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[Nutter]

Wii is on track to

1) be the best selling home console in U.S. history
2) have the highest selling game in U.S. history
3) have the highest overall software sales in U.S. history (not counting Wii Sports)



On a totally different note ...

Just curious, but would anyone be surprised if the PS3 version of GTAIV sold less than 1 million in its first five days (to the end of the April NPD period)? 1 million in one month (let alone 5 days) is not something that happened much last generation, and I think it might've only happened on consoles with over a 10 million userbase at the time. Obviously this generation is different with both Wii and 360 having games debut > 1 million and neither are at 10 million users in the U.S., yet. Therefore, it's definitely possible for the PS3 version of GTAIV to cross 1 million in five days, but would anyone be surprised if it didn't?

The thing that I am still confused about is that all GTA's for PS2 debuted at around 1.5 million each (1 week) of course the next 2 months they sold another 1.5 m each. (was this intentional or some other wacky thing i am not seeing), in any case. i still think PS3 version will be right around 1 million. With the 360 version being closer to 2m (1st month)

 

[donny2112]

The thing that I am still confused about is that all GTA's for PS2 debuted at around 1.5 million each (1 week) of course the next 2 months they sold another 1.5 m each.

I don't have launch numbers for GTAIII on the PS2, but it was < 2 million by the end of 2001. Therefore with December being included in there, I think it likely debuted below 1 million in October 2001. That's the only game I wasn't really sure about from last gen.

 

[Dragon]

That's fine. It's noble they are aiming for that.

That said, ball's not really in their court here. FFVII enjoys the status of being the RPG with the largest impact on the genre. You have to go back to the origins of the genre to find anything as influential, and in terms of North America, you aren't going to find another RPG that had the impact FFVII did. RPGs on consoles were a barely viable genre before FFVII. After FFVII, they became one of the most popular genres. That's massive. And more importantly, it can only be done once.

In other words, stuff like this doesn't come around every generation. There is absolutely nothing we've seen so far to indicate that FFXIII will shake up the series more than FFXII did, and I wouldn't say FFXII had anywhere near the impact on RPGs that FFVII did.

Now I'm sure FFXIII will be very good, and for the Nomura fans, an extra-special treat as it marks his return to the series. I'm sure it will sell quite well and many people will be very happy with it. However, it can do all of this without ever coming into FFVII's neighborhood.

I agree with a lot of this, but FFXIII will be coming onto a system that is absolutely starved for RPGs (there will be maybe one to two decent RPGs by the time it lands). It won't be the genre moving game that it was 11 years ago.

 

[Rice-Eater]

I don't have launch numbers for GTAIII on the PS2, but it was < 2 million by the end of 2001. Therefore with December being included in there, I think it likely debuted below 1 million in October 2001. That's the only game I wasn't really sure about from last gen.

I don't know the numbers, but GTA3 first month numbers weren't that great. It debut at #2 behind Devil May Cry. But then word of mouth carried it to huge numbers in November and December.

 

[BigDug13]

Noone knew what to expect from GTA3. Especially people who had played the first two top-down games. I didn't even know until I played Mafia and was talking to a guy working at Frys about how much I enjoyed that game (I talked about how I enjoyed the freedom to roam the city). He told me if I liked that, I should check out GTA3, which was also out on PC by that time.

But after that, I bought a PS2 for GTA:VC, then after selling it later, bought a PSTwo (thin) for GTA:SA.

Basically the later 2 games are more of an indication of how the franchise performs, and not GTA3's numbers.

 

[donny2112]

Basically the later 2 games are more of an indication of how the franchise performs, and not GTA3's numbers.

Definitely. Usually the first is a slow-burner, but then people know they like it and jump immediately on the sequel(s). However, VC and SA both debuted > 1 million on a system with > 10 million users, too.

 

[jax (old)]

Amazed at how long this thread has gotten considering the derth of information in here. This is the first time I've popped into a NPD thread in a while but losing the extensive sales info has made all the speculation/discussion somewhat limited no? But still these many pages??

 

[funkmastergeneral]

Amazed at how long this thread has gotten considering the derth of information in here. This is the first time I've popped into a NPD thread in a while but losing the extensive sales info has made all the speculation/discussion somewhat limited no? But still these many pages??

console wars

 

[Jiggy]

This is the first time I've popped into a NPD thread in a while but losing the extensive sales info has made all the speculation/discussion somewhat limited no?

On the other hand, the radical theories of first-timers and the delusional become slightly more difficult to disprove when fewer facts are available.

 

[RBH]

I still wish that we could've gotten some numbers for Ninja Gaiden DS (even though it probably bombed).

