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[TheCloser]

Less of a difference between a Phone and a Tablet.
And both the PS4 and Xbone are using the same microarchitecture as is used in Tablets.
Architecture that was already obsolete when both consoles launched, and is only going to become more so over their respective lifespans.

I have been reading your posts throughout this thread and the conclusion i've come to is this, you need to stop posting. A tablet will never outperform a console as long as said tablet is still dependent on a battery as it's primary power source. Tablet's and phones have specific thermal and power budgets that are significantly inferior to that of a dedicated console. You can argue about the need and viability of such devices in tomorrow's market but that is a different argument all together.

Chip manufacturers are focusing on the mobile market because it's the biggest market chip market in the world. All performance efficiencies can be passed on to products in their other markets, ie desktop and consoles. We see this with the maxwell chip being launched by nVidia and i expect to see more of this in the future.

If we take a look at this: video

We can easily see that even the latest ipad 4 is simply unable to compete with an xbox 360. Let's remember that the xbox 360 was released 2005 so the hardware is essentially 10 years old. The deficiencies of the ipad are evident for all to see in the video above.

Honestly, i believe you are just here to troll. Your arguments are poor and display your complete lack of understanding when discussing the subject matter at hand. Consoles will not die or be replaced, they will evolve. They might converge with other devices to be an all in one box but there will always be a segment of people that prefer to play their games on a "bigger screen". We have already seen evidence of their evolution. Consoles started out as gaming devices and have evolved into multimedia devices. The next logical evolution for the "console" is directly tied to the evolution of the distribution of media. When cable evolves to the point where it is web based like netflix, then the console will simply replace the cable box underneath your tv. Cable providers are already aware of this and are looking to transition from an unlimited based internet service to a cap based one. It is an effort to recoup some of the revenue that they will lose from the death of cable.

 

[Curufinwe]

I have been reading your posts throughout this thread and the conclusion i've come to is this, you need to stop posting. A tablet will never outperform a console as long as said tablet is still dependent on a battery as it's primary power source. Tablet's and phones have specific thermal and power budgets that are significantly inferior to that of a dedicated console.

Chip manufacturers are focusing on the mobile market because it's the biggest market chip market in the world. All performance efficiencies can be passed on to products in their other markets, ie desktop and consoles. We see this with the maxwell chip being launched by nVidia and i expect to see more of this in the future.

If we take a look at this: video

We can easily see that even the latest ipad 4 is simply unable to compete with an xbox 360. Let's remember that the xbox 360 was released 2005 so the hardware is essentially 10 years old. The deficiencies of the ipad are evident for all to see in the video above.

Honestly, i believe you are just here to troll. Your arguments are poor and display your complete lack of understanding when discussing the subject matter at hand.

Wow, this post really nails it.

 

[Spongebob]

At the rate phones are increasing in size, by the time they replace consoles, they'll be as large as consoles.

 

[HolyBaikal]

Well... aside from the fact I don't like that word very much.

And while there's a lot of things I don't agree with Pachter on. Like he doesn't seem to like Japanese video games...

I think he's right about this. And I hope it happens, too. I'm sure that it's going to happen, but I hope it happens soon rather than later.

I don't think that consoles will disappear. But I think they'll become rare like vinyl and things like that. I think that consoles are kind of outdated, and we should move on to better technologies to play video games.
Consoles are a little bit inconvenient and no longer necessary, I think.

 

[Disaster Nebraska]

Makes sense from Pachter's perspective. A huge part of his job isn't analysis but "market nudging". When was the last time he predicted the death of AAA titles or large 3rd party publishers? Those are his constituents...

The death of consoles would create a vacuum that 3rd parties and certain companies (Microsoft being one) could exploit, leaving Japanese devs like Nintendo, Sony, SEGA, S-E, CAPCOM, etc even further in the dust.

 

[Astral Dog]

Michael Patcher is a clown, i cant even take his Nintendo predictions seriously, he only says nonsense, Consoles are going to die one day,where is my analyst hat?
Sony is going to sell the most systems, how is that?
He is just obnoxious

 

[The Albatross]

I love Pachter, but this is madness.

