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[Dusk Golem]

Honestly, I think a big part of the problem is that there's a lack of unison in console space. When there's three machines competing that come out around the same time that are all fairly expensive, with a limited selection of those expensive games possible on each console with other options locked out if you don't own them, and a new console comes to replace the older consoles every few years, plus other expenses (like online fees and services), I think such a model is part of the reason it's 'dying' (I do think that's an exaggerated term). While I don't think this will change anytime soon, I do suspect we'll eventually move away from this model ; Competition is good, but convenience and universalizability are also important, and it's amusing to think how other entertainment industries would fair if they were this expensive and had this many restrictions of what you could and could not experience based on what you had.

 

[4Tran]

I wouldn't want to read too much into the numbers, but they're not too surprising. The huge drop from Wii to Wii U was bound to show up somewhere, and this is a likely venue for them. However, I think that it's important to compartmentalize the business segment to determine what this data actually represents. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo is a lot more affected by it than most other gaming companies.

A 1 point decline does not mean it's dying.

The more important factor lies in console ownership among younger adults. The overall loss will only be represented in the data when PS360/Wii consoles die and don't get replaced.

 

[JoseLopez]

What's your evidence for this

Contracting is literally what the graphs suggest and like the other poster said anything could happen to shift the paradigm I'm mean the industry has survived an entire economic collapse in the 80s.

 

[jroc74]

I believe we will all be surprised how fast mobile technology will catch up, in 5 years we will look dumbfounded at the capabilities of smartphones. .... but don't quote me on that

Smartphones are either close to catching up now or already have. I still rock a dual core PC...many smartphones are on quad core. Motorola had a phone that could dock into a laptop dock and have a laptop UI...in 2010 or 2011. Some folks modded their phones so that you didnt need the laptop dock. Just hook up the phone to your TV and bam desktop, laptop on your TV.

In 2010 streaming/mirroring your phone screen to a TV was kinda new...now its the norm.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

1% decline over 6 years.

"Slowly dying."

O.K.

Enjoy console gaming while it lasts.

At this rate, it'll be dead by 2255.

 

[mclem]

I dare to claim that Steam and rise of the indie makes that a false statement. I have played more indie games in last year than I have played AAA games.

On consoles? Perhaps you are right. In industry? No.

Oh, yes, I was referring to the AAA industry specifically. Indies are certainly finding a healthy niche. There's issues on that front too - discovery, notably - but they seem to be able to thrive.

 

[LegendofLex]

The energy around gaming....where last gen as a whole is the first time in years... probably ever... that the difference between 1, 2, 3 was so close. To me that says the energy was fine...

Why were they close, though? Were lots of people buying both an Xbox/PS3 and a Wii?Were people who bought just an Xbox also buying a PS3? How many people would have come into any of these ecosystems without the energy around gaming that came with Wii?

especially with PS3 and XBO having yet to be discontinued and still selling ok after current gen launched and still have games made for and selling ok on last gen. Last gen is dying off....but their decline didnt came as soon as the Wii's.

I think still having games made for them and them not being discontinued is probably the reason why they're still selling. I also think that having fewer games for it after 2010 and being discontinued is probably the reason why Wii stopped selling. (It still had its best Black Friday in 2011, so the potential sure hadn't gone anywhere.) Lord knows Wii games are still selling, indicating that the demand isn't fully being met.

If we read charts, graphs like we all like to.....the Wii sure looks like an anomaly to me.

Wii's ascent and decline curves look more or less like Nintendo 64's and GameCube's (ascent in years 2 and 3, peak at year 4, decline in years 5 and 6 as the successor is brought to market and fewer high-profile games come out), with the difference being that Wii had much, much better system sellers and therefore there's an order of magnitude difference in the numbers on that curve.

And if Nintendo's market focus was in the same place as it was with the Wii:

It woulda been called Wii 2 and still had Wiimotes and nunchucks as main controllers. IMO.

I wonder why it isn't selling to the Wii market? ;p

 

[ScatheZombie]

I hate when graphs skew data points by comparing different data sets against each other.