 

[Proven]

Ok, after going through the last few pages, someone clear this up for me:

Isn't Nomura working on the Versus FFXIII and not the FFXIII with Lightning?

 

[HK-47]

Ok, after going through the last few pages, someone clear this up for me:

Isn't Nomura working on the Versus FFXIII and not the FFXIII with Lightning?

Both

 

[Proven]

Both

I assume he's also got his hands on the cell phone version too...

 

[Htown]

I think you guys are severely overestimating sales for GTA 4. By A LOT.

 

[donny2112]

Amazed at how long this thread has gotten considering the derth of information in here. This is the first time I've popped into a NPD thread in a while but losing the extensive sales info has made all the speculation/discussion somewhat limited no? But still these many pages??

They were drastically shorter when we had fuller info. Lack of hard numbers to refute/support claims leads to more pages as both sides try to "convince" the other. I prefer the shorter threads with more info myself. :lol

 

[HK-47]

I assume he's also got his hands on the cell phone version too...

The whole project as of now, who knows about future games. And the 3 KH games in dev.

I worry for his health sometimes even though I am not really a fan of his designs...

 

[Jumpman23]

I for one am just glad the industry remains healthy within this time of recession.

 

[starship]

4 million in 5 days is probably going to be on the low end of the aggregate estimates. The user bases are smaller, but people are buying HD software (especially 360) at a much higher and faster rate than PS2 owners. Remember, the PS2 was $150 (I think) when GTA:SA and a vast number of those owners were casual gamers. The PS3 and 360 are still expensive enough that most of the owners are presumably more serious gamers (aside from the more obvious point that the Wii has completely captured the "casual" market).

The other thing that I don't understand is that in an NPD thread, you are freely mixing worldwide numbers (for GTA:SA and PS2 user base) and US numbers (360 and PS3 userbases) in an attempt to further prove your point.

Here's how I see it going down - GTA4 will sell 4-6 million copies in the US (at a 2:1 360S3 rate) while Mario Kart will sell 1-1.5 million copies. Smash has already done most of its damage, so it will have a huge dropoff, and there is no big 360 release to pull Vegas 2 and AoT numbers. So if we look at the middle of my predictions, GTA4 will sell 5 million while Mario Kart sells 1.25 million. If the rest of the top 7 average 200k, that puts the "other" total at 2.65 million, which is very close to a 2:1 ratio for GTA4.

Are you serious?
If GTA IV sells 5m on both platforms combined at a 2:1 360S3 rate, it means 360 version sells 3.33m in 5 days or more than Halo 3 in less time. This is not going to happen.

 

[TurtleSnatcher]

The numbers of last month are so crazy.

Smash Bros I'm still amazed sells so consistently well still.

BTW - What was LTD for Smash Melee?

 

[Firestorm]

The numbers of last month are so crazy.

Smash Bros I'm still amazed sells so consistently well still.

BTW - What was LTD for Smash Melee?

Worldwide is 7.09 mil. Japan was 1,498,000 (Brawl passed it). Haven't heard anything reliable for USA other than Wikipedia saying 4.0#.

 

[Jokeropia]

I know I don't, Mithos. It's actually the first time I've just not cared about a main FF game, though FFXII was dangerously close. I just feel like everything I enjoyed about FF is no longer considered important to the series, and that all of the people whose work I enjoyed on the series have all moved on.

IAWTP.

The user bases are smaller, but people are buying HD software (especially 360) at a much higher and faster rate than PS2 owners.

It's pretty much a given that they're buying HD software at a higher and faster rate than PS2 owners, but as far as software sales overall go it's actually the other way around.

 

[dammitmattt]

Are you serious?
If GTA IV sells 5m on both platforms combined at a 2:1 360S3 rate, it means 360 version sells 3.33m in 5 days or more than Halo 3 in less time. This is not going to happen.

GTA has a broader appeal than Halo and the 360 userbase is almost 50% bigger than it was when Halo 3 came out. I would be surprised if GTA4 on the 360 alone doesn't have a bigger opening than Halo 3.

 

[Rated-Rsuperstar]

GTA has a broader appeal than Halo and the 360 userbase is almost 50% bigger than it was when Halo 3 came out. I would be surprised if GTA4 on the 360 alone doesn't have a bigger opening than Halo 3.

I agree.

 

[AlphaSnake]

we kinda had them earlier

Where? I only saw some bit about the Wii in Canada. I want to see X360 and PS3 numbers.

 

[Pachael]

Ignore - repost of a similar post on the Sims' franchise.

 

[ivysaur12]

No NHM numbers?

