Starchasing
Member
TheBranca18 said:
There is nothing worst than an itch you cant scratch
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
My Fanboy market analysis of HD consoles... and then some
- Thread starter MikeB
- Start date
- Status
There is nothing worst than an itch you cant scratch
Kestastrophe
Member
AkuMifune said:
I didn't "delete" the other games that he listed because those were all correct in their release dates. It is widely accepted that FF is not coming out this year, and I made a note of that. Thanks for tarding up the thread and trying to make into system wars......
Starchasing
Member
Kestastrophe said:
Its a skewed market analysis of HD consoles, what did you expect???
Kestastrophe
Member
I would like for it to come out this year and it would finally give me an excuse to pick up a PS3, but I doubt it. It seems like Sony's 08 lineup is already so strong that they'll want to keep this one on the back burner.MikeB said:
Kestastrophe said:
Level 5 seems to have hope (IGN): "He feels that if a breakthrough title is released for the system, the current sales situation could change, and expressed the hope that Final Fantasy XIII and Metal Gear Solid 4 would be released quickly (this interview was, presumably, conducted before the MGS4 release date announcement)."
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
MikeB said:
It has been explained numerous times why your "analysis" is complete trash. At this point you're just bumping your thread to your own embarassment.
There's a sweet spot, but ratio arguments *do* inherently favor smaller bases. It tends to factor only when (1) the smaller base is still relatively healthy sized with decent market presence and shelfspace (2) there's an insurmountable disparity in userbase between platforms.MikeB said:
Comparing 360 to PS3 in Japan is something of a special case though, that doesn't really fit either criteria and really isn't applicable to comparison with the machines in western markets (where both platforms are doing appreciably well, and even leading some markets in software). A better comparison for platforms in Japan might be Wii vs PS2, where the rule actually holds for most simultaneous multiplatform releases (Powapuro, Basara, etc).
jarrod said:
I don't think so, the PS2 in Japan lost its hype due to being pretty old and Wii and PS3. I do however think having a narrow software gerne diversity plays a significantly role, if you concentrate mainly on FPS/shooter games, naturally people who like FPS games buy the console and it can be expected a new high profile FPS/shooter performs relatively well compared to platforms serving more diverse game gernes.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
MikeB said:
Well, every one of my posts in this thread for one. Others have made very thorough justification on why this opinion piece can't be assumed to be anything more than the wanderings of a fanboy. I mean, I love sales-age, but this it is not.
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
Sony has gained ground for sure but look how hard it is being pushed.
I just recently got in on a Sony credit card deal that offered 100 bucks off a PS3 if it was bought before the end of this month.
Also look at how many HDTV/PS3 deals that Best Buy, Circuit City and others have done. The 5 free blu-ray movie offer is another example of desperately trying to get the system sold. I guess you could also throw in the reconfiguring of the 26/60GB's into 40/80GB units and the free game of Motorstorm in there as well.
I'm not sure what the PS3's total sales figures would be like right now without all the bundling and special offers by retailers and Sony. It just seems like the special offers have never stopped since about three months after launch which was about the time everyone realized it wasn't selling like it should be.
I know we GAF'ers have definitely benefitted.
I just recently got in on a Sony credit card deal that offered 100 bucks off a PS3 if it was bought before the end of this month.
Also look at how many HDTV/PS3 deals that Best Buy, Circuit City and others have done. The 5 free blu-ray movie offer is another example of desperately trying to get the system sold. I guess you could also throw in the reconfiguring of the 26/60GB's into 40/80GB units and the free game of Motorstorm in there as well.
I'm not sure what the PS3's total sales figures would be like right now without all the bundling and special offers by retailers and Sony. It just seems like the special offers have never stopped since about three months after launch which was about the time everyone realized it wasn't selling like it should be.
I know we GAF'ers have definitely benefitted.
Dr. Kitty Muffins said:Sony has gained ground for sure but look how hard it is being pushed.
I just recently got in on a Sony credit card deal that offered 100 bucks off a PS3 if it was bought before the end of this month.
