SpinningFrog
Member
I'm surprised that no one has commented on the fact that the DS is at 96 million units sold world wide.
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Nintendo Cuts Net Income Outlook on Stronger Yen
- Thread starter Parmenides
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MisterHero
Super Member
damn it US, why is Japan so economically valuable?
Psychotext
Member
40m. 96m vs 136m.Vinci said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
If 2008's numbers were to repeat, it would pass up GB+GBC by the end of this year. PS2 would then take until about mid-2010.jarrod said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Doing the same "If 2008 repeats" trick:jarrod said:
NES by the end of this year, though very close by the end of the third quarter.
GBA after Q3 2010.
PS1 after Q2 2011.
NES one shouldn't be too far off from actual, but clearly doing a straight line out for 2.5 years is going to be a bit more off one way or another.
Psychotext
Member
Yeah, there's a huge discussion on methods etc earlier on in the thread.1cesc said:
ViperVisor
Member
Printing Dollars is a problem Sony or MS would LOVE to have.
grandjedi6
Master of the Google Search
.Weisheit said:
NeoGAF redeemed?
grandjedi6
Master of the Google Search
Nintendo themselves. Dropping your forecasts by 33% means something went wrong somewhere.jarrod said:
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jarrod said:
No, the DS was the one who broke PS2's record in December.
schuelma said:
It would have to be, it does not make sense elsewhere since the Wii just fell short of breaking the holy grail of Dec sales figures (with the DS taking the title)
You know what would be funny, if Nintendo was conservatively lowering their numbers then when they do exceed them it just looks that much better.
ViperVisor
Member
grandjedi6 said:
That explains the 33% drop more or less.
grandjedi6
Master of the Google Search
ViperVisor said:
Not entirely though since Nintendo is also forecasting 1 million less Wiis to be sold. Analysts are going to be keeping a good eye on the January sales from each region to see where the weakness if originating from (likely Japan but there is a good chance its a global drop too).jarrod said:
I think there is definitely some short term concern in Japan. Wii Music didn't do anything for hardware and barely sold out its initial shipment. Holiday sales were way down and 2009 sales are getting dangerously close to 20K levels.
That said, Nintendo has a lot of cards to play- price drop, new colors, Motion +, and the biggest 3rd party games the console has seen.
I wonder if Nintendo is just going to ride things out until Wii Sports Resort or if they'll be aggressive and maybe do a bundle or price drop (of course maybe they can't be that flexible that quickly).
That said, Nintendo has a lot of cards to play- price drop, new colors, Motion +, and the biggest 3rd party games the console has seen.
I wonder if Nintendo is just going to ride things out until Wii Sports Resort or if they'll be aggressive and maybe do a bundle or price drop (of course maybe they can't be that flexible that quickly).
Psychotext
Member
Isn't that something like a 6% drop? I wouldn't be surprised if it happens since they should finally be able to supply enough to meet demand this year.grandjedi6 said:
schuelma said:
Japan could easily account for a million units over the year end/next few months. Nothing has really pushed Wii hardware for the entire period, and they might have been expecting to have Wii Sports Resort (or some other big hitter) out this fiscal year, but haven't managed it.
grandjedi6
Master of the Google Search
Me neither but either way the news is pretty dire. A global drop would signify the start of a downturn in the previously strong US and Europe markets while a Japan drop would be horrible news for the state of the Wii in Japan.schuelma said:
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schuelma said:
Do new colours even create momentum for consoles, historically speaking? I can see why it works for handhelds, since they are more than likely bought by individuals inside the home and they are more personalised devices than a platform shared by everyone in the family.
Not trying to disprove you, I'm just curious.
Interesting articles, but I'd take them with a giant grain of salt. As many others here have pointed out, such a decrease is expected given the strength of the yen and the decrease in demand in Japan. I'm guessing Nintendo is just being conservative - as they've always been. Also, it's clear the economic problems facing the entire world at this point aren't going anywhere, and Nintendo surely understands those problems may eventually affect sales of their system(s).
I'm actually amazed NOJ has not yet offered a bundle, new color or even price drop for the Wii. Numbers have been down for some time, yet they're sticking to their guns. That alone tells me either they aren't worried or they're dumber than they seem, and I kind of dount it's the latter.
