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[KillerMan91]

I'm assuming that Nintendo will clear 20-30% of LTD after successor launch, which is in line with both Nintendo and Sony historical results.

Eh. Sonys systems tend to sell a lot longer than Nintendos systems. PSP outlived DS. PS3 outlived both Wii and WiiU. Biggest reason is Sonys reach in developing markets.

 

[Theslammer]

Eh. Sonys systems tend to sell a lot longer than Nintendos systems. PSP outlived DS. PS3 outlived both Wii and WiiU. Biggest reason is Sonys reach in developing markets.

I feel PSP was aided due to its homebrewing popularity. But hey, a sale is a sale. =P

 

[Inuhanyou]

this thread seems to go everywhere at once

 

[Omnistalgic]

https://www.vg247.com/2017/06/21/so...ole-sales-by-bringing-new-people-into-gaming/

Don't know if this was already discussed, but at least its about sales lol...

The part I found interesting was the European and U.S focus. I guess Europe strategy is social games, and U.S is AAA?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

https://www.vg247.com/2017/06/21/so...ole-sales-by-bringing-new-people-into-gaming/

Don't know if this was already discussed, but at least its about sales lol...

The part I found interesting was the European and U.S focus. I guess Europe strategy is social games, and U.S is AAA?

I think it will be a significant factor toward reaching 100M if they market it well. They need to put it on everything when it is about to come out.

 

[Turrican3]

After GameCube (and Nintendo generally being looked down on in the industry), most third-parties stopped trying to do the same games across all 3.

Well, they relatively slowly replaced it with the PC and now we're back with 3 actively supported platforms that share 90% of the (current) lineup. Oh well, that's been going for a while, it's not really "now".

And I still think Iwata made the right call by trying to target a completely different audience.

 

[Omnistalgic]

Well, they relatively slowly replaced it with the PC and now we're back with 3 actively supported platforms that share 90% of the (current) lineup. Oh well, that's been going for a while, it's not really "now".

And I still think Iwata made the right call by trying to target a completely different audience.

Maybe, maybe he should have did both though...

IMO, MS has the right mindset, with bad execution, product line is not desirable IMO and trying to compete with Steam?? eh...You do need to let people play how they want to play however, and not limit it to a piece of kit.

Everyone wants to be Apple, but generally, there's only one super hot brand at a time in culture. The PS shouldn't be limited to a gaming only device IMO. There should be a PSpad, a high-end & low-end home console, and a streaming service (Which they have with PSnow, but needs to Match MS here in actually letting you download the titles) Mind you Sony is almost already there, but it isn't a full product lineup like say Apple with Mac/Ipad/Iphone/Macbook. They need to streamline the PS brand better, and have all these things not seem like separate hardware.

I think that's the future of gaming, more and more convenience and choice to how you want to play.

 

[Nirolak]

How do you define underperform in this context? Last year, however, 9 of the top 10 best-sellers were service games (10 if you include Pokemon, which some do and some don't). I think AC:O could be right up there, certainly in the top 10 in Q4, perhaps in top 5. In this environment, I think that would be an outstanding result.

I guess I would view it as a series that was moving 10-12.5 million at its peak last gen (I think they shipped 10 million for both AC1 and AC2 eventually, with AC3 being 12.5+ and AC4 being 11+), so if it can't return to that (say it does more like the 7 million we saw with Unity + Rogue or Brotherhood), that wouldn't be great for Ubisoft, even if it is an impressive number in a vacuum.

I'm not sure exactly how it was doing in the US during this period, so I'm not sure what the basis would be there, but I guess something like a 30-40% decline off the series' peak for the holiday season.

 

[Turrican3]

Maybe, maybe he should have did both though...

You mean chasing the traditional audience as with Gamecube?

The PS shouldn't be limited to a gaming only device IMO. There should be a PSpad, a high-end & low-end home console,

I don't know, it seems to me Sony and Microsoft for the most part are going after a demographic that isn't that interested in low-end hardware.

I think Nintendo is able to do it due to their average artistic/stylistic choices, but I'm not sure a "lastgen" looking Uncharted would work as well as a high end one should both came to market.

 

[donny2112]

Well, they relatively slowly replaced it with the PC and now we're back with 3 actively supported platforms that share 90% of the (current) lineup. Oh well, that's been going for a while, it's not really "now".