Also look at how many HDTV/PS3 deals that Best Buy, Circuit City and others have done. The 5 free blu-ray movie offer is another example of desperately trying to get the system sold. I guess you could also throw in the reconfiguring of the 26/60GB's into 40/80GB units and the free game of Motorstorm in there as well.
I'm not sure what the PS3's total sales figures would be like right now without all the bundling and special offers by retailers and Sony. It just seems like the special offers have never stopped since about three months after launch which was about the time everyone realized it wasn't selling like it should be.
I know we GAF'ers have definitely benefitted.
Sony offered a similar deal for Australia last year:
Free PS3 Helps Sony To Record Profits
"Sony, which in Australia snared 40% of the LCD TV market over the peak Xmas / New Year buying period by giving away a free PS3 with its HD Bravia TVs, has reported that its net profit rose by more than 25 percent in its third quarter, ended Dec. 31, behind strong sales of televisions and video games." (Source: Smarthouse)
Sounds like this may be good business rather than just 'desperation'.
An additional past quote regarding Bravia deals:
Sydney Morning Herald:
"The install base for PS3 in Australia is now 190,000, which includes 30,000 consoles given away with Bravia television sets in a post-Christmas promotion that dramatically lifted sales of Sony's LCD TVs and saw Sony Computer Entertainment scrambling to get sufficient console stocks to satisfy demand."
Smarthouse reported Sony had to airfreight in more Bravia TVs for Australia as well to meet demand.
Sydney Morning Herald:
"The install base for PS3 in Australia is now 190,000, which includes 30,000 consoles given away with Bravia television sets in a post-Christmas promotion that dramatically lifted sales of Sony's LCD TVs and saw Sony Computer Entertainment scrambling to get sufficient console stocks to satisfy demand."
Smarthouse reported Sony had to airfreight in more Bravia TVs for Australia as well to meet demand.
Dr. Kitty Muffins said:Sony has gained ground for sure but look how hard it is being pushed.
I just recently got in on a Sony credit card deal that offered 100 bucks off a PS3 if it was bought before the end of this month.
Also look at how many HDTV/PS3 deals that Best Buy, Circuit City and others have done. The 5 free blu-ray movie offer is another example of desperately trying to get the system sold. I guess you could also throw in the reconfiguring of the 26/60GB's into 40/80GB units and the free game of Motorstorm in there as well.
I'm not sure what the PS3's total sales figures would be like right now without all the bundling and special offers by retailers and Sony. It just seems like the special offers have never stopped since about three months after launch which was about the time everyone realized it wasn't selling like it should be.
I know we GAF'ers have definitely benefitted.
I like what ifs.
cortland_andrus
Banned
MikeB said:
Link to the promises?
In terms of software sales, PS2's still quite healthy in Japan (healthier than PS3 even honestly). I mean, which platform just got a Persona 4 annoucement?MikeB said:
Depth and diversity of library certainly plays a role as well, as does timing, publicity, brand and a host of other factors. But still, there's a trend towards ratio arguments favoring smaller userbases. Historically, there's other platforms to show this as well (SS vs PS, DC/GC vs PS2).
http://plusd.itmedia.co.jp/games/articles/0601/10/news008.html (Japanese)cortland_andrus said:
http://gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=7743 (translated snippets)
http://www.gamepro.com/news.cfm?article_id=51072 (differently translated, different snippets)
Not really a promise. He just kept that door open, acknowledged that they could release a Blu-ray drive if the market swings in its favor. Kinda like that MMO/rivaling WoW thing we did yesterday. "Could", he.
cortland_andrus said:
On the promise of choice:
"In an interview with Japanese website ITmedia, Moore noted that, if the format war concluded with Blu-Ray as the clear winner, Microsoft could release an external Blu-Ray drive for its 360."
Were not forcing movie technology on game players, but instead are letting them choose how to personalize their experiences.
"No, no, its about choice."
I think Microsoft only wanted to delay Blu-Ray's success and failed hard. It's not about choice. I wonder why they included DVD playback if they didn't want to force gamers into using a "movie format".
