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[CrayzeeCarl]

This is from their Retail Partners though. And let's not act like 7000 retail stores would open at Midnight if they didn't anticipate demand.

Retailers have midnight launches for individual video games all the time. Often times with as little as 10-20 preorders. I don't think that can be used to justify a claim that this will be bigger than PS3, 360, Wii. :/

 

[Mr.Green]

New thread ?

Twice the hate! :lol

 

[V_Ben]

Seems it's lucky I pre-ordered here in the UK!

http://www.next-gen.biz/news/no-kinect-supply-in-uk-at-launch

If people want it over Christmas, and they haven't pre-ordered it, they're buggered? Oh, well done.

 

[poppabk]

My local Game store said if it wasn't pre-ordered (£10 returnable deposit) by the end of September, there was no chance of getting one before Christmas.

Now before you all say 'well they would say that', I know the guy fairly well. He (like that story) said Microsoft have not given them any indication of what allocation they will get.

If he has no idea of what allocation they are going to get how does he know that you will need to preorder by the end of september to have a chance to get one by december?

 

[Kafel]

Justin Beiber Kinect bundle tv spot shall make this the most successful launch of ALL TIME.

: ( and I find it even sadder that it comes from Salieri's mouth.

 

[snap0212]

My local Game store said if it wasn't pre-ordered (£10 returnable deposit) by the end of September, there was no chance of getting one before Christmas.

Now before you all say 'well they would say that', I know the guy fairly well. He (like that story) said Microsoft have not given them any indication of what allocation they will get.

This doesn't make any sense. They don't even know how many they'll get, but they know that you won't get one if you don't pre-order soon enough?

X (Numer of units a retailer gets) - # of pre-orders = What's left for those who didn't pre-order

You cannot know that the "What's left" number will be negative if you don't know the first part of the equation. It's impossible, even if you know the guy fairly well. Maybe he can tell you how many units they usually get, but without actual numbers everything he's saying is just a prediction and nothing more.

 

[Garjon]

It may well be, particularly if it reaches its 3 million worldwide target, not to mention the frightening advertising budget this thing has. Even so, it's just Microsoft going through the motions.

Seems it's lucky I pre-ordered here in the UK!

http://www.next-gen.biz/news/no-kinect-supply-in-uk-at-launch

Ah retailers do this all the time to influence pre-order sales. It allows them to judge the true day one demand for it.

 

[gofreak]

My local Game store said if it wasn't pre-ordered (£10 returnable deposit) by the end of September, there was no chance of getting one before Christmas.

Now before you all say 'well they would say that', I know the guy fairly well. He (like that story) said Microsoft have not given them any indication of what allocation they will get.

There's conflicting statements there. How do they know what availability will be like if they don't know what their allocation will be?

This sounds like fairly typical 'better safe than sorry!' pre-order driving.

FWIW, Game in their latest financials said that Kinect preorders were 'good', but they didn't seem to indicate that it was massive - indeed for both Kinect and Move they said it was less a short term opportunity, more a growth opportunity in the more medium term, which I took as a indication for their investors not to expect too much upfront from these.

 

[MirageDwarf]

Seems it's lucky I pre-ordered here in the UK!

http://www.next-gen.biz/news/no-kinect-supply-in-uk-at-launch

Lol...this is how MS wants to make it look like successful launch. Ship lot more less so everything is sold out.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Maybe he can tell you how many units they usually get, but without actual numbers everything he's saying is just a prediction and nothing more.

True, it was more cautionary if anything but he has a point if they only get less than 50 units.

 

[Atomski]

Lol...this is how MS wants to make it look like successful launch. Ship lot more less so everything is sold out.

Yet that doesn't work with the "we are going to sell 3 million this year" talk. Why would they talk big like that then restrict the amount to be sold? sounds like bs to me.

 

[a1m]

Care just enough to post that I don't care at all for Kinect.

 

[El-Suave]

They may have a nice launch, you don't spend that much money and don't get some results, but I can't see this as a long term success.
The games just aren't there, and I don't see a steady stream of software to support it.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Care just enough to post that I don't care at all for Kinect.

Thanks for sharing.

 

[Mr.Green]

Lol...this is how MS wants to make it look like successful launch. Ship lot more less so everything is sold out.

