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[Regret Upon Approval]

I say Bloodborne will sale over 3 million in it's first year. People underestimate just how large a following souls games has.

I think people tend to overestimate how average consumers make connections.

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/211880/call-of-duty-dropped-from-modern-warfare-2/
http://www.vg247.com/2009/06/24/modern-warfare-2-loses-brand-awareness-without-cod-name/

Dropping "Call of Duty" from "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2" dropped familiarity.
That is something head scratching since it seems like it should be obvious what franchise it was a part of without the CoD name.

The connection between Souls and Bloodborne is even less overt.
Most people are likely unaware of Miyazaki or even the studio, From, despite it seeming obvious from an online forum perspective.

 

[Loakum]

Big Souls fan myself, but I think Dark Souls is still sitting at under 3 million units sold despite being released on 3 platforms and being heavily discounted on PC numerous times.

Dark Souls 2 was kind of a letdown. Bloodborne has enormous hype ahead of it's release.

 

[Chezzymann]

Wonderful 101 is not a high hurdle to clear, but there is an enormous gap between "Wonderful 101 sales" and "good sales." I think it's likely Splatoon will best W101, but I think it's very unlikely it will get very close to "good sales" as well.

Yeah, I'd be very surprised if it even sells close to a million worldwide.

 

[NateDrake]

Wonderful 101 is not a high hurdle to clear, but there is an enormous gap between "Wonderful 101 sales" and "good sales." I think it's likely Splatoon will best W101, but I think it's very unlikely it will get very close to "good sales" as well.

Kind of sounds like you are expecting Bayonetta 2 type sales of Splatoon.

 

[Plinko]

5 shooters in the top 10 for the year.

Le sigh.

Also, LOL at people doubting Bloodborne. That is going to be this year's surprise hit.

 

[samar11]

I don't know if Sony will reduce the PS4 price, I know they are close with Xbox one in NA, but worldwide they almost double xbox sales.

 

[KingSnake]

Wii U had the best selling month without price cuts and special bundles. Even more, they had some additional things selling on top of that, like Amiibo and Gamecube adapter and so on. It's still dead, but at list I think Nintendo is making money out of it (with MK8, SSB and Amiibo selling on the back of it). Starting with January we could consider Amiibo selling also on the back of the new 3ds. Is the NFC adapter for the old 3ds officially announced in US?

 

[RespectThySole]

Dark Souls 2 was kind of a letdown. Bloodborne has enormous hype ahead of it's release.

He's likely referring to Dark Souls 1 not 2.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

The Order 1886 will be released in February.

I know, but its commercial success will carry over into March and it'll likely take best selling game of that month too.

There's precious little in the way of competition and as much as we'd like to fool ourselves, BB won't present much of a challenge.

100k seller. At best...

 

[Loakum]

I think people tend to overestimate how average consumers make connections.

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/211880/call-of-duty-dropped-from-modern-warfare-2/
http://www.vg247.com/2009/06/24/modern-warfare-2-loses-brand-awareness-without-cod-name/

Dropping "Call of Duty" from "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2" dropped familiarity.
That is something head scratching since it seems like it should be obvious what franchise it was a part of without the CoD name.

The connection between Souls and Bloodborne is even less overt.
Most people are likely unaware of Miyazaki or even the studio, From, despite it seeming obvious from an online forum perspective.

That's an good read. We'll see if Bloodborne will suffer the same fate. I have to say, I doubt it.

 

[Kusagari]

I have a feeling Bloodborne will reach a larger audience than past Souls games.

 

[Mushroomer25]

Bloodborne will be the best selling game in March.

Battlefield Hardline releases that month. Might want to adjust that prediction before you put any money on it.

 

[Gonzo The Great]

Wii U sales are still abysmal, but at least they went up. Temporarily, that is. The biggest game they have for Q1/Q2 is Mario Party 10, and that's not going to cut it.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

Oh yeah, definitely.

It's not like PS4 is going to outsell Xbox One for the next 9 months again in US, or the rest of the world forever.

Come the holiday, expect the crazy deals to start again.

I don't know anyone in the right mind who would buy an Xbox One now with the price flip-flopping literally month by month.

It shows absolutely no confidence in the product if you constantly have to attach special promotions or price cuts or free trips to the moon for the console to shift off shelves.

Ridiculous.

MS is clearly focusing on the US market, I doubt that they planned on being where they are at this stage of the game though.

 

[Aquamarine]

Wii U sales are still abysmal, but at least they went up.

that's pretty much the narrative you could say about wii u sales all year long

 

[jblank83]

You're looking at it completely wrong. It's measured by actual months, the previous best for WiiU was 481k last December, not 900k.

900k was its first 6 weeks, not a 4 week total, and the 425k was its first 1 week on the market. If its best month was last year at approx 500k, there must have been a huge dropoff after its first week in 2012, then resupply shortly after.

 

[kyser73]

I have a feeling Bloodborne will reach a larger audience than past Souls games.