 

[JavaMind]

Maybe ne is right... The future is stream services like PSN now... Ea access... Maybe a Xbox service? They can sell a gamepad with a pen drive and it is done

 

[Jacksinthe]

He's right. Eventually everything will be tablet or phone sized. Plug in or stream things to other devices, TVs, monitors, etc.

It won't be soon, but it will eventually get here when technology (games as a service, streaming) says it does.

 

[CosmicQueso]

As long as there are games there will be consoles.
Pachter, shut up.

EXACTLY.

And there are fewer and fewer games, and this decline will continue.

Why would the masses buy a dedicated console if few games are made for it?

And why would companies keep making games for a dwindling audience?

The reason consoles will go away is because the incremental costs of development are outpacing the consumer market. It's economics. Why risk tens or hundreds of millions of dollars making a big budget console game when there are multiple, less risky, alternatives?

Games for consoles are going away... heck that's happening now.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

I have been reading your posts throughout this thread and the conclusion i've come to is this, you need to stop posting.

The messageboard equivalent of putting your fingers in your ears and going "LALALA I CANT HEAR YOU".

A tablet will never outperform a console as long as said tablet is still dependent on a battery as it's primary power source. Tablet's and phones have specific thermal and power budgets that are significantly inferior to that of a dedicated console. You can argue about the need and viability of such devices in tomorrow's market but that is a different argument all together.

Apart from the fact it is the same argument, why do you think TDP is the primary research focus of all computer hardware manufacturers right now?
PROTIP: It's not because they're super concerned about the environment.

Chip manufacturers are focusing on the mobile market because it's the biggest market chip market in the world.

As are all middleware manufacturers (Unreal, Unity, Crytech).
As increasingly are the largest publishers (EA, Activision, Ubisoft).

So why are consoles so precious that - despite everybody increasingly moving their development efforts to the mobile and tablet space because as you admit that is where the market is - they are immune from market forces?

If we take a look at this: video

We can easily see that even the latest ipad 4 is simply unable to compete with an xbox 360. Let's remember that the xbox 360 was released 2005 so the hardware is essentially 10 years old. The deficiencies of the ipad are evident for all to see in the video above.

Like console only gamers actually give a shit about raw performance of titles as anything other than ammo for console warring.

Bioshock on the iPad is, for many people, good enough.
Console only owners have been trained to accept titles as being good enough (where "good enough" is whatever specifications their preferred vendor decided upon).
Technical imporvements in the mobile space over the next half decade will increase that threshold of "good enough", as will software improvements (such as advances in shaders and post-processing effects).

Games development is entirely smoke and mirrors; it is not impossible - fuck, it is not even unlikely that there will be cross platform titles on both current gen consoles and mobile devices that look and perform comparably within the next mobile 2 hardware cycles.

Honestly, i believe you are just here to troll. Your arguments are poor and display your complete lack of understanding when discussing the subject matter at hand.

I guess this means you're somewhere between Denial and Anger in the Kübler-Ross model about consoles being a dying format.

Consoles will not die or be replaced, they will evolve. They might converge with other devices to be an all in one box but there will always be a segment of people that prefer to play their games on a "bigger screen". We have already seen evidence of their evolution. Consoles started out as gaming devices and have evolved into multimedia devices. The next logical evolution for the "console" is directly tied to the evolution of the distribution of media. When cable evolves to the point where it is web based like netflix, then the console will simply replace the cable box underneath your tv. Cable providers are already aware of this and are looking to transition from an unlimited based internet service to a cap based one. It is an effort to recoup some of the revenue that they will lose from the death of cable.

Let's see how that goes.

 

[Slayven]

Over 2 gentrations? So give or take 20+ years? I can see that, unless phones hit a wall.

 

[C4Lukins]

I think what he is saying is true. I mean it has been said for years.