 

[liuelson]

Amazed at how long this thread has gotten considering the derth of information in here. This is the first time I've popped into a NPD thread in a while but losing the extensive sales info has made all the speculation/discussion somewhat limited no? But still these many pages??

Seconded. For me, the interesting data was the 700k sales of Wii hardware, which is still apparently supply-constrained. For those who understand these things (and have access to NPD data) - is there any way to use historical NPD data to estimate the equilibrium weekly sales of Wii hardware if supply were not constrained?

 

[Markster]

GTA has a broader appeal than Halo and the 360 userbase is almost 50% bigger than it was when Halo 3 came out. I would be surprised if GTA4 on the 360 alone doesn't have a bigger opening than Halo 3.

Wait--
is this really the case?

50% growth in just the last 7 months? No wonder MS is sitting on their laurels.

 

[donny2112]

50% growth in just the last 7 months? No wonder MS is sitting on their laurels.

It's not really that big of a deal. They doubled their userbase in the previous similar period (Oct-06 to Mar-07), and they were still short-sighted for not dropping the price then. It's a lot easier to double or +50% across 6 months that include Christmas when you're still well under 10 million.

They should've dropped the price before GTAIV. They may end up being profitable for this entire fiscal year, but it'll probably cost them a sizable chunk of potential marketshart to Sony, in my opinion.

 

[jvm]

Wait--
is this really the case?

50% growth in just the last 7 months? No wonder MS is sitting on their laurels.

As of August 2007: 6.2M
As of March 2008: 9.9M
Difference is 3.7M

3.7M is 60% of 6.2M. So the installed base is actually 60% larger, unless I'm just waaaay too tired.

Turned in my next-gen.biz article tonight. Now I get to read through this thread in detail! Woohoo...

 

[VultureDude]

No NHM numbers?

didn't we get confirmation or something that it was over 100k or something? or was that a false rumor?

 

[Lobster]

didn't we get confirmation or something that it was over 100k or something? or was that a false rumor?

That was 1 or 2 months ago.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Wait--
is this really the case?

50% growth in just the last 7 months? No wonder MS is sitting on their laurels.

Well, holidays'll do that. After December one could say the X360 userbase had increased by 29% in the last two months.

 

[Dunlop]

As of August 2007: 6.2M
As of March 2008: 9.9M
Difference is 3.7M

3.7M is 60% of 6.2M. So the installed base is actually 60% larger, unless I'm just waaaay too tired.

Turned in my next-gen.biz article tonight. Now I get to read through this thread in detail! Woohoo...

Sounds right, when put that way I guess I understand why they do not feel pressed to lower the price so soon.

Not sure how anyone can expect GTAIV to outperfom Halo3 (meaning the insane attach rate for 360 owners). overall, I definately it will sell higher

 

[dammitmattt]

Sounds right, when put that way I guess I understand why they do not feel pressed to lower the price so soon.

Not sure how anyone can expect GTAIV to outperfom Halo3 (meaning the insane attach rate for 360 owners). overall, I definately it will sell higher

It won't match the Halo 3 attach rate out of the gate, but I think it will eventually catch up in a few months.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Uh, no. For some reason, the thread isn't showing up in the sales archive, but here's another site that has July 2007 NPD numbers:

http://www.nintendic.com/news/780

# Xbox 360 - 198,400
# Playstation 3 - 98,500

This is the first time, I think ever, though it's possible that the launch window was an exception, where the PS3 is even close to 360's hardware numbers, and that's not due to MS's weakness, since their numbers have seen modest increases as well. Nobody in July 2007 thought it was conceivable that Sony and MS would be even with each other for the foreseeable future.

RROD essentially obliterated the 200 dollar price advantage Microsoft had at the start of the generation. If they're not dropping in advance of GTAIV, they're not dropping any time soon. Both companies are about in the same position to price drop, Sony because of the expense of the PS3, MS because of the billion-dollar clusterfuck that was their extended warranty.

Did you even read your own link? Those are the June NPD numbers.

July 2007 looked like this, due to the first PS3 price drop:

1. Wii: 425,000
2. Nintendo DS: 405,000
3. PlayStation 2: 222,000
4. PlayStation Portable: 214,000
5. Xbox 360: 170,000
6. Playstation 3: 159,000
7. Game Boy Advance: 87,000

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/leve...monday-morning-quarterback-for-july-2007.aspx

And yes, there was a large contingent of people who thought the PS3 had finally achieved sales parity with the 360, and then MS pulled the rug out from underneath that assumption by dropping the price a week after the start of the new month.

