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[Jobbs]

I don't need a portable console; my smart phone is enough.

Eh the problem is with the controls. If there were good controls standardized with phones, then you could make more interesting and deeper games with them. The problem is that won't ever happen.

As someone with a personal interest and some experience developing games, I feel very limited in terms of what kind of games I can make with touch only controls. It's really hard to make the kind of game that appeals to me.

 

[Hendrick's]

Pachter pretty much summed up what I have come to expect from Nintendo lately, but I still hold out hope that we are both wrong.

It is obvious Nintendo has lost touch with gaming hardware (software still obviously super strong), and part of me wishes they just give up on that side of things and focus on what they do best.

 

[Chû Totoro]

1) I don't remember calling him dumb
2) I don't see why Wii U's failure would necessarily mean that the NX will fail too
3) I don't remember saying anything about NX failing or being successful. We don't know enough to make that prediction and base it on solid arguments.


He said that it sounds more and more likely that the new console will be a hybrid. He also said that it will come out in 2017. He's going to be wrong about both of these predictions.

1) I never said you said this. It's my opinion= I don't find him dumb but not relevant regarding gaming instead of a few sales topics. I don't think he adds to the discussion.
2) I don't too but I understand the (not very solid) logic behind it. I mean it's easier to imagine something not to change (Nintendo home consoles sales) instead of the contrary because the brain like things he can rely on, even when nothing helps to make this a more valid opinion.
3) I never said you said this (again). And as I said it too, we don't know enough and more importantly him since he's the one who claims the console will fail while also stating he doesn't know anything about it...

For the hybrid he's wrong about the hardware. The software is a platform that can bring interesting things on many devices. For 2017 he may not be wrong

 

[Oersted]

Pachter pretty much summed up what I have come to expect from Nintendo lately, but I still hold out hope that we are both wrong.

It is obvious Nintendo has lost touch with gaming hardware (software still obviously super strong), and part of me wishes they just give up on that side of things and focus on what they do best.

You expect Nintendo to make a hybrid besides them saying they are not making a hybrid? Why?

 

[Hendrick's]

You expect Nintendo to make a hybrid besides them saying they are not making a hybrid? Why?

No. I expect them to make something that is years behind its competitors and not very good.

 

[RPGCrazied]

I think its a neat idea if its a handheld that hooks up to your TV, but then i wonder can it really be that powerful if the guts are in a handheld unit. The 3DS is great and all, but most games is a jaggies fest.

 

[Hendrick's]

I think its a neat idea if its a handheld that hooks up to your TV, but then i wonder can it really be that powerful if the guts are in a handheld unit. The 3DS is great and all, but most games is a jaggies fest.

Let's be honest, the 3DS is dated and arguably was never that good of a system. It has been the games that have made it a success.

 

[Oersted]

No. I expect them to make something that is years behind its competitors and not very good.

Yes, these are the attibutes he expects from a NX hybrid. Any reasons why you agree with him on the attributes, but not the actual thing?

 

[Brofield]

What I don't understand is how Pachter can go from suggesting that based on the far reaching past of Nintendo they'll do one thing, but based on recent activity they'll have the same results.

The basis of insanity is repeating the same experiment expecting different results. Nintendo has been doing different, as a result of different experiments, and if Trev is to be believed, once again Nintendo is shaking things up.

 

[Lionel Richie]

I’ve no idea what that thing is going to be

I would say based on Nintendo’s recent history, it is not going to be very good.

That's pretty much Pachter in a nutshell.

 

[Oersted]

What I don't understand is how Pachter can go from suggesting that based on the far reaching past of Nintendo they'll do one thing, but based on recent activity they'll have the same results.

The basis of insanity is repeating the same experiment expecting different results. Nintendo has been doing different, as a result of different experiments, and if Trev is to be believed, once again Nintendo is shaking things up.

Nintendo said NX will be a entirely different thing. We don't need Trev for that.

 

[qko]

Cue defensive replies!

What do you expect from someone with his track record of predictions? Sure once in a while he's right while 80% is garbage.

Are you the kind of person that still eats up and defends all the garbage Molyneux spews when he says his next game will revolutionize gaming?

 

[Astral Dog]

I also think NX wont be very good, like, slightly above Wii U good.

 

[bachikarn]

I think its a neat idea if its a handheld that hooks up to your TV, but then i wonder can it really be that powerful if the guts are in a handheld unit. The 3DS is great and all, but most games is a jaggies fest.

A hybrid sounds good at first, but the more you think about it, the more you realize you just get the worst of both worlds.

It would be a pretty weak console, and an expensive handheld with poor battery life. So who does it really market to?

