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Microsoft told digital foundry that the Series X is their mid-gen refresh (DF direct Weekly #116)
jasondefaoite
Member
Mr.Phoenix
Member
I'll just come out and say it... this is why I don't trust MS.
Simply put, that is just not how mid-gen refreshes work. By the very virtue of its naming... a mid-gen refresh, is/are new machines made in the middle of the gen. Eg. a PS4 slim and/or a PS4pro.
You are basically taking advancements in fab process nodes to technically make a console on the new node at the launch price of your current console (which would mean you end up with something more powerful) or at a lower price (and as such smaller) by keeping the spec identical to your launch console.
That this is even a conversation or needs to be said, is the exact kinda PR obfuscation that MS seems to be masters at doing. They say things that could only mean they sincerely believe everyone is stupid. like there is NO other explanation.
For Sony or anyone to make a mid-gen refresh, is simply the answer to the question... So, the PS5 cost us $450 to make in 2020. What, in 2024, would a $450 console that would retail for $500 be? Or can we make a $550 console and sell it for $600? And an answer to, in 2023/2024, the OG PS5 on the new node now costs us only $280 to make. And we can make the chassis smaller. lets release a smaller console and lower the price.
We have MS to thank as to why something so simple and obvious needs to be said.
Sorry to break it to you.. but that is already happening even with the current-gen consoles.
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Exactly, if anybody believes that higher powered consoles are used as a crutch for bad development practices then they must already see the Series X as a crutch anyway.
Rykan
Member
There is not a single PC gamer out there that is waiting for a "PS5 Pro" model before jumping over to consoles. Either they're interested in a console or they are not, but the existence of a "pro" model has no impact on that.
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I don't have an issue with discussing the technical points DF make.
But I don't see what John's quote adds over and above what was originally claimed in their original analysis (https://www.eurogamer.net/digitalfoundry-2020-xbox-series-s-big-interview). Unless we take John as literally saying that a mid-gen refresh would have been exactly the same as the current Series X, which is a ridiculously strong claim.
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Stare-Bear
Banned
So it’s safe to assume the next gen Xbox is just a cheap streaming box?
GHG
Gold Member
Their original analysis (both written and in their videos) stipulated that the notion of the Series S being the "regular" console and the X being the "refresh" was how they were interpreting things at the time, nothing more - as in:
The series S = "the one S replacement"
The Series X = "the one X replacement"
What has now been said in the latest video in the OP is that the latest quotes are what Microsoft have told them.
Two very different things. One stipulates journalistic speculation whereas the latest is not open for interpretation, it's straight from the horses mouth.
And that's not even going into the fact that they are clearly under instruction from Microsoft to only say things a certain way dependant on timing. Why is it suddenly fine for them to say "this is what Microsoft told us" now, whereas before they were only allowed to sugar coat it under the guise of "this is what we think"?
So yes, like it or not, it does indeed warrant a fresh discussion, especially considering where we are in the generation and the fact that once again 30fps is being seen on these consoles more and more. Instead of poor attempts at handwaving and damage control you should ask yourself if this is a wise strategy should microsoft still see things this way.
As for not having a problem with discussing the things they say on the technical side of things, you absolutely should when they turn out to be bogus.
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PeteBull
Member
Phil saying what he is supposed to say, guys, look at it from logical standpoint, if we get any hard leaks(so not randos pulling bs outa their asses in speculative vids, but actual legit leaks )or even official confirmation of mid-gen refresh consoles- current consoles sales will get worse.
Soonest ps5pr0 launches is holiday 2024, maybe even in 2025 sometime- all depends on when tsmc manages to provide console manufactures with reliable 3nm process for their chips/apu's and ofc it will be hard competition for those 3nm wafers vs phones(apple/samsung) and nvidia/amd (altho amd usually doesnt take much for their gpu's, currently their marketshare isnt even 10% of gpu market on pc).
Lets look at the facts- ps4pr0 official annoucement happened early september 2016, launch happened barely 3 months after that, for the very reason to not canibalise their own -base console- sales.
TLDR lets not panic and wait patiently at least till middle of 2024 for some legit leaks, if nothing happens by then (aka info from the devs about ps5pr0/xbox series y devkits)we can assume nothing comes in 2024.
Soonest ps5pr0 launches is holiday 2024, maybe even in 2025 sometime- all depends on when tsmc manages to provide console manufactures with reliable 3nm process for their chips/apu's and ofc it will be hard competition for those 3nm wafers vs phones(apple/samsung) and nvidia/amd (altho amd usually doesnt take much for their gpu's, currently their marketshare isnt even 10% of gpu market on pc).
