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October 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wed., November 9th

Welfare

Member
That is my whole point. In Xbox's most powerful region, PS4 by itself (with some de rigeur help from Uncharted 4) still attracts more customers than an Xbox One S paired with every single game from either of the two most popular series Microsoft owns. The Xbox One offering as a whole has been more popular recently, but the comparison doesn't seem to show an explosive flowering of the platform, as some have analyzed. Certainly Microsoft is still leagues away from their last-gen performance, even if their recent good work has moved the needle in the right direction.
Wait until we get actual numbers. Xbox One is the only home console to be noted as being up YoY from October 2015 and the Xbox One outsold the PS4 by 28k then. We also don't know how much the #1 selling Xbox One bundle did, so a comparison is moot.
 

RexNovis

Banned
From Zhuge on Twitter

CxgF-M1WgAAY6g5.jpg


Completely forgot Civ would be counted here.

The most surprising thing here: no GTA
Maybe sales are actually slowing down o_O
On second thought... Nahhh
 

blakep267

Member
That is my whole point. In Xbox's most powerful region, PS4 by itself (with some de rigeur help from Uncharted 4) still attracts more customers than an Xbox One S paired with every single game from either of the two most popular series Microsoft owns. The Xbox One offering as a whole has been more popular recently, but the comparison doesn't seem to show an explosive flowering of the platform, as some have analyzed. Certainly Microsoft is still leagues away from their last-gen performance, even if their recent good work has moved the needle in the right direction.

That's not how this works

There's
500gb battlefield
1tb battlefield
1tb Gears
500gb Minecraft
Madden FIFA, halo etc

There's no saying that if there were only 1 gears bundle that wouldn't sell more than the UC bundle. You could have 2-3 Xbox bundles at 16% and 1 PS4 bundle at 17%. Or doesn't matter
 

Trup1aya

Member
That is my whole point. In Xbox's most powerful region, PS4 by itself (with some de rigeur help from Uncharted 4) still attracts more customers than an Xbox One S paired with every single game from either of the two most popular series Microsoft owns. The Xbox One offering as a whole has been more popular recently, but the comparison doesn't seem to show an explosive flowering of the platform, as some have analyzed. Certainly Microsoft is still leagues away from their last-gen performance, even if their recent good work has moved the needle in the right direction.

This line of thinking doesn't make any sense. There were multiple compelling Xbox 1 bundles on offer, so naturally Xbox 1 sales would be split between them.

The UC4 PS4 bundle being the top selling individual SKU is likely a sign that PS4 buyers found that particular SKU much more compelling than other PS4 SKUs (which Blops3 is the only other one, I think)

You really can't garner anything else beyond that. Are you really surprised that a pie slices 6 ways would have smaller peices than a pie sliced 2 ways?
 
The UC4 PS4 bundle being the top selling individual SKU is likely a sign that PS4 buyers found that particular SKU much more compelling than other PS4 SKUs (which Blops3 is the only other one, I think)
Well, he was also getting at this -

That pushes back a little on the perception stated by multiple people that "there's no excitement for the Slim".

Despite some suggesting that Uncharted isn't a system seller and/or the Slim hasn't been doing notably well, as you said, it shows buyers do find it a compelling product in some regard.
 

Trup1aya

Member
Well, he was also getting at this -



Despite some suggesting that Uncharted isn't a system seller and/or the Slim hasn't been doing notably well, as you said, it shows buyers do find it a compelling product in some regard.

Without numbers, there no way to tell if how well the Slim bundle is doing in relationship to the xb1. For all you know the UC4 bundle could be at 17% and the highest xb1 bundle could be at 16% and the rest of the xb1 SKUs right behind it. Xb1 could have dwarfed PS4 for the month. But with so few PS4 SKUs, sales were consolidated around that one bundle.
 
Without numbers, there no way to tell if how well the Slim bundle is doing in relationship to the xb1. For all you know the UC4 bundle could be at 17% and the highest xb1 bundle could be at 16% and the rest of the xb1 SKUs right behind it. Xb1 could have dwarfed PS4 for the month.
We're discussing how well the Slim is doing in its own right. X1 dwarfing it isn't relevant to that.
 

Trup1aya

Member
We're discussing how well the Slim is doing in its own right. X1 dwarfing it isn't relevant to that.

What I'm saying is you we have no perspective.

He's using the fact that Slim was the best selling bundle to suggest that the slim is doing "well".

