What's wrong with Ingrid? She'd be amazing.
Everything is wrong with Ingrid. She's the Marie-Rose of Street Fighter. Awful AWFUL character.
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That aside ;however, this implies a 5 year plan has likely always been in place and it's just further cemented going forward.
-Actual SF4 release plan-
2008- 16 character arcade playtest
2009- 10 new characters added at console launch
2010- 10 new characters added with "SUPER" version update
2011- "arcade edition" released , adds 4 characters
2012- "AE 2012 patch" for home use adds same 4 characters and re-balances game
2013- -nothing- (SF4 is basically wrapped up by this point)
2014- "Ultra edition" released , a re-balance of 4 complete with 5 new characters , new game mechanics , I consider it a second tail of release, like a re-master in a way
2015- "Ultra edition" ported to PS4 , it's final resting place, last DLC pack released is halloween costumes
So , in a way SF4's main lifespan from initial arcade beta until the end of AE 2012(which was meant to be the last stand for that game) was only actually 4 years. Then, after a SFxT didn't do as well as was hoped they re-purposed what they could in an attempt to revitalize the fans and pros with Ultra and it got another 2 years. In effect, SF5 will get that "bonus" year included with the initial bump of support is all. Those waiting for "a version that just has everything" will be undoubtedly waiting for a 2021 PS5 remaster before the inevitable launch of SF6 in maybe 2022.
So , knowing that through the full operative lifespan ( ignoring 2012/2013 as they added little substantial content ) you've got 5 years of full support over 7 years, much like a terrible car loan ! The end result is that the games initial roster of 16 characters grew to 44 characters, so over those 5 years , 28 new characters were added.
In SF5 we've already had 6 additions to the initial cast of 16 so hopefully that implies at least 22 more new characters of the remaining 4 years of this support plan. This unfortunately means we might only be getting 6 characters a season which will just barely push the end character total up from SF4's 44 ... SFV will end up with 46.
Course I'd love it if they just did an 8 character season for season 2,3 and 4 and season 5 was the "bonus" "wrap up" season that maybe only gets a couple characters and some game play tweaks to close out the game but that's just because I'm greedy for more characters now.
Also - for those calling this game a dumpster fire / failure/waste of money - esports is a huge thing and capcom is right to try and take the worlds most recognizable fighting game and push it on that big stage , I hope they can start really cleaning up SFV's image going forward. I also don't feel this game has been as huge a failure financially as some might think.
It didn't start development until after Ultra SF4 went gold , which was mid 2014. The first act of SFV's development cycle was the "Omega Mode" added to SF4 , this was built in a couple months as a way to cheaply test out how 5 could operate. The reveal trailer for SFV at PSX in 2014 was , I'd argue - a 4 month old build of the game , they'd completed only the 1 background as a proof of concept and only Ryu and Chun existed in the game but relied upon SF4's animations. This isn't some enormous AAAA product despite what capcom would suggest (the marketing guy tried to say it was back in 2015). The core game and animations /balancing were all done in house at capcom while DLC outfits and some of the stages were cheaply outsourced all over the world. Even the story mode "a shadow falls" was co-developed with the assistance of Squarenix (who lent their mocap studio to the cause). Japanese game costs are lower than western games , average salary is closer to 50,000 per employee compared to the 90,000 big time western devs use (eastern europe wins the budget game with 25-30,000 USD per employees which is how Witcher 3 cost less then a billion dollars to make).
Going by the credits scattered around various parts of the game and online , only around 100 people worked on SF5 , count it's dev cycle as roughly 18 months (it was very rushed if you couldn't tell by how bare bones it was day 1). 50,000 X 100 staff = 5,000,000 per year X 1.5 years = 7.5 million in development costs. Season 1 costs (all costumes, stages, a shadow falls , 6 characters) = 8 months or 2/3rds of a year which is maybe 3.5 million dollars. In other words, I could see SFV costing (up until the release of Urien) about 12 million to allow for some overhead room.
