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[The perfect Dark]

Not that it wasn't known, but putting up that ordered list of hardware numbers really highlights Nitnendo's trend for consoles.

Other than the Wii's massive success with 'non-gamers', every successive console has performed worse than the predecessor. It's not a good look.

Nope, because...you know...there's the Wii which was a sales monster. non-gamers don't exist. You are a gamer or you are not a gamer. Everything can happen..maybe the next console will be even more successful than the Wii? Who knows?

 

[Glass Joe]

It's weird that the Game Boy Color isn't seen as its own platform. It had you buy new hardware for new games, after all. Games with color was a major step up I wonder what the breakdown is between GB and GBC hardware. Yeah it was backward compatible, but that isn't terribly unique. I'm sure it would make the Game Boy years look much less impressive.

I think it's weird, almost like if years from now, Nintendo just grouped the Wii U in with the Wii. New hardware for new games, HD is a major step up, but still backward compatible.

Outliers are frequently removed in data analysis to get a better picture of how things are trending.

The OG Xbox wasn't a sales darling either (near Gamecube) and the Xbox One looks to be struggling in comparison to PS4. So do you dismiss the 360 as an outlier? Yes I know, only 3 data points, but Nintendo's the only one here with this type of longevity. Dismissing the Wii as an outlier, I get it, but those franchise sales in the Wii era say to me it was more than just soccer moms playing Wii Sports once. Adding in the SNES, Cube, and N64 TOGETHER gets you approximately Wii numbers, so that's quite the outlier.

 

[Lionel Richie]

"In statistics, an outlier is an observation point that is distant from other observations."

The Wii is the very definition of outlier.

Only if you disregard their handhelds, which I haven't heard a good reason for doing so. It's part of their hardware output, it's a gaming device and it shares most of the competitors.

 

[Ushay]

Wii domination last gen, how the mighty have fallen

 

[blu]

The Wii U sales are perfectly normal?

Yes.

What will the next system sell? And dear god...the system after that?

As long as nitendo continue to stay in the black, anything may happen. Welcome to business 101.

 

[sörine]

It's weird that the Game Boy Color isn't seen as its own platform. It had you buy new hardware for new games, after all. Games with color was a major step up I wonder what the breakdown is between GB and GBC hardware. Yeah it was backward compatible, but that isn't terribly unique. I'm sure it would make the Game Boy years look much less impressive.

I think it's weird, almost like if years from now, Nintendo just grouped the Wii U in with the Wii. New hardware for new games, HD is a major step up, but still backward compatible.

The difference might be that there are GBC games themselves that are also backwards compatible. There aren't any Wii U games you can play on your Wii.

In terms of hardware progression GB/GBC, DS/DSi and GC/Wii are all pretty similar. 3DS/N3DS might be comparable too, yet out of them all Nintendo only considers GC/Wii as separate platforms.

 

[Jamix012]

If the PS4 ends up shipping 100 million units, the standard error of Sony's 4 console generations is a little over 10% of the mean.

With the Wii included, the standard error of Nintendo's console shipments is over 25% of the mean. I think there's a little bit more reasonable justification in omitting the data point.

That's a pretty huge if.

 

[Glass Joe]

The difference might be that there are GBC games themselves that are also backwards compatible. There aren't any Wii U games you can play on your Wii.

In terms of hardware progression GB/GBC, DS/DSi and GC/Wii are all pretty similar. 3DS/N3DS might be comparable too, yet out of them all Nintendo only considers GC/Wii as separate platforms.

oooooh. Come to think of it, that is true, eh? I always remembered GBC having its own unique library, I either forgot or never knew that they could be played in black & white. My bad, I didn't own a color or care about handhelds much back in the day.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't think it's fair, considering the PSP was fairly successful from both a hardware and software perspective. It wasn't a DS, sure, but it was successful. Removing it arbitrarily to make a point isn't fair to Sony, who put money and effort behind it to make it successful. It's not like they lucked into it. They duffed the market with the Vita, which doesn't take away from the PSP's relative success.

I don't agree with that. First, I contend that a statement like, "Sony can sell handhelds," (simply the inverse of your statement) when they have only one successful actual handheld is aggressive. But I'm not so sure they didn't totally luck into it. Their platform was resuscitated in one market largely by one software title. They lost it by virtue of the fact that someone else could have it and the entire enterprise fell apart. Software sales were what they were, especially outside of Japan. But this is really irrelevant.