Yes, PC gaming is available to a lot more people nowadays than it was in the 90s, in my opinion. In the 80s/90s, PC was sort of its own beast. With the more affordable hardware options and the advent of a centralized marketplace in Steam (giving less incentive to pirate the software) in the 2000s and beyond, PC has really become the third option with the Microsoft/Sony consoles.

Switch may still bring more cross-platform stuff to almost have a 4th option, particularly with download titles from the non-major publishers. We'll see.

 

[M-PG71C]

Very happy to see FE Echoes in the top 10! I just finished it today and for a remake, it has been pretty legit. I wish I knew units sold in the U.S. but this will do lol

 

[PshycoNinja]

Very cool to see FFXV be one of the top ten best-selling games over the last year in NA.

 

[Turrican3]

Yes, PC gaming is available to a lot more people nowadays than it was in the 90s, in my opinion. In the 80s/90s, PC was sort of its own beast. With the more affordable hardware options and the advent of a centralized marketplace in Steam (giving less incentive to pirate the software) in the 2000s and beyond, PC has really become the third option with the Microsoft/Sony consoles.

Absolutely.
Heck, I've been recently returned to the PC gaming scene and oh boy how things have changed (for a couple of years in the early 90s I was also playing on PC)

And yes, the Switch could become a fourth platform for a subset of that western holy trinity offering (right now I still believe there's potential for some overlap in successful titles, but definitely not for all of them - not to mention the actual technical feasibility of the more demanding ones by the way)

 

[joe_zazen]

No kidding, haha.
Part of the reason I post significantly less lately. After over 12 years, it wears on you

reminds me of this definition of "forum",

Best described as a torrent of children running around in a minefield, some armed with weapons (moderators), forums are the flagship of internet discussion, spam, and flame wars.

Smaller forums tend to be more habitable, the larger ones have distinct features. For example, within approximately seven seconds of the creation of a topic, you will have at least one reply, guaranteed. Large forums also tend to spawn makeshift caste systems within themselves, and you're automatically a malefactor until you have a 4-digit post count.

A forum can sometimes be helpful, but normally they become a time consuming and frustrating thing if you pay too much attention to them.

 

[Fiendcode]

Eh. Sonys systems tend to sell a lot longer than Nintendos systems. PSP outlived DS. PS3 outlived both Wii and WiiU. Biggest reason is Sonys reach in developing markets.

3DS. eing a notable exception though, having outlived Vita.

 

[Liabe Brave]

How do you define underperform in this context?

Speaking of performance deltas, how is 2017 continuing to shape up in hardware? For January through April overall, Xbox One has been slightly doen YoY and PS4 slightly up YoY. Did both of those trends continue in May, or did one or both reverse? If Xbox One is still down, do you think that gap versus 2016 can be fully closed by One X launch this holiday? I know you're slightly less bullish on Microsoft's prospects now that E3 revealed its more premium price. But is there still an opportunity for it to boost 2017 over 2016? (Provided Xbox One isn't already trending back that way right now.)

 

[MatPiscatella]

Speaking of performance deltas, how is 2017 continuing to shape up in hardware?

I'm forecasting both leading boxes to be slightly down YoY. Switch will do all the work getting overall hardware to growth. I don't see any big changes to the status quo across the leading devices.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

Wait what?

Yeah it was on Switch reddit(plus I follow his Snapchat so i saw it there to).
Mindshare is everywhere for the Switch

 

[Fafalada]

How do you define underperform in this context?

Performance relative to the series? Unity/Syndicate already didn't do so well, so any further decline would probably constitute underperformance.

 

[hanspampel]

Performance relative to the series? Unity/Syndicate already didn't do so well, so any further decline would probably constitute underperformance.

Unity with the millions of bundle copies should've done decent numbers

 

[MatPiscatella]

Performance relative to the series? Unity/Syndicate already didn't do so well, so any further decline would probably constitute underperformance.

But sales performance of single player games is very different now than what it used to be.

If you're going to compare performance of a single-player game with some benchmark from 4-10 years ago and base it only on units sold, well then they're all likely to "underperform".

But a ton of $ are being generated outside of the game sale, making $ per unit sold far better than it used to be.

So it would be very silly to do this, as it tells you nothing of actual performance, especially as monetization gets more complex.

The only real way to judge if a title underperformed is to look at the operating contribution of a title, something that is, obviously, very difficult to do.

In any case, just looking at units sold really tells you nothing about a title under or over performing in a vast majority of cases.

