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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread

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S

Souldriver

Member
Suikoguy said:
The larger the sample size, the more accurate it is, ASSUMING you have other factors correct, such as demographics, and sample selection.
There is of course, a point of diminishing returns.
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Yep, but the three polls posted are done by three different trackers. So I'd be weary of just saying "bigger sample = better", since the methodology of the trackers probably differ.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Souldriver said:
Yep, but the three polls posted are done by three different trackers. So I'd be weary of just saying "bigger sample = better", since the methodology of the trackers probably differ.
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Hehe, yeah.

In that case, Rasmussen is always an outlier as it is. I'm still not sure why they get paid.
 
E

el retorno

Member
Tim-E said:
It's a video that's distributed to promote something. That's an ad. Whether or not it's on television doesn't make it an ad or not. Do you not consider web-only 15 second videos you're forced to watch before YouTube videos ads?

Regardless, this is a silly argument to have.
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Its an ad in that sense. But I can´t see it affecting someone whose mind isn´t already made up.

The video is on Obama´s youtube site so someone would have to go to that and find it. My point is that is a hype up video for his supporters not an ad whose goal is to influence voters or change minds.

Those youtube ads are different because you don´t chose them.


PhoenixDark said:
How can you pay attention to social media if you're unemployed and can no longer afford internet/a Mac? This could be good news for Mitt Romney
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lol. I really can´t wait to see how many gems we get like this.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Souldriver said:
I don't know squad about statistics, but I thought that the size of a sample is pretty irrelevant (or at least only of minor importance) to how correct a poll is. The methodology of composing the sample is more important.
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Differences in sample size among those three shouldn't cause any radical difference between results based on size alone. Usually its orders of magnitude before you might have something: 20 vs 200 vs 2000, but once you reach the hundreds range you're pretty much always in diminishing returns range.
 
S

SomeDude

Banned
Anyone see the video where ron paul called the united states a christian nation and that states rights should regulate gay marriage?
 
D

Dr. Pangloss

Member
SomeDude said:
Anyone see the video where ron paul called the united states a christian nation and that states rights should regulate gay marriage?
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Where have you been buddy? Hiding out in your bunker for the end of the world?

Just had a thought. Say Romney wins, obviously will have a Republican Congress if this happens. He gets to enact all of his tax cuts, so Bush tax cuts plus trillions more. Also Ryan gets to enact his Medicare reform, turning it into a premium support system. Now that would be a real tragedy for those nearing retirement, but i'm only 27. I can wait out these changes till something better comes along.

Who thinks that Republicans would be able to win again in 2014? 2016? Not only did they change Medicare, but say their tax cuts deepen the deficit even more. The tax cuts never actually pay for themselves. Now Democrats can pillory them like they have been for Obamacare. They can also attack them for never actually fixing the deficit. As we found out in 2008 when you have all three branches of government, the American people expect results.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
You guys hear UE benefits dropped massively this week? Good news for tomorrow, right?
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Also, I don't really agree with the whole "Romney is competent" thing. What does "competent" mean, anyway? At least in comparison to the other Republican cadidates, do we mean the ability to breathe through one's nose? The ability to talk and blink at the same time? I'm not saying Romney is "dumb" (he even had one or two instances where he out-debated Perfesser Newt), but he says a lot of dumb things. Things that you would think a presidential candidate would be smart enough to avoid.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Oblivion said:
Also, I don't really agree with the whole "Romney is competent" thing. What does "competent" mean, anyway? At least in comparison to the other Republican cadidates, do we mean the ability to breathe through one's nose? The ability to talk and blink at the same time? I'm not saying Romney is "dumb" (he even had one or two instances where he out-debated Perfesser Newt), but he says a lot of dumb things. Things that you would think a presidential candidate would be smart enough to avoid.
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Romney is only the nominee because everyone else in the field was so much worse

Outside winning governorship he has lost just about everything else he has tried to run, he is a horrible politician.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
How can you pay attention to social media if you're unemployed and can no longer afford internet/a Mac? This could be good news for Mitt Romney
Click to expand...

Doesn't Romney have a huge lead with the elderly? I'm willing to bet quite a few of them die before election day. This could be good news for Barack Obama
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Holy crap that Wanda Brown from Missouri is an idiot... The Daily Show just did a thing on her and her bill to prevent firing of anyone for having guns (which passed easily), yet voting against a bill that would prevent firing of LBGT people (which failed). You could tell Asif was almost visibly angry at her idiocy at one point near the end.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Wow, I'm REALLY starting to dislike Romney's family:

To drive home the significance of the Republican candidate's vision, consider the tale of Tagg Romney, the former governor's oldest son.