I am not really sure why MS specifically will foster this in. I guess if you go with Windows as a base that is where he gets that idea. The excitement over Steam machines seems to be losing a bit of traction.

But yeah it is going to take a generation or two, but we will get to that singular small device that is a phone, and a roku, and a console, and a computer and it will just connect with your television. It does not take a genius to predict two generations ahead.

That is where we are moving. I guess the big question is whether or not Sony and Nintendo can convince people that they still need consoles, or if they will embrace a broader infrastructure.

But again we are talking at least ten years. But all three of the big console makers, plus Amazon, Apple, and Valve need to get on a similar page to make this a reality sooner then later.

 

[HolyBaikal]

I couldn't disagree with this more. Console hardware sales may decline, but they aren't going anywhere for years and years and years and years.

I don't think that consoles will disappear. We still have vinyl record players and film cameras, and even cassette players.

But I think that console sales will continue declining. And will be more of a novel novelty fun thing than what most people want to play games on.

I also think that cable and satellite TV is going to be less and less popular and stuff like Youtube are going to get more and more popular.

 

[Servbot24]

Seems like he's making an obvious statement to me. I'm guessing PS5 will be the last traditional one.

 

[Acorn]

He'll be in his retirement home shouting "See I told you!"

 

[Krakn3Dfx]

1.) Pachter tells people not to buy consoles and wait for "big holiday deals".
2.) People stop buying consoles, market withers on the vine between September and November, dies.
3.) Pachter says he got it right.

 

[HolyBaikal]

They might converge with other devices to be an all in one box but there will always be a segment of people that prefer to play their games on a "bigger screen".

I think that people are going to want bigger screens until virtual reality and augmented reality become more popular.

But I don't think that boxes are going to stay as popular as screens. I think that things like tablets will be more popular than boxes.

And if consoles evolve, they might evolve into tablets. And I guess you could kind of call that a console.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

I don't think that consoles will disappear. We still have vinyl record players and film cameras, and even cassette players.

The thing with technologies left behind by the mainstream though is that they are usually aimed at a 'purist' high end niche market; that market isn't console owners, its high end PC gamers.

 

[speculawyer]

1.) Pachter tells people not to buy consoles and wait for "big holiday deals".
2.) People stop buying consoles, market withers on the vine between September and November, dies.
3.) Pachter says he got it right.

That's like troll physics.

It it troll analyst.

 

[boredandlazy]

C'mon Michael. Stick to the financial aspects. You are are not an engineer. When you try to talk about the technology it just comes out as hilarious. Battery issues, power consumption, heat dissipation are all serious issues that are not easy to handle. Thus, mobile devices are always a little behind the larger plug-in stuff.

And Microsoft knows this stuff full well. We are talking about a company that had to write-off $1B because their console with a big fan still overheated and died with a RROD.

What does this mean?

 

[Salty Hippo]

I love Pachter. When does his new show start?

 

[HolyBaikal]

The thing with technologies left behind by the mainstream though is that they are usually aimed at a 'purist' high end niche market; that market isn't console owners, its high end PC gamers.

Well, maybe a lot of them.

But there are still console people who are very purist. A lot of people in this thread seem kind of purist about consoles.

I'm sure that people will still make consoles for nostalgia or something. Even if they don't have really amazing hardware.

 

[Floridian]

I really don't understand his logic at all.

 

[Mit-]

What this man says is true and everyone is in denial.

MrNyarlathotep has some good posts on why this will be.

Mobile platforms don't need to catch up to the power of high end consoles. They need only to offer a better gaming experience than they do now. Phones that connect to large screens are going to be very, very commonplace in the near future. This is already becoming a bigger and bigger thing as people enjoy things such as a Chromecast. Streaming technology is getting better and better. It just needs to achieve input latency within one or two frames and it will be perfect.

Once you can plug your phone in, pick up a Bluetooth controller, turn your TV on, and start playing games, it's going to be bad for consoles.

