NPD Sales Results for June 2015 [Up2: Batman, Splatoon]

May 23, 2013
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Avatar bet. Let's do this. (Of course, we won't be able to confirm until IDG hits in like Feb or whatever)
Haha, never done an avatar bet before. It's not my style haha, my avatar just changes between different pictures of Zhuge Liang! lol!

I'd assume Sony will announce sold in figures as well.

Certainly on a global basis I do see them exceeding 30 million before the end of the year.
 
Mar 25, 2005
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Trying to remember how long Sony has gone without a price cut for their system.
This is the longest period.

Sony launched the PS3 at $499/$599. Ignoring HDD price reshuffling, they became $399/$499 in November 2007. So 1 year.

PS2 dropped from $299 to $199 in May 2002 after 19 months.

PS1 went from $299 to $199 in May 1996 after 8 months.

We are already 20 months from launch for the PS4
 
Oct 27, 2013
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Call of Duty and Star Wars are not exclusives games.
Exclusives don't sell consoles.
Marketing
does.

I wonder if timed exclusive DLC will get some of the hardcore COD players to jump ship. Even 1% of that audience is a decent number of consoles.
More likely than not. Most casuals don't have much brand loyalty. Ones that play mostly Call of Duty will be more tempted to switch sides, especially when not having DLC first means you miss out on the hype, the Easter egg discovery, and much more. I still expect the sales order to be 360 > XBO > PS4 > PS3, but the game between the top 3 will be reasonably closer.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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If is bundles, cream said 121k, which is not enough to hit 1.5m. Maybe NPD updated old data.

Anyway, at least cream was right about 1.1m figure, good to know that.
Went back and looked.. yeah it looks like NPD did indeed restate the launch of city down sometime in the last 4 years but brought months 2 and 3 up. In Liam's comparison to City, it looks like he didn't include units of a city/asylum dual pack that was sold at launch of city. So you're right, bunch of old data was updated. Clear as mud.
 
Mar 26, 2013
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IDG is more conservative on the PS4. Personally, I don't see them getting over 30m this year, but would be happy to be wrong. Don't see Xone sniffing over 17.
Sony expect to sell 16m PS4 in this fiscal year, that's 38.3m shipped by March 31rd, 2016. More than 30m sold-through at the end of this year is pretty guaranteed.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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Why they only released Driveclub last year and went on to move 6.4M. They now have Call od Duty and Star Wars. I'm not even looking at Q3 yet. Sony is probably already at 24M shipped as of right now.
They had COD last year ... it's not an exclusive. They also had advertising deals last holiday.

Neither was Destiny or AK but they move hardware.
Just depends on what Sony going to do.
They moved Xbox too, they're all big games that move hardware regardless.
 
Jul 18, 2014
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Bundles will help for sure but both games will be in Xbox One, plus Halo 5 and Rise of Tomb Raider.

Without Uncharted 4 and $399 price point completing two years, I believe they need a price drop, otherwise sales will be good but not great.
How many units did Tomb Raider the Definitive Edition move on Xbox One?
Also you are forgetting Fallout 4. I'm saying 3rd party is going to show up big in these final months and trying to pit your exclusive against COD, Fallout, and Star Wars are going hurt only the exclusives. This is why Sony felt comfortable moving Uncharted back to a much less crowded launch period. Just my opinion anyway
 
May 16, 2006
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Went back and looked.. yeah it looks like NPD did indeed restate the launch of city down sometime in the last 4 years but brought months 2 and 3 up. In Liam's comparison to City, it looks like he didn't include units of a city/asylum dual pack that was sold at launch of city. So you're right, bunch of old data was updated. Clear as mud.
Alright, everything was cleared up now.

Thanks.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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I think relegating last gen to being an "outlier" isn't being fair. Yes the install base was very high on the Wii, but the PS3 and 360 both achieved very high install bases before the launch of next generation hardware. Whilst a lot of the Wii audience have not purchased a next generation gaming console we can see that nor has much of the PS3 and 360 owners yet. The market contraction talked about in the industry today is something that has already taken place and something that started in the latter half of last gen. What I mean by this is the number of traditional publishers, games and users in the total market have already decreased. The main drivers of console sales this generation will be hardcore, core and semi casual gamers and casual gamers will only play a small part this generation in console sales and influencing platform holders/publishers strategies.

