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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
pigeon said:
332 is still the most likely result on 538, with over 15% chance of occurring.
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This as well. Of course, that also means the likelihood that I'm wrong is a little under 85%!

el retorno de los sapos said:
The thing I wonder about Florida and Virginia is if the Senate campaigns will affect anything. Both the Dems look good. Are there that many split ticket voters?
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Well, Connie Mack and George Allen are pretty wretched candidates, while Tim Kaine and Bill Nelson are pretty inoffensive. I think Democrats' resilience in Senate polls at least implies that they still have a strong grounds of support overall, even if Obama's numbers have gotten closer.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
The media should not even be giving a platform to West's statements. They are completely detached from anything the President was conveying with his comments its absurd that you would somehow position west's comment as a rebutal of the original statement. Fucking piece of shit media.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Not sure how Romney is still riding the wave of the first debate, especially after the last two plus the VP debate. Are Republicans really that energized?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Kusagari said:
That number is more impressive than the rest considering the other stuff on tv that night.
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In fairness, the Giants game was pretty much a blowout, even if it was a historic blowout. If you weren't a fan, not much reason to stay tuned in.
 
L

Lambtron

Unconfirmed Member
speculawyer said:
Yep. He's pretty crazy. He got booted out of the military for shooting a gun off right next to the head of a detainee. He thinks he is Mr. UberPatriot in a world filled with commies and Muzlimz under every rock.
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It depresses me that a piece of shit like him can get elected to Congress.
 
J

jbug617

Banned
Link said:
Not sure how Romney is still riding the wave of the first debate, especially after the last two plus the VP debate. Are Republicans really that energized?
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They really hate Obama. Most are not voting for Romney but voting against Obama.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Link said:
Not sure how Romney is still riding the wave of the first debate, especially after the last two plus the VP debate. Are Republicans really that energized?
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you could argue that after the DNC, and the 47% comments that Romney was polling much lower than he should have been.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
MiDNiGHTS said:
Still hasn't updated today though I'm predicting a large batch of Romney momentum coming in.
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I wouldn't be so sure. 538 accounts for state polls more than anything. Here's what we've seen today so far:

Connecticut (Rasmussen) - Obama 52 Romney 45
Connecticut (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53 Romney 40
Minnesota (Rasmussen) - Obama 51 Romney 46
Nevada (ARG) - Obama 49 Romney 47 (Last poll - Obama+7, pre-debate)
New Hampshire (ARG) - Romney 49 Obama 47 (Last poll - Romney+4)
North Dakota (Forum/Essman) - Romney 57 Obama 32

In short the only swing state polling we've gotten is from ARG who 538 doesn't regard very highly. Doubt we'll see much movement either way unless more comes out later.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
I wouldn't be so sure. 538 accounts for state polls more than anything. Here's what we've seen today so far:

Connecticut (Rasmussen) - Obama 52 Romney 45
Connecticut (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53 Romney 40
Minnesota (Rasmussen) - Obama 51 Romney 46
Nevada (ARG) - Obama 49 Romney 47 (Last poll - Obama+7, pre-debate)
New Hampshire (ARG) - Romney 49 Obama 47 (Last poll - Romney+4)
North Dakota (Forum/Essman) - Romney 57 Obama 32

In short the only swing state polling we've gotten is from ARG who 538 doesn't regard very highly. Doubt we'll see much movement either way unless more comes out later.
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I didn't catch that the previous NH ARG poll was even worse for Obama. So yeah, I'll predict a tiny slide. 69.x%, x more than 5.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
I wouldn't make definitive statements yet. I'm not saying Obama is doomed, can't win, etc. In fact just a few days ago I was positive on his chances

...but he needs a bounce or something. I thought he closed the deal last night, but will voters agree with me? That's the question that will determine this election.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
KHarvey16 said:
Someone bought like $18k worth for Romney and tanked the market. It's correcting now and whoever that was is out some cash.
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exactly. intrade was almost in lockstep with 538 for some time, and for good reason.

