Taking a look at BABiP
posted: Wednesday, June 13, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry
ATTENTION, NERDS: THERE IS NEW NEWS ABOUT BABIP.
If you're not a nerd, you might not know that BABiP stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is something we've been following for six or seven years now, and in fact it's a key ingredient in the toolbox of every sabermetrician (professional or amateur).
Why? Because -- as the theory goes -- once the batter makes contact, it really doesn't matter who threw the pitch. Major leaguers are going to hit .300 when the ball's put in play, and it really doesn't matter much whether the pitcher is Johan Santana or Carlos Silva. Like flipping coins.
That's generally true, and incredibly useful. But while the inventor, Voros McCracken, once wrote that "there is little if any difference among major-league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls hit in the field of play," since then McCracken and others have refined his initial research, and concluded that there really is a difference, small but significant. And that's really all you need to know.
Unless you're a nerd (and by the way, I can use that n-word because I am one; we just don't like it when non-n's use it). In which case you'll want to read Keith Isley's different look at BABiP, in which he combines statistics and video analysis (which all the kids are doing these days) of Barry Zito and Zack Greinke. Skipping nearly to the bottom ...
Chalking up BABIP as merely the result of chance outcomes does disservice to pitchers' skill at preventing solid contact, which is the essence of pitching. Tossing a coin is chance, not skill, because you can't control the result by how you flip the coin. Pitchers demonstrate skill in their control over the hardness of hitter contact, which indirectly but positively affects outcomes on in-park batted balls.
Johan Santana's career BABiP is .280; Carlos Silva's is .313.
Flipping coins, indeed.