Cosmonaut X
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Echoes of ioi...
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PantherLotus: I like to compare faulty numbers!
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Hammer24 said:
Hmmm.... See the thing is, I don't think Panther is a bad poster. I'm just annoyed when someone who should know better, especially someone like him, decides to take a lazy route and make a really faulty comparison like this. It just defeats the entire purpose of the point of sales-age discussions.
I think the 400k extra from DQIV and FFIV should be added to this year's total too, taking it close to 3 million, right?duckroll said:While we wait for him to defend himself, let's poke more holes at this faulty analysis. Assuming it's a Jan to Dec yearly comparison (which isn't how S-E files their financials anyway, but let's ignore that) we're looking at the DQIV and FFIV numbers for 2007 being inflated by a total of about 400k. So the yearly sales for 2007 is more like 6 million total. For 2008 so far, he's ignoring CT DS and TLR which are already out, and have contributed over 300k in additional sales which isn't in this chart at all. It pushes 2008 to almost 2 million. Dissidia is S-E's big 2008 title, and will likely push at least 500k before the year ends.
2.5 million vs 6 million is down by 58%. Last I checked, in terms of statistics there's a pretty big difference between 58% and 74%. To state that there is not enough to significantly alter the analysis is bullshit. The purpose of sales analysis is to discuss factual and accurate data in an attempt to more accurately forecast future sales and study sales trends. Something as inaccurate as this serves no purpose at all here except to a) pimp Chart Get, b) confuse people, c) incite potential flame wars over inaccurate data to begin with.
I'm really disappointed.
drakesfortune
Directions: Pull String For Uninformed Rant
TheGrayGhost said:
Sadly this. I think the whole Wii thing has hit Japan much, much harder than the rest of the world, where Wii seems to coexist with the PS360 much more peacefully. In Japan the HD consoles have sold very poorly, and that wasn't the plan for most devs I don't think. So devs have had to change course and move to portables for Japan. In the states and in Europe the PS360 are doing much better, so big budget western HD games sell very well.
Regardless, FF13 will sell bucket-loads. I hope that with FF13 finally we'll see more mass adoption of the PS3 in Japan, and hopefully that will kick start the HD gen there. Otherwise the current course of quality hand held games and average HD games will continue out of there, and that's pretty sad.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Trying to work around some of the criticisms with the tools at hand:
Square Enix games released after 2007-01-01 with known Famitsu sales through the week beginning 2007-11-12: 3.78 million from 14 games
Square Enix games released after 2008-01-01 with known Famitsu sales through the week beginning 2008-11-10: 1.69 million from 10 games
2008 is still way down.
EDIT: Note though that yeah, since these use the latest official Famitsu numbers, this doesn't include the first weeks of CTDS or TLR. So with an extra week in, 2008 would be less down; past the half-point of where 2007 was, anyway.
Square Enix games released after 2007-01-01 with known Famitsu sales through the week beginning 2007-11-12: 3.78 million from 14 games
Square Enix games released after 2008-01-01 with known Famitsu sales through the week beginning 2008-11-10: 1.69 million from 10 games
2008 is still way down.
EDIT: Note though that yeah, since these use the latest official Famitsu numbers, this doesn't include the first weeks of CTDS or TLR. So with an extra week in, 2008 would be less down; past the half-point of where 2007 was, anyway.
JoshuaJSlone said:
The criticism isn't that sales AREN'T down, it's simply that his entire comparison is flawed. The thread wasn't "Square Enix sales down in 2008", but instead it was "Japan: Square Enix sales down by 74% in 2008" or something like that. That's unacceptable imo.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I appreciate the criticism here, that's why I love you guys--you're the best peer review one could ever have.