Tablet and mobile experiences are already good enough for more consumers than those that make up the hardcore gaming market. The better mobile gaming experiences get, the greater the number of lost console gamers. Less console gamers to fuel big budget games = less big budget games, something we're already seeing.

Guess what's going to come with the next generation of console hardware? Even bigger budgets. And less consumers for them. It isn't a sustainable market, and it's going to end.

There will be a time where we'll likely have to accept a minor downgrade in graphics to enjoy a new gaming platform (Android/iOS), but then the graphics will continue to get better, and they will be powered by devices you already own for other things that can do way more than a dedicated console, that cost tons of money but you willingly subsidize it through phone contracts.

It sounds crazy, but how else do you guys think the console industry is going to survive higher budgets for a shrinking audience?

 

[Nzyme32]

Well he's closer to being right this time than last at least since here it is perhaps slightly plausable with increased devices and streaming. Personally I think consoles are going to change into something else rather than completely go away thanks to the ever increasing amount of devices people use. I think PCs and consoles may exist more as servers for content to all manner of devices around a home and cloud and other stuff might help that for mobile stuff to some degree. But all that is a way off, not as patcher says.

See patcher I can do your job

 

[Game Guru]

PC isn't going anywhere. We're talking about dedicated consoles.

Nintendo has one more crack at a console. Microsoft may already be setting themselves up for making the One the last console they make. Sony may indeed come out with a PS5, but release it to a shirking and aging market. It is a definite possibility.

This is the same kind of guffawing that was going on when people first talked about mobile killing off dedicated handhelds 5 or so years ago.

Dedicated consoles of the MS/Sony variety are basically PCs with a unique OS. At this point, the PS4 and Xbox One are to PC as iOS is to Android. Certainly if PCs will continue to exist as they currently are then consoles will also continue to exist because they are just locked-down PCs.

How are standalone MP3 players, pagers, digital cameras and netbooks selling these days?

How's the Ouya and Fire TV doing? To my knowledge, neither device has sold 10 million yet unlike a certain traditional console. Also doesn't Apple still make MP3 Players or am I just imagining the continued existence of the iPod line? In addition, doesn't Google still promote ChromeOS which is an OS designed for netbooks? Already we have the two companies who are the dominant forces for mobile still selling MP3 Players and netbooks. I can even find a flurry of digital cameras available just by looking on Amazon.

You do have a point on the pager, but then the pager was really just a stopgap solution for when people needed to be on-call 24/7 but cellphones were big and bulky and thus not very portable. The needs that a pager existed to address are better met by the cellphone since now you can actually just call the person who has to be on-call 24/7. The netbook is perhaps the same way in that the needs of a netbook user could easily be met by a tablet/keyboard bundle. However, that raises the question of if the needs of every camera user or music lover can be met by mobile devices. The enthusiasts for both seem to say that their needs can't be met by mobile devices given the sales of DSLR cameras and vinyl records and record players.

Actually... Going back to the Ouya and Fire TV, the fact that companies felt the need to create boxes that can play games just by taking advantage of the economics of scale which mobile hardware provides seem to indicate that consoles, or at least devices similar to consoles in that they use a controller and hook up to the TV, will continue to exist.

 

[neither]

Maybe he thinks if he says it enough times it'll come true.

 

[HolyBaikal]

I really don't understand his logic at all.

Well, if you think about it. Consoles are kind of a thing from their time.

At one time, when everyone had TVs, having a little box to attach to them to play games was a good idea. We didn't have the technology to do better things.

But now that technology moving forward, we don't need dedicated devices. And most things don't need to be boxes. There are better things out there to use to play video games than just boxes with some CPUs and GPUs in them and maybe some other stuff.

 

[JordanN]

Tablet and mobile experiences are already good enough for more consumers than those that make up the hardcore gaming market. The better mobile gaming experiences get, the greater the number of lost console gamers. Less console gamers to fuel big budget games = less big budget games, something we're already seeing.

So why wasn't Destiny made for the phones? Or GTA 5? Or every other game that's announced at e3?

