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My mom is "scared" by Obama. Could this be a common problem come November?

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Gaborn said:
I don't think nearly as many people tended to oppose him because of his race as supported him because of it, especially in the Democratic primary because of the make up of their primary voters. Blacks, while only about what, 12%? It's closer to 25-30% black in the Democratic primary because a disproportionate number of blacks are Democrats, and that's the group most likely to be positively influenced by his race, whereas white Democrats are a lot less likely to be racist than white republicans, mainly because of LBJ's positions during the civil rights movement driving many racists out of the party. Not to say there are none, but probably proportionally fewer.

Kusagari - Sure, but we're talking about the primary, not the general election. I'm just saying that his race helped him get the primary nod, I'm not commenting on the general.
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Funny thing is, before South Carolina, he was actually losing the black vote.
 
captive said:
Really? Cause i see a bunch of obama supporters(denoted by their avatars) calling whitey racist if they dont vote for a black man.
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Where did I say this? Where did anyone say this?
 
eznark said:
"reality frightens me"
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Are we still on the "OMG obama won the black vote, hillary the women's vote, McCain the veteran's vote, and jeez! Romney the Mormon vote!"

Must be a conspiracy there. Maybe McCain will win Arizona?! Then things will really be nuts!
 
Gaborn said:
Or, perhaps, "I can't explain why 90% of blacks supported Obama and about 45-55% of whites. Perhaps there's racism on both sides of his supporters?"
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Jesus Christ. Obama did not initially have the majority of the Black vote, Hillary did. And there is a rather LARGE and distinct difference between voting based on race for empowerment and voting based on race due to hatred. Both are ignorant reasons to solely base a vote on but there are vast differences between the two.
 
UltimaKilo said:
Are we still on the "OMG obama won the black vote, hillary the women's vote, McCain the veteran's vote, and jeez! Romney the Mormon vote!"

Must be a conspiracy there. Maybe McCain will win Arizona?! Then things will really be nuts!
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You see that Grandjedi6!
 
dabig2 said:
Funny thing is, before South Carolina, he was actually losing the black vote.
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Sample size. The number of black voters in Iowa and New Hampshire is MINISCULE (they're the whitest states in the nation, or at least among the top 5 whitest). I'm sure there's a car lot somewhere with 5 people driving off in a hot pink ford focus. I don't think that means that's a popular color for that car.

harSon - Voting for a candidate and rejecting another candidate because of race is racism. There is "good racism" and "bad racism" I suppose, but racism just means making distinctions between people based on their race. Which a portion of black obama supporters are doing, just as a portion of Hillary supporters are doing. You can dress that up different ways, but it still is the definition of racism.
 
The majority of voters will make their decision based on similar arguments. The question is whether or not whether or not the voters will buy into a fallacious narrative but whether their narrative of choice leads them to vote for McCain or Obama.
 
scorcho said:
that's why people turn to guns and religion.
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Elitist. :lol

Either way, this means that the Obama camp does have to work hard (yea yea I know, stating the obvious), which means they can't fall complacent like Hillary.
 
Gaborn said:
Sample size. The number of black voters in Iowa and New Hampshire is MINISCULE (they're the whitest states in the nation, or at least among the top 5 whitest). I'm sure there's a car lot somewhere with 5 people driving off in a hot pink ford focus. I don't think that means that's a popular color for that car.
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And? Doesn't change the fact that he was losing the Black vote. Blacks from states with large Black demographics were not the only ones to change, he got similar swings in every single state.
 
harSon said:
Jesus Christ. Obama did not initially have the majority of the Black vote, Hillary did. And there is a rather LARGE and distinct difference between voting based on race for empowerment and voting based on race due to hatred. Both are ignorant reasons to solely base a vote on but there are vast differences between the two.
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Bingo.
 
harSon said:
And? Doesn't change the fact that he was losing the Black vote. Blacks from states with large Black demographics were not the only ones to change, he got similar swings in every single state.
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No, he very well did NOT get "similar swings" the black vote went from marginally against him to heavily favoring him. The logical conclusion is that Iowa and New Hampshire are outlier states and not representative of the larger black population.

bob - The only distinction between the two is in people's minds. Racism is racism, it's just that some racism is "ok" to some people. Racial distinctions in voting patterns are still racist.

Merriam Webster

1 : a belief that race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race
2 : racial prejudice or discrimination
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If you're judging a candidate to be better because of race you're a racist.
 