The home console market won't decline too much in regards to install base as you say, but right now both the Nintendo Wii U and Microsoft Xbox One have failed to meet expectations for investors and consumers and so it will be interesting to see what Nintendo do with their NX platform and what Microsoft do with Xbox One to try and reverse the situations they're currently in. Sony don't have it easy though as they need to ensure that the install base for their console continues to grow in a healthy way and right now it's doing just fine. My concern is just how big the market size is and whether we will continue to see healthy sales throughout the lifecycle of the console. It's already clear, barring any successful extension tool, that the PS4 may not achieve PS1 or PS2 like sales.

In the handheld market mobile has been a huge factor as you say. Especially as the age children get a mobile phone is getting lower and lower going from an average of 13-18 around 10 years ago, it's now down to 7-11 years old. That right there is an instant entry to mobile gaming content from a young age, not to mention that a child might already have their own/family tablet for games and applications + they will have used their parents phone/tablet before as well. It's very easy for kids these days to learn exactly how a smartphone works and what they are capable of. My 8 year old cousin actually plays Minecraft on his tablet and not a PC or console to give one anecdotal report right there. This is why Nintendo have plans to make mobile games starting this year and why ultimately a dedicated handheld device will not be the best option right now for the developed market unless it has a unique selling point other than playing console like games.
I think it's relatively fair but would defer to your view in principle (that you track this more than me!). Other factors I see driving the market (some of which have mirrors in film industry are):

  1. increased costs and importance of large, tent pole titles, reduction of mid-tier titles and growth of smaller, independent titles
  2. reduced focused on exclusives and increased focused on multi-platform titles - I beleive this is partly behind the PS3/360 to PS4/XB1 shift. Last gen there were enough key exclusives early on (particularly for 360) to drive both and to encourage higher percentage of dual console owners. This gen I think there is more focus on generally available titles, less compelling interest in exclusives (partly driven by franchise fatigue for certain exclusives) and this is make dual console ownership far less compelling and creating a market where one dominant console will be the focus globally (somewhat similar to PS2 but reduced in install base overall)

I do see - more from my background in demand forecasting - a great deal last gen that to me if forecasting forward I'd treat as outlier demand drivers The Wii (and by extension wii Fit and similar) for a start, Kinect would be another, high regional split for PS3/360, etc. etc.

At the end of the day I have no worries about home consoles in principle but I do see last gen as setting totally unmatchable install base across all three consoles that this gen will fall short of. I see the videgame market (at least as it is currently) as more likely to support one single dominant console with one or more consoles with less software/hardaware sales and more exclusive title sales (both Wii U and XB1 are in this camp I believe with XB1 seeing better general sales due to cross-gen brand influence but nonetheless way down from last gen when in many regions Xbox was the go to console for non exclusive titles).

Handhelds though I believe are - the odd unexpected spike aside - a dying species. The huge growth in mobile smart devices and other competition is simply going to reduce the addressable market hugely. I can see Nintendo surviving in a constrained way but I doubt Sony or anyone else will even try for a dedicated mobile device anytime soon. The odds of failure are high and the odds of success are low and getting lower IMHO.
 
May 16, 2006
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How many units did Tomb Raider the Definitive Edition move on Xbox One?
Also you are forgetting Fallout 4. I'm saying 3rd party is going to show up big in these final months and trying to pit your exclusive against COD, Fallout, and Star Wars are going hurt only the exclusives. This is why Sony felt comfortable moving Uncharted back to a much less crowded launch period. Just my opinion anyway
I agree with you about 3rd parties. My point is that even with PS4 bundles these games will help Xbox One sales too, and with Halo 5 and Rise of Tomb Raider as exclusives, Microsoft is better positioned for holidays.

Even a $50 cut for PS4 500GB would be important.
 
Jul 18, 2014
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They had COD last year ... it's not an exclusive. They also had advertising deals last holiday.



They moved Xbox too, they're all big games that move hardware regardless.
(Sigh) bundles and marketing. Like many have said, this didn't stop Destiny, AK, watchdogs, and etc from moving massive amounts of PS4s for Sony.

