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NPD Sales Results for July 2014 [Up1: 3DS LTDs, Wii U LTDs, Tomodachi]

This makes me want to know what the percentage of Kinectless SKU was this month to see if it's steady or changing.

I wouldn't be surprised if the kinectless percentage has increased this month versus June due to the TF XB1 bundle basically going OOS from what I've seen

Although June does seem to have almost 2 weeks of May KL buyers in it so it would probably be a toss up
 

Opiate

Member
I think part of the reason for all the discussion about the health of the console market generally is that there isn't much to talk about specifically: barring major screwups like PS4s having a hardware failure which lights them on fire, the outcome for the generation has already reached 96%+ probability of Sony winning the generation. We can quibble about how badly Microsoft and Nintendo will be clobbered, but the basic structure of the market is decided already.

The future of the market in its entirety is less decided, and a bit more contentious amongst members of NeoGAF.
 
Sony mentioned that Bloodborne will release within 6 months so we are looking at February the latest. The Halo 5 Beta starts on 12/29 and runs through 1/17 so people will have a choice of getting the XB1 for the beta or going with Bloodborne. Microsoft was smart to put the beta at the end of the holiday season to entice people to buy the console 8 months earlier then they would have. So Halo 5 is a factor.

Are they seriously doing a beta for a game that won't release for another 8-10 months? I didn't think they were that desperate.
 
Are they seriously doing a beta for a game that won't release for another 8-10 months? I didn't think they were that desperate.

Isn't a good thing to have your beta 8-10 months before release, so that you can actually use it to make the game better? I don't think it's a move of desperation considering the Halo collection will be out in November
 
Are they seriously doing a beta for a game that won't release for another 8-10 months? I didn't think they were that desperate.

Well the releases so far have been like

Halo CE - Nov. 15, 2001
Halo 2 - Nov. 9, 2004
Halo 3 - Sept. 25, 2007
Halo ODST - Sept. 22, 2009
Halo Reach - Sept. 14, 2010
Halo CEA - Nov 15, 2011
Halo 4 - Nov. 6, 2012
Halo MCC - Nov. 11, 2014

So I feel it's a pretty safe bet Halo 5 won't launch until Fall or Winter 2015
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I think part of the reason for all the discussion about the health of the console market generally is that there isn't much to talk about specifically: barring major screwups like PS4s having a hardware failure which lights them on fire, the outcome for the generation has already reached 96%+ probability of Sony winning the generation. We can quibble about how badly Microsoft and Nintendo will be clobbered, but the basic structure of the market is decided already.

The future of the market in its entirety is less decided, and a bit more contentious amongst members of NeoGAF.

Well, how do define 'winning'? Are you only looking at raw hardware units sold as the sole factor?

PS4 has a 2.7 software attach, while XBox has 3.2,
PS4 has around 670000 units or so higher software sold.

Pull out some big 1st party guns (assuming MS has a strategy for that), that's not an insurmountable number. Considering traditionally, Xbox's 1st party lineup has outsold Sony's significantly. Granted, there's been a shift in tides, but I'd hardly call it a seachange. MS doesn't have it's major guns out just as much as Sony hasn't (though I'd argue they have more, with Killzone and Infamous already out) Software, or overall ecosystem for a platform, is a major profitability factor to consider as well.

I'm really just playing devil's advocate, but i think 'winning and losing' between these two is just kind of a bleak way to look at it. Really, software and market size and strength growing is the most important factor. Competition is always good, and it's never been a closer race. I'd rather see encouragement than disparaging.
 
So with the Destiny bundle PS4 will probably hit what, 320k in September?
We may be able to get a sense of how it's been selling. Amazon rankings aren't very good for gleaning hard numbers, but they do seem to give a good sense of relative sales order.

In July, the PS4 was #11 overall, and the Destiny bundle was #24. The top-selling XBone was the solus console at #46, the only Bone to make the Top 100. So it would seem the Destiny bundle wasn't selling as well as the PS4 you could actually play with today, but it was selling better than an XBone you could play today. That would seem to indicate pre-orders of somewhere in the 132K-186K range for July? Oh, and then there were pre-orders taken in June, I guess, and more will be taken this month, obviously. So yeah, could be a pretty big launch.