I have the same feeling.

I also have a feeling that within a month there will be a lot of copies in trade-in.

 

[gigantor21]

5 shooters in the top 10 for the year.

Le sigh.

Also, LOL at people doubting Bloodborne. That is going to be this year's surprise hit.

Would it really be a surprise, though? A heavily promoted PS4 exclusive from the Dark Souls studio? It would be more surprising if it wasn't a hit IMO.

 

[Percy]

Bloodborne will bomb. There's no way around that I think. Niche game on a newish console. It doesn't stand a chance.

You should probably start prepping some damage control posts for March NPD now.

Anyone that seriously believes Bloodborne won't do good business is kidding themselves badly.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I think people tend to overestimate how average consumers make connections.

Dropping "Call of Duty" from "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2" dropped familiarity.
That is something head scratching since it seems like it should be obvious what franchise it was a part of without the CoD name.

The connection between Souls and Bloodborne is even less overt.
Most people are likely unaware of Miyazaki or even the studio, From, despite it seeming obvious from an online forum perspective.

I don't think the type of following the Souls games have really draw as much from the average consumer so much as the enthusiast set who are probably aware of the director/studio pedigree.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

I'm hungry, where are the pies?

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

$299 by end of this year for Sony?

Highly unlikely. Maybe $349.

Not unlikely I think. It'll be the 2nd year, they'll be profitable there, and they want it to be low to get people to also get Morpheus. Plus they usually price-drop by $100 the first time they do decide to price-drop, just like w/ their other consoles.

That's what I want, anyway. $299 PS4, $100 Morpheus. Eat some of the cost on Morpheus for adaption purposes. I'm ready to eat that meal when it arrives.

 

[Duxxy3]

I say Bloodborne will sale over 3 million in it's first year. People underestimate just how large a following souls games has.

It's on one system instead of 2 and it's a new IP.

Do I think it's possible that it goes over 3m? I'm not sure. I think the market for the game is that large, I just don't know if the entire market has a PS4.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

I know, but its commercial success will carry over into March and it'll likely take best selling game of that month too.

There's precious little in the way of competition and as much as we'd like to fool ourselves, BB won't present much of a challenge.

100k seller. At best...

I don't think The Order will take best selling game in March once Bloodborne releases; Although I don't know the exact date Bloodborne releases in March. Is it earlier or later?

 

[Miles X]

900k was its first 6 weeks, not a 4 week total, and the 425k was its first 1 week on the market. If its best month was last year at approx 500k, there must have been a huge dropoff after its first week in 2012, then resupply shortly after.

It was its launch week .... I still don't get where you're going with this anyway?

 

[AniHawk]

3ds sales can't be good, but wii u sales are encouraging. i expect 2015 to be down year over year, all the way until september when the system gets a price cut. i'll revise downward my expectation of 5.5-6m as november sort of threw a wrench in those plans, but it has the ability to clear 5m by the end of 2015 at least, and likely wind up with 6m in the us when all is said and done. i think nintendo will be happy if the 3ds can just stay above 100k a month at this point. i mean yeesh.

really wondering when their successor platforms are going to hit.

 

[Aquamarine]

I'm hungry, where are the pies?

here you go:

white pies are my favourite

 

[Miles Quaritch]

I think the Order will bomb but what do I know.

Seems impossible to me. They've nailed the marketing with that Bobby Paige trailer, another like that cut with some gameplay will create a crazy level of hype and interest.

 

[Freeman]

Bloodborne will bomb. There's no way around that I think. Niche game on a newish console. It doesn't stand a chance.

You have no idea what you are talking about. It will sell very well.

 

[Dlacy13g]

Solid number all the way around. We know Sony won world wide sales for 2014 but I am really curious what kind of impact China has been for MS? Has there been any insight into their China sales numbers?

 

[Cse]

I'm surprised by the Xbox One's domination in software.

COD: Advanced Warfare, GTA V, Madden '15, NBA 2K15, Minecraft, Just Dance 2015, Destiny, and FIFA '15 all sold better on the Xbox One than on the PS4...

 

[gregor7777]

You should probably start prepping some damage control posts for March NPD now.

Anyone that seriously believes Bloodborne won't do good business is kidding themselves badly.

I stand by it.

 

[Mrbob]

I know, but its commercial success will carry over into March and it'll likely take best selling game of that month too.

There's precious little in the way of competition and as much as we'd like to fool ourselves, BB won't present much of a challenge.

100k seller. At best...

Not high on Bloodborne? 100K seems really low. Game should sell much better than that. People know it is the successor in the Souls series. My guess is around 300K.

Definitely not winning the month though.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

I don't think The Order will take best selling game in March once Bloodborne releases; Although I don't know the exact date Bloodborne releases in March. Is it earlier or later?

Late March I think.

Not high on Bloodborne? 100K seems really low. Game should sell much better than that. People know it is the successor in the Souls series. My guess is around 300K.

Definitely not winning the month though.

