akilshohen
Member
Still can't believe something like that came from Forbes...
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Nintendo and SONY doomed. Microsoft?? Doomed too...Forbes again.
- Thread starter guit3457
- Start date
Freaking Forbes contributor articles are going to be the death of the internet man.
People see that the base domain is Forbes, and instantly assume it will be something reasonably thought out and worth reading. Its going to take forEVER before people recognize that tons/most contributor articles are drivel written by people with no clue.
Because in a way, it kinda sorta didn't. They clearly don't cull their contributor content the way they should. Flat out crazy articles make it through, I'm talking full out Blog like rants. Its ridiculous.
People see that the base domain is Forbes, and instantly assume it will be something reasonably thought out and worth reading. Its going to take forEVER before people recognize that tons/most contributor articles are drivel written by people with no clue.
Because in a way, it kinda sorta didn't. They clearly don't cull their contributor content the way they should. Flat out crazy articles make it through, I'm talking full out Blog like rants. Its ridiculous.
Chairman Yang
if he talks about books, you better damn well listen
What, specifically, do you find ludicrous about his article? The guy isn't some random schmuck writing poorly-sourced garbage. Judging by his bio, he's well-educated, highly experienced, and has held top leadership positions. The article itself has plenty of supporting data.
If you want to assert he's wrong, fine, but you'd better have some substance to your criticisms if you want to be taken seriously.
Zoramon089
Banned
That is truly some embarrassing journalism
Chairman Yang
if he talks about books, you better damn well listen
neoanarch said:
He's not ignoring the W7 market share. That number can be roughly inferred from his other figures. His point is that a large chunk of users did not upgrade to W7, and so far, a miniscule percentage has converted to W8.
Versus ended being a GREE timed exclusive FF-themed mahjong game, not sure about TLG though.
Happens every single week on GAF.
Aretak
Member
It's not like any of those things are just pure profit funnelling into Microsoft's pockets. There's the cost of producing the hardware (and the billions they set aside for dealing with the RRoD), maintaining the Xbox Live network, marketing, game development, hardware R&D... people tend to forget all these costs when looking at sales figures.
I know the article sounds far fetched, but I can see this happening. Personally I believe this is Sony's, Microsoft's, and MAYBE Nintendo's last foray into hardware platforms for gaming. I think what will happen in 10 years is that they'll try their hand at a digital platform for game distribution and fail miserably due to Valve having such a huge share of the market by then from Gabe having known since the beginning of Steam that eventually consumers could give two cents about owning a physical copy of a game. In 10 years, once your 5 - 10 year old kids are 15 -20 they will all be on the digital band wagon and those (except for collectors) that are against it now will definitely be for it then. Just like people who swore by the 8 track, beta max, cassette tape, CD, DVD, and BluRay... people are going to be swearing by digital downloads.
As for Microsoft and it's OS, they really are trying hard to cater towards their mobile division which is not taking off whatsoever. Having catered their flagship OS to mobile devices really hurt them with this release. If Windows Blue (or whatever it's called) continues to do the same, then yes, I could see other operating systems being used for businesses and home use. But MS is usually pretty good about putting out badass OSs after their screw-ups.
As for Microsoft and it's OS, they really are trying hard to cater towards their mobile division which is not taking off whatsoever. Having catered their flagship OS to mobile devices really hurt them with this release. If Windows Blue (or whatever it's called) continues to do the same, then yes, I could see other operating systems being used for businesses and home use. But MS is usually pretty good about putting out badass OSs after their screw-ups.
Let's not act like the development for Office for Cloud or Windows is cheaper than it ever was.
And the cost of deployment is supported by the people buying the product anyway, unless I'm mistaken when a company buy an Office product they had to handle the deployment not MSFT.
As far as market presence there's no growth there, they're already getting paid for licences anyway.
With hardware sales being down it means their licences revenue will go down if they don't succeed with their mobile/tablet offspring they will get that much less revenue.
