The data that was trickling in before March's jobs report was very, very positive, and the actual result was underwhelming.
The data that was trickling in before April's jobs report was very, very negative, and the actual result was marginally worse than March's was.
What have we learned, poligaf?
That there's a huge amount of noise in the data. Things pointed to much worse than last month, and the report was 5k less than last month's initial report.
A couple random notes of things I've been watching:
The unemployment rate is now the lowest of Obama's term, at 8.1%. It was 8.3% in February 2009.
The net jobs on Obama's term (from February 2009 on) is now -572k. All but certain to turn positive before the election.
Compared to last year, the YTD is down slightly (+827k vs. 803k). With revisions the next two months, this year will end up ahead, slightly.
Compared to last year, the next few months are almost certain to be better. The combination of the Japanese tsunami working its effect on supply chains, and the debt ceiling fiasco led to May - August job gains of: 54k, 84k, 96k and 85k respectively, before rebounding. I'll be shocked if we don't double that this year.
Still, this month was below my hopes. The improvement in the UI claims last week might be a good sign for next month, but we've seen how fickle the data has been lately.