UltimaKilo said:
Hmm... then you should look for another school if they never taught you about. Go back and ask your professor to teach you about the options for creating diplomacy and the disadvantages and advantages of direct or indirect negotiations. Usually this can be found in textbooks under "The conduct of Diplomacy" or "National Power and Diplomacy" in higher end classes. Perhaps under "Leader to Leader Diplomacy" as well.
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:lol :lol :lol :lol he goes to Columbia you pretentious sack of shit! :lol :lol
 
UltimaKilo said:
Are we still on the "OMG obama won the black vote, hillary the women's vote, McCain the veteran's vote, and jeez! Romney the Mormon vote!"

Must be a conspiracy there. Maybe McCain will win Arizona?! Then things will really be nuts!
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I wasn't talking about votes, I was discussing reasons for success, and to claim identity politics played zero role in Obama's meteoric rise is self-delusional.

Parsing why who voted for whom based on exit polls, especially when race and gender is involved, is foolish at best.
 
Gaborn said:
No, he very well did NOT get "similar swings" the black vote went from marginally against him to heavily favoring him. The logical conclusion is that Iowa and New Hampshire are outlier states and not representative of the larger black population.
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He got an overwhelming majority of the Blacks in every state after those two, even in states with predominantly White Demographics.
 
Gaborn said:
Sample size. The number of black voters in Iowa and New Hampshire is MINISCULE (they're the whitest states in the nation, or at least among the top 5 whitest). I'm sure there's a car lot somewhere with 5 people driving off in a hot pink ford focus. I don't think that means that's a popular color for that car.
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Thing is, she was polling ahead of him in the black vote in every single poll, not just in Iowa and New Hampshire. Blacks were a little cynical of him at the start because they expected him to lose badly. After time, they started to gravitate towards him once they saw that he was the real deal and after Bill Clinton, their former hero, angered most of the nation's blacks.
 
Gaborn said:
No, he very well did NOT get "similar swings" the black vote went from marginally against him to heavily favoring him. The logical conclusion is that Iowa and New Hampshire are outlier states and not representative of the larger black population.
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Or people at that point did not have confidence that Obama could win until after he got momentum? There could be a million reasons. If Iowa was redone today, polls indicate that Hillary would win. Likely because of "Bittergate".
 
Gaborn said:
No, he very well did NOT get "similar swings" the black vote went from marginally against him to heavily favoring him. The logical conclusion is that Iowa and New Hampshire are outlier states and not representative of the larger black population.

bob - The only distinction between the two is in people's minds. Racism is racism, it's just that some racism is "ok" to some people. Racial distinctions in voting patterns are still racist.
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Racism is discrimination based on race. Some Blacks were voting for the Black candidate, not against the white one. Like I previously stated, it's an ignorant means of voting, not a racist one.
 
harSon said:
He got an overwhelming majority of the Blacks in every state after those two, even in states with predominantly White Demographics.
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Yes, I agree. What I THOUGHT you were saying is that he got similar demographic swings among all races (that is, whites started heavily favoring him, rather than consistently slightly so). What I'm saying is that Iowa and New Hampshire may have some quality that is different. One explanation among some pollsters is that Obama needed to establish credibility with the black community to convince them to vote for him, and he did that by winning Iowa.
 
As I've said in the other thread, my mother dislikes Obama. She gets angry and changes the channel when she turns it to MSNBC or CNN and sees him on screen. It isn't because he's black. She thinks he's a bullshitter and has no experiene and people are dumb for voting for him. She loved the Clinton era in the 90s when the country was prosperous an thinks Hillary would bring back those times, although times are different with the Iraq/Afghanistan war and high oil prices, so it would be hard to accomplish what Bill did.

Anyway, I know this guy at my gym, and I told him the story about what my mother thinks of Obama. He tells me his mother (who lives in Jersey) thinks of the same of Obama.
 
Gaborn said:
Yes, I agree. What I THOUGHT you were saying is that he got similar demographic swings among all races (that is, whites started heavily favoring him, rather than consistently slightly so. What I'm saying is that Iowa and New Hampshire may have some quality that is different. One explanation among some pollsters is that Obama needed to establish credibility with the black community to convince them to vote for him, and he did that by winning Iowa.
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Or maybe a certain candidate pissed off the demographic :)
 
harSon said:
Or maybe a certain candidate pissed off the demographic :)
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you're not allowed to say Obama didn't do it all on his own. Implying Hillary's negatives played a role in Obama's victory is borderline racist...haven't you read this thread?
 