It's difficult to explain exactly why the PS3 has again crept up to parity with the 360 here in the states (after having been beaten handily over the holiday period at the same price point); the most obvious explanations would be the Blu Ray victory party held in January, final phasing out of the 80GB models, or rather quick price fatigue from MS' meager initial price drop.

And it's difficult to explain why MS has allowed it to continue, though the most obvious explanations are probably a combination of profitability, the un-bundling from the post-Christmas period and the problems that caused with supply, their huge hopes that GTAIV will push systems regardless of price, that they're hoping to undercut Sony at a time most inconvenient for them (like say, the launch of one of Sony's marquee franchises), or that they're hoping to drop at the launch of one of their own exclusive franchises.

As has been explained countless times in the various financial threads that pop up, the RROD is a sunk cost. It only effects the quarter/fiscal year in which it was reported. I would find it very difficult to believe that Sony would be in the same shape to drop an additional $100 off their price if MS were to drop the Premium to say, $250, at any point this year.

 

[Opiate]

Haven't seen this posted yet, and I do think it's relevant, although I'm sure it will also serve to stoke the flames ever higher.

LTD attach rates in America thus far

Xbox 360: 7.5
PS3: 4.6
Wii: 5.3

The source of this information is the NPD.

 

[FrankT]

Haven't seen this posted yet, and I do think it's relevant, although I'm sure it will also serve to stoke the flames ever higher.

LTD attach rates in America thus far

Xbox 360: 7.5
PS3: 4.6
Wii: 5.3

The source of this information is the NPD.

This been published? Been waiting on these figures for a while now, interesting to say the least.

 

[Opiate]

I cannot link to the source, as it has been banned from NeoGaf. However, the article specifically cites NPD as the original source of this information.

 

[Flakster99]

I cannot link to the source, as it has been banned from NeoGaf. However, the article specifically cites NPD as the original source of this information.

This won't end well.

 

[FrankT]

I cannot link to the source, as it has been banned from NeoGaf. However, the article specifically cites NPD as the original source of this information.

From the site we do not dare name? If so, this could be big. In that, if they are getting insider info, copy protected material that is, and publishing and/or using it themselves this could be a whammy for em. NPD is already pretty POd it would seem. Deeper into the rabbit hole we go.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

They were drastically shorter when we had fuller info. Lack of hard numbers to refute/support claims leads to more pages as both sides try to "convince" the other. I prefer the shorter threads with more info myself. :lol

The reason I fell in love with GAF actually.

Getting so many figures for games, completely unabridged. Shame it had to change, but sooner or later the NPD group had to stop it.

 

[Chris FOM]

No, it's not from the mega-banned site. One of the lower banned sites. Think a site that has a name similar to a controller usually used for fighting games or flight sims. Like an analog stick, but you use your entire hand to hold it instead of just your thumb. And they said they contacted NPD directly for the numbers and were given them. They claimed the numbers were not leaked.

 

[Accident]

From the site we do not dare name? If so, this could be big. In that, if they are getting insider info, copy protected material that is, and publishing and/or using it themselves this could be a whammy for em. NPD is already pretty POd it would seem. Deeper into the rabbit hole we go.

Its from joystick, and its not the first time they have posted the attach rates numbers from NPD.

 

[FrankT]

Its from joystick, and its not the first time they have posted the attach rates numbers from NPD.

Yea, that was where I was checking. Still not seeing the article, but looking.


nvm I see it now.

 

[Firestorm]

I cannot link to the source, as it has been banned from NeoGaf. However, the article specifically cites NPD as the original source of this information.

If it's Joyst&#105;q it's okay, but if it's ioi's site.. yeah.

 

[D.Lo]

So, with userbases of 9.9m/8.8m/4.05m 360/Wii/PS3:

360 - 74.25 million games sold in the US total (29 months)

Wii - 46.64 million games sold in the US total (17 months)

PS3 - 18.63 million games sold in the US total (17 months)

 

[Captain Smoker]

So, with userbases of 9.9m/8.8m/4.05m 360/Wii/PS3:

360 - 74.25 million games sold in the US total (29 months)

Wii - 46.64 million games sold in the US total (17 months)

PS3 - 18.63 million games sold in the US total (17 months)

And numbers for March:

Wii: 6.623.883
360: 4.949.670
PS3: 1.900.000


Wii wins four months in a row [with Wii Play].

 

[starship]

And numbers for March:

Wii: 6.623.883
360: 4.949.670
PS3: 1.900.000


Wii wins four months in a row [with Wii Play].

Where did you get these numbers?

 

[Captain Smoker]

Where did you get these numbers?

I´ve just subtracted March LTD numbers from February LTD numbers. ^^


PS3 numbers are official.