Your original statement, which obviously was aimed at blunting the impact of the "look at the trend" Nintendo graph, can reasonably be objected to just denotatively. Sony has two examples of handhelds on the market and one failed. Nintendo has 6 consoles. It's not reasonable to remove the outlier in one scenario but not in the other?

I think your comment is glib and sarcastic for pretty much no reason.

 

[SeanR1221]

Yes.


As long as nitendo continue to stay in the black, anything may happen. Welcome to business 101.

I'm sure Nintendo would be thrilled with a system doing worse than the Wii U.

 

[blu]

I'm sure Nintendo would be thrilled with a system doing worse than the Wii U.

I'm sure we can debate fictional scenarios till the cows come home. Particularly if we disregard each other's posts' content.

 

[SeanR1221]

I'm sure we can debate fictional scenarios till the cows come how. Particularly if we disregard each other's posts content.

Is it really a agree to disagree moment?

Im actually curious how Nintendo's terrible Wii U sales are not only expected, but lower sales than this for the next console is business 101.

 

[ArchedThunder]

Only if you disregard their handhelds, which I haven't heard a good reason for doing so. It's part of their hardware output, it's a gaming device and it shares most of the competitors.

The handheld and console markets are completely different. But even on the handheld front they have a clear decline.

oooooh. Come to think of it, that is true, eh? I always remembered GBC having its own unique library, I either forgot or never knew that they could be played in black & white. My bad, I didn't own a color or care about handhelds much back in the day.

They can't. There are plenty of Game Boy games with color when played on GBC, but actual GBC games can't be played on the original system.

 

[blu]

Is it really a agree to disagree moment?

Nah. We're way into 'lalalalala I'm not listening' territory.

Im actually curious how Nintendo's terrible Wii U sales are not only expected, but lower sales than this for the next console is business 101.

QED.

 

[Glass Joe]

They can't. There are plenty of Game Boy games with color when played on GBC, but actual GBC games can't be played on the original system.

Well, damn. Thanks. So, sonsidering the GB and GBC line is counted as one (weird) and that generation was soo long (1989-2003), that's a factor to consider when looking at the handheld bar graph.

 

[sörine]

They can't. There are plenty of Game Boy games with color when played on GBC, but actual GBC games can't be played on the original system.

No, there are cross-compatible games branded as both GB or GBC games.

At the least any degree of cross or forwards compatibility is something we don't see with Wii/Wii U. We see it with GB/GBC and DS/DSi though.

 

[SeanR1221]

Nah. We're way into 'lalalalala I'm not listening' territory.


QED.

I think you're the one in LALA moment, bud.

I like my thoughts and beliefs to be backed up. But if you say this is normal, hey, more power to you.

I guess things like


http://www.computerandvideogames.co...-accepts-blame-for-disappointing-wii-u-sales/

Are just expected stories.

 

[And_Gignac]

I like how people disregarding handhelds in this fantasious, magical-statistics fueled scenario of Nintendo's market shrinking trend. It is obvious people disregard handhelds as "different" (they are not) just because Nintendo dominates that market.

Also, the Wii is not an outlier, just like the NES isn't. Nintendo is just a very hit or miss company with their home consoles. Even then, none of their home consoles can be considered a financial failure outside of the Wii U (well and the virtual boy but lol).

 

[klier]

Those Wii software sales.

THOSE WII SOFTWARE SALES.

Mario Kart Wii is a monster. Best selling game ever?

 

[ArchedThunder]

No, there are cross-compatible games branded as both GB or GBC games.

At the least any degree of cross or forwards compatibility is something we don't see with Wii/Wii U. We see it with GB/GBC and DS/DSi though.

They were cross branded, but they were just GameBoy games. I know a lot of people get confused because of things like this:

But the cartridge is just a GameBoy cartridge

GameBoy Color cartridges where actually distinctly different and the games used more colors than they could set for a regular GameBoy game played on a Color.