I also wonder if they're against offering new colors or a price drop since the same would be expected in other territories? Although, they've offered up tons of color options in the past that were never released outside of Japan, so that doesn't make sense either.
I'd say if the numbers don't turn around soon, and especially if they don't turn around after Wii Sports Resort, something will be done to rectify the situation in Japan.
The most interesting discussion missing from the articles posted here is what this means for Sony and MS. I mean, really, if all of this means bad news for Nintendo and the Wii - and the Wii still stomps the PS3 and X360 when it comes to weekly/monthly/yearly sales in Japan - what does that mean for Sony and MS?
I'm actually amazed NOJ has not yet offered a bundle, new color or even price drop for the Wii. Numbers have been down for some time, yet they're sticking to their guns. That alone tells me either they aren't worried or they're dumber than they seem, and I kind of dount it's the latter.
I also wonder if they're against offering new colors or a price drop since the same would be expected in other territories? Although, they've offered up tons of color options in the past that were never released outside of Japan, so that doesn't make sense either.
I'd say if the numbers don't turn around soon, and especially if they don't turn around after Wii Sports Resort, something will be done to rectify the situation in Japan.
The most interesting discussion missing from the articles posted here is what this means for Sony and MS. I mean, really, if all of this means bad news for Nintendo and the Wii - and the Wii still stomps the PS3 and X360 when it comes to weekly/monthly/yearly sales in Japan - what does that mean for Sony and MS?
grandjedi6
Master of the Google Search
If supply had increased to finally meet demand we wouldn't be seeing a decrease in sale forecasts. Instead its likely the reverse: the demand has dropped to finally meet the supply.Psychotext said:
I actually hope the decreased demand for the Wii in Japan gets Nintendo to open up a bit more this year. I mean, Wii Sports Resort should be out this spring, yet when was the last time the Japanese public (or the public anywhere in the world) heard about it? It's kind of hard to build hype for a product few know exists...
schuelma said:
But what if when they predicted in October the sales for the rest of the year, there were other factors assumed to be part of the Japanese sales.
Like for example Wii Sports Resort coming out March 1st. Which maybe they've slipped.
I think it's highly unlikely that they're scaling back their US/Rest Of World predictions even slightly, considering all the information we have up to now.
Psychotext
Member
Not necessarily. Let's look at a possibility... Start with an initial pool of 2m buyers who are waiting to get their hands on the machine. 500k new buyers (demand) get added to the pool a month and maybe they lose 100k buyers who get sick of waiting. Assume 1m Wiis a month supply.grandjedi6 said:
Month 1: 2.0m waiting, 1m sold.
Month 2: 1.4m waiting, 1m sold.
Month 3: 0.8m waiting, 1m sold.
Month 4: 0.2m waiting, 700k sold.
Month 5: 0m waiting, 500k sold.
It's an extremely simplified example, but you see that demand didn't drop as such... you just got rid of everyone that was waiting.
[Edit - My maths is broken, but you get the idea! :lol ]
grandjedi6
Master of the Google Search
The 1 million drop coming soley from Japan would be pretty dire news for the Wii's state in Japan. And I highly doubt Wii Sports Resort was planned to release this quarter, let alone for its theoretical delay to cause this drop in sales. Unless of course you are suggesting Wii Sports Resorts was going to cause an additional 1 million sales in less than a month in Japanswerve said:
Decreasing production due to the economy would still be representative of a drop in demand.jarrod said:
grandjedi6 said:
It was a theoretical example, as is this entire discussion seeing as we're not involved in the financial planning.
It's absolutely not hard to imagine that, had they had Resort ready to go in March, they couldn't have sold 200,000 units a week. And with the associated marketing build up, sold more. I'm not saying it's what happened. I'm saying we have absolutely no more reason to disregard such a theory than the idea that it's due to 'something big going wrong'.
Not if they were increasing capacity in order to sell more units in regions where it's no longer financially sensible to sell the units. Like the Eurozone right now. Currently, a European Wii gets Nintendo significantly less money than they were expecting. So why spend money to sell more of them whilst the exchange rate is still fucked?
There are numerous possibilities about what's gone on, many of them not related to Wii's popularity. Jumping to negative conclusions is natural for the market, but then, that's exactly when smart investors take a punt on something.