1. Fiscal vs. Calendar: clearly there's a difference, and I'm definitely operating under calendar time for charting (visual vs. cognitive) purposes. I would be happy to do additional analysis for fiscal years, but we have a considerable amount more time left in FY09. The important thing would be a consistent time period for which to compare, which brings us to:
2. Time left in the year: great point to the people that have pointed this out. The post/article did point out that data did not include TLR or CTDS, but I operated under the false assumption that *to date* would be assumed by the reader as well. And:
3. My mistake was including the last 4 weeks of data for 2007 in the analysis. I will go back tonight and make corrections as warranted, but I stand by the original conclusion as that data will not alter the significance: Square Enix is having a horrendously bad year, and CTDS/TLR will not change that; the number of releases are considerably down; and SE's number of releases follows a noticeable pattern and should increase the following year(s). The interesting conclusion of systems for which they are releasing games is a natural one.
4. I highly respect sales-age GAF, but I don't appreciate the comparisons to ioi. He steals others data, makes up others data, and uses it as his own which is reprehensible in my opinion. I do none of that and I never will. The OP's new title is lolz, though.
1. Fiscal vs. Calendar: clearly there's a difference, and I'm definitely operating under calendar time for charting (visual vs. cognitive) purposes. I would be happy to do additional analysis for fiscal years, but we have a considerable amount more time left in FY09. The important thing would be a consistent time period for which to compare, which brings us to:
2. Time left in the year: great point to the people that have pointed this out. The post/article did point out that data did not include TLR or CTDS, but I operated under the false assumption that *to date* would be assumed by the reader as well. And:
3. My mistake was including the last 4 weeks of data for 2007 in the analysis. I will go back tonight and make corrections as warranted, but I stand by the original conclusion as that data will not alter the significance: Square Enix is having a horrendously bad year, and CTDS/TLR will not change that; the number of releases are considerably down; and SE's number of releases follows a noticeable pattern and should increase the following year(s). The interesting conclusion of systems for which they are releasing games is a natural one.
4. I highly respect sales-age GAF, but I don't appreciate the comparisons to ioi. He steals others data, makes up others data, and uses it as his own which is reprehensible in my opinion. I do none of that and I never will. The OP's new title is lolz, though.
Look, like I said, I appreciate analysis and the work put into it, especially to simplify data and explain it for people that don't generally want to, you know spend hours doing it themselves. But if the data is pretty damn off, like it is here, that's kinda hard to appreciate or be very useful.
Jonnyram said:
Not to mention KH DS. They're even doing a DSi bundle with that, so both Feb and March should be very good for S-E. The total sales from KH DS, SO4, DQIX and FFVIIACC (I guess that might not be counted since it's not a game, but it's still part of their business) will should eclipse the total sales in the rest of 2008, so it's not like they're doing badly this year at all in terms of sales. It's just been a slow year outside of major releases. S-E yearly sales are always up and down, it's not like this is the first time it ever happened.
Stink said:
It means Games merge with Movies merge with TV merge with Collectible Action figures, thus increasing revenue streams tremendously for a company like SquareEnix, that stands to gain significantly if they can get those FF fans to buy all of those products every time they release a new game, and not just the game itself.
Edit: As a thought on the discussion that Duckroll et al are having, I think this conversation is unnecessarily heated because so many of the JGAF followers consider SquareEnix to be one of their favorite game developers. If this were a discussion about Tecmo, I'm pretty confident the discussion wouldn't have turned out this way. Specifically, I think all of these corrections to Panthers work would have been phrased in just that way -- as corrections -- and not as they have been, a "you're wrong, this is flawed and bad."
I know Panther loves corrections. If you see flaws in the way the data is presented, I'm sure he'd love to know about them. However, there is a big difference between saying "This data may not show a fully accurate picture. Here is why, and here is how I would change it," and something significantly more negative like "This data is flawed and it's silly and the OP is just like Ioi."
Again, that extra tinge of hostility -- rather than constructive criticism -- leads me to believe that some people here have too much invested in the company we happen to be analyzing. And Panther, if I've misrepresented you in some way, please let me know.
