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Official Jan 2008 NPD Thread - HW Shortages + Spectacular SW
- Thread starter VideoMan
- Start date
Insane Metal
Member
What were the numbers for last Feb?
squatingyeti
non-sanctioned troll
nib95 said:
Yep, ~1.77M more and they'll make up for 2007.
EDIT: Or we could all just fuck iSuppli and start having negative LTD NOW!
squatingyeti said:
Yep, like I said before, I agree with this. A larger install base wouldn't ensure greater sales of like Burnout on the PS3 than the 360 since it's ratio now with the smaller base is higher. Can it do so potentially? Absolutely. Is it a sure thing? Not by a mile.
I don't think Sony's going to change that for a while based on the image right now consumers still have on their mind from the media. Now, I'm not saying with the heavy hitters and recognized/valued franchises hitting this year isn't going to make it interesting, but they're not going to easily surpass the 360 in NA for a long while. Worldwide though, that's a different story.
charlequin
Banned
J-Rzez said:
So do you, or do you not, agree that the tie ratio of a given representative title will be lower the larger the hardware installed base of the system is?
charlequin said:
I'm not sure how much clearer I have to make this, but perhaps 3rd time's the charm. With the larger numbers you can possibly sell more since there's more potential customers. Does it mean yes it will, set in stone? No. PS2 has shown that many times over. Could it be different this time around though with more potential customers buying it than others before, sure, you never know.
All I'm saying is if the tie-ratio is better of said game is better on PS3, it doesn't necessarily mean if the user base was larger it would scale along with it, assuring more sales PS3 overall. You just don't know with variables within. If you're asking overall with this Burnout in general, I doubt it, Burnout's not a good game for that comparison.
Just out of curiosity, what was the proven tie ratio with Burnout between the two, as well as CoD4? Both NA only and WW?
Version 3.0
Member
Insane Metal said:
Feb 2007
PS2: 295,000
Xbox: 480
GCN: 24,000
GBA: 136,000
NDS: 485,000
PSP: 176,000
X360: 228,000
PS3: 127,000
Wii: 335,000
squatingyeti said:
A larger active install base = greater potential sales. And the 360 userbase is still very much activein the US, while the huge PS2 userbase for example, not so much. However, you look at countries like Germany where 360 is still slightly ahead of PS3 in install base, but because most of the 360 owners aren't active any more and have moved on to PS3 or back to PC, PS3 software far outsells it.
nib95 said:
Yep, if they continue to outsell 360 by 40k every month for the next 11 months, they'll have caught up to the amount 360 outsold PS3 in December alone (462k).
Meh. Wild predictions are more fun.legend166 said:
That March number was for all of America. I accidently put that on there. I'm going to change that to 855,000 for US only.
But yeah, there were supposively nearly no Wii shipments in January, but there certainly were. I don't like to base sales predictions off of reports.
sleeping_dragon
Banned
PS3 number is gonna be massive for Feb and Mar because ppl are looking to buy a Blu-ray player and the PS3 is one of the best if not the best value Blu-ray player. And there are the Xbox360 shortages which will likely works in the PS3 favor.
thestopsign
Member
legend166 said:
I think we'll see an incremental incline in sales for the Wii, at least up through March. Then it will probably plateau and stay around 450-500k monthly for most of the year. 360 will probably stay consistent too at just around 250k, like it has for the other two years it's been on the market. The PS3 is going to be a tad bit unpredictable, up and down depending on new releases or price cuts.
squatingyeti said:
You're correct, of course, but the real question is at what rate the attach ratio declines. Concievably, this decline could be small enough that Burnout's numbers would still be better on the PS3, or it could be so severe that it wouldn't even be close. Eyeballing the numbers, I'd intuitively say that it would put Burnout Paradise PS3 at about the same attach ratio as the 360 version, but I'd need a crapload of historical data to be remotely scientific about it.
squatingyeti
non-sanctioned troll
J-Rzez said:
The point is, it doesn't matter what the tie ratio of a game is. The tie ratio will be better when the install base is lower. If a console releases and sells 3M day one, along with madden @ 17% attach rate, (Madden does get this attach rate early on in a console cycle) madden will have sold 510k.
Take the same console launch, have it sell 10M on day one, and the madden attach rate will decrease. There are just some people that will NOT buy X game. Comparing attach rate of X title on different consoles of vastly different install basis, is ridiculous. THAT is the only point needed to be made.
