multiple examples of this before that game was even announced.

I do think we'll see this method more due to Fallout 4 no doubt but this method definitely isn't anything new.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

They really didn't rest. They had multiple titles for Kinect after 2010 that simply didn't review well and/or sell well. MS still having great third party support as well as Forza/Gears/Halo is what made the 360's sales still great during that period though -- the various 360 exclusives that were for Kinect that didn't do well didn't really hurt the system because of this.

I was referring to more long term efforts.

 

[Nightengale]

Haha -- yeah I kind of noticed how some people have stated that Fallout 4 started the trend when yet there were multiple examples of this before that game was even announced.

I do think we'll see this method more due to Fallout 4 no doubt but this method definitely isn't anything new.

To be fair to Fallout 4, most of the other examples are annual franchises like CoD, Forza or AssCreed where it makes zero sense to announce them early.

Nobody's really learning the lessons from Fallout 4 very well yet though. Part of Fallout 4's success with the short marketing cycle is that people were already ridiculously hyped for it before it ever officially existed. Figuring out how to drum that pre-announcement excitement is something most games won't be able to do.

 

[JlNX]

I know it would probably be impossible but is there anyway to figure out what second party contracts Ms could have for new ip. I'm guessing going by size of different independent studios would be the first step and going down the list to find what they are all working on.
If I had to guess Ms would probably work with a studio that does a lot of outsourcing for them. I would bet on Certain affinity, Saber interactive, Iron galaxy and maybe skybox on Rise of nations

 

[krang]

I think the best strategy for Microsoft going forward is to expanded the size of 343, Coalition, Rare. Expanded Studios to allow for a two team development cycle per studio like what there Rumoured to be doing with Rare. 343 works on a new ip, coalition works on shangheist. If the ip’s work out in the near future gears or halo is dropped and that team heads up the next new ip. It becomes a cycle that is less risky than a new studio. If one team fails the other picks up the slack.

I don't think this is a bad idea. Always have Gears and Halo in development, but make that not the only thing the studio is working on, and let staff rotate to keep them interested.

 

[Xando]

Reading the OP makes me incredibly salty again because they cancelled shanghai and made the coalition a gears factory

 

[Nightengale]

I know it would probably be impossible but is there anyway to figure out what second party contracts Ms could have for new ip. I'm guessing going by size of different independent studios would be the first step and going down the list find what they are all working on.
If I had two guess Ms would probably work with a studio that does a lot of outsourcing for them. I would bet on Certain affinity, Saber interactive, Iron galaxy and maybe skybox on Rise of nations

One unproductive way of doing it is to look at job listings for every independent developer MS has ever worked with ( or has potential to develop for MS ) and look whether or not there's a hint that the project they're hiring for is exclusive/etc. Sometimes they'll just list it as current-gen.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I know it would probably be impossible but is there anyway to figure out what second party contracts Ms could have for new ip. I'm guessing going by size of different independent studios would be the first step and going down the list to find what they are all working on.
If I had to guess Ms would probably work with a studio that does a lot of outsourcing for them. I would bet on Certain affinity, Saber interactive, Iron galaxy and maybe skybox on Rise of nations

This post eliminates unlikely partnerships.

As you said, it is difficult because MS could start working with a developer out of left field like with some of the devs in the link above.

 

[Com_Raven]

So Decisive Games is officially dead? Shame if so, as their AAA big IP eye game they were hiring for (so Age or Rise of Nations) had me excited

 

[Chobel]

Wasn't there a rumor that 343 was working ok a new IP?

That says the game was canceled on the last greenlit meeting, meaning it was a project which still had a high cancellation chance. What killed them was that besides that project they weren't be able to strike deals with any other publisher for a while.

lol

 

[Hoo-doo]

Reading the OP makes me incredibly salty again because they cancelled shanghai and made the coalition a gears factory

You and me both. Shangheist gave me Rainbow Six:Vegas vibes, which was great.

Gears on the other hand bores me to death.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

Sony deserves a lot of credit gaining third party relations, something Nintendo never cultured. Sony has also invested a lot on their own studios and new ip's over the years. On the contrary it appears Microsoft is content on hiring contractors to do most of the heavy lifting for them and relying way too much on a few franchises to carry them from generation to generation.

Nintendo has focused too much on using it's 1st party studios to sell the hardware, Microsoft is quite the oppositie, while Sony is riding the highs of being somewhat in the middle.

 

[JlNX]

Banjo another studio that should be added to the list is Microsoft studios, in a recent interview Shannon Loftis said Microsoft studios has a team of 90 developers.

I don't think decisive being dissolved rules out a new Rise of nations or AOE, Skybox seems to be doing well with AOE expansions. They could take up reins of one of the ip's.

 

[Nightengale]

lol

http://www.gamesradar.com/343-has-started-halo-6-and-knows-whats-going-happen-ten-years-now/

343i already has a 10 year roadmap for Halo planned.