It's an extremely conservative prediction. It will likely be higher, probably closer to the number you're predicting.

And agreed. I just can't see it winning any month. March or April. It'll do okay for a game in that genre, that's pretty much it.

 

[Arkham]

With Xbox One dominating PS4 in console sales by around 500,000 consoles over November and December, it doesn't surprise me that the Xbox One would win December in Software Sales over PS4 for most titles.


You have 500,000 new Xbox One owners who need some new games to play on their shiny new console. I know when I bought my PS4, I bought like 4 games with it at launch.


Sure, the PS4 has a larger install base, but that doesn't necessarily mean those that owned the PS4 before the holidays are going to buy more games that those that got a brand new system for the holidays.


The Xbox One software sales are still very impressive, but having so many new console owners, and so many MORE new console owners than new PS4 owners, plays a very big part of that.

Why do I feel that you spent an hour typing that out, put on your Sunday suit, then pasted it? Dunno. Just do.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

here you go:

white pies are my favourite

Mmm! Thank you, ma'am! Looks delicious.

 

[Kathian]

Just to provide some balance

http://m.uk.ign.com/articles/2014/05/08/dark-souls-2-sells-12-million-copies

People saying 3M based on Dark Souls have little grasp of its sales success. Why is it going to magically perform well on a much smaller user base?

 

[De_Legend]

I stand by it.

Can't wait for March.

 

[GribbleGrunger]

Late March I think.

In that case ... you could be right lol

 

[MauMau]

The 360 finally crawls past the Wii in the US. It was a really really long time coming. I wonder if either the 360 or PS3 will eventually take the worldwide crown for last gen.

Not possible. Aren't they like 20 million behind?

 

[RespectThySole]

How much are you guys predicting The Order/Bloodborne to do first month NPD?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Zelda U will definitely beat it.

Likely not. Mario Kart 8 may eventually struggle to 3M, so I doubt Zelda will suddenly sell that much.

Is the NFC adapter for the old 3ds officially announced in US?

Not yet. It was just announced in Japan now, so at least it exists.

900k was its first 6 weeks, not a 4 week total, and the 425k was its first 1 week on the market. If its best month was last year at approx 500k, there must have been a huge dropoff after its first week in 2012, then resupply shortly after.

It was already said earlier that Nov 2012 - 425K, Dec 2012 - 463K for Wii U. What exactly is the confusion here?

 

[Miles X]

Not possible. Aren't they like 20 million behind?

More like 14m~ after last years shipment data comes in. Still too big a figure for either to overcome tho IMO.

 

[allan-bh]

Battefield Hardline will be number one in march.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

How much are you guys predicting The Order/Bloodborne to do first month NPD?

Bloodborne 700k
The Order 1000k

 

[Mushroomer25]

I don't think Bloodbourne will rush out of the gate, but I expect it to have very long legs. As the niche market picks up PS4 systems, they'll find the game. Plus, like Dark Souls, it's going to be more reliant on word-of-mouth than big release-day advertising.

The game will be successful. But it's not going to top charts.

 

[Deleted member 59090]

How much are you guys predicting The Order/Bloodborne to do first month NPD?

Less than Call of Duty/GTA.

 

[jblank83]

It was its launch week .... I still don't get where you're going with this anyway?

It was already said earlier that Nov 2012 - 425K, Dec 2012 - 463K for Wii U. What exactly is the confusion here?

As I said in the first post, attempting to estimate its first month (Nov 2012) on the market, given its totals for 1 week and 6 weeks, as I couldn't find the numbers for it. If its first 6 weeks was 900k, and its first 1 week was 400k, that leaves 500k in the next 5 weeks. If its first 4 weeks in 2012 was less than Dec 2013 (reported approx 500k), that means almost none of that next 500k occurred in the next 2 weeks of 2012 (Nov) and almost all of it after some sort of resupply in Dec 2012.

As you see, the 1st week's sales were 425k, not the 1st month's:
http://www.gamespot.com/articles/wii-u-first-week-sales-fall-short-of-wii/1100-6401223/
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2012/...ag-original-wii-but-better-than-xbox-360-ps3/

And the first 6 weeks were 890,000:
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2013/01/nintendo_announces_890000_wii_u_sales_in_us_launch

Given that I couldn't remember massive shortages of the Wii U, and first the 6 week total is 900k, I found it odd

Not complicated to understand.

 

[Gadfly]

Slow thread.

 

[Gator86]

Just to provide some balance

http://m.uk.ign.com/articles/2014/05/08/dark-souls-2-sells-12-million-copies

People saying 3M based on Dark Souls have little grasp of its sales success. Why is it going to magically perform well on a much smaller user base?

Because they like the franchise and spend too much time on GAF. It's lacking name recognition, is on one platform instead of 3, and working with a much smaller install base on that platform than any of the 3 last gen.

It may do okay but it won't be moving tons of consoles or lighting up the sales charts. It's Bayo 2 all over again.