CajoleJuice
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You get nervous way too easily
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MLB 2010 Thread of Beret-Wearing Hippies Can Get the Frappé Out
- Thread starter evil solrac v3.0
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captmcblack
Member
He's going to get out of this unscathed.
But yeah, better to have one of these saves here than when real teams are being played.
But yeah, better to have one of these saves here than when real teams are being played.
MLBTV just got a lot more useful to me. This is some hot shit.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/22/technology/22sony.html?hp
If I can stream all of MLBTV HD features on PS3 that would be awesome. I'll order it this week.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/22/technology/22sony.html?hp
If I can stream all of MLBTV HD features on PS3 that would be awesome. I'll order it this week.
captmcblack
Member
I told you.
CajoleJuice
Member
You play in roto leagues, obviously. Those have an innings limit for the season.sangreal said:
What he's playing in has to be a custom H2H league.
And see, Kev?
CajoleJuice
Member
Y2Kev said:
I suggest none of you start Santana or Peavy tomorrow if you have them in your fantasy leagues.
weekend_warrior
Banned
Not a pristine outing by Mo, but like clockwork he still gets the save.
CajoleJuice
Member
Yeah, no problem. It can be confusing. Last year was the first time I did roto and I didn't know about the innings limit until after the draft. But it turned out as well as I could have possibly hoped, haha.sangreal said:
Oh, H2H = head-to-head and means you have weekly matchups against the other teams in the league. What you're in (roto) compiles the stats from the entire season and ranks the teams in each category.
evil solrac v3.0
Member
fucking baseball tonight.
CajoleJuice
Member
Lambtron said:
The Frankman
Banned
TURNCOAT!!CajoleJuice said:
I suggest none of you start Santana or Peavy tomorrow if you have them in your fantasy leagues.
CajoleJuice
Member
Hey, I'm starting him! But it seems whenever I start someone in my roto league. it's a disaster. See Lester's start.The Frankman said:
Johan is the one person who has bucked the trend, though.
evil solrac v3.0
Member
The Frankman said:
well... no, you know what? i got nothing. freaking losers.
Wellington
BAAAALLLINNN'
Thanks a lot Phil Hughes, now I feel like shit at work. :|
Square Triangle
Member
Doytch said:
Here is a screenshot of the user interface. looks nice, hopefully it runs smooth! I need to get my Halos baseball in!
http://news.cnet.com/8301-31001_3-20003130-261.html
talisayNon
Member
RAB is speculation Hughes had some late cut on his fastball Mo style. i nut if true.
Guileless
Temp Banned for Remedial Purposes
Yesterday afternoon I offered a guy 1:3 on Halladay not having a CG shutout. Meaning he risks 3 and wins 1 if anything else happens other than a CG shutout. If Halladay lasts 8 2/3 or gives up 1 unearned run, he still wins the bet. And he wouldn't take it! Fucking Braves.
Lambtron said:
I feel bad for you on this one.. as a massive Twins fan who moved down south last year I am giddy at this announcement.
Oh and for those wondering.. they have a video showing off the MLB.tv on PS3 here
http://news.cnet.com/8301-31001_3-20003130-261.html
Code:
Ryan Madson: number of holds after k innings / # IP
Start Innings pitched by reliever when player was removed
Inning 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 holds
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
9th+ 0 0
8th 46 3 49
7th 17 15 0 32
6th 3 6 4 0 13
5th 0 0 0 0 0 0
4th 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3rd 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2nd 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1st 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
total 66 24 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 94
2003: 0
2004: 7
2005: 32
2006: 6
2007: 7
2008: 18
2009: 26
Total: 96I'm missing like two holds... anyway, factoring in the data from my other post (which you should read eznerk),
P(blown save within 1.0 IP | potential save ^ started in 6th inning) = 2 / 15 ~= 0.1333
P(blown save within 1.0 IP | potential save ^ started in 7th inning) = 8 / 41 ~= 0.1951
P(blown save within 1.0 IP | potential save ^ started in 8th inning) = 5 / 56 ~= 0.08929
P(blown save within 1.0 IP | potential save ^ started in 9th inning) = 4 / 16 ~= 0.2500
_________________________________________________________
P(blown save within 1.0 IP | potential save ^ started outside 9th inning) = 15 / 112 ~= 0.1339
P(blown save within 1.0 IP | potential save ^ potential SVO) = 19 / 97 ~= .1959
I bolded these two factors because it's interesting... while he pitches slightly worse than league average during a 1-inning save situation in the 9th, he pitches SIGNIFICANTLY better than league average in his first inning outside the ninth. His overall career not-blown-save ratio in 1.0 IP of 0.1959 is also much closer to (and in fact below) the expected blown% of .2622 for a league-average pitcher.
So, what do I conclude from all this? I was selling Madson short; he's a better than league-aveage pitcher. He's definitely still affected by save situations, though--I don't really feel like calculating it out, but when you include all the holds you actually have a fairly sizeable sample and his 9th-inning / not-9th inning splits suggest that he is nearly twice as likely to hold outside the ninth inning as he is to hold in the ninth inning. And the fact that he has held literally every single time he's gotten past his first inning without blowing a save is absolutely absurd. Is Madson a "stuff" pitcher who can't be touched when he's on fire and is extremely hittable when he doesn't "have it"?
Anyway, I think I'm done for a while on save-hold analysis, but it's safe to say that (1) Madson is actually a pretty good reliever, and (2) he regresses to league-average play when it comes to closing games in the ninth. The real question is whether a team like Philly can afford to have a merely average pitcher close out their games, considering that a league-average pitcher gives up about a run every two innings on average.
captmcblack
Member
talisayNon said:
Are you/those graphs suggesting that Hughes learned Mo's cutter?
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