Pro tip: Beginning a post with a fucking "lol" could reveal a certain bias that might discredit your cold, well thought analysis.

 

[poppabk]

Yet that doesn't work with the "we are going to sell 3 million this year" talk. Why would they talk big like that then restrict the amount to be sold? sounds like bs to me.

I would imagine a lot of the 'shortage' talk is retailers trying to drive pre-order sales. If pre-orders are outstripping MS's 3 million mark then I will be very surprised.

 

[Megadragon15]

Care just enough to post that I don't care at all for Kinect.

Avatar seems surprisingly appropriate.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

It may well be, particularly if it reaches its 3 million worldwide target, not to mention the frightening advertising budget this thing has. Even so, it's just Microsoft going through the motions.


Ah retailers do this all the time to influence pre-order sales. It allows them to judge the true day one demand for it.

Quick question, how often have numerous retailers done this for a game that absolutely bombed?

 

[AndyD]

Maybe its been mentioned and I missed it. How do you guys propose units to be counted vs other devices?

I can see that Kinect can be tracked via the pack in game, but Move is not packed with anything, some people buy more than 1 and then there are the bundles which have a game, but that game is also sold separately so tracking that won't work.

So how do the companies plan to decide success if one household buys Kinect, but another buys say a Move bundle and an extra Move (to keep semi price parity)?

Its probably not units, as one HH buys 1, the other 2. Its not games, as both got one. And al the recently patched PS3 games for Move can totally skew the view. Its not money, as the spending was the same.

I think each company will say by their expectation, they did great. MS will likely troll Sony based on recent PR from them, but Sony won't go that route. What does GAF think?

 

[Opus Angelorum]

That's a fair question Sho_Nuff82, did anyone go into Game recently and receive a sales pitch for Quantum Theory?

I know it's not a fair comparison, however.

 

[Vinci]

That's a fair question Sho_Nuff82, did anyone go into Game recently and receive a sales pitch for Quantum Theory?

I know it's not a fair comparison, however.

MS is treating this as a new platform. So it's not too different from the launch of a new console. So yes, I think game retailers are going to treat it overwhelmingly different from how they handle games.

 

[Garjon]

Quick question, how often have numerous retailers done this for a game that absolutely bombed?

Kinect is not something that will absolutely bomb.

 

[Grampasso]

Tomorrow: Kinect will be bigger than Jesus.

November: Kinect compared to Dreamcast

 

[Firewire]

That's a fair question Sho_Nuff82, did anyone go into Game recently and receive a sales pitch for Quantum Theory?

I know it's not a fair comparison, however.

I was at my EB Games last week and I got a pitch for Kinect. I told the kid that I don't own a 360, the bugger then proceeds to tell me that its a great time to get one with Kinect for only $150. :lol

 

[Atomski]

Maybe its been mentioned and I missed it. How do you guys propose units to be counted vs other devices?

I can see that Kinect can be tracked via the pack in game, but Move is not packed with anything, some people buy more than 1 and then there are the bundles which have a game, but that game is also sold separately so tracking that won't work.

So how do the companies plan to decide success if one household buys Kinect, but another buys say a Move bundle and an extra Move (to keep semi price parity)?

Its probably not units, as one HH buys 1, the other 2. Its not games, as both got one. And al the recently patched PS3 games for Move can totally skew the view. Its not money, as the spending was the same.

I think each company will say by their expectation, they did great. MS will likely troll Sony based on recent PR from them, but Sony won't go that route. What does GAF think?

At the end of the day it all about the $$. Which I am not sure about. If you buy a Move bundle (camera, game and 1 move) then buy 2 offhand controllers and another Move. That is getting over the price of a Kinect. Where as you only need one Kinect per household.

Money wise it may get pretty close. But I still doubt Move sales.

 

[PSGames]

i dont know about that, i'd be willing to say it can be done on an eyetoy. I think you're using more of the technology to make it sound better then it is actually using.

Can you honestly not see the difference between this and eyetoy? Notice how it seperates the player from the background? Check out the green and orange lines. That is full skeletal tracking in 3d. Far more advanced than anything eyetoy.

 

[dragonfart28]

If Kinect is not a smash hit after all this hype, MS will get 24-pc bucket of kentucky fried crow.

