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Pachter: Wii U a "mistake Nintendo may never recover from"

pachuco said:
I don't think it is time to put the nail in Nintendo's coffin. Yes, they have made some missteps, but who knows what might happen. With the economy the way it is, we might be looking at 360s and PS3s that have a much longer tail than other consoles. These consoles might stay fashionable for a few more years.
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It might be nail in the coffin of Nintendo home consoles - Wii was a success because it was selling people a dream in which they were losing weight while playing - without that they are down to shrinking population of Nintendo lifetime fans or they would have to challange Sony/Microsft/Valve for core gamer.

But as Wii U shows they are completly clueless on what makes system atractive for core gamer.
 
Harlock said:
Nah, Pachter only get the easy ones.

I want to see him say who will win the next generation, Sony or MS.
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Pfft he didn't even get Red Dead redemption right, he'll get this wrong too.

saichi said:
BC is never a make or break feature of a console though no matter how or how much it's marketed. It wouldn't be a "driving force" for anyone to get the system.
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It certainly would have helped the Vita and crippled the 3DS otherwise (I mean they released a major Pkmn game for DS when 3DS was out).

michaelius said:
It might be nail in the coffin of Nintendo home consoles - Wii was a success because it was selling people a dream in which they were losing weight while playing - without that they are down to shrinking population of Nintendo lifetime fans or they would have to challange Sony/Microsft/Valve for core gamer.

But as Wii U shows they are completly clueless on what makes system atractive for core gamer.
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Nintendo isn't the only one not getting it seems.
 
ii Stryker said:
The iPad/tablets have been around for a few years now and so has twitter which is more or less what the Miiverse is.
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The Gamepad is cutting edge in terms of the streaming technology, not the tablet interface.

Miiverse is cutting edge in terms of integration with games, not in its basic Twitter-like functions. It's not a big revolution but it's a fresh application for social media in the gaming context.
 
michaelius said:
But as Wii U shows they are completly clueless on what makes system atractive for core gamer.
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But as your post shows, so are you. It's a competent machine that plays games. I consider myself a core gamer, and it's attractive to me.

Not sure, but you seem to be talking about the system's power. Maybe you're not though.

Perhaps if your point had addressed the current software drought, it would be accurate, and less subjective.
 
saichi said:
BC is never a make or break feature of a console though no matter how or how much it's marketed. It wouldn't be a "driving force" for anyone to get the system.
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I think this is a point of difference for us. It was a make or break point for me in the past and will be in the future. For you, it is probably not. But that's OK. We just look at things differently.
 
le.phat said:
I find his follow up post very well backed up and thought out. Most posts, like yours for instance, seem to resort to personal insults and hot air. How exactly is he a "joke to his profession" ? Care to explain to me what his profession actually entails ?
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If this post is what you were talking about, I hadn't read it before my post. That said, sure there's better logic in this detailed analysis. It doesn't mean that I would fully agree with it.

He's an analyst. If you didn't know that before, now you do. I don't care for many of his opinions in regards to the industry. I stated my opinion plainly. If you want to derail this as a "me" thing, fine. I don't care for it and won't comment further on your insinuated insults.

The point of all of this was Pachter's quotes. He's wrong more often than right. Anyone aside from weathermen who are wrong more than right don't tend to last long in their profession. If an analyst is wrong more than right, stating that they're a "joke" to their profession isn't off. Add the controversial aspect of it and I hope you can see my point. His initial comment comes off as a trolling doom and gloom comment. It's only after that grabbed headlines that he backed it up with data and further supported and qualified the reasoning of his opinion. Good for him. It still doesn't make his initial statement any more off-base or controversial.

I do watch the occasional "Pach Attack" shows. He seems like a decent person. That doesn't mean that I can't call him out as I see fit.
 
Rash said:
The Gamepad is cutting edge in terms of the streaming technology, not the tablet interface.

Miiverse is cutting edge in terms of integration with games, not in its basic Twitter-like functions. It's not a big revolution but it's a fresh application for social media in the gaming context.
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agreed.

a lot of people dont seem to understand what you just said about gamepad and miiverse.
 
I think this generation is going to be far more similar to the Gamecube/GBA generation for them when compared to the Wii/DS generation. They'll do all right, they should still remain profitable as always, but I hope they didn't expand their business to the point of relying on all of those enormous Wii/DS numbers, because they aren't coming back for this generation.

Their primary appeal with core gamers is mostly gone after the previous (Wii) generation. Sure, classy folk like GAF can appreciate Nintendo games, but CoD folk that sell millions of 360s/PS3s cannot and will not.