 

[ImThatDood]

I can't really argue with most of what Patcher said, but this notion he clings to that games are moving away from consoles is absurd. He ignores the fact that consoles and physical game sales are consistently breaking records. Look at the legs on GTAV sales. Shit even if VR is the future, you currently still need a console or PC to use it. Yeah consoles are dying and the industry is moving away from them.......... what stupidity.

 

[LordOfChaos]

He really stirred up the hive on this one. I think he could have gone with softer phrasing, but I do share his fear. Looking at their state of OS software, networking, and hardware (ARM11 and PowerPC 750 shipping in this year...) in 2016 doesn't fill me to the brim with confidence that the NX will be wholly forward looking.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love a strong Nintendo that set a fire under Sony and MS, and for the NX to be a competent well selling duo. But Nintendo will have to prove it all to me.

 

[NeonZ]

I think its a neat idea if its a handheld that hooks up to your TV, but then i wonder can it really be that powerful if the guts are in a handheld unit. The 3DS is great and all, but most games is a jaggies fest.

A hybrid sounds good at first, but the more you think about it, the more you realize you just get the worst of both worlds.

It would be a pretty weak console, and an expensive handheld with poor battery life. So who does it really market to?

Nintendo denied the hybrid idea though. The stronger rumors, including the one from the Wall Street Journal, suggest that it'll be two separate "NX" units, console and handheld, not just a handheld docking into a tv. The question is just how close those two "units" will be as far as hardware and compatibility goes.

If those two different units are actually really a single system though (so, they're different hardware, but compatible with each other, not just some behind the scenes "easy to port" stuff), and the "NX" brand is not just a marketing term, then the console version can't be that powerful. It probably would be designed for higher resolution versions of the handheld games, which still will leave it behind the PS4 and One, even if the portable is a big jump over the 3ds.

I still think that's their best option. A PS4+ thing from Nintendo at this point would be a system with no audience at all since they wouldn't be able to give any consistent software support to it - and it'd also hurt their future portable at the same time. A portable/console shared library could be carried effectively by Nintendo by themselves alongside some Japanese support. It probably won't get them the sales of the PS4, but it should at least perform better than the Wii U currently does.

 

[Oersted]

He really stirred up the hive on this one. I think he could have gone with softer phrasing, but I do share his fear. Looking at their state of OS software, networking, and hardware (ARM11 and PowerPC 750 shipping in this year...) in 2016 doesn't fill me to the brim with confidence that the NX will be wholly forward looking.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love a strong Nintendo that set a fire under Sony and MS, and for the NX to be a competent well selling duo. But Nintendo will have to prove it all to me.

Pachter said nothing in that regard.

Nintendo did say it will be a entirely different thing.

 

[Pokemaniac]

Nintendo denied the hybrid idea though. The stronger rumors, including the one from the Wall Street Journal, suggest that it'll be two separate "NX" units, console and handheld, not just a handheld docking into a tv. The question is just how close those two "units" will be as far as hardware and compatibility goes.

If those two different units are actually really a single system though (so, they're different hardware, but compatible with each other, not just some behind the scenes "easy to port" stuff), and the "NX" brand is not just a marketing term, then the console version can't be that powerful. It probably would be designed for higher resolution versions of the handheld games, which still will leave it behind the PS4 and One, even if the portable is a big jump over the 3ds.

I still think that's their best option. A PS4+ thing from Nintendo at this point would be a system with no audience at all since they wouldn't be able to give any consistent software support to it - and it'd also hurt their future portable at the same time. A portable/console shared library could be carried effectively by Nintendo by themselves alongside some Japanese support. It probably won't get them the sales of the PS4, but it should at least perform better than the Wii U currently does.

Nothing about a shared library really requires the two systems to be close in power.

 

[James Scott]

If the shared library really comes into fruition, it should be one of Nintendo's best systems with an increased output even if the visuals are more stylized than impressive graphically.

 

[test_account]

Why is Pachter getting flak for saying "i dont know what the NX" is and then making a guess about what it is? Tons of people have speculated what the NX is, but no one* here knows what it is.

* = Could be that some user(s) is a developer that is working on a NX game But they are unlikely to participate in what the NX is speculation due to NDA.

 

[Romars202129]

Yeah I don't get the hatred for him. As you said, sometimes he's right and sometimes he's wrong; he always is interesting and comes across as a nice guy.

I just remember, for about 6 years straight, he just posted the same idea over and over again in regards to the wii. "oh, nintendo has made a huge mistake"
He said it before release, and then it changed to "oh, the casual money will now dry up and they'll be in trouble!"
But it didn't, yet he kept making the prediction year after year, the going excuse being "I was a little off last time, but it's going to happen... NOW!"
... About 5 years of updates like that, while nintendo soared with sky high profits.
You get it? Its like the facts didn't matter, he never seemed willing to reavaluate, or even think. He came off more as a man obsessed than a neutral annalist.
Then, finally, the wii-U, and my god I'm glad I never had to see the shit eating grin this goon probably had.
Maybe I'm exaggerating a bit, but thats how he came off to me. Either way, thats a guy with a hit/miss ratio more negative than his popularity on gaf.