IMO for the PS3 Blu-Ray is especially of importance with regard to the long term potential of games.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Kapsama said:
You drastically underestimate my need for self-congratulatory praise. kinda like the OP, i assume i'm right because i just freakin said it. And later tonight, when i make my own fucking next-gen analysis, you can make the same worthless posts in there too.
Your talking to a poster who calls the 24th of December "momentum" instead of "christmas".Kapsama said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
bcn-ron said:
Aren't you the twit that was laughed out of the Media Create threads and haven't been back since? And I'm still not sure how what you just linked is incorrect at all.
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
MikeB said:
It is actually a little of each.
Just ahead of April NPD figures I added some additional information to the original post, the additional comment are within quote boxes. I also cut out some redundant NDS, PS2, Wii, etc sales data to save some space.
Newly added info:
Europe in general:
Specifically with regard to the UK:
With regard to Australia:
With regard to the US (waiting for April NPD figures for the US to add):
With regard to globally sold to retailers figures:
Newly added info:
Europe in general:
Specifically with regard to the UK:
With regard to Australia:
With regard to the US (waiting for April NPD figures for the US to add):
With regard to globally sold to retailers figures:
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Wait, why add PSP sales to a topic on HD consoles?
OldJadedGamer
Banned
MikeB said:
Interesting follow up to this is that Sony isn't delivering the promised PS3 units to these customers.
http://smarthouse.com.au/TVs_And_Large_Display/LCD/R6D7N8C2
"Thousands of the 28,000 consumers who purchased a Sony Bravia LCD TV on the basic that they would get a new Blu ray Sony PS3 gaming console are still waiting for their PS3 four months out from when the promotion was run."
Sony says they are out of stock on PS3 units to send to consumers for the promotion yet there are stacks sitting in stores.
Adding the latest NPD figures.
So far for 2008 counting to April, the PS3 sold 993,000 units and the 360 sold 934,000 units for the US.
The platforms seem to be going head to head for now, eyes are now mainly on the release of MGS4 for the PS3 and potential price cuts.
The total PS3 install base for the US was roughly ~4,2 million and the 360 install base was roughly ~10 million at the end of April.
Looking at these consumer figures and comparing this with Microsoft's retailer data it's interesting to note consumers bought more 360s from retailers in the United States than retailers around the world outside of the US bought 360s from Microsoft. Retailers worldwide bought 19 million around the end of March.
So far for 2008 counting to April, the PS3 sold 993,000 units and the 360 sold 934,000 units for the US.
The platforms seem to be going head to head for now, eyes are now mainly on the release of MGS4 for the PS3 and potential price cuts.
The total PS3 install base for the US was roughly ~4,2 million and the 360 install base was roughly ~10 million at the end of April.
Looking at these consumer figures and comparing this with Microsoft's retailer data it's interesting to note consumers bought more 360s from retailers in the United States than retailers around the world outside of the US bought 360s from Microsoft. Retailers worldwide bought 19 million around the end of March.
Market analysts are often so far off and pumping out data which simply contradicts with one another. Sometimes it makes you wonder if they are worth their money, doesn't it? ;-)
However they have to predict based on many llikelihoods and endless unknows (How big of an impact will a certain game have? This without knowing beforehand if there will be delays or if the game will be any good. They usually lack the any insight with regard to how fast and to what extend console features and console specific game engines will be able to evolve. And the exact timing and extend of possible pricedrops, introductions of new models, etc aren't set in stone).
But here's a CNET projection with regard to their future outlook and the one thing which makes this analyst's prior projections interesting is that he predicted back in early 2007 that Nintendo wouldn't be able to meet demand with the Nintendo Wii until 2009 (so far he's been right about this from a worldwide perspective).
In this chart there is no significant sign of a sales slowdown for the PS3 by the end of 2012. If we assume the projection is roughly accurate and the PS3 really does have a 10 year shelf space, the PS3 should be able to significantly outperform the PS2 in 2016, the PS2 will likely peak at around 140 million units sold and the PS3 may reach 10s of millions more people.