Case in point
PS4 ~367K for June
NPD reports Sony moved 120k bundles for AK.
MSFT moved ~297K
SONY only moved 247K regular PS4s (367 minus the AK bundles)
 
Jun 20, 2014
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Croatia
(Sigh) bundles and marketing. Like many have said, this didn't stop Destiny, AK, watchdogs, and etc from moving massive amounts of PS4s for Sony.

Case in point
PS4 ~367K for June
NPD reports Sony moved 120k bundles for AK.
MSFT moved ~297K (free game promotion for one week)
SONY only moved 247K regular PS4s (367 minus the AK bundles)
Fixed.
 

Papacheeks

Junior Member
Jan 30, 2013
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I agree with you about 3rd parties. My point is that even with PS4 bundles these games will help Xbox One sales too, and with Halo 5 and Rise of Tomb Raider as exclusives, Microsoft is better positioned for holidays.

Even a $50 cut for PS4 500GB would be important.
I think your forgetting something that's a defining decision among buyers when they buy a bundle during holiday.

Physical games.

Sony bundles physical games with their system, Microsoft doesn't for the most part. A majority of the games they pack in are digital downloads. WHich is cool for people who don't care about maybe reselling them.

But I can tell you GTA V bundle for black friday sold like crazy, and the reason on top of GTA V being so popular, was it's a physical version. So when they are done, they can trade it in get something else, or let a friend borrow it during after christmas, swap games or what ever.

Arkham Knight is a big game, but also the bundle comes with a physical copy. Outside of ac unity BUNDLE PRICE last year, I see physical copy being bigger selling point.

If they do deals for holiday with physical copies of starwars, Call of Duty, assissns, and Uncharted Collection.

Microsoft's bundles will look good price wise, but to other people who want added value, physical is that white elephant in the room.
 
Jun 2, 2013
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Don't forget the $75-$175 trade in deal for the Xbox One for E3 week:
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/60917/20150616/best-buy-xbox-one-trade-in-deal.htm

This was also on top of Gamestop's deal (that covered both PS4 and Xbox One):
http://www.polygon.com/2015/6/24/8838449/gamestop-sale-150-dollar-trade-in-free-game-ps4-xbox-one

So the Xbox One effectively had a pretty good trade in deal between two outlets for two weeks in a row to the one week with the PS4.
 
May 23, 2013
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I think it's relatively fair but would defer to your view in principle (that you track this more than me!). Other factors I see driving the market (some of which have mirrors in film industry are):

  1. increased costs and importance of large, tent pole titles, reduction of mid-tier titles and growth of smaller, independent titles
  2. reduced focused on exclusives and increased focused on multi-platform titles - I beleive this is partly behind the PS3/360 to PS4/XB1 shift. Last gen there were enough key exclusives early on (particularly for 360) to drive both and to encourage higher percentage of dual console owners. This gen I think there is more focus on generally available titles, less compelling interest in exclusives (partly driven by franchise fatigue for certain exclusives) and this is make dual console ownership far less compelling and creating a market where one dominant console will be the focus globally (somewhat similar to PS2 but reduced in install base overall)

I do see - more from my background in demand forecasting - a great deal last gen that to me if forecasting forward I'd treat as outlier demand drivers The Wii (and by extension wii Fit and similar) for a start, Kinect would be another, high regional split for PS3/360, etc. etc.

At the end of the day I have no worries about home consoles in principle but I do see last gen as setting totally unmatchable install base across all three consoles that this gen will fall short of. I see the videgame market (at least as it is currently) as more likely to support one single dominant console with one or more consoles with less software/hardaware sales and more exclusive title sales (both Wii U and XB1 are in this camp I believe with XB1 seeing better general sales due to cross-gen brand influence but nonetheless way down from last gen when in many regions Xbox was the go to console for non exclusive titles).

Handhelds though I believe are - the odd unexpected spike aside - a dying species. The huge growth in mobile smart devices and other competition is simply going to reduce the addressable market hugely. I can see Nintendo surviving in a constrained way but I doubt Sony or anyone else will even try for a dedicated mobile device anytime soon. The odds of failure are high and the odds of success are low and getting lower IMHO.
I completely agree with the two points you make in regards to factors that will drive the market forward. This is what I've been saying recently as well although whilst I do see why you would call last gen an outlier in the traditional sense I still wouldn't agree that it was. It's a bit like saying DS and PSP were outliers when it comes to handhelds.