 

[Omnistalgic]

But sales performance of single player games is very different now than what it used to be.

If you're going to compare performance of a single-player game with some benchmark from 4-10 years ago and base it only on units sold, well then they're all likely to "underperform".

But a ton of $ are being generated outside of the game sale, making $ per unit sold far better than it used to be.

So it would be very silly to do this, as it tells you nothing of actual performance, especially as monetization gets more complex.

The only real way to judge if a title underperformed is to look at the operating contribution of a title, something that is, obviously, very difficult to do.

In any case, just looking at units sold really tells you nothing about a title under or over performing in a vast majority of cases.

This really should be discussed more, as GAF loves to throw the word 'bomb' around without having context. Sure, every game would love to be like GTA and Minecraft and sell 100 million units, but we get too wrapped up in how many millions each and every game sells, especially AAA titles.

 

[sirronoh]

But sales performance of single player games is very different now than what it used to be.

If you're going to compare performance of a single-player game with some benchmark from 4-10 years ago and base it only on units sold, well then they're all likely to "underperform".

But a ton of $ are being generated outside of the game sale, making $ per unit sold far better than it used to be.

So it would be very silly to do this, as it tells you nothing of actual performance, especially as monetization gets more complex.

The only real way to judge if a title underperformed is to look at the operating contribution of a title, something that is, obviously, very difficult to do.

In any case, just looking at units sold really tells you nothing about a title under or over performing in a vast majority of cases.

Truer words have never been spoken.
This should be a disclaimer before every single sales thread on GAF.

 

[Fafalada]

But sales performance of single player games is very different now than what it used to be.

Well, Syndicate is 2 years old at this point, well in the timeline where Destiny took off and yearly games got more aggressively monetized post launch.

In any case, just looking at units sold really tells you nothing about a title under or over performing in a vast majority of cases.

Sure, but unlike free to play models, user acquisition count is a rather important metric for games you pay upfront for, and since last game was SP only as well, it will probably tell us some things.

 

[donny2112]

In any case, just looking at units sold really tells you nothing about a title under or over performing in a vast majority of cases.

* - Unless you're a Nintendo game on a Nintendo platform.

Fire Emblem with Awakening, Fates, Echoes has heavily dipped into the DLC model for getting more money out of users, but most of Nintendo's games are still primarily driven by the original sale. BOTW has a season pass, and I'm sure it's sold something reasonable, but with the first real DLC being this month and the main DLC for it being in the Fall, it's more of a way to keep interest in the base title over time, I think. Splatoon had a lot of DLC but it was all free. Again designed to keep interest in the title over a long time.

I think outside of Nintendo games, it's going to be difficult to measure success of an individual game solely based on total units sold, yes. However, saying that it "really tells you nothing" is a huge overstatement. If the series sells lesser and lesser base units over time, there's only so much you can squeeze from the whales before the series just isn't profitable anymore. In terms of profit, it's not a pure units sold to units sold comparison, but that still tells you quite a bit in terms of if your marketable audience is shrinking for the series or not to decide future planning for the company's resources.

 

[Vena]

* - Unless you're a Nintendo game on a Nintendo platform.

Fire Emblem with Awakening, Fates, Echoes has heavily dipped into the DLC model for getting more money out of users, but most of Nintendo's games are still primarily driven by the original sale. BOTW has a season pass, and I'm sure it's sold something reasonable, but with the first real DLC being this month and the main DLC for it being in the Fall, it's more of a way to keep interest in the base title over time, I think. Splatoon had a lot of DLC but it was all free. Again designed to keep interest in the title over a long time.

FE is IS basically doing what they want, I doubt NCL has too much of an input on that much as they have limited input/control on FEH.

ARMS and Splatoon 2 are looking to follow the same over-time trajectory, but Nintendo's internal/major studios that are under their control aren't immune to DLC or shy with it: Xenoblade X had DLC (in Japan), MK8 had its season pass, Zelda with its pass, Super Luigi (2D Mario), Pikmin, etc. They've been doing DLC for a while in almost all of their major titles sans 3D Mario, we'll see how that pans out with Odyssey.

Hell, Kirby sort of has DLC in that they frequently spin-off modes from games into mini-games they sell for a small fee.

 

[pseudocaesar]

https://www.vg247.com/2017/06/21/so...ole-sales-by-bringing-new-people-into-gaming/

Don't know if this was already discussed, but at least its about sales lol...