Their huge sales of Wii and DS came from the casual crowd, and that casual crowd seems to have moved on. To me it appears the "Wii is a fad" fears are coming true. Only IMO, it's "video games are a fad" for those casual gamers. They're done. They're done with Wii, and they're done with DS. Little girls that had DS's have grown and are done with video games. New little girls are more into phones.

Their largest remaining market seems to be young boys. Which is a lot smaller than their previous market, which pretty much included all ages of both genders.

There is no possible way that the Wii U will come close to selling as much as the Wii, and the same likely goes for 3DS versus the DS as well.
 
Rash said:
The Gamepad is cutting edge in terms of the streaming technology, not the tablet interface.

Miiverse is cutting edge in terms of integration with games, not in its basic Twitter-like functions. It's not a big revolution but it's a fresh application for social media in the gaming context.
Click to expand...

when it comes to the gamepad I'm thinking MS and Sony in all likelihood will offer the ability to do something similar with existing/surface tablets.

At any rate these particular features aren't necessarily enough to justify the price point they've chosen at least not when you examine/compare the sales numbers to the other HD consoles.
 
leesmapman said:
images
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No live action.

BJqM1kN.jpg


Pixar + Nintendo collab = print money money
 
Wii and DS were a massive hit with kids, that some put in the "casual crowd" category, or simply ignore. Kids who discovered videogames with Nintendo franchises still exist. They will likely bite when Nintendo franchises are launched.
 
I am not very interested in WiiU yet but the death of Nintendo would be extremely sad. But since this is a Pachter statement I am not too worried yet.

I do fear however that Wii U will be Nintendo's second gamecube case and I think major changes will need to happen if Nintendo is to continue in the hardware race.
 
I still say its the games. If they released a new Zelda, 3D Mario and Metroid, their numbers now would be a lot better.

All we have now really is ports that you can already play on your 360/PS3. The other titles are really forgettable.
 
Busty said:
With the WiiU they have a console that is for everyone and no one.
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I'll give you that to some degree. It sits in this place of 'not really a big jump over current gen' so not too appealing to your enthusiast platform agnostic gamer. It's not immediately understandable enough for the mainstream casual gamer. It's also not attractive to the Nintendo gamer much due to lack of software. The first they can't really fix. Even if say Retro released a gorgeous game, I think lots of people have already invested in Orbis/ Durango. The second can be fixed with software and marketing. It has potential I think. The third just needs games.

Overall I think it's salvageable however with little announced it sinks further and further into obscurity with every passing month.

It needs games NOW and not in 6 months.
 
soundahfekz said:
Someone already got banned for this, and you come back doing the same thing?

Some people never learn. R.I.P
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Not the same guy. Mr. Pachters is a different analyst altogether and not a neoGaf member.
 
marc^o^ said:
Wii and DS were a massive hit with kids, that some put in the "casual crowd" category, or simply ignore. Kids who discovered videogames with Nintendo franchises still exist. They will likely bite when Nintendo franchises are launched.
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I don't think it's absurd to think that some big Nintendo games will help. However, the mistake in my mind is the notion that the significant turnaround is all but guaranteed. Yes, lack of compelling software is a big part of the problem right now, but the current sales numbers aren't a very good indicator in my mind that customers are interested but just waiting for a nudge.

It's doing terribly in several regions, with no noteworthy bright spots to my knowledge. That indicator of almost no interest signals to me that we're past the point I think where we fall back to "get Mario and Mario Kart out there and watch the sales roll in." Not that I think they can't turn it around, but I think it's going to take games, a big marketing push, a price cut, and some luck in that hopefully hype from the new platforms/GTA don't ensure that any such push gets lost in the shuffle.
 
I agree with whoever said that the biggest mistake Nintendo made here was opting for a higher priced device (and higher software prices as well). Many Iwata Asks invoke the wisdom of Yamauchi and Yokoi, with stuff like the "box to play Mario" quote. But the decision to launch a $300/$350 console and $250 handheld with higher software thresholds for each runs directly in contrast to such wisdom. This is what's so perplexing.
 
Price is definitely the main issue. They will need a big price cut on top of their irresistible exclusives.

They will lose hundreds of millions in the short term, like MS and Sony did last gen.

Their userbase will grow and they will recoup over time. They will sell more games and find ways to monetize their digital initiatives: miiverse, app expansion on smartphones, synergies with their handheld line of business, eshop openess to indies, etc.
 