The fact that obama is trading lower than he should be thanks to that one trader means it's easy money for anyone interested in that market.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
I personally guarantee Obama will be below 67% in today's forecast. Also, the election prediction bet is still on.

I'd even take a permanent tag that forever shames me beyond just the avatar. Romney momentum never fails.
 
7

786110

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I wouldn't be so sure. 538 accounts for state polls more than anything. Here's what we've seen today so far:

Connecticut (Rasmussen) - Obama 52 Romney 45
Connecticut (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53 Romney 40
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Linda is trying to attach herself to Obama while Murphy is trying to attach her to Romney, so I guess CT is no longer in play :(
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/10/23/PK-obama-stays-ahead-just/

That is not all. YouGov has also conducted two large-scale surveys in 25 states for CBS News, one before the first TV debate and one afterwards. These covered all the battleground states, plus the largest states such as California, Texas and New York. The key point is that this was a true panel study. We questioned the same people twice. This allowed us to investigate what change, if any, took place at the level of individual voters, NOT by comparing results from different samples. Any change in the numbers in such panel studies reflects real changes by real voters. And our overall sample was much larger than normal. We polled almost 33,000 electors in September, and re-interviewed more than 25,000 of them after the first debate.

The message from this study was clear. The Romney bounce was tiny. Overall, YouGov found just a one-point narrowing of Obama’s lead.

Or rather, those were the published figures. Had we adjusted the raw data only for demographics, and treated the two polls as separate samples then we would have reported a five-point shift, from an Obama lead of 4% in these 25 states to a Romney lead of 1%.

However, when we compared the intentions of the people who completed both surveys, we found hardly any net movement. Those who backed Obama in September divided as follows after the first debate: Obama 93%, Romney 3%, undecided 4%. Romney’s September supporters divided: Obama 3%, Romney 94%, undecided 3%. (The modest numbers of those who did not take sides in September, but who did this month divided evenly between the two men.)

So we have a discrepancy between what we reported – only a tiny net movement after the first debate – with what we would have reported had we acted like most other pollsters.

Here’s the reason. Those who supported Romney in September were more likely than Obama supporters to respond to our follow-up survey after the first debate. The re-contact rate was 80% for Romney supporters and 74% for Obama supporters. That’s why the raw numbers – and the demographically-only adjusted numbers – for the post-debate poll appeared to tilt the whole contest towards Romney. Had we reported these, we would have been in line with most other pollsters.
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Very interesting read
 
M

Marvie_3

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
I wouldn't be so sure. 538 accounts for state polls more than anything. Here's what we've seen today so far:

Connecticut (Rasmussen) - Obama 52 Romney 45
Connecticut (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53 Romney 40
Minnesota (Rasmussen) - Obama 51 Romney 46
Nevada (ARG) - Obama 49 Romney 47 (Last poll - Obama+7, pre-debate)
New Hampshire (ARG) - Romney 49 Obama 47 (Last poll - Romney+4)
North Dakota (Forum/Essman) - Romney 57 Obama 32

In short the only swing state polling we've gotten is from ARG who 538 doesn't regard very highly. Doubt we'll see much movement either way unless more comes out later.
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BATTLEGROUND STATE
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I wouldn't make definitive statements yet. I'm not saying Obama is doomed, can't win, etc. In fact just a few days ago I was positive on his chances

...but he needs a bounce or something. I thought he closed the deal last night, but will voters agree with me? That's the question that will determine this election.
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Lol.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Marvie_3 said:
BATTLEGROUND STATE
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MOST REPUBLICAN POLL IN THE NATION SHOWS OBAMA LEAD

LEAN ROMNEY

FoxNewsLogo.jpg


polyh3dron said:
I just love that PD's suspicions about Barack and Michelle have been vindicated. Shit is fucking hilarious.
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He saw it in her eyes
 
P

Puddles

Banned
KHarvey16 said:
Someone bought like $18k worth for Romney and tanked the market. It's correcting now and whoever that was is out some cash.
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I wish I had waited one more day to buy Obama stock. I could have added nearly $700 to my margin. That's like a whole ipad. But I was expecting Obama shares to shoot up after the third debate.
 
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