I'm still not seeing the threat. Everything I'm seeing right now is phones growing alongside consoles, not taking them.

I don't have the numbers but there is still profit being made on consoles. If budget was the concern, PS3/360 wouldn't have lasted longer than 2007 (or, Publishers would have shifted over to the Wii, which they didn't).

I mentioned before, the mobile platform still offers an ecosystem different to what's found in consoles. It doesn't matter if tablets sell 500 million, when the games marketed are meant to be enjoyed for a $1. There isn't an overlap between what console games play vs mobile.

 

[Game Guru]

What this man says is true and everyone is in denial.

MrNyarlathotep has some good posts on why this will be.

Mobile platforms don't need to catch up to the power of high end consoles. They need only to offer a better gaming experience than they do now.

Hold it right there... How are better gaming experiences going to appear on mobile platforms if no one is willing to pay for it? The whole model that mobile is based on is subsidized hardware and freemium software, where the biggest hits are not actually the graphically intensive and impressive games like consoles have, but games like Candy Crush Saga, Clash of Clans, Flappy Bird, and the Kim Kardashian game which don't take advantage of the power that mobile devices actually have under the hood nor do they need anything more than the touchscreen. The model of subsidized hardware, freemium software, and touchscreen controls that are mobile gaming strengths are also its weakness in that they are devices ill-suited for a better gaming experience or a gaming experience on the television like those of consoles.

 

[Averon]

I can see and non-console future. Isn't Sony essentially moving towards that already with PSNow and their emphasizes towards digital purchases?

 

[HolyBaikal]

I can't play Demons Souls, or Destiny, or CS:GO on my phone, and if I could it would be nowhere near the same experience. It will never happen. Mark my words.

But... why wouldn't it ever happen?

Aren't there already phones with good enough things to play PlayStation 3 games?
The Tegra K1 seems like it's kind of similar to the cell in the PlayStation 3.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

How's the Ouya and Fire TV doing? To my knowledge, neither device has sold 10 million yet unlike a certain traditional console.

...

Actually... Going back to the Ouya and Fire TV, the fact that companies felt the need to create boxes that can play games just by taking advantage of the economics of scale which mobile hardware provides seem to indicate that consoles, or at least devices similar to consoles in that they use a controller and hook up to the TV, will continue to exist.

Or their failure suggests that there is a small market for people who want to buy additional hardware just to play mobile games on their TV, which is bad news for consoles in a future where titles are cross platform with mobile.

So why wasn't Destiny made for the phones? Or GTA 5? Or every other game that's announced at e3?

Apart from the fact that those titles, and all titles shown at E3 are already balls deep into the development cycle (likely more than 2 years development time already sunk, if not more), how many super high budget titles do you think publishers are prepared to greenlight to dwindling sales and userbases?

EDIT:

Hold it right there... How are better gaming experiences going to appear on mobile platforms if no one is willing to pay for it? The whole model that mobile is based on is subsidized hardware and freemium software, where the biggest hits are not actually the graphically intensive and impressive games like consoles have, but games like Candy Crush Saga, Clash of Clans, Flappy Bird, and the Kim Kardashian game which don't take advantage of the power that mobile devices actually have under the hood nor do they need anything more than the touchscreen. The model of subsidized hardware, freemium software, and touchscreen controls that are mobile gaming strengths are also its weakness in that they are devices ill-suited for a better gaming experience or a gaming experience on the television like those of consoles.

But you also see titles like GTA, Minecraft, Football Manager, The Sims and Terreria sell.
That's like making broad assumptions about the 360 audience because Dance Central sells a shit ton.

EDIT2:
Although I agree that general market expectations for mobile titles to be less than a buck or free is broken and unsustainable.

 

[Dead Man]

In two more generations? So about 20 years from now? Yeah, I'll buy that.

 

[EmptySpace]

could be possible.

phones right now are more powerful than the ps1. not to mention everyone is going for digital and streaming. so all you'll need is an internet-enabled tv.