 

[SeanR1221]

They were cross branded, but they were just GameBoy games. I know a lot of people get confused because of things like this:

But the cartridge is just a GameBoy cartridge

GameBoy Color cartridges where actually distinctly different and the games used more colors than they could set for a regular GameBoy game played on a Color.

Yeah its more of a 3DS and New 3DS situation. Majority of games will work for both, some games will run better on New 3DS and the New 3DS will have some games that only run on its hardware.

 

[marc^o^]

Looking at the bright side, there is still potential to transition a larger part of Wii owners. Wii U is too expensive for families who have lots of options. The console price will need to be reajusted to reach mass market level. I believe the ever evolving Mario Kart 8 could find a place in each MK wii family, if the entry price allowed it.

In terms of execution, Nintendo managed to solve Wii U's image issue, current owners and the press are backing it ; and it will only get better with next year hits.

A price cut is mandatory to grow the installed base significantly. So far Nintendo prioritized short term profits/stopping losing money.

Next E3 will be fascinating in terms of discovering how Nintendo will handle their future.

 

[Lionel Richie]

The handheld and console markets are completely different. But even on the handheld front they have a clear decline.

It isn't. Well, sure, there are differences, but not enough to consider it a separate market altogether. And to be a "clear decline" there, you'd have to consider the DS an outlier too and, just as it is with the Wii, doing so to disregard whatever factors were in play that caused said deviation is not a very objective way of viewing things.

Plus, when you only consider the percentage of the market, it's fair to say the 3DS gained even more ground, as the closest competitor sold proportionally less compared to it than in the previous generation. No decline there.

 

[sörine]

They were cross branded, but they were just GameBoy games. I know a lot of people get confused because of things like this:

But the cartridge is just a GameBoy cartridge

GameBoy Color cartridges where actually distinctly different and the games used more colors than they could set for a regular GameBoy game played on a Color.

Nintendo used different cartridge casings to help differentiate GBC only from GB/GBC cross compatible games yes. But in both these cases the carts house GBC specific code and the branding itself indicates a more "mixed" platform orientation. Besides, Nintendo defines Pokémon GS as a GBC game specifically so why wouldn't it be? Why are you defining it otherwise?

 

[Madao]

It's time that's the important factor, not the control scheme.

You're just arbitrarily drawing lines so that you're right. TP released on two consoles At the same time (with a couple of weeks of seperation). OoT released on 2 consoles with a 13 year gap between releases. At the time OoT released , exactly 0 people decided not to buy it (i.e. in the late 1990s) because 13 years down the line, they knew a handheld version would exist. This obviously isn't the case for a game releasing on two differente consoles at the same time.

Obviously the sales should be combined between the two; the most obvious comparision is pokemon. No-one records pokemon versions seperately, because the two versions release at the same, whereas later remakes are counted seperately by the same logic.

it doesn't matter how long the gap is if the game is the same. what about all those multiplatform releases where the PC version comes later? should those be excluded because they didn't release at the same time?

concerning the Pokemon remakes, they're not the same game anymore since the games are built on completely new engines. they are more often grouped with the gen they released on than with their originals because they're more similar to the gen they're on (example: Gen 4 would make up the combined sales of DP, Platinum and HGSS since all use the same engine. the original GS aren't gouped with HGSS as much as HGSS gets grouped with DPPt) and that's why it makes sense to count them separate.

besides, Nintendo didn't combine the sales of any game except dual Pokemon releases. not even Wario Land 2 is combining the B/W release with the GBC release and that game is literally just the same game with colors (no enhancements beyond that iirc)

 

[ArchedThunder]

Looking at the bright side, there is still potential to transition a larger part of Wii owners. Wii U is too expensive for families who have lots of options. The console price will need to be reajusted to reach mass market level. I believe the ever evolving Mario Kart 8 could find a place in each MK wii family, if the entry price allowed it.

In terms of execution, Nintendo managed to solve Wii U's image issue, current owners and the press are backing it ; and it will only get better with next year hits.

A price cut is mandatory to grow the installed base significantly. So far Nintendo prioritized short term profits/stopping losing money.

Next E3 will be fascinating in terms of discovering how Nintendo will handle their future.

The problem is that Iwata is firm in his belief that a price drop wont help the system, unless they lose the slow YoY growth they've been getting for the system they might not even bother with any price drops to try and make the largest profit for each system sold when they should be cutting the price as low as possible without taking a hit. It seems like they truly believe the only way to turn the system around is to throw as many games as possible at it but without the supplementary price drop to get more people to buy the system so more people buy the software.

