NPD Sales Results for June 2014 [Up3: All Hardware (June/LTD), Top 10 Software SKUs]

May 21, 2014
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Sales are lackluster in MS's biggest market and abysmal in other territories. Sales
are very weak, especially relative to past generations. MS (and Sony) WW total
numbers are being buoyed by the massive launch sales, which has allowed them to
barely outpace past market leaders like the Wii and PS2. Well, at least the PS4.

In short, sales are weak, especially for XB1 :D
Massive launch sales don't count for any less just because they're launch sales.
 
Jan 10, 2014
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Imru’ al-Qays;122110024 said:
Massive launch sales don't count for any less just because they're launch sales.
I suppose. Point still stands though, XB1 sales are weak. I can't see them being
competitive at the $399 price-point. Needs to be $75-$100 cheaper. Wii U could use
a significant price-cut as well. I'm thinking $199, or more realistically $249.

PS4 will have a 2:1 world-wide total at minimum by the end of this year.
 
Aug 18, 2007
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Imru’ al-Qays;122110024 said:
Massive launch sales don't count for any less just because they're launch sales.
Player 1:
Month 1: 90,000
Month 2: 10
Month 3: 10
Month 4: 10
Month 5: 10
Month 6: 10
Month 7: 10

Player 2:
Month 1: 10,000
Month 2: 10,000
Month 3: 10,000
Month 4: 10,000
Month 5: 10,000
Month 6: 10,000
Month 7: 10,000

It's pretty clear where that "race" is headed, even though player 1 is still decently ahead by any sort of basic metric like average, or LTD sales. It's an obvious exaggeration of what we have today, but the point is the underlying issue - not the exact numbers. Launch sales obviously count just as much, but give ammo for misleading pseudo-analysis. Player 1 could still claim, for instance, that it's the "fastest selling player."
 
Jan 10, 2014
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Player 1:
Month 1: 90,000
Month 2: 10
Month 3: 10
Month 4: 10
Month 5: 10
Month 6: 10
Month 7: 10

Player 2:
Month 1: 10,000
Month 2: 10,000
Month 3: 10,000
Month 4: 10,000
Month 5: 10,000
Month 6: 10,000
Month 7: 10,000

It's pretty clear where that "race" is headed, even though player 1 is still decently ahead by any sort of basic metric like average, or LTD sales. It's an obvious exaggeration of what we have today, but the point is the underlying issue - not the exact numbers. Launch sales obviously count just as much, but give ammo for misleading pseudo-analysis. Player 1 could still claim, for instance, that it's the "fastest selling player."
Yup. This mirrors my views on the matter.
 
Nov 2, 2013
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Player 1:
Month 1: 90,000
Month 2: 10
Month 3: 10
Month 4: 10
Month 5: 10
Month 6: 10
Month 7: 10

Player 2:
Month 1: 10,000
Month 2: 10,000
Month 3: 10,000
Month 4: 10,000
Month 5: 10,000
Month 6: 10,000
Month 7: 10,000

It's pretty clear where that "race" is headed, even though player 1 is still decently ahead by any sort of basic metric like average, or LTD sales. It's an obvious exaggeration of what we have today, but the point is the underlying issue - not the exact numbers. Launch sales obviously count just as much, but give ammo for misleading pseudo-analysis. Player 1 could still claim, for instance, that it's the "fastest selling player."
And even that's still inaccurate, because technically, both came out of the gate with Player 2 having the higher scores, then consistently sold higher after, so to speak.
 
May 14, 2014
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Given the weakness of bone sales as well as the recent announcement of record layoffs at microsoft it's safe to say Microsoft might be out of the console hardware market as early as this year.
the layoffs were a result of the Nokia merger creating duplicate positions internally from earlier this year, and had nothing to do with the Xbox division afaik
 
Aug 5, 2011
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UK
Player 1:
Month 1: 90,000
Month 2: 10
Month 3: 10
Month 4: 10
Month 5: 10
Month 6: 10
Month 7: 10

Player 2:
Month 1: 10,000
Month 2: 10,000
Month 3: 10,000
Month 4: 10,000
Month 5: 10,000
Month 6: 10,000
Month 7: 10,000

It's pretty clear where that "race" is headed, even though player 1 is still decently ahead by any sort of basic metric like average, or LTD sales. It's an obvious exaggeration of what we have today, but the point is the underlying issue - not the exact numbers. Launch sales obviously count just as much, but give ammo for misleading pseudo-analysis. Player 1 could still claim, for instance, that it's the "fastest selling player."
Nice example. The issue for XB1 is clear I think currently:
  • It got great launch sales but so did PS4 (in fact in most places PS4 was a little higher) so out the gate PS4 was immediately ahead
  • Post launch spike PS4 is outselling XB1 everywhere and therefore widening the initial gap
  • XB1 does not have advantage PS3 had of markets where it sold more than 360 from the start (note PS3 never caught up in US or UK it caught up worldwide thanks to other territories where it outsold 360)
  • XB1 is currently selling less in the very territories which gave it the advantage last gen (US & UK)

The upshot is if XB1 is to catch up it has to overtake PS4 again by fair margin in US and ideally in US and UK. If it more or less draws those regions then it will end up far behind worldwide overall.