 

[Terrell]

Matching PS4 performance wouldn't be that hard.

One of Nintendo's main problem would be that the PS4 is already sold at a very competive price with a lot of room to go cheaper. There isn't really a lot of space for a low budget console like back in the days when the Wii was quite the deal compared to the Xbox 360 and PS3 + the HDTV one needed to take really adventage of the console.

It may have a lot of room to go cheaper, but Sony and Microsoft alike would need to feel a DESIRE to go cheaper, and that will only happen if Nintendo undercuts them AND sees success in pulling away would-be later adopters of PS4 and XBO.

And considering that Sony and Microsoft want the highest profits they can muster to make the game-related divisions of their businesses as profitable as it they've been successful for a change, I don't see them moving their price just by virtue of Nintendo's presence alone. Nintendo would have to develop something that resonates in the market first before that happens. And coming in cheaper than PS4 XBO, which Nintendo can do with break-even NX hardware that it isn't unknown to offer, while offering a competitive game lineup, is one of the ways to do it.

That's still a pretty big "if", but not an impossible one.

All that being said, I doubt even Nintendo expects to best PS4 or XBO this generation, just achieve some better traction in the market than they had with Wii U.

There is absolutely nothing on your bullet point checklist that Nintendo has shown even a shred of competency in doing for at least the last decade. Outside of BC.

This thing will be DOA. Nintendo has not built an online infrastructure that can compete with anyone in the digital entertainment space. They've had 10-15 years to work on this, and they either don't care, or don't have the knowledge to do it.

Pachter is right about one thing...if Nintendo clings to their old business models, this thing will blow up on the launching pad.

And history always means that things will continue in perpetuity, right?

Why is Pachter getting flak for saying "i dont know what the NX" is and then making a guess about what it is? Tons of people have speculated what the NX is, but no one* here knows what it is.

* = Could be that some user(s) is a developer that is working on a NX game But they are unlikely to participate in what the NX is speculation due to NDA.

People here are putting a greater weight on his words, a higher expectation of validity or suggesting he should have immunity from criticism not afforded to an average NeoGAF forum poster making similar blind statements. There appears to be quite a number of them, and the more they treat him as untouchable, the more fervently people here will tear him down.

See as an example of this phenomenon: Gene Munster in relation to Apple discussions.

 

[jholmes]

People need to stop looking at recent history when coming to these conclusions and look for the analogous situation, and there's no situation that's more analogous to the Wii U than the GameCube.

Time will tell, but I would say that if Nintendo chooses to phase out the Wii U in similar fashion to the GameCube it will largely be a coincidence. The industry is far different today -- the Wii U has never seen the sort of third-party support the lame-duck GameCube saw even in the dying days of 2006, as one example -- and the company's senior management has seen real turnover in the decade since. Further I wouldn't want to exaggerate the situation of 10 years ago. While Nintendo unarguably pulled the plug on GameCube software after the launch of the Wii, it kept publishing really solid games right up until that point.

But like I said, the argument's really academic at this point, we don't have a date on the NX and we don't have dates on unannounced games, obviously.

 

[Doctre81]

I also think NX wont be very good, like, slightly above Wii U good.

Based on what?

 

[Trago]

If Nintendo gets that shared library idea down right, then that's a dramatic increase in first party releases for the console.

 

[Shaanyboi]

Pachter is like the reverse Nostradamus.

Reverstradamus!

 

[SmokedMeat]

I'm not expecting a hit, but we'll see what happens.

 

[lyrick]

Why does Patcher still give opinions on the minutia of the industry?

He does well on the investor level, but when it comes to stuff closer to the actual culture of gaming he's proven himself time and time again to be rather incompetent at being ahead of industry trends or even being part of the pulse of gaming.

 

[The_Lump]

Reverstradamus!

Yestradamus

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

Why does Patcher still give opinions on the minutia of the industry?

He does well on the investor level, but when it comes to stuff closer to the actual culture of gaming he's proven himself time and time again to be rather incompetent at being ahead of industry trends or even being part of the pulse of gaming.

Because people keep asking him for it? I'm not sure why people seem so perplexed on this.

Also, wtf does being relevant at the investor level but incompetent about "culture of gaming"?

 

[Dennis]

Does Pachter still post on NeoGAF?

I like his Pachter Factor show and would be interested in hearing more about his view that consoles are dying and PC will inherit the gaming world.