So I have to admit. Earlier I said there were stacks of both 360s and PS3s not long ago. So when I went to Best Buy yesterday, I discovered there were no stacks to be found. All sold out. I guess it hit our area pretty bad too. Now I can't exchange the Elite that just short changed us. Well, not until the next shipment comes in. Hopefully this doesn't keep happening. Production lines need to ramp up if this is a regular occurrence. With that said, I hope all three systems will perform as suprisingly as January's with February's sales.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
darkgable said:
Everybody says this about Rare, but on the whole, very few people left. Original Banjo team is there and that is all that matters.
squatingyeti said:
Blanket statements suck. Tie ratios are one of the most basic and most important statistics that companies use to determine their future projects.
Obviously they are not used alone and are used with host of other statistics to determine future of any project. Lets assured that host of analysts at EA know well how to use tie ratios. Thats why companies spend thousands to get sales stats every week/month.
DeadGzuz said:
A. PS360 games generally cost a lot more to make.
B. Wii owners would buy more 3rd party games if they didn't suck and were advertised
C. Are you saying that the only real exclusive (non-first party) games this gen are going to Wii?
And the market leading system always gets mountains of shovelware. Just a fact of life.
StevieP said:
Wii has tons of shovelware because Nintendo don't run a quality control scheme on their certification process. There was an article on this in EGM a few months back.
PS2 had shovelware later in its life because Sony relax their certification process as their consoles mature. Same with PSOne, expect the same with PS3.
And it wouldn't be too difficult for these dodgy publishers to port crap like Ninjabread Man over to 360, but you really think MS would let that shit pass approval? They have processes in place to stop that shit. You don't want your console's software shelf space getting saturated with crap when you're trying to build a reputation and solid foundation for the future.
pswii60 said:
That was just an editorial article in EGM. Shovelware has never hurt a system, the only people who seem to care are fanboys of the rival systems who try and use those as prime examples of what the system does.
Also, Sony Computer Entertainment Europe did not stop any games (legally they weren't allowed to since some idiotic European Union laws think that being allowed to approve what appears on your game system is wrong, hence why crap from cpmpanies like Phoenix Games exist). The PS2 always had shovelware though. It's just more prevalent on Wii since they saw that it was the fastest selling system of all time and wanted to jump on board early.
Ken Masters
Banned
WickedLaharl said:
the gifs are why I love gaf
squatingyeti
non-sanctioned troll
spwolf said:
Hey, way to take it out of context. I'm not talking about companies. I'm talking about the idiots that continue to say stupid stuff like, the attach rate for X game was much better on Y console. Xbox fans used that stupid flawed logic during last gen, and now Sony fans are using the same stupid flawed logic.
Maybe next time you should try not to take my comments out of context. Then again, you're so set in being the way you are...
EDIT: If you actually put the statement in context, I said:
Try harder to make people seem wrong. Keep fighting the good fight, taking people's statements WAY out of context.
ComputerNerd
Banned
spwolf said:
Software companies don't give a rats ass about tie ratios. Why should they? There's only one thing they care about. How much their game will sell.
Would they be stupid enough to put a project on a console with a 5 million user base, and sell 500K units (for a 10% attach rate), rather than a console with a 100 million user base, and sell 2 million? (a 2% attach rate) Not counting things like development costs, the answer should be clear. Unless the CEO wants to be fired, he'll put the game on the console that will generate sales of 2 million units.
Software companies use sales stats to determine how much their games will sell.
As for the question of why would a 3rd party put a game on the Wii instead of 360/PS3/PC, well, I don't see why they can't make a Wii version along with a 360/PS3/PC version. But if it has to be on one or the other, they'll determine whether they think the Wii version would sell better than the 360, PS3, and PC versions combined. While also accounting for development costs. When (or if), the Wii has sold more than the 360 and PS3 combined, we may see some 3rd party titles moved over.
It's hard to say though. Like I said earlier, why not put it on all 4?
My analysis is simple... 360 is more of a hardcore machine, PS3 has brand name and supposedly 2008 is its year, while Wii... is a gamble.
I personally see PS3 edging out the 360. The Wii will lose steam down the road, though it will regain strength with Brawl, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii and anything else that comes, enough to keep it #1 for a wide margin. (Worldwide)
2008:
1) Wii
2) PS3
3) 360
2009 looks harder to predict. But, once again Wii will lose momentum, aided possibly by another price cut, though I expect many fuckawesome games for it in 09, since Third parties will get the hang and stop porting PS2, PSP games by then an actually develop something. I also think Animal Crossing and Zelda Wii will be released. Xbox 360 will see a flat year, but I cannot predict this since I have no clue what games are coming. Comparing sales of previous generations and its momentum... to me it will once again lose, this time by a wider margin. For PS3, it will keep the momentum from MGS4, and possibly FFXIII will be released by then, at some point. Price cuts, Blu Ray movies, and fixing issues with the XMB will give it quite a victory over 360. In the US the tide will be turned, and we should see PS3 outselling the 360
2009:
1) Wii
2) PS3
3) 360
And 2010 is up in the air, though I really expect Wii 2 by then. Xbox 720 will come by 2011 and PS4... well, no clue.