People who bought licences for Xp are buying licences for 7/8, they're also buying way less licences since hardware sales are tanking across the board.
Support is still a cost to companies buying MSFT products, Office and especially Windows support are nothing cheap.
It can't possibly bring more money to MSFT than it already provides.
Seriously it's a good thing most of the problems people have with Windows are not actually problems coming from Windows or MSFT would be that much richer.
And companies buying the products are not morons either, they won't buy Office as a service if for the usual duration of the use of the product it costs much more (especially as they've got serious competition who was there before them this time providing similar products for cheaper).
Also I doubt the business model change that much, people are buying licences anyway, the support is in the price anyway.
There's also the mainstream public where they also had a near monopoly that will disappear overnight if they shut down retail Office (because you won't make people pay for Office cloud when Google provides Docs for free for everyone).
Google included? You talk like they weren't one of the 1rst mover in this area!
They're the reason Office for cloud exists in the 1rst place.
I'm saying that's what is happening but it could be a textbook case of a company getting disrupted although I'm clearly not Christensen on this kind of talk.
The Shift
Banned
Hmmm MS Cloud services fail? I would beg to differ.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hOxA1l1pQIw&feature=related
This always impresses, especially Gen 4
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hOxA1l1pQIw&feature=related
This always impresses, especially Gen 4
Well I wouldn't say Game Over for MS but they are suffocating under their own size. They had no answer for years to iOS. They didn't see the tablet revolution. Their OS is losing marketshare and Windows 8 is like Vista revisited. Add in the terrible dog eat dog culture that the company works under and it's not looking good. Ballmer hasn't really been particularly good for them.
Reminds me of why I think Microsoft might actually be the most likely to bow out of the console race despite how good their position is: Sony's in bad shape and needs to cling to whatever they can (plus they just put Kaz Hirai in charge of the whole corporation), and it's Nintendo's primary business and their only international one. Microsoft? They're pretty big in the OS and productivity software fields, should Xbox falter ENOUGH it's something they could just toss aside, more like a side venture really. Unless, of course, they somehow enter a similar situation to Sony's where gaming is most viable.
Christopher
BDE (Big Dad Energy)
Well does the Xbox division make money or not that's the bottom line if not I don't see the reason to continue as well if their not making a profit.
I don't think the guy's right about his numbers, more likely it's a relatively small profit compared to the rest of their businesses.
Synth_floyd
Banned
I thought the Xbox division was profitable. But it is very clear that the rest of Microsoft peaked a long time ago. MS may be doomed but I don't think Xbox is. I guess you could say the same with Sony. The company itself is doomed but not their videogame division (well Vita is still doomed).
Shtof
Member
It does make money at the moment and has been making money for a couple of years, but the entire Xbox division(including Xbox 1) is still in the red as a whole, at least that is the understanding I got from another thread here on GAF.
I believe that they probably still have it up to continue having brand awareness in the gaming group in hopes of them buying into their other divisions... hopefully mobile. I wouldn't be surprised if the new console they are putting out had some kind of tie in with their mobile phones. I guarantee that they'll have some kind of MAJOR Windows OS based smart phone gimmick with their new console.
no it's not, but it eliminates piracy, the whole China runs on pirated windows and office, their large companies and government included! there is your growth you're looking for!
going cloud make companies independent of hardware, that wont be Microsoft's business, now they will be dealing more directly actually rather than a company buying PCs from Lenovo with the OEM licenses sold to them. cutting the middle man. specially in smaller companies.
support for licensed software already exists, windows update isn't cheap to run, neither is costumer support. now they get paid for it more frequently too!
but they are doing it, because it's more secure, hardware cost a lot less, they don't need to spend on big IT departments, it can be expanded in various departments very cheaply and easily, cost are cut elsewhere, PC makers are doomed yeah, because upgrading won't be very necessary and it cost much less overall. things like Chromebooks will be more popular (not overpriced like they are right now)
in near future? no, in future sure it will change everywhere, slowly it will happen, already underway.
google has tried for years, other open source free solutions as well way before google, still office rules the market, Google has become more serious over the past year but they don't have the established network Microsoft has, uphill battle for them. It won't be easy for anybody of course, competition everywhere but they obviously have the upper hand.
sure, but it's not like they haven't done anything, they actually have a strong foothold there, it's not like what happened with smart phone market with them and missing the whole party. cloud is just starting to take off and they are already there.
grimshawish
Banned
Problem with Forbes is I never know whats a paid article and what is from 'Forbes'.