Speaking of, looking at the exclusives coming out for both sides this holiday, I'm not really seeing any heavy hitters. Maybe Sunset Overdrive will be wildly popular. Maybe Driveclub will be. Maybe neither of them will be. It's not like one side has a new Halo or Uncharted slotted up while the other side doesn't. Really, when it comes to exclusives this holiday, the biggest draw seems to be, "Well, I guess Bloodborne will be out in a couple of months…"

As such, I think the Destiny launch will kind of set the trend for the holiday buying season. While the actual gap may ebb and flow from month to month as various games hit, I predict that the split we see for September will be more or less the same split we see over the entirety of Q4. If Sony runs away with the Destiny launch, I think they'll do the same throughout the holidays, especially with DC dropping the following month to reinforce any initial surge from Destiny. If MS manage to hold their own in September, then I think they'll perform similarly well in Q4.

So yeah, I think the September results will likely be the most telling we've had yet.
 

lyrick

Member
WiiU 4.56m = 21 month
PS4 10m = 10 month.

Your logic fails.

What logic are you trying to apply?

The Vita is selling at a slower rate than the Wii U, The PS4 is selling at a faster rate than the Wii U.

Even with the error in territory alignment, the logic surrounding the rate of sales is pretty sound.
 
Well, how do define 'winning'? Are you only looking at raw hardware units sold as the sole factor?

PS4 has a 2.7 software attach, while XBox has 3.2,
PS4 has around 670000 units or so higher software sold.

Pull out some big 1st party guns (assuming MS has a strategy for that), that's not an insurmountable number. Considering traditionally, Xbox's 1st party lineup has outsold Sony's significantly. Granted, there's been a shift in tides, but I'd hardly call it a seachange. MS doesn't have it's major guns out just as much as Sony hasn't (though I'd argue they have more, with Killzone and Infamous already out) Software, or overall ecosystem for a platform, is a major profitability factor to consider as well.

I'm really just playing devil's advocate, but i think 'winning and losing' between these two is just kind of a bleak way to look at it. Really, software and market size and strength growing is the most important factor. Competition is always good, and it's never been a closer race. I'd rather see encouragement than disparaging.

And, PS4 sold twice as many software units as the Xbox One this month.

Although TLOU: Remastered helped out with that...
 
Well, how do define 'winning'? Are you only looking at raw hardware units sold as the sole factor?

PS4 has a 2.7 software attach, while XBox has 3.2,
PS4 has around 670000 units or so higher software sold.

Pull out some big 1st party guns (assuming MS has a strategy for that), that's not an insurmountable number. Considering traditionally, Xbox's 1st party lineup has outsold Sony's significantly. Granted, there's been a shift in tides, but I'd hardly call it a seachange. MS doesn't have it's major guns out just as much as Sony hasn't (though I'd argue they have more, with Killzone and Infamous already out) Software, or overall ecosystem for a platform, is a major profitability factor to consider as well.

I'm really just playing devil's advocate, but i think 'winning and losing' between these two is just kind of a bleak way to look at it. Really, software and market size and strength growing is the most important factor. Competition is always good, and it's never been a closer race. I'd rather see encouragement than disparaging.

But are killzone and infamous really sony's AAAA franchises? They are exclusives, sure, but I would think that the real AAAA sony brands are Uncharted, God of War, and Gran Turismo.
 

ShaneDude

Member
Well, how do define 'winning'? Are you only looking at raw hardware units sold as the sole factor?

PS4 has a 2.7 software attach, while XBox has 3.2,
PS4 has around 670000 units or so higher software sold.

Pull out some big 1st party guns (assuming MS has a strategy for that), that's not an insurmountable number. Considering traditionally, Xbox's 1st party lineup has outsold Sony's significantly. Granted, there's been a shift in tides, but I'd hardly call it a seachange. MS doesn't have it's major guns out just as much as Sony hasn't (though I'd argue they have more, with Killzone and Infamous already out) Software, or overall ecosystem for a platform, is a major profitability factor to consider as well.

I'm really just playing devil's advocate, but i think 'winning and losing' between these two is just kind of a bleak way to look at it. Really, software and market size and strength growing is the most important factor. Competition is always good, and it's never been a closer race. I'd rather see encouragement than disparaging.