 

[Mit-]

How's the Ouya and Fire TV doing?

Poorly. They are dedicated devices that do things your phone can do already. Similar to dedicated game consoles.

Also doesn't Apple still make MP3 Players or am I just imagining the continued existence of the iPod line?

The iPod classic line is officially dead, and the other smaller offerings exist mostly for convenience of use in situations such as exercising. Otherwise yes, most people have zero use for them when their phones can do the same thing these days.

In addition, doesn't Google still promote ChromeOS which is an OS designed for netbooks? Already we have the two companies who are the dominant forces for mobile still selling MP3 Players and netbooks. I can even find a flurry of digital cameras available just by looking on Amazon.

Those are pieces of hardware that are not reliant on other companies spending millions of dollars developing software for them. You get a camera and it takes nice pictures, right now. Better pictures than your phone. Also, the low-quality, cheaper, consumer-friendly digital camera market certainly isn't what it used to be nearly a decade ago.

However, that raises the question of if the needs of every camera user or music lover can be met by mobile devices. The enthusiasts for both seem to say that their needs can't be met by mobile devices given the sales of DSLR cameras and vinyl records and record players.

It's a lot easier to "port" a digital album to vinyl than it is to "port" any piece of software to any other platform. These comparisons aren't as simple as most people are trying to make them out to be.

Actually... Going back to the Ouya and Fire TV, the fact that companies felt the need to create boxes that can play games just by taking advantage of the economics of scale which mobile hardware provides seem to indicate that consoles, or at least devices similar to consoles in that they use a controller and hook up to the TV, will continue to exist.

Surprise! Pachter didn't say controllers and TVs were going away. He said dedicated gaming consoles were. Nothing is stopping me from, even now, hooking an Android phone up to my TV and playing from a, at the moment, small selection of games that support controllers.

Bluetooth controllers, that don't have to be anywhere near my phone.

So why wasn't Destiny made for the phones? Or GTA 5? Or every other game that's announced at e3?

I'm still not seeing the threat. Everything I'm seeing right now is phones growing alongside consoles, not taking them.

I don't have the numbers but there is still profit being made on consoles. If budget was the concern, PS3/360 wouldn't have lasted longer than 2006 (or, Publishers would have shifted over to the Wii, which they didn't).

I didn't say big budget games in their entirety are dead right now. In fact I never said big budget games would die. Just that their existence will be heavily challenged in the future by rising costs and a dwindling audience. We are already seeing a pretty clear distinction in lower budget 3D titles that look good, but clearly aren't challenging the hardware in ways that other developers are, and a big reason is simply budget. What happens when these games with decreased budgets could also potentially run on Android/iOS, platforms with severely larger userbases?

 

[HolyBaikal]

Console gaming becoming kind of uncommon doesn't mean that console style gaming will become uncommon. I think that arcade style games will still be popular, too. I hope that STGs get more popular.

I think that controllers will still be popular until something better to play games with comes along.

I guess whether console gaming becomes rare and uncommon depends on what people mean by console gaming? If people mean playing console and arcade style video games, and using a controller, I think that console gaming is still going to be popular. But I think that boxes to play video games on aren't really needed anymore.

I'm a PC gamer, but I usually use a controller to play video games.

 

[Dire]

I think he's right but more because of consoles seeming to have an increasingly confused demographic as opposed to any sort of specific deal(s) going on. Some in here have critiqued those suggesting that some console gamers will go to mobile because next gen mobile will only be as powerful as a 360. That somewhat misses the point. If somebody was after the latest and greatest in technology then a PC is, more than ever, the most logical and practical choice. If somebody just wants casual gaming then 360 level of power in mobile devices they would've purchased anyhow is already a gen or two ahead of "more than enough."

The problem is that consoles no longer seem to have much focused appeal for either the casual or the hardcore. You're left with this sort of "in between" group which gets smaller every time somebody realizes PC or mobile fits their tastes a bit better than the "everything to everybody" attitude of consoles today.

