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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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It is interesting, but I had been thinking about a 538-type site for a long time. I am a stats and numbers junkie and always thought it would be cool to do, but I am no follow-througher.

I am glad Nate does it, as I enjoy all of the numbers gaming, but proclaiming him as anything more than a malleable calculator is giving him too much credit.
Nonsense. It's one thing to say "pfft, I took statistics, shit is easy!"

It's another to

1) put in the work to actually be able to spit out the numbers.
and
2) put yourself out there and actually post the numbers to the public.
 
Either

|OT6| Return of the Jedi

or

|OT6| Silver is the new gold

have my vote.

My submission:

PolliGaf 2012 |OT6| The only poll that counts is on Election Day, or 538
 
Just for the record (have not followed Poligaf all the way) are you voting / supporting Romney? I hope so...hearing from the other side is interesting and well you know the other reason...

I'm voting for Obama

He sounds rather desperate and tired during this rally. Seems like he knows it's over
 
It is interesting, but I had been thinking about a 538-type site for a long time. I am a stats and numbers junkie and always thought it would be cool to do, but I am no follow-througher.

I am glad Nate does it, as I enjoy all of the numbers gaming, but proclaiming him as anything more than a malleable calculator is giving him too much credit.
His nowcast is just a Monte Carlo simulation of the adjusted polls. Not too hard.

But the projection model uses economic data and it takes a lot of work to parse through history to see what to use and what weights.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
I'm voting for Obama

He sounds rather desperate and tired during this rally. Seems like he knows it's over

Where is your final map, PD? You have a legitimate chance to go down in PoliGAF history tomorrow night, beating the predictions of odds makers in Vegas, Intrade, Silver Wang, and others.

I want to see your map.
 

FuturusX

Member
he's a troll.

Naturally - but what troll hat is he wearing? The troll that is supporting Obama but is convinced that he'll lose or the troll that is supporting Romney? Perhaps the troll that is supporting Hillary and still can't deal with the reality of the 08 primaries....
 

Gruco

Banned
Sick and tired of all this electoral math talk. Can't we focus on what's really important - who has the most momentums right now, Romney or Obama?
 
Another problem with the rally, and campaign in general: Obama hasn't offered anything new to the table. He's running on the 2008 platform he couldn't pass or didn't want to (end tax cuts for companies that ship jobs overseas!), plus the Jobs Act of last year. Literally nothing is new.

It's baffling that he hasn't adding things onto his plan. Why not propose a business equipment tax cut or something else that is concrete, something that can be passed, etc?
 

jbug617

Banned
A6_P6vTCcAAhYvf.jpg
 

FuturusX

Member
Another problem with the rally, and campaign in general: Obama hasn't offered anything new to the table. He's running on the 2008 platform he couldn't pass or didn't want to (end tax cuts for companies that ship jobs overseas!), plus the Jobs Act of last year. Literally nothing is new.

It's baffling that he hasn't adding things onto his plan. Why not propose a business equipment tax cut or something else that is concrete, something that can be passed, etc?

The night before the election...is the time for new ideas? You really are a Romney supporter...
 
Is this the Iowa rally? Impressive crowd....maybe the audio is just fucked up afterall...
Des Moines is a big city. They're all just passing by. In fact they're probably really annoyed they can't get to their destination because of the Obummer rally and will be voting Romney out of spite.
 

markatisu

Member
They are running ads non-stop this week, why can't the GOP and their affiliates ever cast someone of color?? Every single Romney had or Romney related ad stars someone white, usually a white woman or an old white man

Its 2012, damn
 
They are running ads non-stop this week, why can't the GOP and their affiliates ever cast someone of color?? Every single Romney had or Romney related ad stars someone white, usually a white woman or an old white man

Its 2012, damn

Because they are going for the white vote.
 
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