The XB1 can of course be a success on its own terms in second place - but for MS if they want to try and close the gap they have a big challenge ahead of them with a limited number of regions they can reasonably hope to influence.

There's no reason to believe other regions will help XB1 the way they did PS4 - there's not one shred of market evidence to conclude that.

Ideally they need to do what the PS3 / Spny couldn't - come from behind in a region like US and regain the lead there (note please don't be confused with the 360 earlier launch lead - I'm noting that outside US & UK more or less from launch PS3 outsold 360 on weekly basis putting it on a trajectory to win those regions whereas in US & UK it never caught up at all).

Really curious to see how things play out and how MS market the device in US and UK to try and recover lost ground. Recent adverts and E3 imply a back to basics focus on core franchises and shooters/action titles and no doubt they'll try for exclusive DLC and the like too. Possibly they might try and free up further resources on console and encourage devs to settle for parity or close to it on multi-platform titles (that would likely be hard task but it's an obvious move to try and minimize one of the PS4s big differentiators).

Gonna be an interesting next 12 months.
 
Jul 28, 2012
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It was actually a pretty big bump; bigger than most predictions were expecting certainly.
While true, GAF as an average underestimated all next gen consoles it seems.

In fact the console that was underestimated most was the XB1, though they were all in the same ball park of underestimation.


1. PS4 - 217K
2. XB1 - 144K
3. 3DS - 103K
4. WIU - 95K
5. 360 - 60K
6. PS3 - 42K
 
the layoffs were a result of the Nokia merger creating duplicate positions internally from earlier this year, and had nothing to do with the Xbox division afaik
The layoffs have already impacted two major branches of the Xbox division: Xbox Entertainment Studios and Xbox Europe. XES was closed and 75% of Xbox Europe staff were fired while the remaining 25% will have to reapply for their jobs. That's just in the first couple days from when the larger layoff plan was announced. The idea that Xbox is safe or insulated in any way is preposterous. In fact, Xbox sticks out like a sore thumb in Nadella's mobile first, service focused vision for the company.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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While true, GAF as an average underestimated all next gen consoles it seems.

In fact the console that was underestimated most was the XB1, though they were all in the same ball park of underestimation.


1. PS4 - 217K (-52k)
2. XB1 - 144K (-53k)
3. 3DS - 103K (-49k)
4. WIU - 95K (-45k)
5. 360 - 60K (-2k)
6. PS3 - 42K (0)
in fact GAF just undershot anything current gen period

yeah I called it current gen :p
 
Mar 19, 2013
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the layoffs were a result of the Nokia merger creating duplicate positions internally from earlier this year, and had nothing to do with the Xbox division afaik
12k is about Nokia... 6k is about others MS division.

For now we now one Xbox Studio was closed (TV stuff) and 75% of the team in Reading (UK) will be out too with 25% fighting for places.

More will come in next months.


Edit - MS financials will be out in few hours.
 
Imru’ al-Qays;122110024 said:
Massive launch sales don't count for any less just because they're launch sales.
As I've said in previous NPDs, it's the shape of the curve rather than its overall size that is the problem. As has already been mentioned above, we infer different things from a system that sells, for instance, 5M units total in a year by selling 4M in the first two months and 1M in the next 10, compared to a system which sells 1M units in the first six months and 4M in the last six. This is referred to as "trajectory." Now, it's possible that the launch sales were simply so awesome that all the early adopters are gone and sales will pick up briskly again once software comes. That's within the realm of possibility -- I'm just not sure it's likely and it's certainly not guaranteed.

Consider the PS2 generation as a counter example. Right out of the gate, it blew away PS1 sales.... and then continued to blow them away, month after month. It was consistently a better performing system than the PS1 throughout the generation, which is how the PS2 ended up selling 50M+ more units than the PS1 did.

That is a stark contrast to the current situation, where the PS4 blew the Wii and PS2 out of the water at first, but then gradually began falling back to them over time.
 