However they have to predict based on many llikelihoods and endless unknows (How big of an impact will a certain game have? This without knowing beforehand if there will be delays or if the game will be any good. They usually lack the any insight with regard to how fast and to what extend console features and console specific game engines will be able to evolve. And the exact timing and extend of possible pricedrops, introductions of new models, etc aren't set in stone).
But here's a CNET projection with regard to their future outlook and the one thing which makes this analyst's prior projections interesting is that he predicted back in early 2007 that Nintendo wouldn't be able to meet demand with the Nintendo Wii until 2009 (so far he's been right about this from a worldwide perspective).
In this chart there is no significant sign of a sales slowdown for the PS3 by the end of 2012. If we assume the projection is roughly accurate and the PS3 really does have a 10 year shelf space, the PS3 should be able to significantly outperform the PS2 in 2016, the PS2 will likely peak at around 140 million units sold and the PS3 may reach 10s of millions more people.
The PS3 is going to sell almost 30m consoles in 2010? Did even the PS2 ever sell that many consoles in a year? :lolMikeB said:Market analysts are often so far off and pumping out data which simply contradicts with one another. Sometimes it makes you wonder if they are worth their money, doesn't it? ;-)
However they have to predict based on many llikelihoods and endless unknows (How big of an impact will a certain game have? This without knowing beforehand if there will be delays or if the game will be any good. They usually lack the any insight with regard to how fast and to what extend console features and console specific game engines will be able to evolve. And the exact timing and extend of possible pricedrops, introductions of new models, etc aren't set in stone).
But here's a CNET projection with regard to their future outlook and the one thing which makes this analyst's prior projections interesting is that he predicted back in early 2007 that Nintendo wouldn't be able to meet demand with the Nintendo Wii until 2009 (so far he's been right about this from a worldwide perspective).
In this chart there is no significant sign of a sales slowdown for the PS3 by the end of 2012. If we assume the projection is roughly accurate and the PS3 really does have a 10 year shelf space, the PS3 should be able to significantly outperform the PS2 in 2016, the PS2 will likely peak at around 140 million units sold and the PS3 may reach 10s of millions more people.
Personally I don't think the 360 will not reach 40 million by that time.
@ pswii60
No, looking at their chart they anticipate more like 20 million unit sales.
Maybe they anticipate a cheaper slimline PS3 to sell much better and have games like Dragon Quest and a PS3 console exclusive release of GTA V / San Andreas 2 released for the platform.
Would be nice if they added some more insight as with regard to why and how.
No, looking at their chart they anticipate more like 20 million unit sales.
Maybe they anticipate a cheaper slimline PS3 to sell much better and have games like Dragon Quest and a PS3 console exclusive release of GTA V / San Andreas 2 released for the platform.
Would be nice if they added some more insight as with regard to why and how.
That's an atrocious chart from cnet. It's just as bad as the Screen Digest one.
Also, why are you focusing so much on Australia, and not providing any updates about Japan?
Is it because your prediction of 2008 being the PS3s breakout year is proving to be completely retarded as it has reached new lows in the last couple of months?
Also, why are you focusing so much on Australia, and not providing any updates about Japan?
Is it because your prediction of 2008 being the PS3s breakout year is proving to be completely retarded as it has reached new lows in the last couple of months?
legend166 said:
Slow sales months, not much has changed with regard to the HD consoles ratio with regard to Japan. Both consoles show ultra slow sales, the 360 is pretty much dead. Expect an update when one of the big games I listed hits this market, certainly the release of Metal Gear Solid 4 will make comparisons a bit more interesting.
MikeB said:
Oh, so you're one of those people?
How do you explain the compete ineffectiveness of all the other franchises, many of which are larger than MGS, to push sales in Japan?
Wait for [insert game] is a ridiculous argument. It didn't work for Nintendo fans last generation, and it's not going to work this generation.
- Status
Similar threads
- Poll
- Poll