It will maybe sell as much as the Wii U by the end of it's life and that's being very generous on my part. Though, again, obviously price is the determining factor. If it costs as much as the Wii U did at launch, it will never come close to touching Wii U's sales numbers, if it costs somewhere around what the 2DS does right now, it MIGHT MIGHT MIGHT be able to outsell the Wii U's lifetime sales, but Nintendo has garnered a lot of ill will from Wii U customers feeling incredibly burnt over the last 5 years and are going to need to pull some kind of rabbit out of their hat to win those people back.
I legitimately can't understand how anyone can look at this and think this is another Wii U. Everything about the Wii U was completely bungled. The name, the marketing, the price, the launch lineup, the timing, an unnecessary gimmick that didn't benefit many of its games in a meaningful way, and a weak reveal.
This has a good, snappy name, a legitimate hook that people are pretty warm to, and some launch/early games that seem to be exactly what the people want (Zelda was the talk of E3, 3D Mario is always a big deal, and Splatoon was a
huuuuuge success - the tweet confirming it in Japanese has as many retweets as the system reveal trailer from NOA!). The video statistics show the marketing is doing its job. Price is the only thing up in the air now but reports seem to suggest it should be reasonable.
Especially since this is succeeding the 3DS as well which did 10 million a year on average.
Like come on. I can get being conservative but this thing beating the Wii U in its first year is entirely doable and probably even realistic.