I don't think they quite exist in the way people think.
I don't think they quite exist in the way people think.
Good point about China, I guess it's the growth market for everyone lol.
Indeed but I doubt that the margin will be higher than when they dealt with the middlemen, since after all they were the only game in town and controlled the market directly.
It's harder to "enforce" a monopoly when you're dealing directly with end users than when you deal with all distributors who are basically slaves to you will.
customer support is NOT free for MSFT's customers, it's actually VERY expensive.
They can't possibly make it cost more without making the market flee.
Windows update is another thing in my POV.
I don't have time right now but I can tell that the solutions provided now are not enough since there's some legal bindings that prevent data from getting in the cloud just like that.
The trend is there, no denying that. I'm not one to fight something as unmovable as gravity
We'll see, I doubt it's something that is in the same timeframe as what we're talking about.
Office rules the market because cloud solutions are still marginal.
their products are far more mature than you give them credit for.
MSFT is more entrenched in business culture though.
Cloud taking off is old news if you ask me.
They've correctly assessed the situation to not disappear overnight but it's still something to be warry.
Their Office product line is in a safer place than their OS business.
I don't see their OS product line as disappearing overnight but as the weakest link between the 2.
I think we can agree that they're not in a bad position but the gravvy train of Office is behind them.
MS is company without direction at all, Google and Apple are destroying it...their products have zero appeal...add in the worst CEO possible and it's a receipt for disaster.I mean charging 199$ for an operative system really?
I'm actually surprised there aren't more doom articles quite frankly...
I'm actually surprised there aren't more doom articles quite frankly...
I don't know...look at Oracle...
Yeah, Microsoft makes quality products but they just really can't connect with the market. Oracle on the other hand, if Java's any indication they're just completely FUBAR.
BrokenSymmetry
Member
Microsoft's cloud infrastructure (Microsoft Azure) is in fact pretty advanced. As a cloud service, it's only behind Amazon (Amazon Web Services), but way ahead of Google, Apple, Oracle, and Facebook.
http://www.forbes.com/
Is the actually from Forbes?
Can someone even navigate to it from the front page of Forbes.com or is it just a link to someone's Blog page and people are crediting it to Forbes?
Is the actually from Forbes?
Can someone even navigate to it from the front page of Forbes.com or is it just a link to someone's Blog page and people are crediting it to Forbes?
m.i.s.
Banned
Yes, when even a massive Windows cheerleader like Paul Thurrott considers MS in danger of becoming irrelevant in the consumer space, you know things are not as well as they might appear. ie Thurrott sees Mircrosoft in danger of becoming the next IBM - profitable in the business and enterprise space and invisible in the consumer sphere.
Psychotext
Member
I had to laugh, genuinely.
This "analysis" might have been well placed in 2006 or 2007... but utterly off base in the current climate. The division was turned around a long time ago and is looking very strong now.
Plus of course it completely ignores the value of the Xbox brand as a halo product for the whole of Microsoft to benefit from (admittedly this didn't work out so well at the start of the 360!).
This "analysis" might have been well placed in 2006 or 2007... but utterly off base in the current climate. The division was turned around a long time ago and is looking very strong now.
Plus of course it completely ignores the value of the Xbox brand as a halo product for the whole of Microsoft to benefit from (admittedly this didn't work out so well at the start of the 360!).
Forbes has contributers that are free to write articles for them, outside of their reporting and editorial staff. The idea is to get people from business or academia to write for them. They can be either paid or unpaid, but to be a contributer for Forbes you have to apply and go through an approval process.