Jason's Ultimatum said:
As I've said in the other thread, my mother dislikes Obama. She gets angry and changes the channel when she turns it to MSNBC or CNN and sees him on screen. It isn't because he's black. She thinks he's a bullshitter and has no experiene and people are dumb for voting for him. She loved the Clinton era in the 90s when the country was prosperous an thinks Hillary would bring back those times, although times are different with the Iraq/Afghanistan war and high oil prices, so it would be hard to accomplish what Bill did.

Anyway, I know this guy at my gym, and I told him the story about what my mother thinks of Obama. He tells me his mother (who lives in Jersey) thinks of the same of Obama.
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And I heard some guy the other day seriously propose that the U.S. should nuke China and India to lower gas prices. :lol
 
harSon said:
Or maybe a certain candidate pissed off the demographic :)
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Could be. But I mean, even early on you heard the "don't tell momma, I'm for Obama" movement calls. I think that minorities tend to be fearful of political retribution and have a hard time going against people that have historically supported them as the Clintons did. What I think happened with Iowa is Obama showed he had a legitimate chance at the nomination, something Jesse Jackson and other black candidates never did. If Obama had flopped in Iowa he'd have had a harder time, I think, convincing blacks to support him, especially by the margins he got, because it'd be in their rational self interest to back Hillary if she was going to win the nomination.
 
Gaborn said:
Could be. But I mean, even early on you heard the "don't tell momma, I'm for Obama" movement calls. I think that minorities tend to be fearful of political retribution and have a hard time going against people that have historically supported them as the Clintons did. What I think happened with Iowa is Obama showed he had a legitimate chance at the nomination, something Jesse Jackson and other black candidates never did. If Obama had flopped in Iowa he'd have had a harder time, I think, convincing blacks to support him, especially by the margins he got, because it'd be in their rational self interest to back Hillary if she was going to win the nomination.
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If Obama would have lost Iowa, Hillary would likely be the nominee.
 
Gaborn said:
Could be. But I mean, even early on you heard the "don't tell momma, I'm for Obama" movement calls. I think that minorities tend to be fearful of political retribution and have a hard time going against people that have historically supported them as the Clintons did. What I think happened with Iowa is Obama showed he had a legitimate chance at the nomination, something Jesse Jackson and other black candidates never did. If Obama had flopped in Iowa he'd have had a harder time, I think, convincing blacks to support him, especially by the margins he got, because it'd be in their rational self interest to back Hillary if she was going to win the nomination.
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It was a combination of Obama being a viable Black candidate and Bill Clinton's comments preceding the South Carolina Primary.
 
UltimaKilo said:
If Obama would have lost Iowa, Hillary would likely be the nominee.
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Exactly. and THAT's why blacks felt safe enough to support Obama. It's not because he suddenly became a good candidate to them, it's that he's the candidate they always wanted but were afraid to support.

harSon - perhaps IN south carolina, but I doubt most people, black or white, follow those comments enough to even remember much what Clinton said following that state, especially as we got further away from it.
 
Gaborn said:
Exactly. and THAT's why blacks felt safe enough to support Obama. It's not because he suddenly became a good candidate to them, it's that he's the candidate they always wanted but were afraid to support.

harSon - perhaps IN south carolina, but I doubt most people, black or white, follow those comments enough to even remember much what Clinton said following that state.
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Yep, didn't want to leave Billary if they thought Obama couldn't win. Had Hillary won Iowa, her momentum would have likely been too great to overcome.
 
RubxQub said:
What is your explanation of how this "weak candidate" in Obama just defeated Hillary Clinton?

Weak candidate...are you fucking kidding me?
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He will need help. Let's look at the South. Approximately 80% Republican. The plains states and mountain states. Probably 80% Republican.
Obama will offset those states with California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
I think Ohio will be a toss up. Michigan is looking like it's for McCain right now. Pennsylvania is a big question mark.
Obama will need Florida or some surprise majorities in two or three of the southern, plains, or mountain states.
Florida will be the key (a toss-up right now) and Texas could be what decides this election if Obama could swing Texas over.
Obama will need some help from us.
 
Gaborn said:
No, he very well did NOT get "similar swings" the black vote went from marginally against him to heavily favoring him. The logical conclusion is that Iowa and New Hampshire are outlier states and not representative of the larger black population.
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That is far from the only logical conclusion possible. Honestly.