Opiate said:
I'm kind of getting the same vibe here. He's been open about it being NOT the fiscal year, and the only real mistake I see as he's noticed would be including the final weeks of '07 and deriving a percentage out of it. Looking at JoshuaJSlone's graphs, '08 (actual) seems very sparse. It's hard to say how well a port of an SNES title and a 360 (timed?) exclusive are going to sell the rest of the year anyway, imo.
duckroll said:
I know this is a joke, but my hope was simply to avoid childish and insulting attitudes. If you look at my post history, I'm sure you'll find I've made many similar pleas, most recently in one of the host of "LBP bomba" discussions.
It's not a PantherLotus thing, it's a "I don't like hostile discussions in a purportedly mature forum," and posts like "Are you his girlfriend" aren't helping. Can we please just all move towards the goal of reasonable analysis? For example, I absolutely agree with JonnyRam (among others) who say that calendar year projections aren't very meaningful for corporations on fiscal year cycles, particularly when they have major releases scheduled for Q4.
TheOneGuy said:
If a title performs under 50k, I don't think we can really say it'll be better or worse for gaming, since it just means most people haven't played it. I honestly think one of the core problems is that S-E has done a really crappy job communicating to consumers what their DS offerings are. Sigma Harmonics was completely incomprehensible in the previews and trailers for example, and because of that, I simply had no interest in buying it. Sure, I like to support developers who try new things, but first I have to have some sort of informed opinion of whether I might enjoy the game first, otherwise it would be potentially throwing money down the toilet. Having failed to communicate that to me, they lost a sale. I'm sure that applies for many of their offerings over the year.
Jonnyram said:
My numbers aren't 100% complete either, but I posted a comparison for Square-Enix for sales from January-September for 2002-2008 on page 2.
donny2112 said:
Any concern for Square-Enix's financials should be tempered by the fact that DQVI and DQIX will probably release in the first nine months next year, anyways.
Edit:
Plus your point about comparing FY releases makes a whole lot of sense, too.
duckroll said:
Agreed.
PantherLotus said:
He started out with posting tons of links to his site with relevant comparisons of current game's performance to historical numbers. I don't recall if he was already using his "averaging" method for the Japanese numbers or just using base Famitsu numbers. The reason he got banned, at the time, was all the linking he did to his site, though.
You're correct in that you're not making up data, as he devolved into.
Yeah, I know what you say is right. I completely understand and empathize with your position.duckroll said:
But I, for one, don't care about games like FFXII -- one of the "big" games. I am very interested, however, in games like TWEWY! (Thankfully, that one succeeded. Sadly, I still have yet to play it!)
Also I'm still bitter at SE about them shitting on Mana.
duckroll said:Yeah I'm sure the best way to avoid childish and insulting attitudes is by suggesting that people that are attacking the flawed data are simply S-E fanboys. Sorry, I don't buy that, so having said that, are you his girlfriend?
Do you not see a difference between the way I've phrased my criticisms and the way others have? That was my whole point to begin with: the manner with which we approach a topic effects its meaning and perecption. Saying "duckroll is a SquareEnix fanboy who will protect the mother company at all costs" is a far cry from what I actually did say, that emotional investment in the company has tainted the discussion with a hostile tone, instead of a constructive one.
You do see that's what I'm asking for? I've already voiced my own criticism of this analysis, and it's a pretty significant critique. There's no question that I consider Panther a friend, for example. Why couldn't you have simply said, "Just as you claim our attitudes may be affected by our affection for SquareEnix, so too may your position be affected by your friendship with the original poster." That would be a reasonable argument to make that I think has some merit, as no person can be absolutely objective. Instead, you said, "Are you his girlfriend?" which expresses the same general idea as the former statement, just in a sophomoric and mean spirited way.
To be honest, there are times when I don't mind puerile behavior. It can be endearing in the right circumstances. My larger problem is the hostile tone some of these criticisms have taken. For example -- using your own word -- why are you "attacking" the data? That's the sort of hostile approach I'd personally like to avoid whenever possible.