Even if Wii U is a GCN level failure, it's not like the company blew up last time that happened. They can hugely contract from the heights of the DS/Wii period and still be pushing numbers similar to or larger than what they were doing the previous two decades as a hardware maker.
A Human Becoming said:
Price cut is not happening. They're already selling it at a loss, they can't afford to lose even more money on it. Besides, it's not five hundred and ninety-nine US dollars.
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They can if they want to. The nice thing about making huge profit for so long is it gives them flexibility to do such things short-term, if they actually thought it would make the difference.
Cheebo said:
They had GBA to mitigate the GCN last time. 3DS is no GBA.
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They've had more trouble with it being sold at a loss, but in terms of actual units it's very similar so far.
3DS_WW

Cheebo said:
Software sales are way way way lower than GBA had.
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It doesn't seem terribly behind, unless there are tens more millions of unsold 3DS games and they just keep shipping anyway.
3DS_WW_SW
 
marc^o^ said:
Price is definitely the main issue. They will need a big price cut on top of their irresistible exclusives.

They will lose hundreds of millions in the short term, like MS and Sony did last gen.

Their userbase will grow and they will recoup over time. They will sell more games and find ways to monetize their digital initiatives: miiverse, app expansion on smartphones, synergies with their handheld line of business, eshop openess to indies, etc.
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I agree. Unfortunately, Iwata set a goal of $100M in profits when he should have promised growth in revenue. I think greatly expanding customers and revenue at the expense of profits would have given investors confidence in future ROI.
 
RPGCrazied said:
I still say its the games. If they released a new Zelda, 3D Mario and Metroid, their numbers now would be a lot better.

All we have now really is ports that you can already play on your 360/PS3. The other titles are really forgettable.
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The Metroid series is among the lowest selling Nintendo franchises. Zelda games are as well, unfortunately. Neither of them really qualify as "evergreen" titles.

3D Mario hardly even qualifies. Mario Galaxy numbers were much lower than New Super Mario Bros. Wii and other Nintendo evergreen titles.

Remember, even if every single one of the gamers like us who can appreciate games like those bought a Wii U, it still wouldn't even be approaching the success of Wii. They need another game on the level of Wii Sports to instantly sell the system to those who try it (which they do not have), and then titles like Mario Kart and NSMB to sell to that crowd.
 
Harlock said:
Nah, Pachter only get the easy ones.

I want to see him say who will win the next generation, Sony or MS.
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His definition of 'win' and the Internet's is most likely vastly different. The internet thinks selling the most consoles = win, which is an incredibly stupid metric to use.

10k said:
Michael Pachters Parents: A Mistake They Never Recovered From
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This kind of stupidity will end well for you.
 
Off topic but, I keep hearing more or less positive things about Miiverse. Is it really that good? How would you rate it compared to what Sony or MS have?
 
I think that Nintendo made a mistake by not introducing, or really trying to change up, some IPs. If the stats are correct and the average age of a gamer is somewhere in his thirties, that means that he or she has been exposed to Mario, Zelda, and the gang's games for almost thirty years. There's a good chance that fatigue has set in with these franchises for many people. I just don't see how releasing another Mario Kart game will get people to buy the console.

When it comes to Zelda or Metroid, I think Nintendo REALLY needs to shake things up. Die hard fans don't want change but I think they have to change in order to sell consoles. Like it or not, an open world Skyrim like Zelda would get non Wii U/ Nintendo fans talking. Same thing for Metroid. The problem, of course for me, with these games is that you know 50% of what to expect before you start the game. They need to surprise us again. That's what OoT and Prime did.

Nintendo also destroyed the Wii name. They let the Wii die on the vine for over two years releasing no games and providing nothing new. Gamers and casuals realized this. I remember when I was a kid going to Toys R Us and seeing the wall of Nintendo games. Just rows and rows of games with little slips to take to the cage. Every time I went, there seemed to be something new to see. Fast forward to kids with Wiis. Your mom takes you to the store and you run to the game isle to see what new games have come out. Hmmm, nothing new. A month later, you check again....nothing new. Meanwhile, the ps3 and 360 sections are the ones with rows and rows of new games. "Mom....can I have an xbox?!!"
 
I know this was something like 500 posts ago now, but I just read Pachter's clarification.

And now I'm floored, because this might be his very first analysis of Nintendo that I've ever agreed with. In fact, it's basically exactly what I've been discussing with friends now for the past several weeks. Nintendo has a very short window of time to turn things around right now. (And I'm 100% certain that this was the reason behind their recent Wii U-focused Nintendo Direct -- it was a desperate attempt to drum up interest/buzz around the console. They knew in advance that those January NPD numbers were going to be abysmal.)
 
The only mistake here is Pachter actually thinking he know about the video game industry, when clearly he doesn't.