He's using the fact that it outsold Halo and Gears bundles to support that claim. But ignoring the fact that the sheer number of Xb1 bundles makes it unlikely that a single XB1 SKU could take the top spot. He's taking the 17% completely out of context.

How do you define "well" if not in relation to the competition.
 

donny2112

Member
Don't expect to get Wii U numbers, so no numerical results this time around. Just placements. Wii U will get dropped next year, and 3DS will be moved to Units only (or dropped, not sure), just FYI.

Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, rankings are just a counter, so if two people are tied, it isn't shown here.

NeoGAF Prediction Results - October 2016

Units

1. 5Twist
2. freefornow
3. Madness
4. theprodigy
5. Tratorn
6. noobie
7. Raylan
8. Trust me, I'm a PhD
9. Chobel
10. Loris146
11. Welfare
12. mejin
13. GAF_Agg
14. Rand6
15. Luckydog
16. Primethius
17. SensibleSucker
18. Elandyll
19. Shambalakan
20. Shizza
21. andy_lhc
22. Javin98
23. KillerMan91
24. Bruno MB
25. Cow Goes Moo
26. Sterok
27. RexNovis
28. slavesnyder
29. Rymuth
30. Megadragon15
31. Bitch Pudding
32. Kill3r7
33. orfax
34. allan-bh
35. astrogamer
36. skedar897
37. Darth Smurf X
38. Nouzka
39. archnemesis
40. prag16
41. ZachzOOming
42. Fdkn
43. ethomaz
44. jjonez18
45. jroc74
46. Sangetsu-II
47. Shock32
48. robo
49. Prototype Viktor
50. Kayant
51. Conduit
52. jayu26
53. donny2112
54. Pachter
55. perfectchaos007
56. theindieboy


Points
Code:
     October 2016                    Overall 2016 Top (8/10)
01.  5Twist                 ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
02.  freefornow             ---.--   Cow Goes Moo           ---.--
03.  theprodigy             ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
04.  Madness                ---.--   Tratorn                ---.--
05.  Tratorn                ---.--   Javin98                ---.--
06.  noobie                 ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--    *RexNovis    ---.--
07.  Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
08.  Raylan                 ---.--   Raylan                 ---.--
09.  Loris146               ---.--   RexNovis               ---.--
10.  Chobel                 ---.--   Nouzka                 ---.--
11.  Luckydog               ---.--   orfax                  ---.--
12.  Megadragon15           ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
13.  mejin                  ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
14.  Shambalakan            ---.--   Ryng_tolu              ---.--
15.  SensibleSucker         ---.--   skedar897              ---.--
16.  Kill3r7                ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
17.  Elandyll               ---.--   Bruno MB               ---.--
18.  KillerMan91            ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
19.  Shizza                 ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
20.  Rymuth                 ---.--   Rand6                  ---.--
21.  Rand6                  ---.--   ZachzOOming            ---.--
22.  andy_lhc               ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
23.  slavesnyder            ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
24.  Bitch Pudding          ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
25.  Javin98                ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
26.  Welfare                ---.--   jjonez18               ---.--
27.  Primethius             ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
28.  allan-bh               ---.--   ConfusedGamer          ---.--
29.  Nouzka                 ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
30.  Bruno MB               ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
31.  skedar897              ---.--   Kill3r7                ---.--
32.  RexNovis               ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
33.  prag16                 ---.--   andy_lhc               ---.--
34.  Cow Goes Moo           ---.--   robo                   ---.--
35.  Prototype Viktor       ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
36.  jroc74                 ---.--   Megadragon15           ---.--
37.  Fdkn                   ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
38.  archnemesis            ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
39.  Sterok                 ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
40.  orfax                  ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
41.  robo                   ---.--   AmaterasuOni           ---.--
42.  ZachzOOming            ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
43.  Kayant                 ---.--   Hydrargyrus            ---.--
44.  astrogamer             ---.--   gtj1092                ---.--
45.  Sangetsu-II            ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
46.  jjonez18               ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
47.  Darth Smurf X          ---.--   DriftingSpirit         ---.--
48.  Pachter                ---.--   Tubie                  ---.--
49.  donny2112              ---.--   travisbickle           ---.--
50.  jayu26                 ---.--   Asd202                 ---.--

Congratulations, 5Twist! :D
 
Thanks, Donny^^ Well... going conservative got me my best score this year... maybe the end of optimistic Gaf? Hopefully the holidays give an opportunity for optimism to return^^
 
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