I do agree that the home console market is healthy even though it won't match the install base of last gen and 100% agree with what you say about multi platform strategies from publishers.

Handheld is declining and that's why I'm really interested to see what happens moving forward in that space. To give some perspective (as this is an NPD thread) the Nintendo DSi launched in 2009 (a re-launch of a 5 year old product) has sold more in the USA than the Nintendo 3DS and N3DS combined. It's really only Japan where handheld sales are still somewhat healthy where as there isn't a huge market in North America and Europe anymore.

(Sigh) bundles and marketing. Like many have said, this didn't stop Destiny, AK, watchdogs, and etc from moving massive amounts of PS4s for Sony.

Case in point
PS4 ~367K for June
NPD reports Sony moved 120k bundles for AK.
MSFT moved ~297K
SONY only moved 247K regular PS4s (367 minus the AK bundles)
82% of all hardware sales were bundles last month. Bundles are the new hip thing. If you didn't buy a bundle then why'd you even buy a console....
 
Feb 12, 2015
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(Sigh) bundles and marketing. Like many have said, this didn't stop Destiny, AK, watchdogs, and etc from moving massive amounts of PS4s for Sony.

Case in point
PS4 ~367K for June
NPD reports Sony moved 120k bundles for AK.
MSFT moved ~297K with MCC+ACU+$50+free game of choice for one week
SONY only moved 247K regular PS4s (367 minus the AK bundles)
Fixed
 
May 16, 2006
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I think your forgetting something that's a defining decision among buyers when they buy a bundle during holiday.

Physical games.

Sony bundles physical games with their system, Microsoft doesn't for the most part. A majority of the games they pack in are digital downloads. WHich is cool for people who don't care about maybe reselling them.

But I can tell you GTA V bundle for black friday sold like crazy, and the reason on top of GTA V being so popular, was it's a physical version. So when they are done, they can trade it in get something else, or let a friend borrow it during after christmas, swap games or what ever.

Arkham Knight is a big game, but also the bundle comes with a physical copy. Outside of ac unity BUNDLE PRICE last year, I see physical copy being bigger selling point.

If they do deals for holiday with physical copies of starwars, Call of Duty, assissns, and Uncharted Collection.

Microsoft's bundles will look good price wise, but to other people who want added value, physical is that white elephant in the room.
Well, physical copies indeed changes the perception value of a bundle, I agree with you.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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(Sigh) bundles and marketing. Like many have said, this didn't stop Destiny, AK, watchdogs, and etc from moving massive amounts of PS4s for Sony.

Case in point
PS4 ~367K for June
NPD reports Sony moved 120k bundles for AK.
MSFT moved ~297K
SONY only moved 247K regular PS4s (367 minus the AK bundles)
You forget almost every Xbone sold is a bundle.

And that if PS4 didn't have AK bundle people will buy the standard... of course not to reach 367k but over 247k for sure.
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
Apr 25, 2009
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Isn't the same case with PS4?
Huh?

Poster A only mentions bundles for PS4.
Poster B mentions that you didn't count bundles for Xbone.

Now Poster C comes in and says what about the bundles for PS4.

And now Poster D is confused about why Poster C didn't understand Poster B.

Edit: And then you have Poster Z that throws a wrench in it all when bringing up 82% of all sales were bundles.
 
May 23, 2013
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Edit: And then you have Poster Z that throws a wrench in it all when bringing up 82% of all sales were bundles.
I like how I'm poster "Z".... for Zhuge....

Are those Xbox "Get any game free" bundles counted as bundles in the NPD, meaning they don't count in the software sales charts?
No. Because it's the standard SKU + free game. Not a custom SKU. So it is not counted under a bundle SKU but under the standard game software SKU instead.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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I completely agree with the two points you make in regards to factors that will drive the market forward. This is what I've been saying recently as well although whilst I do see why you would call last gen an outlier in the traditional sense I still wouldn't agree that it was. It's a bit like saying DS and PSP were outliers when it comes to handhelds.