I don't think it's really fair to call PantherLotus ioi right now. It's kinda like comparing someone in the US military to Hitler. Just.... uncalled for. On the other hand, I think it's silly that we should have some obligation to keep things completely unaggressive when presenting a point. He's not 12 years old and he's not going to run to mommy and cry because I said his data is fucking terrible here.
I'm simply stating that there IS an obligation for sales-age threads to have a relevant purpose and point. For casual observations and discussions, there are weekly Media Create threads. When he makes a thread like this, the analysis has a certain formal tone to it, which to casual readers seem to imply that there is some importance to the analysis. Unfortunately in this case there is none. It is not a complete yearly comparison, and it is not a comparison on a particularly interesting or significant period. To add to that, the numbers are wrong. It's hard to react to that with a positive attitude.
Edit:
It's true that I'm probably only in this thread because Square Enix as a publisher is part of my interest. It is untrue that my hostile tone has anything to do with that. If this was a Tecmo thread, I probably wouldn't even read it, but if I did and it had the same factual errors, I would react in the same way. My pet peeve is inaccurate facts, that's all.
Sorry but "are you his girlfriend" is shorter and funnier imo. It gets the message across, and I don't think it's particularly hostile, just a dig at how much text to put in to defend him when he seems to be pretty okay with all the criticism himself.
I'm attacking the data because it's inaccurate, as stated above. I can't stand that.
I'm simply stating that there IS an obligation for sales-age threads to have a relevant purpose and point. For casual observations and discussions, there are weekly Media Create threads. When he makes a thread like this, the analysis has a certain formal tone to it, which to casual readers seem to imply that there is some importance to the analysis. Unfortunately in this case there is none. It is not a complete yearly comparison, and it is not a comparison on a particularly interesting or significant period. To add to that, the numbers are wrong. It's hard to react to that with a positive attitude.
Edit:
Opiate said:
It's true that I'm probably only in this thread because Square Enix as a publisher is part of my interest. It is untrue that my hostile tone has anything to do with that. If this was a Tecmo thread, I probably wouldn't even read it, but if I did and it had the same factual errors, I would react in the same way. My pet peeve is inaccurate facts, that's all.
Sorry but "are you his girlfriend" is shorter and funnier imo. It gets the message across, and I don't think it's particularly hostile, just a dig at how much text to put in to defend him when he seems to be pretty okay with all the criticism himself.
I'm attacking the data because it's inaccurate, as stated above. I can't stand that.
duckroll said:I'm attacking the data because it's inaccurate, as stated above. I can't stand that.
The data itself isn't inaccurate though, is it? It's just an odd comparison, and the percentage he originally drew was inaccurate. Since he's made adjustments and stated his position, what's the problem?
I think the point of the thread is the whole 'media convergence' aspect, which seems to make some sense. If TV/Movies/Games/Toys whatever are combining, we see this is all the Final Fantasy ancillary markets (including Advent Children), the clothes brand tie in to Versus XIII, and the licensed games released this year (like Soul Eater). Trying to tie all of this in currently (in the case of Versus XIII and I'd guess the FFXIII Demo with AC) could cause delays, and the actual (not fiscal) year for 2008 seems pretty thin.
Also notable is that many of their Cell Phone titles, as irrelevant as they seem, were canceled and reincarnated as PSP titles, which in my mind draws away from this strategy.
The only reason people are calling you out as a fanboy that I can see is that you aren't even taking his follow-up into consideration and your counters include S-E list wars (as in 'What about KH DS and the bundle and IX etc etc'). Those are actual 09 titles anyway, which is irrelevant for this comparison.
Perdew said:
It's inaccurate. DQIV and FFIV did NOT sell those numbers in 2007. Which part of that do you not understand? In all of the year 2007, they did not sell those numbers. It's not an odd comparison, it's just flat out wrong.