The guy is a grade A moron and should be treated as one.
 
Rash said:
The Gamepad is cutting edge in terms of the streaming technology, not the tablet interface.

Miiverse is cutting edge in terms of integration with games, not in its basic Twitter-like functions. It's not a big revolution but it's a fresh application for social media in the gaming context.
Click to expand...

Nintendo hasn't bothered to inform anyone why they should care about either of these things.
 
Samurai-Don said:
The only mistake here is Pachter actually thinking he know about the video game industry, when clearly he doesn't.

The guy is a grade A moron and should be treated as one.
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a little over the top, dontchya think? regardless of pachters predictions, right or wrong, why is this man so deserving of your hate?
 
plank said:
Off topic but, I keep hearing more or less positive things about Miiverse. Is it really that good? How would you rate it compared to what Sony or MS have?
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I wouldn't call a social network "good" by itself, but there sure are a lot of great drawings there. Many of the users are really talented. Otherwise it is what you'd expect. A mix between Twitter and message board, where you can post text, b&w drawings and screenshots. Some games interact with Miiverse at runtime, but not many. Only Mario and Nintendo Land so far. Moderation is somewhat strict which is putting some people a bit off. Otherwise the usual stuff, notifications, following, etc. It's still under construction I guess. There will be some changes, but nothing too serious.
 
Rash said:
The Gamepad is cutting edge in terms of the streaming technology, not the tablet interface.

Miiverse is cutting edge in terms of integration with games, not in its basic Twitter-like functions. It's not a big revolution but it's a fresh application for social media in the gaming context.
Click to expand...

hoos30 said:
Nintendo hasn't bothered to inform anyone why they should care about either of these things.
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Basically. Miiverse's current incarnation seems clever but not system selling. Nintendo needs to make it clear why it's system selling, or improve it so it's more than merely clever, or both. Because right now it's a slightly less useful twitter with the ability to screenshot games and share sketches.

My problem with the streaming (as cutting edge as it may be) is why should I care? My TV is literally my TV so off-screen play isn't a compelling feature. So the cutting edgeness is lost on me, as what it's doing currently (for me) could be entirely replaced by smartglass or an on-screen UI.
 
plank said:
Off topic but, I keep hearing more or less positive things about Miiverse. Is it really that good? How would you rate it compared to what Sony or MS have?
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They don't really have anything comparable. It's basically just a very simple moderated forum for Twitter-length comments or black/white drawings. Going to the separate Miiverse application and checking a game's community you're only going to get any idea what people in the last few minutes or hours had to say, but I think the integration in NSMBU is pretty interesting: you have the option to see messages made about specific stages on the map, or sometimes when you lose at a stage.
speedline said:
If Nintendo stock falls to $5 a share I might grab some. It may never go back to $80 but would be worth a shot at $5/share.
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Neither Google nor Yahoo's finance sites show a time far enough back to when they were anything like that. Yahoo shows them in the $6-7 area in mid-late SNES days, though.
 
Miiverse will be 10x better once they implement custom communities.
 
Cosmozone said:
I wouldn't call a social network "good" by itself, but there sure are a lot of great drawings there. Many of the users are really talented. Otherwise it is what you'd expect. A mix between Twitter and message board, where you can post text, b&w drawings and screenshots. Some games interact with Miiverse at runtime, but not many. Only Mario and Nintendo Land so far. Moderation is somewhat strict which is putting some people a bit off. Otherwise the usual stuff, notifications, following, etc. It's still under construction I guess. There will be some changes, but nothing too serious.
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A bit of a tangent here, but where I see Miiverse excelling a bit is with RPGs. I believe they see this too (adding Miiverse areas for games that aren't released yet).
 
It's ironic Pachter modified his statement on GAF's percentage of assholes to 5%.

He might get that many banned in this thread at the rate it's going.
 
If Nintendo wasn't coming off the Wii and DS, by far their most successful console and handheld from a sales standpoint, you could make an argument they won't recover. But those two devices brought them back into the spotlight, and Nintendo's not going to throw in the towel because of one botched launch (two counting the 3DS, but they seemed to have righted that ship). In the end, they'll likely still make money on the console and just move on to the next one. Nintendo has a knack of doing that.
 
ii Stryker said:
when it comes to the gamepad I'm thinking MS and Sony in all likelihood will offer the ability to do something similar with existing/surface tablets.
Click to expand...
The gamepad is superior to these solutions in three ways: it comes standard with the console, it has buttons and sticks and it is lag free. Which wins over them easily in usefulness. Whether customers realize this or not is another question, though. Nintendo needs to convey the advantages better.
 
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