Lets look at the facts- ps4pr0 official annoucement happened early september 2016, launch happened barely 3 months after that, for the very reason to not canibalise their own -base console- sales.
TLDR lets not panic and wait patiently at least till middle of 2024 for some legit leaks, if nothing happens by then (aka info from the devs about ps5pr0/xbox series y devkits)we can assume nothing comes in 2024.
KungFucius
King Snowflake
Yes. And many are still saying it. By It I mean no mid gen refresh because there is no mid gen shift in TV technology like there was last gen that made the mid gen refresh strategy worth it. They might be able to tout FPS gains but that puts them in the position of having to shit on their own launch system which risks ticking off early adopters.
What fraction of last gen gamers upgraded? What fraction of them would do so again? How many people bought a second console when the upgrade came out. MS and Sony have some idea about this and know whether it is worth designing an upgraded system and needing to develop games to target additional skus.
Physiognomonics
Member
What's ironic is that the ecosystem currently needing a Pro model should be Xbox (with redfall and Starfield only running at 30fps) while all Sony exclusives already run (or are going to run) at 60fps (often with RT on top) and they still are going to supposedly put out a Pro model.
But here DF are so transparently becoming Microsoft PR mouthpieces. My guess is they haven't heard anything about any mid-gen consoles from MS so they have to stick for now to the Phil Spencer script.
But here DF are so transparently becoming Microsoft PR mouthpieces. My guess is they haven't heard anything about any mid-gen consoles from MS so they have to stick for now to the Phil Spencer script.
Horseganador
Member
Would the developers be "happy" to program for a 4 - 12 - ¿24? machine tflops xDD Even so, what Spencer says matters little, he also said that they were not going to make a mid-gen console a few years ago and then he announced project scorpio.
Imagine developing a console between 2013-2020...then thinking from a tech standpoint its a mid gen refresh equivalent....at the start of the generation.
Nevermind there have been improvements to both RDNA and Zen since 2020.
Just thinking about the Baldur's Gate 3 drama, some of us at the start of this gen said games on Series consoles have to factor in the Series S when developing games. But this is a decision MS made, so they have to deal with the cons of a mid gen refresh at the start of the generation.
Nevermind there have been improvements to both RDNA and Zen since 2020.
Just thinking about the Baldur's Gate 3 drama, some of us at the start of this gen said games on Series consoles have to factor in the Series S when developing games. But this is a decision MS made, so they have to deal with the cons of a mid gen refresh at the start of the generation.
foamdino
Member
Series S being the actual "real next-gen console" with the X being the mid-gen refresh now makes perfect sense with respect to all the "easy to dev games as they scale" - yeah they scale up much more easily than scaling down. At the reveal everyone thought the scaling discussion was around taking a game designed for a 12TF machine and scaling it *down*. However taking a game designed around a 4TF machine and scaling it up is actually trivial. You build something that scrapes 30fps on the S and then turn on all the bells and whistles for the X.
Essentially they were gaslighting about the X being the main machine and the S being the baby machine - it was the opposite way round and everything now makes sense.
It also makes sense as to why 3rd-party games seem to run fine on the PS5 - they were designed/scoped to run on the S, so of course the PS5 has no problem running them.
Essentially they were gaslighting about the X being the main machine and the S being the baby machine - it was the opposite way round and everything now makes sense.
It also makes sense as to why 3rd-party games seem to run fine on the PS5 - they were designed/scoped to run on the S, so of course the PS5 has no problem running them.
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foamdino
Member
I have no idea what MS were thinking - I too said that the S was going to be a bottleneck all gen. Now why do so many Japanese devs decide to skip the series X - perhaps because they really are trying to squeeze their games onto the S and it's just simpler to say "it works fine on PS5 and we don't want to deal with the extra hassle with working out where/how to cut to get it to fit in the ram on the S"
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Especially when Japanese games do not even sell well on Xbox.
I think that'd be the deciding factor. If Xbox sales were, say, 2x the sales on PlayStation, devs would stick with Series S because at least their games would sell the most on Xbox. Now all this extra work may seem useless because the games wouldn't even sell that much.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Here's the difference in context and nuance in this argument.
One side created FUD and spewed a new FUD narrative about the other brand 24/7 for months and months, and almost years after these consoles launched. Until the PS5 checked all the FUD off the list one by one. And copium set in with face-offs.
The other side created hype for their favorite toy about specific features and specs. There was not a FUD machine campaign launched like they were getting marching orders from their discords, which they were by select "influencers" and the like.