Dec 14, 2010
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Nice example. The issue for XB1 is clear I think currently:
  • It got great launch sales but so did PS4 (in fact in most places PS4 was a little higher) so out the gate PS4 was immediately ahead
  • Post launch spike PS4 is outselling XB1 everywhere and therefore widening the initial gap
  • XB1 does not have advantage PS3 had of markets where it sold more than 360 from the start (note PS3 never caught up in US or UK it caught up worldwide thanks to other territories where it outsold 360)
  • XB1 is currently selling less in the very territories which gave it the advantage last gen (US & UK)

The upshot is if XB1 is to catch up it has to overtake PS4 again by fair margin in US and ideally in US and UK. If it more or less draws those regions then it will end up far behind worldwide overall.

The XB1 can of course be a success on its own terms in second place - but for MS if they want to try and close the gap they have a big challenge ahead of them with a limited number of regions they can reasonably hope to influence.

There's no reason to believe other regions will help XB1 the way they did PS4 - there's not one shred of market evidence to conclude that.

Ideally they need to do what the PS3 / Spny couldn't - come from behind in a region like US and regain the lead there (note please don't be confused with the 360 earlier launch lead - I'm noting that outside US & UK more or less from launch PS3 outsold 360 on weekly basis putting it on a trajectory to win those regions whereas in US & UK it never caught up at all).

Really curious to see how things play out and how MS market the device in US and UK to try and recover lost ground. Recent adverts and E3 imply a back to basics focus on core franchises and shooters/action titles and no doubt they'll try for exclusive DLC and the like too. Possibly they might try and free up further resources on console and encourage devs to settle for parity or close to it on multi-platform titles (that would likely be hard task but it's an obvious move to try and minimize one of the PS4s big differentiators).

Gonna be an interesting next 12 months.
This is a good post. For XB1 to have a chance to even tie PS4 in sales, it needs to win US & UK like its predecessor did. Sad to say, I would not count on that happening without XB1 having a lower price than the PS4 because Sony is focused like a laser to make sure they win the US because they are assured wins everywhere else.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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This is a good post. For XB1 to have a chance to even tie PS4 in sales, it needs to win US & UK like its predecessor did. Sad to say, I would not count on that happening without XB1 having a lower price than the PS4 because Sony is focused like a laser to make sure they win the US because they are assured wins everywhere else.
I don't blame this focus in US for Sony... it is the biggest region and MS never give any fighting in Europe and Japan.

So focusing in US is a big win win.
 
Jul 12, 2012
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Microsoft shipped 1.1 million "Xbox consoles" in the prior quarter (April 2014 - June 2014). You'll have to wait a little bit longer for a chance at knowing how many of those 1.1 million consoles were Xbox 360 and Xbox One.
That's pretty anemic, no? Not really drastically above WiiU's two really embarrassing quarters (first half calendar 2013) iirc when considering WiiU+Wii sales.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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Microsoft shipped 1.1 million "Xbox consoles" in the prior quarter (April 2014 - June 2014). You'll have to wait a little bit longer for a chance at knowing how many of those 1.1 million consoles were Xbox 360 and Xbox One.
so they pulled a Sony and combined them
damn it

fortunately DS and Wii are so dead that it's pointless for Nintendo to combine them

That's pretty anemic, no? Not really drastically above WiiU's two really embarrassing quarters (first half calendar 2013) iirc when considering WiiU+Wii sales.
er....Wii U January-June 2013 shipments: 550k
Xbox One January-June 2014 USA sales: 1100k

Wii+Wii U January-June 2013 is 1210k, but then the corresponding figure would be 3.1m for the "Xbox family" (I'm not sure what this comparison even does)

edit: wait that means Wii outshipped Wii U in those two quarters, wait what o_O
 
Jul 12, 2012
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so they pulled a Sony and combined them
damn it

fortunately DS and Wii are so dead that it's pointless for Nintendo to combine them



er....Wii U January-June 2013 shipments: 550k
Xbox One January-June 2014 USA sales: 1100k

Wii+Wii U January-June 2013 is 1210k, but then the corresponding figure would be 3.1m for the "Xbox family" (I'm not sure what this comparison even does)

edit: wait that means Wii outshipped Wii U in those two quarters, wait what o_O
Yeah, the April-June Wii U figures were worse than I remembered. I remembered it was less than 400k for Jan-March, but forgot it was less than half that for the following quarter.
 