In the top graph, consoles are measured from 2009 to 2015. In that time they dropped... 1 point. But, for some reason, the PC graph is measured from 2004 to 2015. If you look at PC in 2009, it's pretty damn close to 80%, well be generous and say 78%. So, PC actually dropped 78% to 73% in the same time period. Comparing different time blocks is dumb, because different market factors happened between 2004 and 2009 that aren't accounted for in the console graph.

In the bottom graph, we're again comparing numbers from different years in order to make the drop look worse than it is. The only two shared data points between consoles and PC is 2010 and 2015. Comparing those, PC dropped 10%, consoles dropped 6%.

In both cases, PC has a greater contraction than console. Yet, neither is dying, and both industries are arguably as healthy as ever. Stupid graphs are stupid.

 

[Sumio Mondo]

A factor is the lack of interest in children now (see: Nintendo and the lack of interest kids seems to have with the big N nowadays, having said that, I hope that Nintendo defy all odds and make a come back), so really they're aiming at already established adult fanbases who have been playing games for years and years and when said fanbases are getting older, they might just move on from playing games regularly (and therefore just buy the usual sorts of games or stick with mobile phone games due to convenience). Plus the mobile market is just cheaper and easier to play for people, everything being on one device like that.

 

[Portugeezer]

Weren't a lot of those about how dedicated desktop PC's were dying out? I would like to know the split between laptop and desktop because most of my friends have moved to laptops.

From what I remember it was because consoles started to get a lot of games/franchises from previously PC developers, so people said PC was dying.

 

[Hoje0308]

No company is satisfied with selling the same number of units every five years. If they can't keep selling more consoles every cycle they'll turn their attention elsewhere (or, as we're already seeing, find ways to squeeze even more money out of the existing userbase)

Come on, there's no way you actually believe that. If Sony or MS are selling 80m every gen, they're not suddenly going to turn their backs on a money printing machine. Stop with the alarmist nonsense.

 

[Lime]

Really interesting stats:

 

[LegendofLex]

Come on, there's no way you actually believe that. If Sony or MS are selling 80m every gen, they're not suddenly going to turn their backs on a money printing machine. Stop with the alarmist nonsense.

Do we really think Sony and MS are going to be able to achieve generation-level improvements every gen without driving up costs and that their markets won't shrink when this happens? Higher costs + smaller markets will inevitably mean it stops being a money-printing machine. In the very best-case scenario, they'll have to settle with selling relatively fewer people relatively more expensive machines.

 

[Square2015]

2013 is inflated because by then every American and their grandma had a Wii, in the two years since people began selling them/putting them away. Now it's getting back to normal.

 

[LPride]

Enjoy the work and scope of games we have now. Times won't last.

Thank God. I cannot wait for the market to correct itself, the overproduced piles we have today are awful. I cannot wait for full voice acting to go away

 

[4Tran]

Come on, there's no way you actually believe that. If Sony or MS are selling 80m every gen, they're not suddenly going to turn their backs on a money printing machine. Stop with the alarmist nonsense.

Dedicated gaming consoles are important to Sony so I can imagine them staying in the business as long as the the prospect of profits still exist, but I can definitely see Microsoft dropping it.

 

[ChaoticBlue]

A factor is the lack of interest in children now (see: Nintendo and the lack of interest kids seems to have with the big N nowadays, having said that, I hope that Nintendo defy all odds and make a come back), so really they're aiming at already established adult fanbases who have been playing games for years and years and when said fanbases are getting older, they might just move on from playing games regularly (and therefore just buy the usual sorts of games or stick with mobile phone games due to convenience). Plus the mobile market is just cheaper and easier to play for people, everything being on one device like that.

Nintendo brought in all the casual gamers who would otherwise have no interest in console gaming. After the Wii, these casual gamers simply went away to other types of gaming like mobile. This dropoff sounds like the "console gaming is dying" but consoles are not going to die anytime soon.