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DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Probably explains why they started to drop "we love the PC" PR nuggets recently? If they don't have a mid-gen, they will lean hard into PC marketing as the "power" wild card. Until they come out with a new system.
I mean, they use PC versions in their adverts now for the "Xbox brand." Sneaky, sneaky.
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TheTony316
Member
Wait what? The Series S is the base console and the Series X is the mid-gen refresh?
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DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Starting to get shades of "brute force" with said argument.
Amazing a channel that relies on analyzing tech between different devices, now is on the "we don't need a PS5Pwo" angle. I wonder why that is?
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analog_future
Resident Crybaby
Just make a $1000 console. I'm ready. I want the power of a high end PC and the convenience of a console combined into one.
Zathalus
Member
You should go work for the CCP, revisionist history is apparently your thing.
"hype for their favorite toy about specific features and specs", can't believe you typed that with a straight face. Guess that FUD campaign about Xbox Series X overheating issues were just hype about a toy. Or the weekly concern threads about Gamepass, and about how Xbox is closing shop soon. How about that "other" forum that was created? Is it just full of people so gosh darn excited about the PS5?
Pretending one side is better then the other doesn't really work when you can easily dig up Twitter and YouTube idiots for either side saying the dumbest things. For every ColtEastwood you have a Dreamcast guy.
Thirty7ven
Banned
Specially when the main opponent is a PC bro who busts a nut every time a new GPU is released on the market, which happens every two years or something?
Just insane shit all around coming from DF. They are already touting Spencer's narrative of "you want an upgrade, get a PC" even though they were jizzing all over the place with the Xbox One X.
Also love how they like to pick up known info about Playstation sales and try to extrapolate 1:1 for Xbox, conveniently forgetting every factor that doesn't suit the narrative.
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DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Retard.
Tiny instances pale compared to the other direction. You had well established sites like DF pushing the FUD.
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SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
You are reading too much into this. This was just PR by MS back at the reveal. Nothing more than that.
Zathalus
Member
Man, guess the truth is a bit triggering? Feel free to post another gif though, always good for a laugh.
Retard.
They haven't exactly been keeping thier scepticism about Pro consoles a secret. Or even the fact that about the Series X acting as a mid-gen refresh They even have an article about it from over a year ago:
Do we actually need PS5 Pro or Xbox enhanced consoles this generation?
Digital Foundry on the harsh realities facing console manufacturers - and gamers.
www.eurogamer.net
Here is another video with John being sceptical:
Painting a narrative that DF are reacting to Microsoft's statements has no basis in reality.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Why are his shades too small for his head?
Thirty7ven
Banned
They haven't exactly been keeping thier scepticism about Pro consoles a secret. Or even the fact that about the Series X acting as a mid-gen refresh They even have an article about it from over a year ago:
Do we actually need PS5 Pro or Xbox enhanced consoles this generation?
Digital Foundry on the harsh realities facing console manufacturers - and gamers.
Here is another video with John being sceptical:
Painting a narrative that DF are reacting to Microsoft's statements has no basis in reality.
Right right.
You know what's funny though? Sony managed to cost reduce the PS5 already, and managed to ship what, over twice as many PS5s? And we all know what DF thought about the hardware on PS5 vs Xbox Series, so you know DF running their mouth about what is or isn't regarding Playstation is just bird shit.
Maybe they should focus on what is or isn't, what can or can't about Xbox and leave Playstation HW talk to people who know about hardware, because you know Sony is an hardware company last time I checked. Which means its no surprise MS is stuck with a big ass die, split memory, expensive cooling and a bitch of a problem regarding cost reduction.
MarkMe2525
Member
You are right that my timeline is wrong. I was not attempting to attribute "all" of it to the chip shortage, but was riffing on what factors could have potentially changed (if anything at all) for MS regarding the production of a Pro console. Obviously because the chip shortage had not yet started at that point, it is not a factor.
We know MS was not optimistic about costs reductions of components, I'm curious to if we have any data that would suggest that has changed.
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HTK
Banned
Sony should still come out with a Pro regardless what Microsoft does, if their original reason for releasing a Pro is still a thing. And that's losing PlayStation players to PC because they want more powerful hardware.
I think Sony can make the PS5 a $399 console with the optical accessory being either $50 or $100. PS5 Pro could be $499 or $599 and despite DF talking about it's not needed, I disagree for power users it's needed. Most 120hz games can't hold a solid 120hz and the graphics are downgraded quite a bit.
I think Sony can make the PS5 a $399 console with the optical accessory being either $50 or $100. PS5 Pro could be $499 or $599 and despite DF talking about it's not needed, I disagree for power users it's needed. Most 120hz games can't hold a solid 120hz and the graphics are downgraded quite a bit.