It isn't. Well, sure, there are differences, but not enough to consider it a separate market altogether. And to be a "clear decline" there, you'd have to consider the DS an outlier too and, just as it is with the Wii, doing so to disregard whatever factors were in play that caused said deviation is not a very objective way of viewing things.

Plus, when you only consider the percentage of the market, it's fair to say the 3DS gained even more ground, as the closest competitor sold proportionally less compared to it than in the previous generation. No decline there.

Except despite the loss of any competition from Sony in the handheld space the 3DS is still doing worse than the GBA and substantially worse than the DS and the picture is even more grim when you look at software sales.

 

[Celine]

Man I refuse to believe Star Wars Rogue Squadron 2/3 sold less than 1 million copies.

That just hurts.

Why would RS2 and RS3 be included when they were not published by Nintendo?
RS2 surely sold more than 1M though.

 

[Madao]

The problem is that Iwata is firm in his belief that a price drop wont help the system, unless they lose the slow YoY growth they've been getting for the system they might not even bother with any price drops to try and make the largest profit for each system sold when they should be cutting the price as low as possible without taking a hit. It seems like they truly believe the only way to turn the system around is to throw as many games as possible at it but without the supplementary price drop to get more people to buy the system so more people buy the software.

they could drop the price without losing money but they also refuse to make a no gamepad SKU.

 

[Lionel Richie]

Except despite the loss of any competition from Sony in the handheld space the 3DS is still doing worse than the GBA and substantially worse than the DS and the picture is even more grim when you look at software sales.

But you shouldn't compare a product only with its past iterations, but instead with the current ones from the competition as well. More than sheer numbers, it's about how much of the market you own.

Regarding tie ratio, I don't see a trend. I see an oscillation caused by various factors that may not paint a "grim picture".

 

[Glass Joe]

they could drop the price without losing money but they also refuse to make a no gamepad SKU.

I honestly think that ship has sailed. Trying to make the existing library compatible with the Pro only (their stuff and 3rd parties) would be labor intensive (not "free") and would likely just result in even more brand confusion in the end.

 

[JoeM86]

they could drop the price without losing money but they also refuse to make a no gamepad SKU.

How can they drop the price without losing money? You do know that mathematically does not work, right? The reason Nintendo had its first ever fiscal loss was because they sold the 3DS at a loss to spur sales and it worked. That damaged their bottomline ridiculously and they're only just starting to recover.

They also refuse to make a no-GamePad SKU because the GamePad is entrenched in the Wii U. It's needed to operate it fully. So many games require it, too.

 

[Glass Joe]

How can they drop the price without losing money? You do know that mathematically does not work, right?

They also refuse to make a no-GamePad SKU because the GamePad is entrenched in the Wii U. It's needed to operate it fully. So many games require it, too.

He means drop the price by dropping the gamepad. But as you and I just said, easier said than done.

 

[JoeM86]

He means drop the price by dropping the gamepad. But as you and I just said, easier said than done.

Ah right, makes sense.

Indeed it would be. Most people who say it haven't really had much experience with the Wii U and think it's superfluous and easy to remove.

 

[ArchedThunder]

How can they drop the price without losing money? You do know that mathematically does not work, right? The reason Nintendo had its first ever fiscal loss was because they sold the 3DS at a loss to spur sales and it worked. That damaged their bottomline ridiculously and they're only just starting to recover.

They also refuse to make a no-GamePad SKU because the GamePad is entrenched in the Wii U. It's needed to operate it fully. So many games require it, too.

The Wii U came out at $300 dollars at launch for it's lowest memory model and the closest thing we've gotten to a price drop is them phasing the lower model out and putting the higher model at that price. The thing is the difference between the two in manufacturing costs is nowhere near $50 dollars, the small difference in memory is almost nothing. If they still can't get the price of the system lower than $300 2+ years into its life with out taking a large hit on each system then they made some huge mistakes with the contracts they signed for the parts.

 

[Azuran]

Kid Icarus Uprising is in that list.

I'm pleased.