This is the absolute worst case scenario, and I think the article is an exaggeration since it relies entirely on a uniform total failure of all of MS's products which, considering how many MS have, is unlikely for all of them to implode in such a fashion that is suggested. Whilst slow to move, the company is capable of adapting. Not all of their products will die off, even if some of them do.
But even if all of MS's markets don't collapse in on themselves, the company is facing some serious issues that they've failed to adequately address (mobile has been failure after failure, and the Surface/Windows 8/Windows RT has not made Windows more relevant in this day and age like MS had hoped), which could impact the Xbox, especially if the entertainment/Xbox division doesn't prove to shareholders that it's entirely self-sufficient.
But even if all of MS's markets don't collapse in on themselves, the company is facing some serious issues that they've failed to adequately address (mobile has been failure after failure, and the Surface/Windows 8/Windows RT has not made Windows more relevant in this day and age like MS had hoped), which could impact the Xbox, especially if the entertainment/Xbox division doesn't prove to shareholders that it's entirely self-sufficient.
I think it also depends on how deeply they tie Xbox down to Windows 8: if Windows 8 was coded to be a smart, versatile OS whose kernel can work just as well for a dedicated console as a computer or tablet then I don't think it'll be an issue, especially if they need to cover up its heritage for marketing reasons. If it's some jack-of-all-trades master-of-none thing that'd just slow down a console, yet they're forced to throw it on out of some misguided notion of unison with no real advantages... yeah, I think we're going to be seeing some very serious problems with the next Xbox.
Mr.Squirrel
Tom
Not upgrading to Windows 8 doesn't mean Microsoft didn't make money. Everytime you buy a piece of software from Microsoft, it comes with downgrade rights which essentially means you get the current version (Windows 8) as well as all other versions that's still supported. So when a company buys some computers with Windows XP, Vista, or 7, you're essentially paying for Windows 8 and you have a license for it even if you don't use it.
This guy is a 'contributor' (just like on places like Seeking Alpha) putting up a 'think piece', nothing more.
And while what he says isn't totally out of the realm of possibility some of his points and conclusions are ludicrous.
Barnes and Noble buying the Xbox division? Good grief.
I for one welcome our new Gizmondo and Philips CD-I overlords.
And while what he says isn't totally out of the realm of possibility some of his points and conclusions are ludicrous.
Barnes and Noble buying the Xbox division? Good grief.
I for one welcome our new Gizmondo and Philips CD-I overlords.
Mr.Squirrel
Tom
The proliferation of Windows in the backend assures Microsoft won't lose relevance any time soon. Companies (large and small) has such a huge investment in the Windows platform (Active Directory, SharePoint, Exchange, Office) that it'd be damn near impossible for that to shift any time soon.
If they can't make a profit off record selling numbers and millions of monthly subscriptions then why is anyone even in the gaming industry? If they're losing up to 750m then it sounds impossible to profit.
The AAA aspect actually DOES look to be a vain effort at this point, and Microsoft has escalated things given that I don't believe the PS3 was even supposed to have a GPU or 512 MB of RAM.
Of course, I suspect that were it not for Microsoft the PS3 would've crashed and burned entirely with the Wii dominating, which may or may not have been much good depending on what publishers/developers would've done. It seem plausible something like that would've either been MUCH healthier, or killed/stagnated the industry.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
I guffawed at selling the gaming division to B&N. It's factually incorrect to say it's currently losing money.
Edit: People need to stop attributing contributor posts to actual Forbes.
Edit: People need to stop attributing contributor posts to actual Forbes.
Psychotext
Member
They're making a profit. Where did you get that 750m figure from?
These are the last five years of figures (operating income) for E&D (Xbox... but also albatrosses like Zune, Kin, Windows Phone and more, some profitable, some not)
2008: $0.11bn
2009: $0.68bn
2010: $0.52bn
2011: $1.26bn
2012: $0.36bn