 

[Clear]

Big thing for me is, I don't see what Microsoft's endgame is for Kinect.

It seems to me that they aren't so confident in the future of the product that they are willing to part subsidize the cost of the hardware at launch (no way they aren't making a profit on each unit they sell) and the termination of their literal poster-child Milo suggests that there's a lot less commercially viable mileage in the tech than they first thought.

I mean seriously, if Lionhead with MS deep-pockets backing them couldn't create a launch title to support the system (after at least 2 years work)... how are smaller, less well funded devs supposed to push the envelope.

 

[DeadGzuz]

. That is full skeletal tracking in 3d. Far more advanced than anything eyetoy.

I hate to nitpick, but that is not full skeletal tracking in 3D. It is computing skeletal points from the 3D data it has (not "full" 3D, it is the surface facing the camera). The skeleton it computes can and will often be incorrect. The question is how often it affects gameplay (see the latest Eden hands on for example).

There has been twenty years of body tracking with RGB data. It may not work as well in poor conditions, but it can work well.

Ku-Fu Live (PSEye game, no Move) uses Freemotion to do this task.

http://www.virtualairguitar.com/technology/

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

 

[RedStep]

Quick question, how often have numerous retailers done this for a game that absolutely bombed?

Fuzion Frenzy 2, I believe.

 

[duk]

i get nervous when a company talks this much blah blah blah before launch... last time i heard this much hoopla was before ps3 launch

 

[Branduil]

It's nice to want things.

 

[Hazelhurst]

So if Microsoft thinks it will have more sales than the 360, where does it leave the people without a 360 to use Kinect to begin with.

If a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear, does it make a sound?

 

[distrbnce]

I'll buy Move but I'm honestly at a loss for this strategy.

Uh, seems like the strategy is "Make sure there are a LOT of ways this can be successful and useful"

Did you even bother applying your quandary to Kinect: Why release an optional controller that will have very few unique games made for it?

You mention also that Move controls will be tacked on... but then there's Children of Eden.

 

[iamaustrian]

If a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear, does it make a sound?

of course, it makes a sound

 

[dofry]

I'm eagerly awaiting Amirox's impression of the Kinect. Thread will be epic! :lol

Will it involve him trying to draw pictures of werewolf dongs using Kinect, shortly before dumping it in the toilet and taking a picture to show off at GAF?

No. I think it will involve him re-filming his famous 'Squeezing my balls' smash-hit-video, except this time He Is The Controller...^

 

[MrBelmontvedere]

what sales they do have will be to disappointed consumers. word of mouth will be bad, so the add-on won't have legs.

just a prediction, which is all ms is doing when they say "biggest launch evar!1"

really they couldn't say anything less, so just BS like mad and hope it turns out to be true.

btw, move won't be much different if at all.

 

[borghe]

Amazon shows instock for me..

move controller is sold out pretty damn near everywhere. What you are seeing on amazon is the bundle. the actual controller is showing 2-4 weeks shipping on amazon and sold out on gamestop as well. The thing is, like I mentioned earlier, savvy PS3 owners are buying the Move controller and a used PS Eye from Gamestop or ebay, or buying a bundle and an extra controller or two at worst.

That's kind of an interesting point here.. The perfect sale for Kinect is 1:1 with 360 consoles.. so what is the perfect sale for Move? 1:1? 2:1? etc?

In this respect I actually kind of agree with MS. This IS almost like a second console launch... however, unlike MS, I'm calling it like I see it. 32x. Not in terms of bomba, but really they are working to release an add on to extend the life of their 5 year old console for another couple of years. it could either work, or it could bomb.

my only concern is the universal mention of lag. we know the tracking works to some sort of degree, so it remains to be seen if the problems we see in the videos are software or system related. but with everyone mentioning lag. I mean I guess if you just become accustomed to dealing with it that's fine.. but it pretty much guarantees that fast reflex games will pretty much never exist on the system if that's the case..