 

[Magusx]

I really hope it's a handheld. If rumors are true about it being near xbox one graphic power I'm excited. A handheld with that power, can't wait to play pokemon on that

 

[Neoxon]

I really hope it's a handheld. If rumors are true about it being near xbox one graphic power I'm excited. A handheld with that power, can't wait to play pokemon on that

While a handheld component is likely, it won't be a single-device hybrid.

 

[VAndy123m]

i hope the nx hardware is simple and conservative but the games are different and quirky like the gamecube

 

[Deleted member 13876]

Pachter is like the reverse Nostradamus.

Things Nostradamus was right about:

 

[joms5]

“I’ve no idea what that thing is going to be,” Pachter said

"I’m not really sure. I would say based on Nintendo’s recent history, it is not going to be very good. I know they are pretty excited about it, but I would say it’s a backward looking technology, that is just not an improvement over everything else that we’ve got an option to do, and it will completely miss the point of games getting away from consoles.

“I’ve no idea what that thing is going to be,”

but I would say it’s a backward looking technology, that is just not an improvement over everything else that we’ve got an option to do

I think it's time for the senile man to retire. I mean holy shit does he even listen to what he says?!

Siftd must be really desperate to keep this guy on. But of course they are. Satterfield and Pachter, the 2 people in the industry who just don't understand games anymore.

 

[yongeandcollege]

No. I expect them to make something that is years behind its competitors and not very good.

Edit: quoted wrong person!

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

As long as it's in the ball park of the PS4 hardware wise I'm fine. Anymore is a bonus. If it's significantly less they goofed, again.

The main thing is games. I'm hoping for a Gamecube-esque library at least, with killer launch titles.

Mario 128, Zelda U, Metroid Prime 4, Pilotwings 3 and Wave Race 3 will do at launch.

I'm not expecting anything less than that from the big N.

 

[Snaku]

But I thought the Wii U was Nintendo's Dreamcast. There shouldn't be another system coming!

More like the Wii U is the Saturn.

 

[lyrick]

Because people keep asking him for it? I'm not sure why people seem so perplexed on this.

Also, wtf does being relevant at the investor level but incompetent about "culture of gaming"?

It means that his output on the high level of what an investor is looking for (stock performance, Investor outlooks, and future growth opportunities) is pretty solid, while the opposite can be said about being in tune with software or console sales totals or what what the more product driven consumers hear him say on snippets of all tech considered.

The farther he gets from the investor level the more out of his expertise he becomes.

 

[MulderYuffie]

I think it'll be another Wii U and come out next year honestly.

 

[dramaticslowmo]

I didn't realise people still listened to Patcher...

 

[Grief.exe]

Looks like Pachter going to be wrong again.

All the evidence pointing to a 2016 launch.

 

[KingJ2002]

“I’ve no idea what that thing is going to be”

- Michael Pachter


that's enough to disregard everything he's saying after it.

Nintendo literally has no major release for the Wii U after Summer 2016. Unless they stopped liking money.. it's a good assumption that the NX will be launched in the fall this year.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

- Michael Pachter


that's enough to disregard everything he's saying after it.

Nintendo literally has no major release for the Wii U after Summer 2016. Unless they stopped liking money.. it's a good assumption that the NX will be launched in the fall this year.

But that's like saying a new console is a guaranteed success.

 

[Kuramu]

First time I've seen this. Lol. I wish it weren't tied to Pachter so I could post it in other situations.

Snipped that out for ya

 

[AmyS]

PS4 wasn't a graphical beast like the PS3 was. It had a very Nintendo like philosophy of making a strong box with a small loss. So technically matching it three years later shouldn't be considered a difficult task

Yeah, relatively speaking, the PS1 in '94/95, the PS2 in 2000 and PS3 in 2006 were all higher-end hardware for the time which they were released, compared to PS4 in 2013.

 

[Terrell]

Time will tell, but I would say that if Nintendo chooses to phase out the Wii U in similar fashion to the GameCube it will largely be a coincidence.

I'm sorry, but you really think pulling the plug on an unsuccessful product shortly after the arrival of the next one will be "coincidence"? No, it will be pragmatic business thinking, just like it was the last time they did it. There's not going to be any benefit to keeping Wii U around, so they won't. Plain and simple. This year is just running out the clock til Zelda, but the hands have been on the plug that needs pulling since last year and everyone sees that.

But that's like saying a new console is a guaranteed success.

Certainly has more chances to be one than the Wii U ever will. And it may be a difference in how success will be measured.

 

[KingJ2002]

But that's like saying a new console is a guaranteed success.

A new console from Nintendo should get enough early adopters to have a significant uptick in sales over the Wii U.