The part I found interesting was the European and U.S focus. I guess Europe strategy is social games, and U.S is AAA?

Crazy to think they're talking about pushing to 100m units and the system doesn't even have Gran Turismo or God of War. Two of the biggest IP's from previous Sony gens. I think GT will push a huge amount in Europe.

 

[Welfare]

To me, when comparing two single player games (like Syndicate and Origins), unit sales and revenue are about as important. Unit sales are useful for determining how many consumers actually bought the product and determines if the franchise is growing, while revenue also tells if unit sales are generating more revenue with different ASP.

In this modern industry though, what makes a game a success has changed and the addition of seeing DLC and MTX revenue can make up unit sale shortcomings.

 

[gtj1092]

It hasn't replaced the 3DS yet as the system is still selling decently and has software on the way

Even so, they're high enough to show it's attracting more than the super hardcore Nintendo audience if systems like the Wii U and GameCube are any indication. The former especially

Yeah, that's most people who buy systems early on and, even then, it's doing far better than the Wii U ever did

Is it really that hard to believe that the Switch is far more desired than the Wii U and will be a successful system?

Not hard to believe at all. The 3DS was also more desirable than the Wii U. And every Nintendo handheld has sold better than it's console counter part. Point is beating Wii U in sales isn't the bench mark. The switch is Nintendo's new handheld as well as we are constantly reminded of that portability makes every game better.

Also PS2 sold over 40 million units after the ps3s release that didn't mean the PS3 didn't replace it.

 

[Shin]

Speaking of sales, this is rather crazy: https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/878318361762856960

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Like others say units sales still have there place and important for certain things .
Like usual at the end of the day all data is important .

 

[JimJamJones]

Speaking of sales, this is rather crazy: https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/878318361762856960

Crazy, but it does help when you don't really have any competition.

 

[u_neek]

Crazy, but it does help when you don't really have any competition.

The Switch seems to be doing very well. And didn't MS announce that XB1 had sold 30m+ recently? Which is completely in line with its predecessor.

 

[D.Lo]

Speaking of sales, this is rather crazy: https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/878318361762856960

*Note: dominant console of comparison time period excluded.

 

[silva1991]

Speaking of sales, this is rather crazy: https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/878318361762856960

PS4 is a beast.

 

[dracula_x]

*Note: dominant console of comparison time period excluded.

Maybe you should read again.
He didn't say "vs all 7th gen consoles combined", he said "vs the PS3/360":

Here is a look at how the PS4 is doing vs the PS3/360 when launches are aligned.

 

[samar11]

PS4 is a beast.

Not anymore, Switch is the main and only console according to some gaffers lol

 

[Lokimaru]

Farpoint probably would have done even better had they put more Aims out on the market for people to actually buy. Those things are nowhere to be found in my area. Wasted opportunity for word of mouth sales IMO.

 

[Rymuth]

The Switch seems to be doing very well. And didn't MS announce that XB1 had sold 30m+ recently? Which is completely in line with its predecessor.

From the very same twitter:

Daniel Ahmad @ZhugeEX
That's not official btw.

OnyxSoul ♎ @OnyxSoul74
It's Xbox France, don't see why they would just make up some random numbers. I get what your saying though.

Daniel Ahmad @ZhugeEX

It’s not Xbox France. You can ask PR and they’ll tell you it’s fan made and unofficial.
Even the Xbox and 360 numbers there are wrong.

MS does not report HW sales. Every HW number you hear is either analysts projections or from fans.

 

[D.Lo]

Maybe you should read again.
He didn't say "vs all 7th gen consoles combined", he said "vs the PS3/360":

The poster I quoted called it crazy.

IMO it isn't exactly crazy that the winner of this gen has so far outsold the much more expensive (much much more expensive inflation adjusted) losers of last gen.

Aka the chart is either pointless or deliberately misleading. Its only purpose could be to show Sony's improvement, but it has the 360 on it so isn't a Sony graph.

FYI: Wii would be at 73.97 million in the same time period if it were included.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The poster I quoted called it crazy.

IMO it isn't exactly crazy that the winner of this gen has so far outsold the much more expensive (much much more expensive inflation adjusted) losers of last gen.

Aka the chart is either pointless or deliberately misleading.

There is nothing misleading about it .
Some people and companies don't see Nintendo the same as Sony and MS systems.

 

[D.Lo]

There is nothing misleading about it .
Some people and companies don't see Nintendo the same as Sony and MS systems.