 

[Violet_0]

I'm sure Nintendo would be thrilled with a system doing worse than the Wii U.

I know not what the next console war will be fought with, but the one after it will be fought with sticks and stones

 

[ArchedThunder]

I know not what the next console war will be fought with, but the one after it will be fought with sticks and stones

The graphics on sticks are shit, stones are the best there is!

 

[Madao]

Ah right, makes sense.

Indeed it would be. Most people who say it haven't really had much experience with the Wii U and think it's superfluous and easy to remove.

what makes you think i haven't played the Wii U enough? have you seen me play?

i've got like 12 retail games + some eShop games and i've put hundreds of hours combined between all games and i always pick the Pro controller when given the option. i don't find that it adds anything to the games where you can use many controllers. the few games that require it, i find myself wishing i could use the Pro instead even if it means removing some puzzles.
i even bought the high capacity battery because it was annoying enough for the thing to run out of power so quickly. i also hate when i have to play with it since the screen looks so shitty compared to my TV (i'm pretty sure anyone who says the gamepad looks good has a shitty TV or shitty calibration)

making the gamepad optional in the system menu is just a matter of patching the menu. they've already done it many times. the last area left is the system settings area where you still need it to do anything.
making it optional doesn't hurt any of the bigger system sellers. it only affects some minor games and games that sold few units. most are even out of print now (Game & Wario)

it's true that it's getting too late to remove the gamepad to make any difference but it was an option at least 1 year ago when less things used it. Amiibo pretty much guarantees that they'll never make a no-gamepad SKU but the thing is still a big obstacle for price drops. Microsoft could remove Kinect and drop the price a lot since they abandoned the thing at the right time. Nintendo didn't so they're now stuck and can't drop prices that easily.

 

[Refreshment.01]

Looking at the bright side, there is still potential to transition a larger part of Wii owners. Wii U is too expensive for families who have lots of options. The console price will need to be reajusted to reach mass market level. I believe the ever evolving Mario Kart 8 could find a place in each MK wii family, if the entry price allowed it.

In terms of execution, Nintendo managed to solve Wii U's image issue, current owners and the press are backing it ; and it will only get better with next year hits.

A price cut is mandatory to grow the installed base significantly. So far Nintendo prioritized short term profits/stopping losing money.

Next E3 will be fascinating in terms of discovering how Nintendo will handle their future.

Price is not the problem.

When the price of the device is lowered, the Nintendo faithful that found the system too expensive or the one that was happy with the 3DS will jump over. And that's it.

They won't reach other audiences beyond the Nintendo core because the Wii U is of no interest to them. Europe saw liquidation prices in many stores and not even like that the console moved significantly. Do you remember the negative shipments in some of the quarters?

they could drop the price without losing money but they also refuse to make a no gamepad SKU.

Gamepad less SKU will introduce another set of problems, people that sugegst this are only looking at it superficially. Not to mention the variety of upcoming games that will use the Gamepad and of course whatever other plans Nintendo might have with AMiibo.

Price is not the biggest problem with the Wii U.

 

[LocalE]

The graphics on sticks are shit, stones are the best there is!

And here we can tell who actually knows shit about graphics technology
101 bitch.
You need sticks and stones to make graphics. Noob.
Learn something about architectures in the new fuckin' millennium. Geez.

 

[Celine]

Frankly I find the hardware talk very boring.
Software figures are much more interesting and that s because Nintendo is a very peculiar case to analyze:

1) it covera a time span that almost fit the entire history of console gaming.

2) it shows the influence (good or bad) which platform success (or lack of) have on platform holder software sales.

3) Of course it rappresented both home amd handheld consoles.

4) by Nintendo nature many games are genre kings (there are many best selling game in genre xxx there) so they are good case of study of genre life cycle.

5) at the same time Nintendo have many 15-25 years old franchises which are still relevant (to different degree) nowadays.


6) there are games whose genre become niche and aren t produced anymore because ROI isn t good enough.

7) there are a few games which became a phenomenon that literaly pushed hardware sales (first Pokemon is by far the best example).

8) Most Nintendo games do not mesh with the dominant blockbuster model of the last decade (high priority on "simple" gameplay and a very low focus on cinematics elements) which is very interesting since I believe that being a platform holder helped to insulate Nintendo from the outer trends.