May 31, 2013
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Wait a minute. Is the Xbox One only 600 thousand behind the ps4 in the states. Am I crazy in thinking that's not that bad?
LTD difference is ~660K -> 22.5% in favor of PS4
2014 YTD difference is ~476K -> 43% in favor of PS4

From this



360 sold 41.5M of it's ~84M WW in the US or ~49% of its WW sales solely in the US
PS3 sold ~26M of it's ~84M WW in the US or ~31% of its WW sales solely in the US

Gen 7: MS outsold Sony in the US by about 60%
Gen 8 (Thus far): Sony outsold MS in the US by about 22% [or by about 43% YTD]

There appears to be a massive contraction of MS US marketshare underway

------------------------------

I'll add some projections

Based on the LTD difference continuing -> 22.5% in favor of PS4 in the US

And assuming there are still to be 67.4M PS/XB consoles sold in the US this gen

Then 67.4/2.225 = 30.29M XB1s sold in US this gen -> 37.1M [30.29*1.225] PS4s sold in the US this gen

That would represent a loss of around 11M unit sales in the US by MS and a gain by Sony of said 11M units

Based on the YTD difference continuing -> 43% in favor of PS4 in the US

Then 67.4/2.43 = 27.75M XB1s sold in US this gen -> 39.7M [27.75*1.43] PS4s sold in the US this gen

That would represent a loss of almost 14M unit sales in the US by MS
 
Jun 26, 2011
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Wait a minute. Is the Xbox One only 600 thousand behind the ps4 in the states. Am I crazy in thinking that's not that bad?
The important question is, is the gap widening both in NA and worldwide? 600k shouldn't be a huge deal in one territory when you are slowly catching up bit by bit, but not when you're losing ground everywhere. One can certainly argue it's still early but it's only a matter of time before they're in a deep hole in Europe, it's going to make it extremely hard to make the xbone the default platform for most games and that means you lose on the majority of big multiplatform games.
 
May 31, 2013
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After all Microsoft has invested in the XB1 platform do you guys just actually envision them dropping it after a year due to a bit of a rough start?

Now maybe my opinion is biased because I've invested in the platform but that seems crazy
No they will most likely just wait it out and try to be as profitable with their moves as possible
 
May 24, 2012
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After all Microsoft has invested in the XB1 platform do you guys just actually envision them dropping it after a year due to a bit of a rough start?

Now maybe my opinion is biased because I've invested in the platform but that seems crazy
Not unless Mr. Nadella goes absolutely bonkers and wants to get fired very quickly.

Xbox One may not be a major part of Microsoft's operating income, but it's an important brand for the company that Microsoft has invested quite a large amount of money into.
 
Dec 14, 2010
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The important question is, is the gap widening both in NA and worldwide? 600k shouldn't be a huge deal in one territory when you are slowly catching up bit by bit, but not when you're losing ground everywhere. One can certainly argue it's still early but it's only a matter of time before they're in a deep hole in Europe, it's going to make it extremely hard to make the xbone the default platform for most games and that means you lose on the majority of big multiplatform games.
Yeah, it may be just a 600k gap right now, but so long as PS4 is outselling XB1 in NA and Worldwide, that gap will only widen and if it widens enough, it may get to the point where it is more cost effective for third-parties to just be exclusive to the PS4, unlikely as that sounds.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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For what it's worth, the overpriced 3rd party Wii U M&L bundle seemingly just entered Amazon US's top 100 of the year (#100). The Wii U didn't manage that in either 2012 or 2013 in the end at least.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Jun 11, 2013
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After all Microsoft has invested in the XB1 platform do you guys just actually envision them dropping it after a year due to a bit of a rough start?
Past investments mean nothing. Business decisions are based on future profits.

Of course in Microsoft's case supporting even a loss generating Xbox unit could be justifiable, if there is a strategic goal. But who knows what their Xbox strategy is at the moment.
 
Aug 18, 2007
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After all Microsoft has invested in the XB1 platform do you guys just actually envision them dropping it after a year due to a bit of a rough start?

Now maybe my opinion is biased because I've invested in the platform but that seems crazy
Microsoft isn't going to hold onto a failing business particularly not at the time they just brought in a new CEO and are going through some major restructuring. So what matters, as mentioned, is not how much they've spent on it but the projections for the platform. If they expect the division to become profitable then of course they won't drop it. If they expect it to be a sinkhole of money for the foreseeable future they almost certainly will drop it in large part because of the uncertainty around the console market. Demographics are changing rapidly and the future of the console industry moving beyond this gen looks questionable at best. In previous gens there was a large argument to be made that this gen could be utilized as an investment into future gens - that argument is no longer so valid.
 
May 13, 2008
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The important question is, is the gap widening both in NA and worldwide? 600k shouldn't be a huge deal in one territory when you are slowly catching up bit by bit, but not when you're losing ground everywhere. One can certainly argue it's still early but it's only a matter of time before they're in a deep hole in Europe, it's going to make it extremely hard to make the xbone the default platform for most games and that means you lose on the majority of big multiplatform games.
But they're not catching up, the gap is still widening. In order for the gap to close, XBO has to start outselling PS4. With June NPD the gap still widened' the amount it widened was lessened but still widening.