I do agree that the home console market is healthy even though it won't match the install base of last gen and 100% agree with what you say about multi platform strategies from publishers.

Handheld is declining and that's why I'm really interested to see what happens moving forward in that space. To give some perspective (as this is an NPD thread) the Nintendo DSi launched in 2009 (a re-launch of a 5 year old product) has sold more in the USA than the Nintendo 3DS and N3DS combined. It's really only Japan where handheld sales are still somewhat healthy where as there isn't a huge market in North America and Europe anymore.



82% of all hardware sales were bundles last month. Bundles are the new hip thing. If you didn't buy a bundle then why'd you even buy a console....
Thanks. Interesting info. I tend to think global so yes thinking NPD/US I'd see last gen as being less of an outlier and this gen (so far) seems a cleaner follow on from that (Wii U is the exception but that's well understood by now).

Globally is where I see the changes showing up more clearly, with contraction for everyone but Sony outside of US and a real shift back to a single platform of choice with much lower level of support focused on exclusives vs multi-platform titles.

In US I could still see XB1 close gap with PS4 depending on how pricing changes play out for each console (i.e. if Sony gets aggressive on pricing I could see them pull fully away from Xbox for remainder of gen although I think the window for this is closing. MS with strong bundle/deal support has definitely put Xbox in a position where low price holiday season sales could close the gap.

When I talk of outlier I'm really talking home consoles only FYI. I think handhelds have a different path that is hugely linked to mobile devices. For home consoles I believe last gen (particularly in US) produced a perfect storm that saw unprecedented sales with two consoles over 40m units and the third over 25 million or so (IIRC that's roughly where PS3 ended up). That's nothing like this gen and the death of Kinect and sudden drop-off for Wii for me are among the indicators that in US there was a single gen spike driven by interest in motion controls and games that has simply evaporated thus far this gen with nothing replacing it (although we'll see what VR can do I guess).
 
May 20, 2009
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I think your forgetting something that's a defining decision among buyers when they buy a bundle during holiday.

Physical games.

Sony bundles physical games with their system, Microsoft doesn't for the most part. A majority of the games they pack in are digital downloads. WHich is cool for people who don't care about maybe reselling them.

But I can tell you GTA V bundle for black friday sold like crazy, and the reason on top of GTA V being so popular, was it's a physical version. So when they are done, they can trade it in get something else, or let a friend borrow it during after christmas, swap games or what ever.

Arkham Knight is a big game, but also the bundle comes with a physical copy. Outside of ac unity BUNDLE PRICE last year, I see physical copy being bigger selling point.

If they do deals for holiday with physical copies of starwars, Call of Duty, assissns, and Uncharted Collection.

Microsoft's bundles will look good price wise, but to other people who want added value, physical is that white elephant in the room.
This is a little OT, but how much you do you think I could sell a digital copy of Forza 6 for at launch?

I really like the look of the blue Forza Xbone, but I don't want to play the game. When I bought my 360 in 2010 it was from Dell with a free copy of that year's Madden, which I immediately sent to Amazon for $39 in credit. But I can't do that with a digital version of a game.
 
Aug 10, 2012
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Still included, see table below for reference. This fiscal year we have seen Microsoft ship 10.7 million Xbox One's and 360's compared to 10.6 million last year. In the last quarter we saw Xbox platform revenue decrease 24% which should stabilize this quarter.

I'm expecting somewhere around 1.2 million combined shipments which should take the total sold this fiscal year to around 11.9 million and the total of Xbox One's sold during the lifetime to an estimated 14 million+.

Code:
(360 + XBO)  Hardware Unit Sales (Unit:Million)


  FY          Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr    Ap-Jn      FY      


2013/14        1.2      7.4      2.0      1.1       11.7      

2014/15        2.4      6.6      1.6       -        10.7
It was around this time of the year they started grouping the numbers didn't they? Maybe they will change their reporting methods with the new fiscal year but I'm not too hopeful.
 
Jun 5, 2011
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(Sigh) bundles and marketing. Like many have said, this didn't stop Destiny, AK, watchdogs, and etc from moving massive amounts of PS4s for Sony.

