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Pach-Attack!: Are Nintendo’s Projections Serious?

2MF said:
For a guy who is supposed to be immersed in the games business all day he sure makes some strange statements.
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Indeed. But we are stuck with him since there's virtually no one else the media takes seriously when it comes to gaming-business stories.
Forget the media, he is the only analyst that regularly makes statement about the business-side of our hobby... Add to that the secretive attitude toward sales numbers maintained by all the actors!

I miss NPD-leak days :(
 
SmokyDave said:
9M - 0.5M = 8.5M
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715d1348219178-2012-what-my-chances-interview-not-sure-if-serious.png
 
2MF said:
He also said "GTA5 probably the best selling game of all time" (which it's not even close to).

For a guy who is supposed to be immersed in the games business all day he sure makes some strange statements.
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?

GTA5 is right near the very tippy top in game sales and could well be the best-selling by revenue if not units .

His interpretation of Iwatas comment is also shared by most people, or at least isn't unusual.

Wierd things to try and knock him for.

Dv8thwonder said:
Not will but can. I don't understand why if something worked before it can't work for Nintendo but if Sony, Microsoft or a 3rd party publisher does it annually throughout a generation its automatically a success.
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The Wii U already isn't working as the Wii did before. Its the slowest selling Nintendo home console ever by a looooooong margin. Its already had its big mulitplayer Mario game.

The difference between holiday 2009 and now is this; Wii was sold out for 3 years before those holidays, Wii U hasn't sold for a year before these holidays.
 
At the moment....9 million seems to be crazy. To be frank they don't even seem to be trying.

Here in the UK the marketing for Wii U is almost non-existant. Nothing has changed in stores from what I've seen..and I've seen no advertising on mainstream tv channels. No ads for Sonic, no ads for Wonderful 101, no ads for Mario & Sonic at the Winter Olympics (checking the charts across Amazon in Europe the Wii London Olympics game is charting higher than the new Wii U game)..the only ad I saw for Wind Waker was on daytime tv on a smaller channel..

....on the flipside I'm seeing a fair few ads for Pokemon and Animal Crossing on the 3DS.

I don't know how Nintendo expects to sell when they aren't marketing the hardware or the software..and have very little stock of either in stores.

If they don't bust open their marketing piggy bank soon... not only will they struggle to make half that target..they might struggle to even make a 3rd.
 
Dv8thwonder said:
http://www.medstudentsonline.com.au/attachments/f35/715d1348219178-2012-what-my-chances-interview-not-sure-if-serious.png[IMG][/QUOTE]
The target is for this financial year, not lifetime to date. At the six month mark they had shifted half a million consoles.

Email that meme image to Iwata.
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Tripon said:
http://www.gametrailers.com/videos/r2c0yy/pach-attack--are-nintendo---s-projections-serious-

And no, Pachter didn't admit he made a mistake saying that Nintendo would not hold a Q2 investor meeting.
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It's understandable...Nintendo gave me the wrong information for the investor meeting (messed up AM and PM) and didn't send a follow-up correspondence with a correction because I wasn't going. :-(


Iwata is being firm on his FY 3/14 guidance because he wants to save face and not revise earlier than absolutely necessary. Q3 he'll be forced to taper expectations, though. Everyone is expecting a revision then...100 billion JPY operating profit is insane and no one actually believes Nintendo will achieve it.

Some say it's theoretically possible, though...but Nintendo would have to have an extraordinarily successful Holiday season.
 
Chû Totoro;89249263 said:
I thought there was more than 0.5 million Wii U sold ww... I may be wrong (it happens) but I was really thinking otherwise (maybe should go more often in sales threads)
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It's sold to retail since april. Last quarter they shipped negative numbers to europe. Not kidding, they recalled more basic packs than they sold premiums.

Their target is 9m from april 2013 to april 2014
 
I think they'll be lucky to sell 2 million by then, let alone 8.5 million.

I would dread to be Iwata once those numbers come in.
 
Chû Totoro;89248987 said:
Yeah I know but people keep saying that there is 9m to go. 4.5 / 5m is what's left.

It's still possible. Wii U is the only next gen system in Japan : there is a quite good number of games both available and to come while in EU and US I still see some place for decent sales.

Seriously this is far from being a completely unreachable number. November and december are representing a very big share of whole year sales. Don't forget that.
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Let's assume that the Wii U sales explode this holiday season.
What I think "explodes" means in sales:
Japan: 1.5m by march '14
Europe: 2m by march '14
US: 3m by march '14
Total: 6.5m

So, while this will be a major turn around for the Wii U and a true revival, Iwata still needs 2 more millions. Yeah, good luck with that Iwata :/
 
Believe it or not, his estimate of 3.5-4 million for the FY is actually very generous. That works to to roughly 115k-135k every week for the rest of the year. Either of those would represent a 900%+ increase from the previous quarter's average.

EDIT:
400%, I suck at the maths.
 