Ummm, no it hasn't? And the ps4 attach rate is 3.0
 

udivision

Member
I think part of the reason for all the discussion about the health of the console market generally is that there isn't much to talk about specifically: barring major screwups like PS4s having a hardware failure which lights them on fire, the outcome for the generation has already reached 96%+ probability of Sony winning the generation. We can quibble about how badly Microsoft and Nintendo will be clobbered, but the basic structure of the market is decided already.

The future of the market in its entirety is less decided, and a bit more contentious amongst members of NeoGAF.

The gen was halfway over when the Wii U fell on it's face, and the gen finished after the PS4 launch.
 

truth411

Member
I'm glad you asked because this thread was in need of a serious dose of reality of what's really going on behind the scenes. Microsoft is obviously taking a page out of Sony's PS3 playbook with the XB1. This is a clear case of under-promising followed by a massive amount of over-delivering (of value).

Microsoft shows the market a $500 console chained to expensive--yet elegant--hardware (Kinect 2.0), a revolutionary form of misunderstood DRM, and graphical components capable of hitting the holy grail of 1080p x 60 fps in games--basically giving the people what they want. And then they go "bam!", we're going to do you one better, folks. No Kinect necessary, but better with it... $400 bundles and $500 ones too if that's what you prefer... We'll save DRM for later when you're more ready for it... You want Madden, Fifa, Halo, and Tomb Raider, you say? Yeah we got to too! So the market goes, "well f*** me, this thing may have been awesome before, but now how could I possibly resist?" The fruits of this strategy will ripen in the coming months and Mattrick's true genius will finally be appreciated.

Many of you can't see the forest beyond the trees. Microsoft knows the majority of a consoles sales occur *after* the first year, so what happens now isn't really important. You can call this the "beta" period, if you'd like. The real party starts in year two. "Let the kids have their fun, but the real games don't begin until we say so." -Microsoft.

They want gamers to experience what the competition offers so that when they inevitably jump (back) in to the Xbox All in One Entertainment Eco-System, they will truly realize what they have been missing and then they will have won a customer for life. In a final stroke of genius, they want you, the gamer, to make the final 180 by turning your back on Sony's trap-box known as the PS4 and embracing true gaming-salvation that is the XB1. Sony's trying to "lock" consumers in by offering loads of "free" games, massive discounts, and a ton of other benefits that only work if you stay in their ecosystem by paying a monthly tax for the rest of your life. Who's forcing DRM down your throat now? You can't just stop paying and bring those games over to the XB1, for example. What kind of idiots do they take us for?

So Microsoft is gearing up for year two which starts this holiday season. Did you know that 80% of console sales occur in the holiday season? Droppin' nuggets of knowledge all day, holla. Microsoft has had the shelves fully stocked for a couple months now, so you could say they already have the jump on sony. Then they just announced about a dozen different variations. It's not one size fits all anymore, folks. That was the old way, the Sony way. You want a 1 TB version with manly COD graphics that you could show off to the b*tches in your neighborhood? We got that. How about a ice cool white one with a free Sunset game included? Yup. Are you a vanilla man? We got the standard SkU for you. Buddies coming over for a kegger this weekend? Grab the madden buddle yo.

Do you want to control your entire home entertainment system with just your voice and hands? The Kinect version is still available! 'Sup now, son. Those lucky gamers get the added benefit of all the motion-games that are in the pipeline from award winning studios like Rare and they can change weapons... with their voice. XB1 amazon rankings aren't so high right now since all the sales are spread out with all these amazing bundles instead of just one or two sku's like the PS4 or WiiU. NPD might miss some of these sku's as well since there are so many coming out all the time. Remember, those numbers are just estimates anyway and Walmart, the largest retailer in teh world practically, isn't a fan of npd so we're not getting the entire picture. Sony's in their pockets, no doubt.

2015, year of the Xbox!

HAHA!!! AWESOME!!!
 

ShaneDude

Member
Thanks to Titanfall...yes, they have.

I believe Xbox One exclusives have outsold PS4 exclusives in the USA by 43%.

Not doubting you, but can i see the receipts?

Edit: I assume he meant xbox first party titles have sold more copies than playstation first party titles since the two have been directly competing. Which I still believe is completely false.
 
Whatever they are, it seems then numbers fell short. It seems TLoU were short 50K from what some expected.