- - - - - - - - -
So yeah, that's the analysis I have done, following recent trends and stuff. By the end... Wii will win, followed by PS3 and 360 and I mean WORLDWIDE sales overall. I think the 360 will edge out the PS3 in US by 2010.
I personally see PS3 edging out the 360. The Wii will lose steam down the road, though it will regain strength with Brawl, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii and anything else that comes, enough to keep it #1 for a wide margin. (Worldwide)
2008:
1) Wii
2) PS3
3) 360
2009 looks harder to predict. But, once again Wii will lose momentum, aided possibly by another price cut, though I expect many fuckawesome games for it in 09, since Third parties will get the hang and stop porting PS2, PSP games by then an actually develop something. I also think Animal Crossing and Zelda Wii will be released. Xbox 360 will see a flat year, but I cannot predict this since I have no clue what games are coming. Comparing sales of previous generations and its momentum... to me it will once again lose, this time by a wider margin. For PS3, it will keep the momentum from MGS4, and possibly FFXIII will be released by then, at some point. Price cuts, Blu Ray movies, and fixing issues with the XMB will give it quite a victory over 360. In the US the tide will be turned, and we should see PS3 outselling the 360
2009:
1) Wii
2) PS3
3) 360
And 2010 is up in the air, though I really expect Wii 2 by then. Xbox 720 will come by 2011 and PS4... well, no clue.
- - - - - - - - -
So yeah, that's the analysis I have done, following recent trends and stuff. By the end... Wii will win, followed by PS3 and 360 and I mean WORLDWIDE sales overall. I think the 360 will edge out the PS3 in US by 2010.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Relix said:
How can you, or anyone else theorize that the Wii will lose steam? Especially at this point in time.
StevieP said:
A. Yes, you get what you pay for sometimes. Of course people are paying $250 for an overclocked GC with waggle.
B. True, they suck, point?
C. No, Wii shares many shovelware titles with the PS2 now. Grats.
You can keep your fugly SD shovelware, I'll enjoy real next gen and gladly pay $10 more for it. The fact that all the good Wii games could (and have in some cases like Zelda) been released on a $50 GC and played as well is amazing.
Agent Icebeezy said:
Don't get me wrong, I am a Wii Supporter, but then again everything that goes up, must go down, and in this case I think sales will subdue with the passage of time, peaking up a lot with big releases. Just my opinion, but I really did put a few hours of effort in that analysis I did there.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Relix said:
I don't see it because the average Wii purchaser is probably atypical to a person that bought a PS3 or and Xbox 360. For people like us, we look at a console and we want a lot of games, spread out over a period of time to 'justify' our purchase. Wii buyers aren't like that. The Wii is like Monopoly or Uno cards. You might play it a few times a month, but you have one. Wii Sports can last someone for an eternity. Everytime my stepfather comes to my house, he plays Wii Golf. It amazes me how many people downplay this.
The Wii hasn't met demand in the U.S., yet. It had a lull in Europe and Japan in late Summer/early Fall (after complete sellouts to that point) and has since regained much of its momentum from the sellout period in those two territories. As such, Nintendo will be shipping to capacity for sometime to come, and that is at a higher level than it was shipping in 2007, worldwide.
Yet, somehow, it will be losing steam. Wonder of wonders.
Yeah, that $50 Wii Sports port (you know, the game of the generation that laid the foundation for one of the biggest turnarounds in the history of the industry) on the GC sure was a lot of fun and played just as well as the Wii version. Oh, wait.
Yes, they will be crossed. Not likely in 2008, though.
I had the difference at 4 million in August before Halo 3 came out. The biggest the difference has gotten by my numbers was 6 million with the PAL PS3 launch. With Halo 3 and the 40GB PS3, the PS360 lead has grown each month through January.
Yet, somehow, it will be losing steam. Wonder of wonders.
DeadGzuz said:
Yeah, that $50 Wii Sports port (you know, the game of the generation that laid the foundation for one of the biggest turnarounds in the history of the industry) on the GC sure was a lot of fun and played just as well as the Wii version. Oh, wait.
Neo C. said:
Yes, they will be crossed. Not likely in 2008, though.
scitek said:
I had the difference at 4 million in August before Halo 3 came out. The biggest the difference has gotten by my numbers was 6 million with the PAL PS3 launch. With Halo 3 and the 40GB PS3, the PS360 lead has grown each month through January.