Edit:

Exactly. and THAT's why blacks felt safe enough to support Obama.
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WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU?
 
hc2 said:
He will need help. Let's look at the South. Approximately 80% Republican. The plains states and mountain states. Probably 80% Republican.
Obama will offset those states with California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
I think Ohio will be toss up. Michigan is looking like it's for McCain right now.
Obama will need Florida or some surprise majorities in two or three of the southern, plains, or mountain states.
Florida will be the key (a toss-up right now) and Texas could be what decides this election if Obama could swing Texas over.
Obama will need some help from us.
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http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/

mccain-obama-final.png


This picture is at least based in reality using polling data.
 
Jason's Ultimatum said:
As I've said in the other thread, my mother dislikes Obama. She gets angry and changes the channel when she turns it to MSNBC or CNN and sees him on screen. It isn't because he's black. She thinks he's a bullshitter and has no experiene and people are dumb for voting for him. She loved the Clinton era in the 90s when the country was prosperous an thinks Hillary would bring back those times, although times are different with the Iraq/Afghanistan war and high oil prices, so it would be hard to accomplish what Bill did.

Anyway, I know this guy at my gym, and I told him the story about what my mother thinks of Obama. He tells me his mother (who lives in Jersey) thinks of the same of Obama.
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I'm still amazed that anyone actually believes the "Glory Days" in the 90s were solely thanks to Hillary/Bill and not global conditions at the time. Though I guess it is kind of mind-boggling just how much of the world depends on oil. And in the 90s, we had relatively cheap oil. Like 98 cents a gallon. heh
 
Ok, can some of you PLEASE STOP ASSUMING you know what black voters were/are thinking on part of Obama. I'm offended of the idea that black people only came out to vote simply because he started doing well and that got them confidence to do so. So unless you have poll/survey answers to back up your statements, please shut up! I won't say anymore or then I might be accused of being racist.
 
Gaborn said:
It's also old data, McCain's ahead in Michigan.
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By 3 points, which is well within the margin of error for RCP.

The longer this race goes on, the more Obama is going to climb in the polls. He did it in the primaries, he will do it in the general.
 
RubxQub said:
By 3 points, which is well within the margin of error for RCP.

The longer this race goes on, the more Obama is going to climb in the polls. He did it in the primaries, he will do it in the general.
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I'm not so sure, but it'll be interesting to watch either way. (though, the data from the survey usa map was Obama by ONE in Michigan)
 
VeritasVierge said:
Ok, can some of you PLEASE STOP ASSUMING you know what black voters were/are thinking on part of Obama. I'm offended of the idea that black people only came out to vote simply because he started doing well and that got them confidence to do so. So unless you have poll/survey answers to back up your statements, please shut up! I won't say anymore or then I might be accused of being racist.
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[sarcasm] black people are monolithic, unlike saintly whites who are able to look past race.
 
Gaborn said:
I'm not so sure, but it'll be interesting to watch either way. (though, the data from the survey usa map was Obama by ONE in Michigan)
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This map also shows NJ and PA to be red.

PA maybe, but NJ? Fucking no way.
 
hc2 said:
He will need help. Let's look at the South. Approximately 80% Republican. The plains states and mountain states. Probably 80% Republican.
Obama will offset those states with California, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.
I think Ohio will be toss up. Michigan is looking like it's for McCain right now.
Obama will need Florida or some surprise majorities in two or three of the southern, plains, or mountain states.
Florida will be the key (a toss-up right now) and Texas could be what decides this election if Obama could swing Texas over.
Obama will need some help from us.
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58% of Hillary supporters are voting McCain or not at all, McCain pulls in many independents and is more center than Obama. Bittergate, Rev. Wright, Aires, etc. have hurt Obama dramatically. Like I said, Obama today would not win Iowa, according to repeated polls post bittergate.
No candidate has ever won the Presidency without winning the last 13 states, which mostly went to Clinton.
Florida was Hillary/McCain town. Gov. Crist on the ticket = instant Florida win.
Obama seemed to loose considerably the most important states to Clinton (which is what she was trying to point out to the super delegates).
He has been beaten up by Hillary while McCain gathers support (as I said, last month the RNC raised 48 million dollars, while the DNC only raised 4.5 million.)

It's not that he is unelectable, he will likely have a very difficult time. And the Clinton for veep is a "damned if ya do, damned if ya don't" situation for him. Clinton could very well call the election even though she is no longer in the race. Who knows, perhaps even Nader will steal some votes from Obama? But if Clinton really wanted to, she could see to it that Obama goes down and you'll see Billary back in 2012.
 
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