Based on "Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz" then

I can't seem to recall past predictions by him particularly but generally I don't put much weight in market analyst's expectations

Granted I'm still not sure what a good number is supposed to be for TLOU R. It's a remaster or up-port of a one year old game that likely took a couple of ND's staff 6 - 8 months to port. So the cost can't be that high
 
Well the releases so far have been like

Halo CE - Nov. 15, 2001
Halo 2 - Nov. 9, 2004
Halo 3 - Sept. 25, 2007
Halo ODST - Sept. 22, 2009
Halo Reach - Sept. 14, 2010
Halo CEA - Nov 15, 2011
Halo 4 - Nov. 6, 2012
Halo MCC - Nov. 11, 2014

So I feel it's a pretty safe bet Halo 5 won't launch until Fall or Winter 2015

Remember that Halo Wars came out in 2009. Halo: Spartan Assault also came out in 2013. I know it wasn't well received, but it was a new Halo release nonetheless (and to this day the only Halo branded game on Steam?).
 
Remember that Halo Wars came out in 2009. Halo: Spartan Assault also came out in 2013. I know it wasn't well received, but it was a new Halo release nonetheless (and to this day the only Halo branded game on Steam?).

Eh it's not really on the same tier as the other Halo games much like Halo Wars

Spartan assault is a top down TPS originally released on Windows 8 and mobile devices and Halo Wars is a RTS game.

Halo Wars - Feb 26, 2009
Halo SA - July 18, 2013

But again those games are not like the others like at all
 
Sony mentioned that Bloodborne will release within 6 months so we are looking at February the latest. The Halo 5 Beta starts on 12/29 and runs through 1/17 so people will have a choice of getting the XB1 for the beta or going with Bloodborne. Microsoft was smart to put the beta at the end of the holiday season to entice people to buy the console 8 months earlier then they would have. So Halo 5 is a factor.

It might just be me, but I am of the opinion that hardcore Halo fans have already bought the Xbox One will buy it time for the MCC. That beta will not affect Bloodborne and The Order much at all. Demographics for the games probably don't have much crossover either.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I interpreted John Harker's phrase to mean ps360 gen, since he said ""traditionally". What was the ratio of sales for first party then?

Yup.

And to the above, why would I quote WW? This is an NPD thread.

Edit

These no such thing as AAAA.
And yes I'd count kill zone and infamous, Sony spend a lot to launch those brands.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
According to Nintendo's PR, Mario Kart 8 and New Super Mario Bros U are the only titles who have reached over 1 million sales on Wii U. John Harker, is Super Mario 3D World close in reaching such a milestone?
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
According to Nintendo's PR, Mario Kart 8 and New Super Mario Bros U are the only titles who have reached over 1 million sales on Wii U. John Harker, is Super Mario 3D World close in reaching such a milestone?

Nope.

Though, they are factoring in digital sales for that announcement and I don't have that In front of me for M3D. If you factor that in, Its probably close, but still not likely yet. It'll get there (combined).

Mario kart and 3d world are close at retail, like 50k units or so (tho obvi Kart is still selling much faster)
 
Yup.

And to the above, why would I quote WW? This is an NPD thread.

Edit

These no such thing as AAAA.
And yes I'd count kill zone and infamous, Sony spend a lot to launch those brands.

I use AAAA as a term to denote brands that have a lot of mindshare and sell multimillion units. It's not a real term but I think it's useful to differentiate between average exclusives that sell a million or two(like killzone and infamous) and multimillion sellers like Gran Turismo(10-15 million), Uncharted(4 million), and God of War(5 million)
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
I use AAAA as a term to denote brands that have a lot of mindshare and sell multimillion units. It's not a real term but I think it's useful to differentiate between average exclusives that sell a million or two(like killzone and infamous) and multimillion sellers like Gran Turismo(10-15 million), Uncharted(4 million), and God of War(5 million)

You just described AAA, let's not go crazy with nomenclature :).

We typically use AAA, AA, niche and occasionally B-tier. But it mostly applies to launch budgets and revenue expectations. Obviously not development - you never tell a studio they are making you a B game haha!
 
People are still having a hard time accepting that the handheld market is on its way out. At the end of the day the average consumer doesn't want to play a $60 million budget blockbuster for three hours at a time, but would rather play a $60,000 budget casual game for three minutes at a time.

The fact that the average consumer prefers mobile to traditional gaming doesn't in itself signal the decline of consoles. The average consumer wasn't buying any video games at all ten years ago.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Nope.