I believe Capcoms arrangement with sony paid for the PS4 port of SF4 and also gave capcom their entire marketing budget for SF5's launch as well as season 1 of the pro tour (this includes the prize pool for the capcom cup in 2015 and 2016). As part of this exchange , Capcom probably had to agree to keep the games' support going for the lifespan of the PS4.
The sales data that has come out mentions 1.4 million shipped (which includes digital sales) , this tells me that they pressed 1 million discs but a number of them are still floating around at huge discounts (15$ on amazon for example) , it also implies 400,000 copies sold digitally between PC/PS4 and from what I understand that split is about 50/50. It's pretty much impossible to ascertain exactly how many physical copies have sold so far but it's not unreasonable to assume 250,000 copies sold at full price and perhaps 250,000 sold at a 50% or higher discount. The remaining copies will be sold for little to no money so they may as well not count anyway.
So 35$ X 250,000 + 200,000 digital(I'll assume the same split of full price/half price here)
equals - roughly 16 million in revenue
Then, 17$ X the same 450,000 copies = roughly 8 million in revenue
This implies that game sales are in the range of 24 million dollars. Obviously my numbers could be a bit high but even a low-balled estimate has to be at least 20 million dollars.
Season 1 DLC - this number will be harder to grasp but I've heard the prize pool for capcom cup got inflated by about 100,000$ thanks to the pro tour DLC pack. It was 20 USD for that package and 30% of those DLC sales were going straight to that pot. That implies 300,000$ worth of that DLC package sold which works out to 15,000 players buying it. It's kind of a shitty DLC package to be honest so I think it's a good one to use as a baseline on how many players buy DLC in general. 15K players out of what I estimate above to be 900,000 owners is pretty low , it works out to just 2% of owners , even if I bump that up to what capcom expected from the pro tour DLC (150,000$ pot bonus) , that's still only 3% of owners. That has to have come from some kind of internal metric so let's use it - every single piece of paid (non fight money) DLC is purchased by 3% of players. Also, the pro tour DLC itself , what doesn't go into the pot bonus is spent entirely on pro tour related stuff , so I have to minus the other 200,000$ that earned.
What we end up with then is 14 battle outfits at 5$ a pop (DLC characters came with their battle outfit if you bought the season pass plus most players got a code depending where they bought the game that gave them 1 other outfit and the season pass included another 1 as a free bonus) + 6 swimsuits for 5$ each + 6 halloween outfits for 5$ each
This works out to at least 26 costumes at 5$ a pop which equals 130$ X (roughly)24,000 users which equals about 3 million dollars.
Finally, you've gotta compute the season pass as kind of it's own thing I think , so it was also 20$ , I think it's probably safer to say as much as 5% (that's 1 in 20 users) ended up buying that . So at absolute most , maybe 1 million dollars extra.
All of this text and math means that Capcom spent 12 million dollars of their own money and SFV to date has earned them 20-28 million dollars revenue.
Even if they had to pay for half the marketing budget , they'd be looking at a break even proposition right now. Going forward I kind of doubt the team size adding content to this game will be as big or expensive as the initial 18 months was too. I'd be amazed if even 50 people are floating around this project even with outsourcing involved for costume packs. So perhaps a minimum investment of 50X50K a year = 2.5 million $. The real number may well be closer to 5 million tops but still, that means 20 million invested in this game over the next 4 years. It won't take much to recoup that cost , especially if they manage to get a free to play version and an arcade release going in Japan( which is happening). So , this game is already a success .. just not the HUGE AMAZING one that capcom was hoping for.
For the record , if this game HAD sold the 2 million copies capcom wanted by the end of march , it would have had it's entire 5 year plan paid for up front and every single piece of DLC would have been profit. So of course that was the lofty goal, what better investment is there than one that pays for itself in a couple years and then grows substantially for 4-5 years afterwards ? Instead a dollar invested in SFV now is still only worth a dollar.