Yoshihiro Mori declared on April 25th, 2013 that the upcoming full-year fiscal forecast (April 01, 2013 - March 31st, 2014) would be the following:

Wii U Hardware
Projection: 9.0 million shipped to retailers in one year (April 01, 2013 - March 31st, 2014)

When Yoshihiro Mori announced this on April 25th, the Wii U had sold:

Wii U Hardware
3.45 million shipped to retailers (launch - March 31st, 2013)

So:

3.45 million shipped to retailers (launch - March 31st 2013)
Projection: 9.0 million shipped (April 01, 2013 - March 31st, 2014, 12 months)
=
Wii U Hardware
12.45 million shipped to retailers lifetime-to-date projection by March 31st, 2014





Nintendo announced on July 31st, 2013 that the Wii U had sold:

Wii U Hardware
160,000 shipped to retailers (April 01, 2013 - June 31st, 2013, 3 months)

So let's adjust the projection:

3.61 million shipped to retailers (launch - June 30th, 2013)
Projection: 8.84 million remaining (July 1st, 2013 - March 31st, 2014, 9 months)
=
Wii U Hardware
12.45 million shipped to retailers lifetime-to-date projection by March 31st, 2014





Nintendo announced on October 30th, 2013 that the Wii U had sold:

Wii U Hardware
300,000 shipped to retailers (July 1st, 2013 - September 30th, 2013, 3 months)

So let's adjust the projection:

3.91 million shipped to retailers (launch - September 30th, 2013)
Projection: 8.54 million remaining (October 1st, 2013 - March 31st, 2014, 6 months)
=
Wii U Hardware
12.45 million shipped to retailers lifetime-to-date projection by March 31st, 2014
 
airmangataosenai said:
Believe it or not, his estimate of 3.5-4 million for the FY is actually very generous. That works to to roughly 115k-135k every week for the rest of the year. Either of those would represent a 900%+ increase from the previous quarter's average.
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5 million from october to march
25 weeks
250 k each week ww

Like I said, hard but still possible. Seriously. People should just write down the numbers and just look at what projection really are.

Edit : ok I've read the post above. Now I look stupid :/

Well if I misunderstood and you're right then this would be more than a miracle if they achieve the target number of 12.45m by march :(

Good luck Iwata...
 
Unless they plan on surprising us with Smash bros or Mario Kart in January there is no way it'll happen. Between Next gen, new iPads, the rumored price drop of old gen consoles, and Nintendo's inability to market the thing... I'd be surprised if they get much more than half of that.
 
Nintendo should just buy back all there own stock (they have lots of money), keep things private, and continue to live in there own bubble.
 
To be honest. The only way that they even get close to the number if Nintendo moved Mario Kart to March or late February. Word Wide release.
 
Why do people comment in sales threads without first reading and understanding the quarterly reports direct from the firms involved. This is a black and white discussion not a opinion piece.

Also...I'm using my outside voice.
 
Kspraydad said:
Why do people comment in sales threads without first reading and understanding the quarterly reports direct from the firms involved. This is a black and white discussion not a opinion piece.

Also...I'm using my outside voice.
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So Neogaf has turned to black and white now?
 
MogCakes said:
Let's not start this shit again. Nintendo's handheld division is doing just fine, but it's pretty obvious the Wii U isn't where it needs to be. The world doesn't have it out for Nintendo.
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Go mobile, go 3rd party, stop being you nintendo

Maybe the hate will stop once the next gen launches are successful and out of the way.
 
Kspraydad said:
Why do people comment in sales threads without first reading and understanding the quarterly reports direct from the firms involved. This is a black and white discussion not a opinion piece.

Also...I'm using my outside voice.
Click to expand...

Its best to always use your outside voice on GAF except for very special pile on occasions.

There really is no debating this question since anyone that thinks they can sell 8.5 million consoles or even ship that many through channels doesn't have the capacity for rational thought. They're not going to match it, and there are going to repercussions for Iwata. The severity of which depends how badly longterm investors don't want to lose the game or are content with the status quo out of seeming apathy.

What Pachter should have touched upon is that one reason they havent revised yet other than Iwata buying time is because they're just not sure how much to revise down by because the WiiU is just that unprecedented a failure and they don't want to engage in the damaging perceptibility of having to revise down twice in a short space of time.
 
Pie and Beans said:
Its best to always use your outside voice on GAF except for very special pile on occasions.

There really is no debating this question since anyone that thinks they can sell 8.5 million consoles or even ship that many through channels doesn't have the capacity for rational thought. They're not going to match it, and there are going to repercussions for Iwata. The severity of which depends how badly longterm investors don't want to lose the game or are content with the status quo out of seeming apathy.

What Pachter should have touched upon is that one reason they havent revised yet other than Iwata buying time is because they're just not sure how much to revise down by because the WiiU is just that unprecedented a failure and they don't want to engage in the damaging perceptibility of having to revise down twice in a short space of time.
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Either that or he's hoping the PS4 and XBox One will sell out and people will then buy Wii U's instead. It really is a flawless plan that has been secretly in the making for months.
 
Louis Cyphre said:
Either that or he's hoping the PS4 and XBox One will sell out and people will then buy Wii U's instead. It really is a flawless plan that has been secretly in the making for months.
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Well at least the $50 drop put an end to the absurd position of the PS4 being just $50 more. Now its a full $100 away!!
 
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