Though, they are factoring in digital sales for that announcement and I don't have that In front of me for M3D. If you factor that in, Its probably close, but still not likely yet. It'll get there (combined).

Mario kart and 3d world are close at retail, like 50k units or so (tho obvi Kart is still selling much faster)

Thanks John :)
 
I think part of the reason for all the discussion about the health of the console market generally is that there isn't much to talk about specifically: barring major screwups like PS4s having a hardware failure which lights them on fire, the outcome for the generation has already reached 96%+ probability of Sony winning the generation. We can quibble about how badly Microsoft and Nintendo will be clobbered, but the basic structure of the market is decided already.

The future of the market in its entirety is less decided, and a bit more contentious amongst members of NeoGAF.

Right. The sales war is over. Bar a miracle PS4 will undoubtedly be the best selling console this gen and by quite some as well.

The only interesting thing (hardware wise) is to see how high the PS4 will go.
 
Thanks to Titanfall...yes, they have.

I believe Xbox One exclusives have outsold PS4 exclusives in the USA by 43%.
So, XBone is heavily outperforming when it comes to exclusives, and PS4 is outperforming on multiplats? Wouldn't that seem to indicate consumers have already begun to designate XBone as "just for exclusives," since they seem to be buying exclusives and little else for the machine?
 

jholmes

Member
I think part of the reason for all the discussion about the health of the console market generally is that there isn't much to talk about specifically: barring major screwups like PS4s having a hardware failure which lights them on fire, the outcome for the generation has already reached 96%+ probability of Sony winning the generation.

I think the main reason for all the discussion about the health of the console market, with all due respect, is people point to a company swimming red ink, abandoning hardware and scaling back key features as "winning" something.
 
So, XBone is heavily outperforming when it comes to exclusives, and PS4 is outperforming on multiplats? Wouldn't that seem to indicate consumers have already begun to designate XBone as "just for exclusives," since they seem to be buying exclusives and little else for the machine?

But how do you explain Xbone exclusives outright performing PS4 ones when their install base is smaller?
 

Welfare

Member
So, XBone is heavily outperforming when it comes to exclusives, and PS4 is outperforming on multiplats? Wouldn't that seem to indicate consumers have already begun to designate XBone as "just for exclusives," since they seem to be buying exclusives and little else for the machine?

I wouldn't say Xbox One users are buying "little else", more like "not as much".
 

Ty4on

Member
I believe they are only talking US + Japan sales? As we have numbers for those but not entirely sure

The post sörine quoted said that.

WW the Vita is unknown, but was estimated to somewhere south of 10 million after the PSV+PS3+PS4>100 million announcement and WiiU shipments are 6.68 million (FY14 Q1).
 

gcubed

Member
I think the main reason for all the discussion about the health of the console market, with all due respect, is people point to a company swimming red ink, abandoning hardware and scaling back key features as "winning" something.

i mean sure, if you have a large green hard-on, this would be your view
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
jcm said:
It could easily have doubled or tripled its numbers if they'd had enough machines to sell.
That could be debated - they hit 20M that year, and peak year was 25M, even if the multiplier applied to US only, it sounds like a stretch.
 
You might even say it is a Powerhouse™. Here's the 3DS vs the PSP and NDS in their comparable year of 2008. I don't have a number for July yet, but I suspect it's safe to guess that it was less than 222K.

Code:
            3DS 2014  PSP 2008  NDS 2008
January           97       230       251
February         153       243       587
March            159       297       698
April            106       193       415
May               97       182       452
June             152       337       783
July                       222       608
August                     253       518
September                  238       537
October                    193       491
November                   421      1570
December                  1020      3040
TOTAL                     3829      9950


Through June     764      1482      3186

Wow... 3DS is doing significantly worse than DS. Drop off is almost as bad as Wii -> Wii U. Why aren't more people (including Nintendo and Iwata) talking more about this? Everyone (including NCL) seems focused on Wii -> Wii U drop off.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Wow... 3DS is doing significantly worse than DS. Drop off is almost as bad as Wii -> Wii U. Why aren't more people (including Nintendo and Iwata) talking more about this? Everyone (including NCL) seems focused on Wii -> Wii U drop off.

I think because this one was expected. DS was released in a much friendlier market, whereas this one is packed with iOS/tablet/etc.
 
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