There will always be a market for console gaming: before the Wii and after the Wii.

 

[Nabbis]

By the time consoles die, smartphones might actually have good games. So im okay with this.

 

[Breads]

Graph shows trend!

Surely this means the end is near.

Console gaming has been "dying" since the mid 80s. Just saying.

 

[Alo0oy]

Really interesting stats:

If it's demo percentages, it is very interesting indeed.

 

[mclem]

I believe we will all be surprised how fast mobile technology will catch up, in 5 years we will look dumbfounded at the capabilities of smartphones. .... but don't quote me on that

The overwhelming issue there isn't really the ability to get the power in a small form as much as it is doing so without melting people's thighs.

 

[CrunchyFrog]

And PC is growing rapidly. My how the tables have turned.

 

[Kyzer]

I really don't think it's that slow.

And PC is growing rapidly. My how the tablets have turned.

Fixed.

The future is upon us.

 

[KJRS_1993]

And PC is growing rapidly. My how the tables have turned.

It's only going to continue getting bigger.

People who don't want to play anything for anything more than an hour or two distraction will keep going to tablets and phones, and now PC gaming is more affordable than ever, "hardcore" gamers will want to make the swap.

I don't see how anyone could try and debate that.

Spoiler

Console 4 lyf dough.

 

[Ardenyal]

Enjoy console gaming while it lasts.

At this rate, it'll be dead by 2255.

I can't even imagine how many billions of consoles Xbox One will have sold by then before console gaming just goes poof.

 

[KingV]

Why are you assuming that the Wii is not being counted in this poll?

Unless the actual questions asked said otherwise, It's probably best to assume that owners of any of the Gen 7 & 8 consoles (possibly even earlier) were counted as owners in this data.

Oh, I absolutely think it's counted. I just think that it may have been propping up the households somewhat in gen 7, especially 2011 and earlier.

Edit: on that note, I'm specifically talking about the 18-29 graph. I know a lot of people that only owned a Wii, primarily for parties because bowling or wario wate were fun while drinking with friends.

 

[low-G]

This thread is hilariously stupid.

Can't read statistics. No common sense. All idiocy. There is nothing material here to discuss based on this 'data'.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

I can't even imagine how many billions of consoles Xbox One will have sold by then before console gaming just goes poof.

Some rough multiplication:

(41 x 40/2) = 820
820 x 6 = 4,920 'percentage points' until consoles die forever

25,000,000 / 2 = 12,500,000 PS4 sales per year worldwide
12,500,000 / 40 = 312,500 (value of each 1% of PS4 sales)

4,920 x 312,500 = 1,537,500,000 PS4s sold.

One billion, five-hundred and thirty-seven million, five-hundred thousand. Which should comfortably make it the best selling console of all time.

Assuming the PS4 keeps outselling the Xbox One by a 2:1 ratio, the Xbox One should sell one billion twenty-five million units.

By this same logic, I can exclusively reveal that the Wii U may surpass the GameCube in sales. The Vita still won't have sold enough units to get any first-party releases.

 

[SmokedMeat]

I suspect we'll still get games of current scope, but they'll be on PC.

Without consoles to bring in those big launch sales, there will be far fewer big budget games.

 

[III-V]

It is really stretching to come to the conclusion that the console is dying based on the data presented. From here, it looks like its about the same as it has been for some time. Certain age groups might have gravitated towards other platforms, but no, I don't see dying. If anything, there has been a revival of late.

 

[Warm Machine]

Thank God. I cannot wait for the market to correct itself, the overproduced piles we have today are awful. I cannot wait for full voice acting to go away

Do you think it is the voice acting or the fact that developers spend way more money, time, and effort building games now more than ever before?

 

[Extra Sauce]

On the decline =/= dying

 

[btrboyev]

It is though. Anyone who can't see the writing on the wall is delusional.

Microsoft and Sony let last generation go too long.

Current gen systems aren't major powerhouses like previous gen was.