 

[NewGame]

Consoles are dead! Long live the consoles!

 

[Dire]

Console gaming becoming kind of uncommon doesn't mean that console style gaming will become uncommon. I think that arcade style games will still be popular, too. I hope that STGs get more popular.

I think that controllers will still be popular until something better to play games with comes along.

I guess whether console gaming becomes rare and uncommon depends on what people mean by console gaming? If people mean playing console and arcade style video games, and using a controller, I think that console gaming is still going to be popular. But I think that boxes to play video games on aren't really needed anymore.

I'm a PC gamer, but I usually use a controller to play video games.

To be clear, I also completely agree here.

I doubt the controller as opposed to mobile interface method of gameplay is going anywhere. Rather I think that the concept of purchasing a fixed-hardware-spec $xxx box that ring fences you exclusively into software the company that produces said box approves of is something that's going to go the way of the dodo.

 

[HolyBaikal]

And I don't see the internet improving enough to fix that except for people that get fiber. And if we go to 4K, streaming will just fail again.

I think that the internet will improve a lot. The internet is a lot better now than it was in 2004. And much much better than it was in 1994.

And I think that a lot of people will be happy with 1080p or even 720p, especially for streaming.

 

[innervision961]

Pachter predicts death of consoles. ... Long live the consoles!

 

[Doctoglethorpe]

Eh. Consoles will only die in the sense that the big 6-8 year generations will die and we'll fall into a more frequent cycle of smaller updates like phones have.

I can also see Microsoft focusing on software and leaving the hardware to third party companies as well. Or at least opening up the potential for other companies to make their own boxes of varying specifications. So basically HTPCs you can install XboxOS on. Upgrade when you want, all games are just developed like PC games, they work across the variety of hardwares so long as they use that OS, instead of focused on specific consoles. Sure, that means less optimization, but when you can upgrade sooner then every 8 years your going to end up with better performing games regardless. Thats exactly what PC gaming already is. Consoles are just going to be PCs, and Xbox will be its own OS. Or more likely part of Windows. Playstation could be its own OS as well. And whoever else wants to compete too.

Well, that's the future I want anyways.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I don't know about console death, but it doesn't surprise me. And Microsoft's presence in the console hardware space has always struck me as temporary.

But personally, buying another console is completely unappealing to me. I have a 360 and a PS3. They're plenty powerful enough. Yes, I can tell the difference between a PS3 and PS4 game running side by side, but it's not a huge difference, certainly not big enough to care. Why do I need to buy a PS4 just to keep playing games? Forget that, just keep making games for the PS3 I already have.

Plunking down another $300 or $400 on a useless, redundant piece of hardware? No thanks.

Then again, even in a post console world, I'm not sure what that would mean, as far as additional unnecessary expenditures. I'm sure they'll continue, just for a different product.

 

[MilesTeg]

I can't wait to plug my phone into my TV and plug my phone into the wall at the same time. Next gen gaming. I mean the whole concept is ridiculous because these devices are primarily used for other things. If my phone or tablet is being used like that, I would have to get up, possibly quit my game to do something else on the device. Most people wouldn't bother. And no one is buying a second tablet to stick under their TV plugged into the wall 24/7.

I don't believe furthering graphics tech these days is a bad investment at all. A streaming future means that your product will run on any device, be it a micro console, a cell phone, a tablet, a stream box, whatever. Staying stagnant is the biggest mistake you can make. Big budget games are doing great on consoles, and when the time comes, they can be streamed to practically anything. Why the hell would I move to mobile development when I could stick with what I'm doing now and my games will eventually run on those devices regardless? If streaming games is the future the whole argument of "mobile devices are getting more powerful" is a moot point because the internal hardware won't even be used anymore to run the games. Download PS/Xbox App, done.

A streaming future actually benefits consoles as they can be sold for very cheap but still offer high quality graphics. Sony and Microsoft will use their first party studios to support them, and third party will be there too because it won't require developing for a specific closed platform locally, plus the strength of the Xbox and PS brands to the consumer.