Can you honestly not see the difference between this and eyetoy? Notice how it seperates the player from the background? Check out the green and orange lines. That is full skeletal tracking in 3d. Far more advanced than anything eyetoy.

correct me if I'm wrong, but what you are actually seeing in that footage is processed information from images captured from the two cameras, right? as far as I understand it, the actual camera has no motion processing hardware in it whatsoever. in that respect, and I don't mean this mockingly, it's not "much different" than eye toy. The camera tech is a bit more sophisticated, what with two cameras one of which working in the IR frequency, but in the end the real power of kinect comes from the 360 processing the image data from both cameras and interpreting that into movement and mapping. in that respect, it damn close to the same thing as eyetoy, just at a significantly higher level of computing power and the added camera to provide depth information (which again it's not providing the actual information, just the added IR video stream for the 360 to extrapolate it).

and I think the people riding on it are doing so for that reason.. It IS in fact a next gen version of eyetoy.. I don't think anyone is saying anything stupid like "it's two eyetoys taped together". I just think people are thinking that 8 years and a serious processing jump later, that we would have moved further than just a bit more accurate motion interpretation. If that is appropriate or not, who knows? Maybe it really is what they expected?

 

[Firewire]

move controller is sold out pretty damn near everywhere. What you are seeing on amazon is the bundle. the actual controller is showing 2-4 weeks shipping on amazon and sold out on gamestop as well. The thing is, like I mentioned earlier, savvy PS3 owners are buying the Move controller and a used PS Eye from Gamestop or ebay, or buying a bundle and an extra controller or two at worst.

That's kind of an interesting point here.. The perfect sale for Kinect is 1:1 with 360 consoles.. so what is the perfect sale for Move? 1:1? 2:1? etc?

A bit off topic..

Any idea when Move controllers will be restocked in the GTA? I want to pick up another for archery in SC but stores don't have them. I can only find the starter bundle.

 

[boingball]

Kinect will CRUSH Move. That's a fact. Now whether or not it reaches the heights MS is hoping for remains to be seen, but it'll definitely do much better than Move. Kevin Butler ads alone aren't going to make Joe Schmoe care about a peripheral that offers nothing new to the market.

I agree that Kinect will outsell Move (since M$ will throw money at it).

But if you are saying that Move is offering nothing new, then I counter neither is Kinect (ever heard of a device named EyeToy? with that you could control games without a physical controller just by using your hands. And yes, you could use it while sitting ). (Kinect is of course an evolution of EyeToy, but so is Move, (evolution of Wii)).

 

[shinnn]

I hate to nitpick, but that is not full skeletal tracking in 3D. It is computing skeletal points from the 3D data it has (not "full" 3D, it is the surface facing the camera). The skeleton it computes can and will often be incorrect. The question is how often it affects gameplay (see the latest Eden hands on for example).

There has been twenty years of body tracking with RGB data. It may not work as well in poor conditions, but it can work well.

Ku-Fu Live (PSEye game, no Move) uses Freemotion to do this task.

http://www.virtualairguitar.com/technology/

serious.. you need to do the moves sido to side.. it's 2D... just crap:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtooRIJZnLM


Kinect:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rjLC04vGVzM

yeah.. it's crap too, but same technology? no way.

 

[Commanche Raisin Toast]

Far more advanced than anything eyetoy.

the technology itself, sure, but the end products don't seem like anything that the Eye couldn't do via software alone. it's like having some big expensive turbo engine in a new concept car that still does the same top speed as a cheaper mid-range sedan. if the consumer doesn't see the end results being new they won't want it or they won't stick with it.

quite literally, with eyetoy, you 'were the controller'. regardless of how 'primitively' (read: differently) it detected you and your body's motions.

so the way i see it is the kinect is being marketed as something totally new/original, when the reality is that the technology inside it is the only thing remotely unique/innovative. the content itself isn't. it's a skin-deep proposal to the consumer. the only thing TRULY new here im seeing is the console maker treating their new peripheral as a companion platform. the software itself is what's going to sink it or make it successful.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Maybe I'm missing something, but I havent seen ONE Kinect application that makes me want one over the Wii. Everything seems very much so a warming over of Wii's offerings with a different, 'edgier' and more colorful coat of paint.

Thats the only problem Kinect has with me.... And the largest.