Japanese market is all but dead

Japanese game developers have been slowly dying since last generation

Market is littered with the same games year after year.

No innovation. Prices are still too high.

 

[Saintruski]

This generation isn't really anything special, skipping it entirely invested in my PC(s). It's nothing like generations of old or even the one before it. Seems so dull not only in the power, but also on exclusives. I've been more interested in getting something I can play the awesome multiplats on with the best experience. Not to mention the best place to experience VR especially for early adopter will be on PC, great time to invest while everything seems so dull.

Dull gen, cheap powerful pcs, mobile gaming and no wii phenomenon really makes a difference.

(Not expecting this gen of consoles to be a long one.)

 

[CadetMahoney]

Current gen systems aren't major powerhouses like previous gen was.

I don't think they'll ever be powerhouses anymore despite the hype of supercomputers and target renders of "what is possible".

Consoles are underpowered for this gens expectations, launch price was high, plus they'll try and shoe-horn in VR next gen and it will be barely able to push two 1080p screens for each eye or at all, even at target 30fps.

(Not expecting this gen of consoles to be a long one.)

I expect them to bleed it dry.

 

[K' Dash]

I await for the day I don't have to buy a console to play games, I'll just go to PSN and stream the game of my choosing to any device, best graphics, 60fps, without using my resources.

That is what I want, that is why consoles should die.

 

[Saintruski]

I expect them to bleed it dry.

Not much blood in them

 

[Renekton]

So... are consoles getting sandwiched by mobile devices and set-tops?

Where will core gamers go?

 

[NOLA_Gaffer]

When you think about it, we're all slowly dying.

 

[ZombiePlatypus]

The first graph only shows a 1% drop over 6 years.

Doooooomed.

It's all doomed.

 

[pvpness]

This kind stuff always reminds me of the arcades of yesterday.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

I just wish the PS4 and Xbox One had more youth friendly games. They have some big name toy to life games and then the list gets short after the Lego titles. Mobile has done an excellent job(offering a mountain of content) of catering to the young.

 

[TheSpoonyBard]

Trends amongst US adults =/= Trends worldwide.

 

[system11]

People really really really really underestimate the appeal of mobile. Especially on GAF.

Yeah but the people they appeal to aren't a part of the real gaming demographic anyway.

It's almost exactly like the Wii, they sell in huge numbers to people who aren't really related to the existing market.

 

[Alpha Phoenix]

Cellphone games are on the rise because it's easy to play Angry Birds while waiting for your McDonald's takeout.

As some have stated already, consoles aren't dying; they are just contracting due to the popularity of cellphones.

Also, U.S. != Worldwide

 

[pvpness]

Yeah but the people they appeal to aren't a part of the real gaming demographic anyway.

It's almost exactly like the Wii, they sell in huge numbers to people who aren't really related to the existing market.

If they play games, they're gamers. They might not get a Triforce tattoo, but they're still spending money on video games and you want them spending that money in the console industry if you're invested in it.

 

[More_Badass]

On the bright side, Rovio is likely to go out of business before console gaming dies.
So that's a minor victory, right?

Yes, 500+ people losing their job is definitely a minor victory

Yeah but the people they appeal to aren't a part of the real gaming demographic anyway.

It's almost exactly like the Wii, they sell in huge numbers to people who aren't really related to the existing market.

"Real gaming"...

I thought we were past that silly notion

 

[hydrophilic attack]

The drop from 2008 for "game console" is so small as to possibly be statistical noise.

If console gaming is dying compared to 2008 according to these data, then so is PC ownership.

 

[CartridgeBlower]

Or maybe the Wii U and XBONE had horrible launches and never really caught fire because of bad decisions by the companies that made them?

People always want to find 'trends' and not just look at the actual products that people are given the choice to buy.

 

[system11]

Of course the other obvious point is that the smartphone market is growing really fast because they're still new things in 2011, there are a lot of new customers. If they'd been around for 5 years more the increase would probably be a lot lower or even flat. Would that mean they're dying too? Ditto tablets, they're new to market.