Case in point
PS4 ~367K for June
NPD reports Sony moved 120k bundles for AK.
MSFT moved ~297K
SONY only moved 247K regular PS4s (367 minus the AK bundles)
Why not get a free $60 copy of Batman and not TLoU which can be found via DD code for $12? The bundles are the same price (ignoring the limited edition).

All PS4s are bundles at this point, as are XB1s I believe.
 

Papacheeks

Junior Member
Jan 30, 2013
5,353
2
325
Watertown, NY
This is a little OT, but how much you do you think I could sell a digital copy of Forza 6 for at launch?

I really like the look of the blue Forza Xbone, but I don't want to play the game. When I bought my 360 in 2010 it was from Dell with a free copy of that year's Madden, which I immediately sent to Amazon for $39 in credit. But I can't do that with a digital version of a game.
Is it Forza horizon? Or regular Forza? If so then look at how much it goes for on microsoft's store and digital code at retail.

Use that to gauge price.
 
Apr 22, 2007
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This is the longest period.

Sony launched the PS3 at $499/$599. Ignoring HDD price reshuffling, they became $399/$499 in November 2007. So 1 year.

PS2 dropped from $299 to $199 in May 2002 after 19 months.

PS1 went from $299 to $199 in May 1996 after 8 months.

We are already 20 months from launch for the PS4
How many chip process shrinks have happened in the last two years?
 
Feb 24, 2014
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A lot to soak in. Completely forgot about the financial report for MS is today. I'm predicting 1.3 million Xbox units shipped.

I think the PS4 will get a price cut of $50 and multiple pack in bundles this holiday.
 
May 23, 2013
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Thanks. Interesting info. I tend to think global so yes thinking NPD/US I'd see last gen as being less of an outlier and this gen (so far) seems a cleaner follow on from that (Wii U is the exception but that's well understood by now).

Globally is where I see the changes showing up more clearly, with contraction for everyone but Sony outside of US and a real shift back to a single platform of choice with much lower level of support focused on exclusives vs multi-platform titles.

In US I could still see XB1 close gap with PS4 depending on how pricing changes play out for each console (i.e. if Sony gets aggressive on pricing I could see them pull fully away from Xbox for remainder of gen although I think the window for this is closing. MS with strong bundle/deal support has definitely put Xbox in a position where low price holiday season sales could close the gap.

When I talk of outlier I'm really talking home consoles only FYI. I think handhelds have a different path that is hugely linked to mobile devices. For home consoles I believe last gen (particularly in US) produced a perfect storm that saw unprecedented sales with two consoles over 40m units and the third over 25 million or so (IIRC that's roughly where PS3 ended up). That's nothing like this gen and the death of Kinect and sudden drop-off for Wii for me are among the indicators that in US there was a single gen spike driven by interest in motion controls and games that has simply evaporated thus far this gen with nothing replacing it (although we'll see what VR can do I guess).
Yup, I look at it on a global basis as well but was just giving the 3DS example to show what the current dedicated handheld market looks like in the US at the moment when you look at pure users. The 3DS in North America has a much lower install base than the DS and an attach rate of just 4.4 when last gen the DS had an attach rate of 6.7. It's telling when Smash Bro's on 3DS is only just ahead of the Wii U version despite having an almost 4x larger install base.

Anyway, whilst I do look at each company's performance individually, I do prefer to look at each generation. So I wouldn't say the market has contracted for everyone but Sony, I would say the market has contracted with Sony having the largest share of the current market. It's a small difference in wording but a significant difference in meaning. In regards to last gen I can see how each console can be considered an outlier but not so much the entire generation which pretty much grew as expected due to the products on offer during that gen.

In the US the Xbox One is in a good position and isn't likely to fall away in sales any time soon. It'll either continue tracking towards the PS4 total or overtake it in the short term but I do expect the PS4 to pull away in the long term. Going back to last gen as you say it can be considered an outlier but I don't think that's entirely fair to say as we saw more of a casual push earlier on with the Wii and PS2 early in the gen until the 360 and PS3 took off. Had there not been the Wii but just a standard console that sold big then that would be an outlier imo.

What time does this come out anyway?

and don't give it in silly UK time like ZhugeEX :p
How dare you!
For Q3 was Xbone+360 1.6 mil. shipped?
Yup.