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DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Thirty7ven
Banned
Doubt because they want people to invest in the PlayStation ecosystem first and foremost.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Yeah, that crossed my mind as well. I hope there indeed is a Pro. Day 1.
HTK
Banned
Yeah 2-3 years is a long ass time plus most of these folks probably want to remain on a console and Sony want them to stay in their ecosystem rather than revenue share with Valve. I don't know what the % split is, but they can't go wrong by offering that Pro option even if its for 10% or 20% of the population, they can earn more per-consoles and dev's don't need to do anything crazy but take advantage of the hardware.
Drizzlehell
Banned
Good. The idea of a mid-gen refresh was a rip-off anyway. We shouldn't expect it to become a standard. Just let the entire generation run its course like it used to.
Zathalus
Member
The major reason for cost reduction is the better designed cooler, cheaper component cost and the move to 6nm. Everything Microsoft is fully capable of doing. Who knows why they haven't, maybe they feel no pressing need.
The Xbox die is only 16% larger then the PS5. Split memory has little impact on cost, the cooling is both more expensive (vapor chamber) and less expensive (no liquid metal). It has cheaper storage as well. Moving to 6nm means they can likely do away with the vapor chamber, but they haven't decided to do so.
As for Richards analysis, he is mostly spot on. How much power can you realistically squeeze out of RDNA on 4/5 mm? Double is basically your best bet and that will require upping both the cooling and power budget. Maybe more if they wait for 3nm but that is far more expensive and only likely widely available in 2025.
Personally I've always hoped for a PS5 Pro but with the issues around 3nm it seems more unlikely these days. Especially with how utterly lackluster RDNA3 was.
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DeepEnigma
Gold Member
How is something optional, a rip off?
Especially when the Pro was the same price as the launch base model.
Drizzlehell
Banned
Because rolling out a console that's just a faster version of the last one is cheaper and they can charge people twice during one generation.
Thirty7ven
Banned
You mean they can give more to those who want more and are willing to pay more? Or pay again?
Oh no, oh no, what a rip off. Not to mention it isn’t even entirely true, perfectly reasonable to consider that people buying a PS5 Pro might not have a PS5 base model.
PS4 didn’t suffer because the PS4 pro exists. It’s a non problem turned problem just because Xbox PR said so and so.
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Stuart360
Member
Phil confirmed in an interview about a year ago that they 'have multiple consoles in development'. I will be very surprised if one of them isnt a mid gen refresh.
I'm guessing that they just dont want Sony to know, although with the way businesses work with this stuff, Sony will already know.
I'm guessing that they just dont want Sony to know, although with the way businesses work with this stuff, Sony will already know.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Does the same apply to graphics cards on the PC?
These companies know more about what each other are doing than we do.
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Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
But that'll be a mid-mid-gen refresh
On a serious note, I think the bigger challenge for Xbox will be the price point if they decide to do a "real" mid-gen refresh:
- XSS is $299.
- XSS Black 1 TB is now $349.
- XSX is $499.
On the other hand, Sony is being really smart about it.
They are doing a PS5 Digital Slim with an optional attachable disc drive. If they can sell it at the same price, $399, they can easily price its Pro version at $550 (even if the Disc-less version is $450).
At that point, they'd have abandoned producing its $499 variant. In that case, they can even do the Pro at $499. That's a huge price advantage.
Stuart360
Member
Oh i know, thats what i meant. Watched and read a lot of stuff on how big business works, and the shady stuff that goes on, especially when it involves work and componants being provided by third parties.
They will both know pretty much what each other have.
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DeepEnigma
Gold Member
But that'll be a mid-mid-gen refresh
On a serious note, I think the bigger challenge for Xbox will be the price point if they decide to do a "real" mid-gen refresh:
Phil Spencer confirmed that Microsoft takes up to $200 loss per console unit sold. And Phil also hinted that a console price increase might come soon. If XSX does increase to $550, how much are they going to charge for an XSX Pro? $650 or $700? That's PS3-level insane.
- XSS is $299.
- XSS Black 1 TB is now $349.
- XSX is $499.
On the other hand, Sony is being really smart about it.
They are doing a PS5 Digital Slim with an optional attachable disc drive. If they can sell it at the same price, $399, they can easily price its Pro version at $550 (even if the Disc-less version is $450).
At that point, they'd have abandoned producing its $499 variant. In that case, they can even do the Pro at $499. That's a huge price advantage.
- XSS Black 1 TB is now $349.