 

[Ninja Moomin]

as a PS Move owner i'm really excited about kinect.... what move desperately needs is a game or experience that truly differentiates they device.... something that isn't just mimicking a wii experience.


kinect offers something thats very novel to the majority of mass market consumers ... the only real issue to it doing gangbusters is the cost of a 360 + kinect

 

[dark10x]

Can you honestly not see the difference between this and eyetoy? Notice how it seperates the player from the background? Check out the green and orange lines. That is full skeletal tracking in 3d. Far more advanced than anything eyetoy.

Is anyone doubting that it's more advanced than Eyetoy? Eyetoy was released in 2003 and was demonstrated prior to that (started development in the 90s).

The problem here is that the improvements Kinect is bring to the table, while impressive, are no where near as advanced as they really should be at this stage in the game. It's 2010 now.

Regardless of what goes on beneath the surface, consumers will most certainly draw comparisons and if they see problems arise it won't matter how advanced it is supposed to be.

Do you really believe Kinect is delivering on its promises?

Maybe I'm missing something, but I havent seen ONE Kinect application that makes me want one over the Wii. Everything seems very much so a warming over of Wii's offerings with a different, 'edgier' and more colorful coat of paint.

Thats the only problem Kinect has with me.... And the largest.

I'm with you on that. The types of Wii-like experiences they are presenting are exactly the type of thing I dislike playing on the Wii to begin with. I want to see intelligent use of this device to support the types of games I enjoy in addition to the Wii content (which is necessary as such games are definitely popular). Microsoft seems to be shunning their XBOX audience.

 

[PSGames]

Uh, seems like the strategy is "Make sure there are a LOT of ways this can be successful and useful"

Did you even bother applying your quandary to Kinect: Why release an optional controller that will have very few unique games made for it?

You mention also that Move controls will be tacked on... but then there's Children of Eden.

I don't think anyone knows exactly what Sony's strategy is but I was responding to this:

I don't think Sony is trying to launch Move as a new platform, though. It's a new controller for an existing platform in their eyes and it will feature compatibility with a huge number of games that also function with a standard controller.

If that is their strategy I think it's a mistake. Positioning it as merely an alternate control scheme and not a new platform means 3rd parties will build their games with controllers in mind and then add on Move controls afterwards. In this scenario I don't see Move reaching it's full potential. Get it?

 

[Koren]

correct me if I'm wrong, but what you are actually seeing in that footage is processed information from images captured from the two cameras, right? as far as I understand it, the actual camera has no motion processing hardware in it whatsoever. in that respect, and I don't mean this mockingly, it's not "much different" than eye toy. The camera tech is a bit more sophisticated, what with two cameras one of which working in the IR frequency, but in the end the real power of kinect comes from the 360 processing the image data from both cameras and interpreting that into movement and mapping. in that respect, it damn close to the same thing as eyetoy, just at a significantly higher level of computing power and the added camera to provide depth information (which again it's not providing the actual information, just the added IR video stream for the 360 to extrapolate it).

and I think the people riding on it are doing so for that reason.. It IS in fact a next gen version of eyetoy.. I don't think anyone is saying anything stupid like "it's two eyetoys taped together". I just think people are thinking that 8 years and a serious processing jump later, that we would have moved further than just a bit more accurate motion interpretation. If that is appropriate or not, who knows? Maybe it really is what they expected?

I'd say the difference is pretty huge, still, between the two techs. Not just a matter of software backed with some additionnal data. The 3D depht map that 360 received from kinect is a giant advantage over just an RGB image for body tracking. First, it's nearly immediate background rejection, as long as the subject is sufficiently far from any object (not sitting in the couch, no object in the camera path).

If you want a comparison, it's pretty much the difference, to recognize an object, between looking at it, and looking at it and touching it.

That being said, I'm really interested in the tech itself (most of those 3D camera usually cost more than $1000, so building a cheap one is interesting), but I'm not convinced that gaming can benefits from it except in a handful of genres. Far less than solutions from Nintendo and Sony.

 

[Thetallywacker]

If it's a hit than games don't matter. If it bombs than it had no games. Never seen the first happen but who knows.

 

[DeadGzuz]

Positioning it as merely an alternate control scheme and not a new platform means ...

Semantics. "All new platform" is just PR, it is just a camera which acts like an input device. It is not a console and will be used in far less games than a traditional controller sue to the high system resource cost and limited ways to actually use it (see PSEye).