There's only one person who attempted to call me a fanboy, that does not fall under "people". If you read the goddamn thread, you'll see what we're talking about. My mention of 09 titles only come in because Jonnyram points out that S-E is only interested in fiscal year numbers, which is true. Those are 2008 titles by fiscal year, but yes that is not part of THIS comparison which is lacking Dissidia, S-E's major Dec title.
His follow-up changes nothing, he is simply admitting that he made a dumb comparison and he got called out on it. There's no need to take anything into consideration.
duckroll said:
The part I don't understand is why people are assuming that's the comparison. He doesn't double list titles; I thought it was obvious he was talking about sales of games LTD released in each year. Like I said, I think it's an odd comparison, especially given that '07 games have had longer to sell.
I did read the thread and I find it horrendously off topic and brash to start list wars like that, otherwise I wouldn't post. Even here I feel you're overreacting. I understand that S-E (like most companies) care about their fiscal years more so than actual. As it's been pointed out and I didn't disagree with, comparing December numbers was wrong, and Dissisia may or may not be a huge hit (honestly, given the type of game it is, I think it could go either way in sales. I definitely think it will be over 300k, but I don't know if it'll pull 700k+ like Crisis Core... but that's another discussion for another thread).
I'm not trying to start a fight here, but I'm interested in part of this thread and I feel like you've really derailed it with the title change and posts. Maybe it shouldn't be sales age and just concentrate on their 'strategy' if you want to use your mod power and PantherLotus agrees.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Ducky you do seem to be uncharacteristically hostile in this thread. I've never seen you act so...weird. You seem to have a lot invested in proving this as more than a bad comparison but as intentionally deceiving. Why? Because it certainly isn't.
Is the included data really wrong? If I need to adjust the way I'm researching on JJ's amazing tool @ garaph, I definitely need to know about that. The way I looked up 2007 was from 2007-01-01 to 2008-01-01. I thought the LTD would be for the last day included in the search?
Is the included data really wrong? If I need to adjust the way I'm researching on JJ's amazing tool @ garaph, I definitely need to know about that. The way I looked up 2007 was from 2007-01-01 to 2008-01-01. I thought the LTD would be for the last day included in the search?
Perdew said:
How is it obvious that he's talking about sales of games LTD released in each year when the title of the article in question is that sales are down by 74% for S-E in Japan in 2008? I would love for a good explaination.
I think what you consider a "list war" is pretty different from what a list war actually is. I was simply replying to what Jonnyram was saying. How is that off-topic when he was stating a point which was on topic? It wasn't even in response to anything PantherLotus posted or said. Answer that carefully.
So I'm overreacting, even though you understand and agree with everything I said. Gotcha.
If you're interested in factually inaccurate comparisons with sensationalist titles that aren't even true, then you are free to go to his site and discuss it. He will no longer be posting stuff like that on GAF as long as I'm around.
PantherLotus said:
You're not new at this. I expect a higher standard than this. The numbers are sloppy. Come on, I'm not saying you've LYING, but simply that you're wrong. And running an entire article on data that's wrong is just pointless.
I don't know what tools you're using, but look at this chart for example: http://geimin.net/da/07/rank_fa.php
In 2007, FFIV sold 447,087 and DQIV sold 1,052,827. Those are Famitsu numbers for all of 2007.
PistolGrip
sex vacation in Guam
Though Panther usually does these casual comparisons and arguments, I do believe its important to have these discussions though because they allow many of us to learn from knowledgeable posters but confuses others.
PistolGrip said:
I like that he actually replies to criticism, and sometimes he does have a valid point in the discussion, but yes I do have a serious problem when he presents what might be otherwise a rather compelling argument, only to use numbers which are just off. It's annoying because when you attack those numbers people often come in (like that have here) to defend certain parts of the discussion, ignoring the fact that the problem we have is that the NUMBERS are wrong.
Edit: Lol, your stealth edit got busted!
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