Hence the graph needing a disclaimer then?

"*Does not include the actual #1 selling console of that generation as a comparison point because I consider it 'different'"

 

[Lys Skygge]

Hence the graph needing a disclaimer then?

"*Does not include the actual #1 selling console of that generation as a comparison point because I consider it 'different'"

He doesn't need to add anything. The graph specifically states that it's a comparison between PS4 and PS360.

You sound kinda salty.

 

[Welfare]

Hence the graph needing a disclaimer then?

"*Does not include the actual #1 selling console of that generation as a comparison point because I consider it 'different'"

Wii was a completely different beast that started at $249. PS3/360 are the only comparable consoles to PS4/XB1 because of the price and audience similarities.

PS4 is selling at an incredible pace for what price and device it launched as.

 

[KillerMan91]

The poster I quoted called it crazy.

IMO it isn't exactly crazy that the winner of this gen has so far outsold the much more expensive (much much more expensive inflation adjusted) losers of last gen.

Aka the chart is either pointless or deliberately misleading. Its only purpose could be to show Sony's improvement, but it has the 360 on it so isn't a Sony graph.

FYI: Wii would be at 73.97 million in the same time period if it were included.

Wii was at the 70.93 million at the end of march 2010 (after 14 quarters).

 

[Shiggy]

The poster I quoted called it crazy.

IMO it isn't exactly crazy that the winner of this gen has so far outsold the much more expensive (much much more expensive inflation adjusted) losers of last gen.

Aka the chart is either pointless or deliberately misleading. Its only purpose could be to show Sony's improvement, but it has the 360 on it so isn't a Sony graph.

FYI: Wii would be at 73.97 million in the same time period if it were included.

It's just a comparison of three platforms targeted at the same audience. Wii had a much broader appeal and reached a very different audience, which is also reflected in the games which were made for the system and that sold well.

 

[D.Lo]

He doesn't need to add anything. The graph specifically states that it's a comparison between PS4 and PS360.

You sound kinda salty.

The graph is indeed fine, but relatively pointless. It's comparing the two losing consoles of last gen to the winning console of this gen. Did anybody do comparison graphics between Wii and GC/Xbox to try and prove anything? Or PS2 to N64/Saturn?

The one point it could be making is that the PS360 style 3rd party ecosystem is doing better this gen. But then it should have included Xbone too.

But that doesn't appear to be the point of the graph, and it is certainly being used here to show 'PS4 is a beast' etc. But PS4 is significantly behind the winner of last gen, launch aligned.

Wii was at the 70.93 million at the end of march 2010.

True I was one quarter on.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Hence the graph needing a disclaimer then?

"*Does not include the actual #1 selling console of that generation as a comparison point because I consider it 'different'"

You do know this is a NPD thread and they do the same for just USA .
Also Nintendo had 2 system on the market ( 3 if you counting switch as a home consoles ) while Sony and MS has 2.
Plus the consumers base for MS\Sony share similarities .

 

[Turrican3]

One has to wonder what is going to happen to those comparisons when Kinect boost kicks in in X360 sales. What about demographics then?

And that would be, to me, the ultimate reason comparisons should *always* include Wii.

 

[D.Lo]

You do know this is a NPD thread and they do the same for just USA .
Also nintendo had 2 system on the market ( 3 if you counting switch as a home consoles
) while Sony and MS has 2.
Plus the consumers base for MS\Sony share similarities .

That graph is worldwide, not USA. And comparing them in the US is equally pointless.

To quote myself from several pages back

The Wii WAS part of the market. A full, bona-fide entry in the market. Therefore, if a segment of consumers who were previously part of the market disappeared simply because Nintendo went off the rails, well it doesn't matter why, it's a 40% market contraction. No spinning of 'b b but the other half of the market that didn't disappear is doing slightly better launch aligned' changes that.

One has to wonder what is going to happen to those comparisons when Kinect boost kicks in in X360 sales. What about demographics then?

And that would be, to me, the ultimate demonstration comparisons should *always* include Wii.

Exactly right, these positive comparisons between PS360 and PS4Bone are going to come crashing down when PS360 sales start to take off. They failed pretty hard early on, because they cost too much for too long, and the Wii was eating their lunch. As soon as they got to better price points and the Wii faltered, that's when they ramped up, especially with Kinect in particular.

360 has almost 2/3 of its sales ahead launch aligned, does anybody think PS4 is a lock to sell another 110 million from now?