The internal components might change but we will still essentially have Xbox/PS boxes under the TV. Of course maybe streaming isn't the end game. I don't know.

I'm interested to see what happens regarding 4K and VR for the next round of consoles. Do the new consoles support 4K and VR head sets day one? Is that enough to off set the mobile boom? Would developing native 4K content even be a good idea in 2019 or so? No idea. No idea if a console like that is even financially viable. The one advantage consoles have is they don't need an expensive HD screen in every box. So who knows I guess. I feel like very good VR would help dedicated consoles as it's an experience that won't be replicated via streaming or mobile devices any time soon. Of course that would only last so long as an advantage too.

 

[Game Guru]

Or their failure suggests that there is a small market for people who want to buy additional hardware just to play mobile games on their TV, which is bad news for consoles in a future where titles are cross platform with mobile.

Of course, you assume that console titles will be cross-platform with mobile. I am not so sure streaming games will actually take off like some expect it to do nor will it make sense to sell a $60 game on iOS and Android platforms. Sure, a more modern game like Bioshock is on those platforms now, but it is also a game from seven years ago that made most of its money seven years ago as a console game.

But you also see titles like GTA, Minecraft, Football Manager, The Sims and Terreria sell.
That's like making broad assumptions about the 360 audience because Dance Central sells a shit ton.

EDIT2:
Although I agree that general market expectations for mobile titles to be less than a buck or free is broken and unsustainable.

I'm glad you, at least, understand that my issue with mobile actually isn't about the hardware, but that the model most mobile games rely on is not conductive as a console replacement. I'd gladly declare the death of the console if it was producing unique experiences similar to what people buy consoles for rather than ports of games that fit with a touchscreen interface, ports of old console games from years back that use a controller, or ports of indie or formerly indie titles.

 

[HolyBaikal]

But personally, buying another console is completely unappealing to me.

I'm a little bit tired of buying consoles, too. The last time I was really excited to buy a console I think was the PlayStation 2.

I kind of didn't want to buy a PlayStation 3 for a long time, but there were just so many games I wanted to play. I guess it wasn't helpful that I was in college at the time and didn't have a lot to spend on things like new video games consoles. And they were kind of expensive when they were first released.

After that I've bought all the new consoles. I have many Nintendo 3DS, I have 2 PlayStation Vitas, I have a Wii U, a PlayStation 3, and an XBOX 360. And I have many gaming PCs, too.

But now that I do have money to spend and I've bought all these consoles. I feel like I'm looking forward to buying a PlayStation 4 even less than the PlayStation 3. I feel like I'm tired of buying consoles.

 

[Curufinwe]

The messageboard equivalent of putting your fingers in your ears and going "LALALA I CANT HEAR YOU".



Apart from the fact it is the same argument, why do you think TDP is the primary research focus of all computer hardware manufacturers right now?
PROTIP: It's not because they're super concerned about the environment.



As are all middleware manufacturers (Unreal, Unity, Crytech).
As increasingly are the largest publishers (EA, Activision, Ubisoft).

So why are consoles so precious that - despite everybody increasingly moving their development efforts to the mobile and tablet space because as you admit that is where the market is - they are immune from market forces?



Like console only gamers actually give a shit about raw performance of titles as anything other than ammo for console warring.

Bioshock on the iPad is, for many people, good enough.
Console only owners have been trained to accept titles as being good enough (where "good enough" is whatever specifications their preferred vendor decided upon).
Technical imporvements in the mobile space over the next half decade will increase that threshold of "good enough", as will software improvements (such as advances in shaders and post-processing effects).

Games development is entirely smoke and mirrors; it is not impossible - fuck, it is not even unlikely that there will be cross platform titles on both current gen consoles and mobile devices that look and perform comparably within the next mobile 2 hardware cycles.

Bullshit born of delusion. Bioshock is a 7 year old game.

 

[The_R3medy]

I like Pachter, but has ever been right about games? Like honestly.