9) Nintendo is perceived as a very japanese company yet their characters still have often worldwide appeal.

 

[DoktorEvil]

I'm not surprised Other M was not on that list.

What I am surprised is at the numbers for Metroid games.

No game broke 3 Mil units?

 

[AniHawk]

I don't agree with that. First, I contend that a statement like, "Sony can sell handhelds," (simply the inverse of your statement) when they have only one successful actual handheld is aggressive. But I'm not so sure they didn't totally luck into it. Their platform was resuscitated in one market largely by one software title. They lost it by virtue of the fact that someone else could have it and the entire enterprise fell apart. Software sales were what they were, especially outside of Japan. But this is really irrelevant.

Your original statement, which obviously was aimed at blunting the impact of the "look at the trend" Nintendo graph, can reasonably be objected to just denotatively. Sony has two examples of handhelds on the market and one failed. Nintendo has 6 consoles. It's not reasonable to remove the outlier in one scenario but not in the other?

I think your comment is glib and sarcastic for pretty much no reason.

i think the idea that 'aha it's an outlier!' is fairly unrealistic when it points to years upon years of various things happening all at once. i might agree with it though, if the market showed continued growth or at the very least, stagnation, all around. this doesn't seem to be the case though. for the first time really ever, nintendo's handheld will sell significantly worse than the previous one in roughly the same amount of time. for the first time in decades, japan will not manage to sell 40 million units of hardware in a single generation. nintendo's console success with the wii doesn't seem like an isolated incident, but more of something that was part of a final spike in the video game market for traditional hardware.

 

[Celine]

nintendo's console success with the wii doesn't seem like an isolated incident, but more of something that was part of a final spike in the video game market for traditional hardware.

That s something I ve more or less said to a friend a few hours ago.
Wii could be seen as the last mainstream home console dominated by "arcade-ish"/"pick up and play" games (I m speaking only about what could be considered traditional console gaming).

 

[Raistlin]

Nope, because...you know...there's the Wii which was a sales monster. non-gamers don't exist. You are a gamer or you are not a gamer. Everything can happen..maybe the next console will be even more successful than the Wii? Who knows?

Sure it could be.

However we have 6 data points. Other than that single anomaly, the consistent trend is down. I'm not saying 'Nintendo is dead', but any objective viewer would find that trend troubling. There's a reason Nintendo is looking to expand outside of the gaming market. They can't maintain their size on the hope for another anomaly - that's not how business are run.

 

[KePoW]

I'm not surprised Other M was not on that list.

What I am surprised is at the numbers for Metroid games.

No game broke 3 Mil units?

Metroid has never been super popular with the masses

 

[Memory]

Metroid has never been super popular with the masses

Don't let the "Metroid will save Wii U" or the " Nintendo hates money" crowd catch you say that.

 

[Celine]

Good work Celine, thanks for posting.

ps: I think you missed the updated Pokemon Emerald number (7.06m) Is the same source of the updated top 5 Gamecube/GBA until march 2012.

I just checked and 7.06M was given for Pokemon Platinum.

 

[Popnbake]

Looking at the bright side, there is still potential to transition a larger part of Wii owners. Wii U is too expensive for families who have lots of options. The console price will need to be reajusted to reach mass market level. I believe the ever evolving Mario Kart 8 could find a place in each MK wii family, if the entry price allowed it.

In terms of execution, Nintendo managed to solve Wii U's image issue, current owners and the press are backing it ; and it will only get better with next year hits.

A price cut is mandatory to grow the installed base significantly. So far Nintendo prioritized short term profits/stopping losing money.

Next E3 will be fascinating in terms of discovering how Nintendo will handle their future.

I think MK and Smash was already the big pull for those owners.

From the Wii chart, Mario Party 8 went from selling 8.85 million to 3 million in the next installment. Zelda went from 7 million to 3.6 million.

Those two along with perhaps Mario Maker are looking to be the Wii U titles that you can expect strong sales for in 2015 so it may not be a better year for them in terms of growing the install base.

Having another price cut doesn't seem to be an ideal answer unless it gets in the cheaper than $200 territory.

 

[Miles X]

Would like to see total systems sold per year (Handheld, console and combined) since they started.

Any data going back before 1998?