The New York Times had a fascinating report this week on Tagg getting together in 2008 with Spencer Zwick, a Romney campaign fundraiser, to create a private equity fund called Solamere Capital.

Neither had experience in private equity. But what the close friends did have was the Romney name and a Rolodex of deep-pocketed potential investors who had backed Mr. Romney's presidential run -- more than enough to start them down that familiar path from politics to profit.

Two years later, despite a challenging fund-raising climate for private equity, Solamere, named after a wealthy enclave in Utah's Deer Valley where the Romneys have a winter home, finished raising its first fund. The firm blew past its $200 million goal, securing $244 million from 64 investors, including a critical, early $10 million from Mitt Romney and his wife, Ann, and hefty commitments from wealthy supporters of the campaign.

...

Of course, the larger significance is what the story tells us about the Romney vision of economic opportunity.


To hear Tagg tell it, his political connections were irrelevant. "Our relationships with people got us in the door, but that did not get us investors," he told the Times.

Paul Waldman offered a more compelling perspective.

"Does Tagg Romney actually believe that his dad had nothing to do with his successful entry into the private equity game, and the millions he has made and will continue to make are the result only of his own merit? That his life is radically different from those of the millions of people struggling to get by only because they don't work as hard as he does, or have his gumption and entrepreneurial spirit? Maybe he does. That may strike you and me as utterly insane, but it wouldn't surprise me a bit. [...]

There are a thousand ways in which wealth determines the opportunities available to you, in large part by making things easy. Yes, if you're a poor kid being raised by a single parent who never finished high school, you can get to Harvard. But you're going to have to be one in a million. It's going to take extraordinary spirit, determination, and luck for you to make it. I'm sure Tagg Romney is a fine fellow, but the truth is that even if he was a lazy dolt he'd still do well. He went to the best schools, his parents gave him all kinds of enriching experiences, and he never had to worry about much of anything. He wasn't going to get pulled out of college and have to take a job if one of his parents got sick. When he decided this private equity thing looked interesting, there was an escalator waiting, and all he had to do was hop on. That's opportunity."

Well said.

Look again at what Mitt Romney said last week, while talking to college students, after condemning President Obama for an imaginary "attack" on "success": "Take a shot, go for it, take a risk, get the education, borrow money if you have to from your parents, start a business."

In the Republican's mind, this actually constitutes a vision of opportunity. If you work hard, get into a good school, but can't afford the tuition, Romney believes you'll have the opportunity to find some other college with cheaper tuition. If you're innovating, come up with an idea for a new business, but can't afford the start-up costs, Romney believes you'll have the opportunity to ask your parents for money they may or may not have.

It's not the job of public institutions to create a level playing field; it's the job of individuals to find an unlevel playing field and "take a shot."

It worked out well for Tagg Romney, right?
.
Click to expand...
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Not really. A sudden increase in elderly deaths would only make Obamacare even less popular
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It's the elderly who hate it the most, so that would actually increase its popularity. Would help the deficit, too. Win-win.

I actually take a measure of comfort at knowing where the demographic trends are going, and that includes the current generation of elderly croaking. I realize that sounds harsh, but I'm referring to the portion that wants the government out of their Medicare and teh gay out of everything. The country is becoming a better place as those folks knock off and more tolerant generations replace them.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Wow, I dunno why y'all are pretty pessimistic.

I also don't know why I keep saying y'all.


Anyway, I'm gonna say 185k.
 
C

Chumly

Member
Oblivion said:
Wow, I'm REALLY starting to dislike Romney's family:
Click to expand...

Romney wonders why people think hes out of touch. The avenues he and his family had made him have opportunities that other people don't get. He may have worked hard and earned the money that he has but to act like other people are lazy or need to work harder while supporting slashing education funding and everything else that helps the poor/middle class is ridiculous. Poor/middle class wages are at an all time low compared to the rich while education rates are skyrocketing. People need help getting a good education and saying that you should "find a cheaper college" or go to community college because you cant afford anything else is frankly an asshole thing to do coming from the position hes in. He can harp on class war all he wants but hes an idiot when it comes to reality.
 
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