I am actually thinking it will. Looking at Zelda's attach rate (over 100% lol), the hype currently surrounding the Switch, and that the rumors point to a massive Switch restock around the 28th..
With CURRENT consoles it would need to hit a 50% attach rate, which seems high, but again given the current hype and the relatively small amount of available titles, it isn't unheard of. And I'm willing to bet that with consoles sold from the Apr 18 restock, it will be well above 50% attach rate.
It will have to sell more than 1.2M in it's opening weekend.
It's kind of cool to see Nintendo finally understand that proper marketing matters. They got lucky with the Wii, the thing was so unique and had such casual appeal it sold itself.
With the Switch they've been doing so many things right. Showing the Switch and Zelda on Fallon, clear marketing message, and then this. MK8D is going to be awesome, but everyone needs to know about it. This promo at Target means that every mom out there who shops at Target that week will be well aware of it (and have any kids they are bringing with them into the store begging for it).
The Wii version sold over 35 million units, I believe bundled copies were included. Now that's not to say the Switch approaches 100M units sold, but at some point I expect Mario Kart to get officially bundled in NA( holiday 2018 perhaps). I wouldn't be surprised if it approached 30M assuming the Switch maintains its sales momentum and hype over the next few years.
And as I said in my last post, the Wii version sold 35 million. Something between the 3ds and Wii sales seems reasonable. The Wii U version sold 8 million on a relatively paltry 13 million install base, so the series still has plenty of selling power assuming its on a console that also has selling power( which the 3ds and Wii had, the Switch appears to, and the Wii U didn't).
Here we go
Walking through Target doors always brings a little rush, but this time youre crossing a starting line! As you walk through, motion sensors fire up flashing lights and play Marios catchy theme song.
I agree actually. MK Wii did 30M, but on a console that also hit 100M. I responded to another post with a much more tempered 15M, but looking at MK sales historically, that might even be a tough go. Ultimately it depends on the popularity of the Switch. If we're looking at a 40M unit console.. 15M might be a tretch. If we're looking at a 60M+ console, 15M should be doable.